Downtown Condominium Market

[buildingunbuildingrebuilding]

The downtown condo market is really overrated- there are very few sold each year. Houston is not a great condo town in any sense, but to the extent that condos work in Houston the Galleria market is far stronger. We all talk about walkable environment, you really can get that in parts of Uptown- groceries, restaurants, bars, shopping, etc. I know the traffic stinks and there are other drawbacks, but it also offers far more than downtown to the average resident.

[musicman]

I'm not actually in the market of buying right now. I live in Albuquerque and look to move back to Houston within a year or two. Even then I won't be buying immediately. My salary certainly doesn't allow me to buy a condo DT right now. At the same time, I wouldn't expect the quantity of condos to go up within one to three years, thats why I ask loosely if it's a good time to buy "now" or later(5-10 years).

And really I'm asking these questions generally and to educate myself for the future. BTW, do y'all know the lowest price for a nice/decent condo in the DT area, or at least the range for a low end one?

So why wouldn't you expect the quantity of condos to increase?

[lockmat]

So why wouldn't you expect the quantity of condos to increase?

Not within three years, and not enough to make a huge difference. And I'm talking about in DT. I mean, a few more might pop up, but not drastically. I just don't expect it after talking about these things on here for the past few months and seeing and realizing how long things like that take to come to fruition.

I could be wrong, that's just what I think from looking at the past.

[musicman]

Not within three years, and not enough to make a huge difference. And I'm talking about in DT. I mean, a few more might pop up, but not drastically. I just don't expect it after talking about these things on here for the past few months and seeing and realizing how long things like that take to come to fruition.

I could be wrong, that's just what I think from looking at the past.

i think you can count on a slow steady increase not no increase in quantity in 1-3 yrs.

[lockmat]

i think you can count on a slow steady increase not no increase in quantity in 1-3 yrs.

Yeah, that's what I was kind of thinking. So I guess price won't fluctuate too much from year to year, no?

[musicman]

Yeah, that's what I was kind of thinking. So I guess price won't fluctuate too much from year to year, no?

prices have also been steadily increasing throughout houston

[TheNiche]

Yeah, that's what I was kind of thinking. So I guess price won't fluctuate too much from year to year, no?

On the contrary, short-term prices are subject to significant volatility, and can be influenced by changes in the:

Local economy (job creation, wage growth)

Cost of construction (labor, materials)

Expenses (insurance costs, maintenance costs, repairs from flood, fire, or other disasters, etc.)

Barriers or incentives to entry from government regulation or subsidy

Consumer tastes

Locational amenities

In the long term, the trends that I described in my previous post hold to be more true.

[HtownWxBoy]

I was just wondering if it would be cheaper to buy a condo DT now or later.

My guess... it would be cheaper to buy in DT now.

[lockmat]

This is about a year old, and seems to be the same guy from Mosaic, but it's an interesting video that I thought relevant to this conversation.

Edited September 7, 2007 by lockmat

[tierwestah]

Does anyone have info on what the current downtown population is of Houston right now? I've been trying my best to google the information but I can't find any source that gives me a solid answer. Any info appreciated. Thanks

tier

[ToryGattis]

I once heard they had a goal of 10,000, but were quite a long way from it.

OK, here we go. 4,600. See here.

[lockmat]

So based off projections, maybe it'll get to 10k in as little as two or three more years?

[musicman]

So based off projections, maybe it'll get to 10k in as little as two or three more years?

what projections are you referring to?

[tierwestah]

the downtown might actually be in the 6,000s now because that was the population in 2006. So i take it there's no recent estimates yet.

[jayshoota]

I once heard they had a goal of 10,000, but were quite a long way from it.

OK, here we go. 4,600. See here.

4,599. I moved last weekend from downtown to the museum district...lol. (sorry, pretty bad I know...)

[Jeebus]

the downtown might actually be in the 6,000s now because that was the population in 2006. So i take it there's no recent estimates yet.

Only if there has been new residential open up since then. Has that been the case?

[TheNiche]

Only if there has been new residential open up since then. Has that been the case?

There haven't been any rental units come to market for a while, and if there's been any new supply at all, it would have to have been condos done on a small scale.

Marvy's project is under construction, and that'll add 346 new units. Assuming 95% occupancy and 1.5 persons per unit (probably reasonable since they're all one- and two-bedroom units), that'll be just shy of another 500 new downtown residents. Some of these may be corporate units for large accounting or law firms, and I think that leased occupancy on these may exceed what is physically occupied from week to week, though.

Although it is possible that Marvy's project could do exceptionally well, prove up rents on new residential highrises, and kick-start a wave of downtown apartments, I consider that scenario to be fairly unlikely. And since when Marvy acquired the land, the downtown office market has really taken off, causing land prices to soar in a way that eliminates a lot of residential sites from the consideration.

Edited April 30, 2008 by TheNiche

[Original Timmy Chan's]

So based off projections, maybe it'll get to 10k in as little as two or three more years?

Based on the fact that it's taken us 172 years to get 4,600 residents downtown, I predict it will be November of 2381 AD before we hit 10,000 downtown residents.

$0.02

[Jax]

Based on the fact that it's taken us 172 years to get 4,600 residents downtown, I predict it will be November of 2381 AD before we hit 10,000 downtown residents.

I imagine there used to be more than 4,600 residents at one time in those 172 years though... right? It's not like the population has been steadily rising for 172 years.

[Jeebus]

I imagine there used to be more than 4,600 residents at one time in those 172 years though... right? It's not like the population has been steadily rising for 172 years.

Possibly not. As you go backwards in time and replace high-rise residencies with low-rise and even single family dwellings, the number would probably still decrease.

[TheNiche]

Possibly not. As you go backwards in time and replace high-rise residencies with low-rise and even single family dwellings, the number would probably still decrease.

The modern day representation of downtown Houston (with freeways defining its boundaries) is most geographically equivalent in terms of gridded land area with that of small towns. Comparing like geographies at different stages of development offers insight as to what the population of a 19th century version of our conception of downtown Houston might've been. Note that all of these are county seats, just like Houston was.

Columbus, TX (3,926)

Downtown Houston, TX (aprox. 4,600)

La Grange, TX (4,645)

Hearne, TX (4,690)

Cameron, TX (5,855)

Navasota, TX (7,378)

In conclusion, I believe it entirely plausible that Houston's population exceeded today's levels at some point in history. Moreover, considering that average household size has declined precipitously in the 20th century, it is possible that downtown Houston would've eclipsed any of these towns, even surpassing the modern goal of 10,000 residents.

[NewMND]

What is downtown's daytime population? Is it over 100,000?

[MidtownCoog]

Has to be. But most are CHUD. You'd never realize it.

Downtown is boring. I have consultants that spend weekends in downtown Houston. They like the city but can't stand downtown.

Nothing to do at all they say.

Edited May 1, 2008 by MidtownCoog

[TheNiche]

What is downtown's daytime population? Is it over 100,000?

Somewhere just north of 150,000, I do believe.

[H-Town Man]

The modern day representation of downtown Houston (with freeways defining its boundaries) is most geographically equivalent in terms of gridded land area with that of small towns. Comparing like geographies at different stages of development offers insight as to what the population of a 19th century version of our conception of downtown Houston might've been. Note that all of these are county seats, just like Houston was.

Columbus, TX (3,926)

Downtown Houston, TX (aprox. 4,600)

La Grange, TX (4,645)

Hearne, TX (4,690)

Cameron, TX (5,855)

Navasota, TX (7,378)

In conclusion, I believe it entirely plausible that Houston's population exceeded today's levels at some point in history. Moreover, considering that average household size has declined precipitously in the 20th century, it is possible that downtown Houston would've eclipsed any of these towns, even surpassing the modern goal of 10,000 residents.

I've spent time in most of those towns, and they all cover a much larger land area than our downtown alone does. Even towns like Flatonia (1,300) and Moulton (900) cover a larger gridded land area than our downtown.

[woolie]

I live like 5 blocks outside the CBD. Much nicer than actually in the CBD.

[TheNiche]

I've spent time in most of those towns, and they all cover a much larger land area than our downtown alone does. Even towns like Flatonia (1,300) and Moulton (900) cover a larger gridded land area than our downtown.

All the maps I linked to were shown in the same scale so as to make comparisons between downtown Houston and those towns easier to think about. And I did check city-data.com to ensure that city limits more or less conformed to the street grid.

True, there are smaller towns that have much lower density, but I would suspect that Houston was always more happening than Flatonia, even back in the day. I mean, we started out as the capitol of a nation, the seat of a county, and along a navigable body of water. Flatonia...Moulton...not so much.

[roadrunner]

I also work with consultants and it really is tough to do anything downtown. Especially the east side. We rotate between the only 3-4 restaurants down there everyday for lunch or dinner. It gets old. They stay out in Uptown and like the area a lot.

Needless to say, I'm very excited for the Pavilions to open.

[desirous]

I am contributing to downtown population.

Could never stand Uptown. People go there to drink, and then have to drive home.

[TheNiche]

Could never stand Uptown. People go there to drink, and then have to drive home.

Uptown's residential population is greater than downtown's, though. Home is closer. Uptown also has fewer one-way streets, which drunks seem to have more difficulty figuring out, and less confusing access in general.

I can't stand Uptown either, personally, but drunks aren't the reason why. Way the hell to pretentious and snob-ridden.

Edited May 4, 2008 by TheNiche