Can the Boom Continue?

[DrLan34]

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/10/cbre-houston-multifamily-market-performing.html

 

Houston has only 1,900 proposed units currently under construction for delivery in 2017, Holliday said. The lower levels of new construction should help right the supply-demand equation, he added.

 

“By the end of 2017, we will be approaching a state of equilibrium,” Holliday said. “It’s crystal clear the market will come into balance in 2018.”

 

[Urbannizer]

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/10/report-houston-condominiums-appreciating-faster.html

 

If you thought Houston home prices were skyrocketing, check out the city’s condominium market.

 

Houston’s condo market is outpacing the single-family housing market, according to a new report from Zillow Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ZG). The Seattle-based real estate company compared the condominium and housing markets in 33 major cities across the country and found that Houston has one of the hottest condo markets nationally — hotter even than markets like San Francisco.

[Triton]

Very excellent read from CBRE. Interesting take on multi-family projects.

 

 

 

There’s an appetite for all property types at a certain level. A grocery anchored shopping centers are in high demand. Investors feel these are low risk properties and a great buying opportunity. Fully-leased bulk warehouses are in high demand. Multifamily remains in great demand. We just got a quote on a portfolio of older, Class B apartments that was excellent. Office is getting more scrutiny now. Lenders really examine rent rolls to see exposure to energy companies.

 

http://realtynewsreport.com/2015/10/27/houston-is-no-place-for-vulture-funds-the-qa-with-john-fenoglio/

[LTAWACS]

As a Houstonian that has recently moved to the Detroit Metro area, it could be a lot worse trust me!

I never thought I would see as bad of a city and economic problems as Detroit currently is, what was I thinking moving here.

I'll be back home for good soon enough!

Why in the universe would u move up there to that urban wasteland?

[UtterlyUrban]

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/10/cbre-houston-multifamily-market-performing.html

Houston has only 1,900 proposed units currently under construction for delivery in 2017, Holliday said. The lower levels of new construction should help right the supply-demand equation, he added.

“By the end of 2017, we will be approaching a state of equilibrium,” Holliday said. “It’s crystal clear the market will come into balance in 2018.”

Apparently, this man can predict 3 years in the future.

The only thing that is "crystal clear" is that by 2018, oil prices will have stayed the same, doubled, tripled, been cut in half or been cut by three quarters. And, interest rates will be the same, up or down. Inflation will be the same, up or down. Employment will be the same, up or down. Global trade will be up, down, or the same and the dollar will be stronger, weaker, or about the same. Oh, and the national or local economy will be growing, shrinking, or about the same. All of those items impact the housing markets.

So, the only thing that is "crystal clear" three years from now is that it is impossible to tell what "equalibrium" will be established, if any.

[samagon]

Contact with aliens may or may not occur between now and then too. This will have a big impact.

[Dakota79]

Apparently, this man can predict 3 years in the future.

The only thing that is "crystal clear" is that by 2018, oil prices will have stayed the same, doubled, tripled, been cut in half or been cut by three quarters. And, interest rates will be the same, up or down. Inflation will be the same, up or down. Employment will be the same, up or down. Global trade will be up, down, or the same and the dollar will be stronger, weaker, or about the same. Oh, and the national or local economy will be growing, shrinking, or about the same. All of those items impact the housing markets.

So, the only thing that is "crystal clear" three years from now is that it is impossible to tell what "equalibrium" will be established, if any.

IMHO - I'm pretty sure in 2018 we will still have mega traffic and lots of potholes. But what do I know.

[Slick Vik]

More layoffs expected this quarter from noble energy and schlumberger and statoil and shell

[Subdude]

Note HERO discussion was moved to its own topic. 

Carry on.

[august948]

IMHO - I'm pretty sure in 2018 we will still have mega traffic and lots of potholes. But what do I know.

 

No kidding.  Anyone out there remember what happened to traffic congestion after the 80's oil bust? 

 

Reason I ask is rush hour traffic in the energy corridor seems the same or worse than it used to be even though we keep hearing about layoffs.  Did traffic congestion fall off a cliff after the 80's bust or is that a false indicator?

 

[Subdude]

No kidding.  Anyone out there remember what happened to traffic congestion after the 80's oil bust? 

 

Reason I ask is rush hour traffic in the energy corridor seems the same or worse than it used to be even though we keep hearing about layoffs.  Did traffic congestion fall off a cliff after the 80's bust or is that a false indicator?

 

 

I don't know if it fell off a cliff, but it clearly seemed to improve.  For one thing, the bust in the 1980s was massive compared to now, which is really just a slowdown.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the population actually briefly fell in the 1980s, which wouldn't be the case today.  Also, the city took advantage of the 1980s slowdown to build up infrastructure (anyone remember the contraflow lanes?).  That gave the city some congestion breathing room when things got better.  

 

I think the most that you will see now is that traffic might be marginally less than it would have otherwise been if the price of oil had stayed strong.

[UtterlyUrban]

Good article fro October 21st....... The catch is that it was written n 1985...... October 21, 1985....

http://www.nytimes.com/1985/10/22/us/energy-recession-ends-texas-population-boom.html

[Ross]

No kidding.  Anyone out there remember what happened to traffic congestion after the 80's oil bust? 

 

Reason I ask is rush hour traffic in the energy corridor seems the same or worse than it used to be even though we keep hearing about layoffs.  Did traffic congestion fall off a cliff after the 80's bust or is that a false indicator?

 

 

Keep in mind that I-10 was 2 lanes each way then, expanding to 3 in the latter part of the decade. Traffic was still bad, but it got better as all the folks from Michigan left (before the bust, it seemed like every other car had Michigan plates, as construction workers, etc headed down here for work)

 

As an aside, there was a situation (late 70's or early 80's) where Gulf Oil was accused of staging a stalled car on the Southwest Frwy to make traffic even worse for a commercial.

 

[cspwal]

Good article fro October 21st....... The catch is that it was written n 1985...... October 21, 1985....

http://www.nytimes.com/1985/10/22/us/energy-recession-ends-texas-population-boom.html

 

The last sentence though sounds about right

 

 

 

 ''if any city can pull itself out, Houston can.''

[samagon]

I don't know if it fell off a cliff, but it clearly seemed to improve.  For one thing, the bust in the 1980s was massive compared to now, which is really just a slowdown.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the population actually briefly fell in the 1980s, which wouldn't be the case today.  Also, the city took advantage of the 1980s slowdown to build up infrastructure (anyone remember the contraflow lanes?).  That gave the city some congestion breathing room when things got better.  

 

I think the most that you will see now is that traffic might be marginally less than it would have otherwise been if the price of oil had stayed strong.

 

from the houston freeways book, there were a number of freeways that were canceled (or suspended indefinitely) as a direct result of the 80s downturn.

 

the spur over by UH was supposed to be a freeway going out to pearland that was canceled.

 

hardy tollroad I think was scaled back, and they're only just extending it to downtown.

[Houston19514]

Occidental plans to relocate up to 100 employees from Dallas to Houston.

[IronTiger]

from the houston freeways book, there were a number of freeways that were canceled (or suspended indefinitely) as a direct result of the 80s downturn.

 

the spur over by UH was supposed to be a freeway going out to pearland that was canceled.

 

hardy tollroad I think was scaled back, and they're only just extending it to downtown.

 

I think TX-35 is in the books still, just no funding or immediate plans (the 225 extension was permanently canned though).

 

Hardy Toll Road was originally been proposed to go downtown, is that "only now just extending it to downtown"?

[Houston19514]

from the houston freeways book, there were a number of freeways that were canceled (or suspended indefinitely) as a direct result of the 80s downturn.

 

the spur over by UH was supposed to be a freeway going out to pearland that was canceled.

 

hardy tollroad I think was scaled back, and they're only just extending it to downtown.

 

Hardy was not scaled back.  The extension into downtown was not part of the plan.  From Houston Freeways:  "The recommended feasible section was a 21.6-mile (34.6 km) segment from Loop 610 to IH 45 near the Harris-Montgomery County line. At the south end the report recommended terminating the tollway at Loop 610 due to the high number of displacements and high cost of extending the facility into downtown, which was estimated at $115 million in 1982, approximately 204 million in 2003 dollars. The report concluded that the existing freeways and streets between downtown and Loop 610 would be adequate to handle the traffic."

[Slick Vik]

from the houston freeways book, there were a number of freeways that were canceled (or suspended indefinitely) as a direct result of the 80s downturn.

the spur over by UH was supposed to be a freeway going out to pearland that was canceled.

hardy tollroad I think was scaled back, and they're only just extending it to downtown.

Good

[august948]

Good

 

It is a good thing they are extending the Hardy toll road.  Glad we agree on that.

 

Now they just need to rebuild the rest of the highways and toll roads on the Katy Freeway model and institute point to point commuter bus service along all of them.

 

[plumber2]

Keep in mind that I-10 was 2 lanes each way then, expanding to 3 in the latter part of the decade. Traffic was still bad, but it got better as all the folks from Michigan left (before the bust, it seemed like every other car had Michigan plates, as construction workers, etc headed down here for work)

 

As an aside, there was a situation (late 70's or early 80's) where Gulf Oil was accused of staging a stalled car on the Southwest Frwy to make traffic even worse for a commercial.

 

One of those folks from Michigan remained behind in Houston and got himself elected the the U.S. Congress and became a huge embarrassment to us all. Steve Stockman!

[DrLan34]

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/11/how-houston-can-avoid-a-negative-moodys-downgrade.html

 

But earlier this month, the financial advisory firm issued a report that, in summation, breaks down how the city’s economy has remained resilient despite its $3.2 billion pension obligation. Financial experts said the report may have been too favorable to the state of Houston's economy, which is still being weighed down by its massive pension bloat.

 

"(The report) continues to confuse the region’s performance with the city's performance," Noteware said. "All of these positive economic indicators are region-based, and they don’t apply to the city. (It is) measuring the wrong thing. That’s so fundamental, it’s almost like this report is trying to be a shill and prop Houston up inappropriately."

[curbur]

Comerica Bank: Greater Houston To Lose At Least 30,000 More Jobs By Summer 2016
 

[samagon]

 

 

Dye says there is one factor that will help buffer Houston from the worst effects of the energy downturn. The sheer number of people that have moved to the region in recent years create an increased demand for services, particularly education and health care.

 

while 30,000 jobs in Houston is tough, the last paragraph brings some context of hope. the question is, how many? 

[UtterlyUrban]

So, the city will lose - bunch of engineering, professional, and high paying technical jobs but that effect will be buffered by the need for lower wage services and education jobs?

Is that what I am reading?

I think that a bucket of pain is going to start in 2016 --- if oil stays where it is or goes lower...... That will be about a year from the "collapse" in prices and enough time for the effects to be felt.

[astros148]

such a bogus statement, like healthcare jobs can replace energy jobs. You need certifications and or schooling to make any real money in the healthcare industry, its not if someone who was making 80k with a engineering degree can move to healthcare and make that type of money. such bullshit

[BigFootsSocks]

Wow...does someone want to explain it to him?

[brijonmang]

Wow...does someone want to explain it to him?

Translation: more Hampton Inns for downtown!

[mollusk]

Beige EIFS can be painted, and probably eventually will be - just think of the various avocado green buildings we used to have.

[BeerNut]

such a bogus statement, like healthcare jobs can replace energy jobs. You need certifications and or schooling to make any real money in the healthcare industry, its not if someone who was making 80k with a engineering degree can move to healthcare and make that type of money. such bullshit

 

A bigger factor is all of the 60k+ O&G jobs that don't require a college education.  These individuals don't have a degree that is possibly transferable to another industry.