samagon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 as break even points for extraction get lower, then expansion will occur. it was only 2 years ago when the BE for shale was over $80. The article I was looking for was discussing the advancements in drilling that have been forced because of the price drop. It showed statistics that what took 20 days to drill now can be done in 2 days. That's not great for roughnecks, but from an efficiency standpoint, that's amazing. So right now, prices are at $30, Maybe next year they're at $60, no it's not the $90-100 we saw in 2014 and previous, but if $30 is the new BE, then they'll be doing better than they were when oil was $100/bbl and it cost $80 to extract. They'll make $30/bbl instead of $20, and we'll be back on an expansionary path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tumbleweed_Tx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Oil prices are going to stay low. The economic illiterate in the white house just proposed a $10/barrel tax on crude to finance alternative energy projects. Get the sheeple used to higher priced, then when they drop, bring them back up via any means necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The economic illiterate in the white house just proposed a $10/barrel tax on crude to finance alternative energy projects. Which isn't going to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Which isn't going to pass.And the tax is only on imported barrels.I do think Texas should raise the gas tax to pay for roads while prices are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Which isn't going to pass. which is really unfortunate. as it is a tax on imported oil only, locally produced oil would benefit. If oil is selling for $30, the Saudis would either need to drop the price of their oil to $20 to stay competitive, or over night, the US producers could sell their oil on US shores for $40 and still have a price competitive with imports. This plus lifting the export ban would be really great, although at that point, what incentive is there to selling abroad when you have a $10 advantage in sales locally? I'm no Obama fanboi, but as ideas go, this is really top notch. Congress would be idiots to not pass it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cspwal Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And the tax is only on imported barrels.I do think Texas should raise the gas tax to pay for roads while prices are low. Wouldn't that be a tariff, not a tax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollusk Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 which is really unfortunate. as it is a tax on imported oil only, locally produced oil would benefit. If oil is selling for $30, the Saudis would either need to drop the price of their oil to $20 to stay competitive, or over night, the US producers could sell their oil on US shores for $40 and still have a price competitive with imports. This plus lifting the export ban would be really great, although at that point, what incentive is there to selling abroad when you have a $10 advantage in sales locally? I'm no Obama fanboi, but as ideas go, this is really top notch. Congress would be idiots to not pass it. Which is why that idea will be strangled in its crib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So I was doing more reading on this potential $10 tax, some articles are saying it's only on imported (tariff essentially, as cspwal mentioned), some are saying, it's just a $10 tax on all oil produced and sold in USA. If it's just a tax on all oil, I don't care whether it passes or not. People are still going to complain when gas is expensive, and still going to cheer when it drops in price a little bit. It's been over 25 years since the nation raised the gas tax, and if this is the way to do it, then go for it. If it's a tariff, yeah, congress are a bunch of idiots. edit: here's a fun article, with another point to consider.. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/08/obamas-oil-tax-plan-wont-work-commentary.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Hearing more layoff announcements coming this week, especially in marine transportation, diesel engine services, and engineering sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTiger Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There's talk of another major global downturn/depression, and oil's crash (not just in Houston, but also Venezuela, Saudi Arabia) is part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ehhh, okay, let's go macro. US fundamentals are pretty strong, Europe is stagnant, India is growing, and Chinese growth is slowing. Really don't see a depression heading our way... just a continuation of slow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I would say the US economy is relatively strong right now. It is certainly in the best shape it's been since before the financial crisis. A recession is inevitable at some point of course, but right now there really aren't any strong indicators on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I would say the US economy is relatively strong right now. It is certainly in the best shape it's been since before the financial crisis. A recession is inevitable at some point of course, but right now there really aren't any strong indicators on the horizon. Exactly. Think most Americans would say the economy is strong too if wage growth substantially improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTiger Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I've been on another forum with people freaking out and worries of private credit ending, or stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montrose1100 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/Economy_at_a_Glance.pdf Just a look at what we pretty much already know. The numbers are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brijonmang Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Will the freezing of production help Houston? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cspwal Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Will the freezing of production help Houston? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks Not sure, but I think it means that Saudi Arabia lost the price war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like the data I've been seeing for a couple of months now is starting to hit the local news: http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2016/02/grim-outlook-predicted-for-this-houston-submarket.html The study did not go as far to call it a recession, noting that Houston did see a net jobs increase from December 2014 to December 2015; however, Gilmer did predict a moderate recession over the next two years due to the drilling downturn. I too forecasted a recession later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Devon energy just dropped a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Let the debt stacking begin. I keep saying this and I'll say it again, we're going to see a lot of bankruptcies here in Houston. Within its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report, Houston-based Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: UPL) disclosed its total outstanding debt was more than $3 billion and it's looking for restructuring options. The company said it is “evaluating a variety of strategic alternatives related to its capital structure” and has engaged Kirkland & Ellis LLP as its legal adviser and Rothschild and Petrie Partners as its financial advisers. http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2016/02/houston-natural-gas-company-struggles-with-debt.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollusk Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Let the debt stacking begin. I keep saying this and I'll say it again, we're going to see a lot of bankruptcies here in Houston. http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2016/02/houston-natural-gas-company-struggles-with-debt.html It would be far happier if it wasn't so, but it sounds like you are correct, good Sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian0123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What neighborhoods/areas do you all think will be most impacted which are zoned to good schools? Curious if there will be buying opportunity to rent out later in some of these impacted areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 the boom is dead. long live the boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 There's this: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/25/mansion-sales-and-discount-dining-oil-rout-hits-houstons-rich.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFootsSocks Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Idk, there was a pretty big gas leak at Capitol/Hamilton that screwed up the Green/Purple lines from running downtown. A misplaced cigarette might bring us another one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgriff Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'm seeing downstream and chemical projects canceled now. Not because of oil prices but because of the terrible global economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Fortune Magazine wrote an articles hat I read yesterday. Not favorable. While it ended on a bit of a high note (highlighting a bit of job growth last year), the thrust of the article was that pain is here and is building. It highlights a few anecdotal cases of the very wealthy cutting back spending and also the 9% drop in home prices for the " River Oaks" set.I also read yesterday that one of the oilfield service companies is laying off 5,000 people (8% of workforce).From the beginning of this thread I have been a hawk. Many pushed back on me and others who were similarly hawkish. The pain takes time to be felt. It doesn't happen right away. 18 months into this oil price collapse, the real pain is just starting. If oil does not start to climb, the real pain Will get worse, much worse. I feel that there will be a raft of bankruptcies coming and many more layoffs coming at firms who are still solvent but trying to stay that way.Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'm seeing downstream and chemical projects canceled now. Not because of oil prices but because of the terrible global economy. Same. Was earlier forecasting that to be the bright spot of Houston, but that's going down as well. If there's anything left for Houston now, it's still likely to be the healthcare market and to a much lesser extent, aerospace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFootsSocks Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Boeing has an office for their crew capsule in Houston, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollusk Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I have a friend who works for Boeing down at JSC. They are not feeling the pain of the oil market, however, Congress can make them pretty nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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