Slick Vik Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 When then?Matter of time if oil prices stay this low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placoors Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Interesting article from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21646221-americas-fastest-growing-metropolis-faces-up-cheaper-oil-life-sprawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 This sounds suboptimal: The crash in oil prices is hammering the Texas economy. The latest manufacturing outlook index from the Dallas Fed plunged again in March, to -17.4 from -11.2 in February, indicating deteriorating business conditions in the state.Expectations were for the index to show a reading of -9.But the most important part of this report is the commentary from Texas business leaders, who have given an on-the-ground picture of how the decline in oil prices is affecting one of the country's economies most driven by oil. In March the tune didn't change, as it sounds as if things are still tough in Texas. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dallas-fed-manufacturing-report-march-30-2015-3#ixzz3VyceeK8k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I know no one will like me saying this but we may be hit by a double whammy. Forget the Texas economy, there are signs in the U.S. economy of a slight slowdown as seen in the trade markets, construction, and consumer spending as well. Also, with the potential of Iran coming back online in the oil market, we may see a further decrease in the price of oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I know no one will like me saying this but we may be hit by a double whammy. Forget the Texas economy, there are signs in the U.S. economy of a slight slowdown as seen in the trade markets, construction, and consumer spending as well. Also, with the potential of Iran coming back online in the oil market, we may see a further decrease in the price of oil.Yep.Folks, there is a full-on conflagration in the Middle East right now and oil hasn't moved. A decade ago, oil would have surged on the uncertainty. The fact that it really hasn't moved much should make you shiver.Times, they are a'changing' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparrow Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 While cheap oil may not be good for those in that sector of the economy, how many folks really want to see gas at +$4 a gallon? Cheap oil is great for the auto industry. Drive baby, drive. Cheap oil is great for the housing industry... and retail... and discretionary incomes in general. Watch what you wish for when you hope for higher oil prices... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 While cheap oil may not be good for those in that sector of the economy, how many folks really want to see gas at +$4 a gallon? Cheap oil is great for the auto industry. Drive baby, drive. Cheap oil is great for the housing industry... and retail... and discretionary incomes in general.Watch what you wish for when you hope for higher oil prices...Agreed.And that was Triton's point. The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing DESPITE having oils prices less than half of a year ago. That is the double whammy he is speaking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 isn't most of the slowdown thanks to the dollar being as strong as it is (and has been)? not only are imported good cheaper in America, but American goods are more expensive overseas as well. and then the cold weather was supposed to have been a reason for a slower 1st quarter in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomHero Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/breaking-ground/2015/04/energy-corridor-office-space-doing-better-than.html What's this? The sky isn't falling? The tone of the article suggests that HBJ can hardly comprehend that end of days hasn't arrived yet as they have been predicting for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgriff Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 We had a big project cancelled this week. About 100 people in Houston will lose their jobs. We'll also be exiting a building in the energy corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTAWACS Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Not good. Which building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 It is still too soon to know what the impacts will be of $50 oil (assuming it stays here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I've been told journalists have been "encouraged" to paint the picture rosier than it really is by the real estate and commercial real estate market, it's "in their best interests" to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It seems that apartment discounting in some sub-markets has started. Also, more units were delivered in 2014 than absorbed?http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/04/rent-concessions-hit-houston-apartment-market.html?page=all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The most important quote from that article is the last one: Rent concessions likely won't have a major impact on Houston's multifamily market, Epstein said. Apartment rents have skyrocketed so much over the past few years that even with the concessions, rents are still higher than what developers and property managers were expecting three or four years ago, he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pragmatist Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Here's an interview with Patrick Jankowski from the Greater Houston Partnership: http://www.thestreet.com/video/13118648/low-oil-prices-leads-to-job-cuts-in-houston-more-on-the-way.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTAWACS Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 What's the jist of the interview? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 What's the jist of the interview?1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.3) it won't be as bad as the 80's4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Separately, according to an article on Swamplot, skyhouse is 45% full and "on track" with their occupancy projections. They have, however, initiated a rent concession program to attract new renters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgriff Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Edit: I probably said too much again. The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.3) it won't be as bad as the 80's4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything? He also said that while they expect the energy sector to lose more jobs, they still expect overall employment growth in Houston. And, not only have we not overbuilt housing, housing is still in short supply... only a 2 1/2 month supply on the market. In related news, today's Wall Street Journal has an article about Houston's Housing Market Holding Up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJVilla Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Edit: I probably said too much again. The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston. Energy jobs going to China - this could cover a wide spectrum under "energy" but I would guess these are commodity type manufacturing focus or did I miss something? I doubt Exxon and Shell are moving upstream jobs to China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgriff Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range.It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. Teams of engineers can be anywhere given the global scope of many of these energy companies. Has there already been a long term trend in the oil business to offshore engineering? If so, I can see that this "bust" might accelerate that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luminare Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around. This is purely the power of hindsight I'm sure if we had this power before many wouldn't have had paid $100 for a boxing fight lol Meanwhile they would then make sure not to do layoffs. They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on. Could they have been a little more confident in the future...maybe but remember this was when the prevailing theory was that they sky was failing and that $35 a barrel oil was a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmitch94 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Don't get your hopes up too soon even with prices creeping back up companies are still announcing layoffs as recent as this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timoric Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on. Well, if they don't depart from someplace like San Francisco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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