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Can the Boom Continue?


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I hope construction doesn't stop, slow down, maybe it can do that, but for the last few years Houston has been growing by over 100k people per year, the number of housing units coming on line, while I don't have more than my finger in the wind, hasn't kept up with that demand. Even if the city grows by 0 people this year and next, they still need to build.

 

Oil prices be damned, we have a lack of housing in Houston and there are two things that can fix that, build, or people need to leave.

 

The latter may happen as a result of oil prices, but so far most of the oil companies are reducing or stopping hiring, not laying off, and even if they do lay off, will it be at a rate that exceeds the number of people moving here?

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Yeah, one thing some people aren't remembering from the 1980s was the collapse of the S&L banks. Again, because of the diversification of Houston and other features, I think probably the worst of the downturn will be cancellation of big projects. Personally, I'd like to see slowdown in Inner Loop townhomes. It's like an invasive species.

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Sure, things look threatening now, but what would happen if oil went up to $200 a barrel?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26/opec-s-el-badri-sees-200-oil-possible-with-lack-of-investment.html

:lol:

 

 

 

Prices as high as $200 probably won’t happen because “a move back above $100 will bring the shale oil drillers out in force as they can relatively quickly react to rising prices.”

toxtethogrady I do enjoy your posts on here and particularly on SSP.

 

"More companies looking Downtown may fuel new office building demand (or something along those lines)."

Followed by a link with 1 company looking for +/- 30,000sqft. ;)

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BP will be freezing all pay worldwide this year and then I read this:

 

Weinstein said there's talk that Irving-based Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) or another major oil company could buy British Petroleum.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/2015/01/who-wins-in-the-18b-energy-transfer-partners-deal.html?page=all

 

Sounds like BP is in major trouble, and it has been with its court battles, but especially now with oil as low as it is.

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HOUSTON – Petroleum producers took 94 oil-drilling rigs off the market in the United States this week as sub-$50 oil continued to wreak havoc on the oil industry, Baker Hughes reported Friday.

It was the biggest one-week decline for oil rigs since 1987, the earliest year of Baker Hughes data available. That year, the oil industry had faced another oil bust that left hundreds of rigs idle or repossessed by banks, which sold them for scrap.

This week’s drop left 1,223 oil units up, the lowest number in three years.

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/01/30/oil-rig-count-falls-by-94-in-biggest-drop-since-1987/

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Its safe to say the boom is over.  So to answer the thread question - no.  But, I don't think its all doom and gloom like people are saying.  Bad for the oil field production people but things could pick-up quickly unless the national economy tanks.

 

I don't think we're looking at a repeat of the 1980s crash.  At least we should hope not!  Kiss any transit or livability projects good bye if that happens.

 

I think the better discussion to have is:  How else should Houston diversify its economy following the latest slump in the oil patch?

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