Texas Central Project

[Houston19514]

21 hours ago, Amlaham said:

A little off topic, but I believe a lot of other big cities have adopted incentives for big companies to persuade employees to use trains/ public transportation when traveling home/ offices! The incentives even includes discounting gym memberships within the immediate area to push more employees to stay local and not drive if they don't have to. I think Chicago just passed something like that. Maybe one day we'll get there (but I doubt it)

I think what Chicago "offers" is merely the federal (IRS) allowing pre-tax payroll deductions of up to $300 per month to be used for transit.  The same program is available in Houston.

[Ross]

47 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

I think what Chicago "offers" is merely the federal (IRS) allowing pre-tax payroll deductions of up to $300 per month to be used for transit.  The same program is available in Houston.

Yep. I used that when I was in a van pool.

[Amlaham]

1 hour ago, Houston19514 said:

I think what Chicago "offers" is merely the federal (IRS) allowing pre-tax payroll deductions of up to $300 per month to be used for transit.  The same program is available in Houston.

https://chi.streetsblog.org/2023/06/20/chicago-deploys-its-first-tdm-requirements-for-new-construction-in-rail-station-tod-areas

https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/cdot/CDOTPRC/TDM Strategies 6.16.23.pdf

This is what i'm referring too, its related to a "Connected Communities Ordinance" in Chicago. It has to do with how new buildings are constructed, eliminating free parking for employees, there's more information in that link above. It doesn't sound like they're just manicuring a package thats merely something the IRS offers. It's obviously much more than that. 

[Houston19514]

12 minutes ago, Amlaham said:

https://chi.streetsblog.org/2023/06/20/chicago-deploys-its-first-tdm-requirements-for-new-construction-in-rail-station-tod-areas

https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/cdot/CDOTPRC/TDM Strategies 6.16.23.pdf

This is what i'm referring too, its related to a "Connected Communities Ordinance" in Chicago. It has to do with how new buildings are constructed, eliminating free parking for employees, there's more information in that link above. It doesn't sound like they're just manicuring a package thats merely something the IRS offers. It's obviously much more than that. 

After a quick perusal of your linked articles and a little Googling, I have not found any "incentives for big companies to persuade employees to use trains/ public transportation when traveling home/ offices!"  They might be buried in there somewhere, but I couldn't find them.  Interestingly, the StreetBlog article you linked tells us:  "Worth noting: One major way to reduce single-occupancy vehicle trips is not having on-site parking, which the Connected Communities ordinance did not address for non-residential uses, allowing them to still have an unlimited amount of on-site car parking outside of the D zoning districts."

A lot of what the Connected Communities ordinance does looks pretty similar to Houston's TOD Development ordinance. 

[samagon]

I was a MOP at a few very large publicly traded companies.

I learned enough about HR while in this role, if a company of a large enough size does business in multiple states, they default everyone to following the rules for the state that requires the best benefits.

so if the business has an office in NY state (for instance), then even in Houston, they offer the same benefits as are required in NY state. 

there's nothing that says a company has to do this, but at some point they want to protect themselves from lawyering, so they protect themselves like that. so if NY state offers an allowance for people to take public transit, they are going to give the same offer to people in Houston office.

maybe, or maybe not related to that Chicago thing, but yeah, it's one of the potential benefits of working for a huge mega corp, you will get additional benefits that are obscure/not available for a small Houston business.

[BeerNut]

I could see some companies requiring people to take the train between Houston and DFW for work.  My company requires train travel vs flying unless it's over a certain number of hours for Europe.  They also won't allow you to drive or take your personal vehicle if it's over certain number of miles in the US.  I'm sure if this route gets built they would require people to take train based on safety and on time performance...cost wouldn't be the determining factor because we already have people that fly from HOU-DFW/DAL for work.

[BeerNut]

Texas congressmen push to stop funding for Houston-Dallas bullet train

Quote

Just a few weeks after Amtrak and Texas Central Railroad announced a collaboration to build the high-speed rail from Houston to Dallas, U.S. Congressmen Rep. Jake Ellzey and Rep. Michael McCaul are asking the Department of Transportation to deny federal funding for the project.

 

[JBTX]

1 hour ago, BeerNut said:

Texas congressmen push to stop funding for Houston-Dallas bullet train

 

I wonder what McCaul's beef with Texas Central is? Probably that it doesn't go through his Houston-Austin district...

[BeerNut]

31 minutes ago, JBTX said:

I wonder what McCaul's beef with Texas Central is? Probably that it doesn't go through his Houston-Austin district...

I'm sure I could string a few R buzz words together as to why he's against trains.

[JClark54]

1 hour ago, JBTX said:

I wonder what McCaul's beef with Texas Central is? Probably that it doesn't go through his Houston-Austin district...

McCaul and Ellzey have lengthy histories opposing passenger rail, including in their districts. They voted against the initial TCR alignment and backed landowner suits against the TCR. TCR aside, McCaul has voted against Amtrak's conventional network in Texas, which exists by utilizing freight railroad lines through trackage rights agreements. Ellzey has voiced support for Union Pacific's efforts to invalidate trackage rights agreements that support Amtrak's Texas Eagle and Sunset Limited services.  

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by JClark54

[Houston19514]

2 hours ago, JBTX said:

I wonder what McCaul's beef with Texas Central is? Probably that it doesn't go through his Houston-Austin district...

But it does go through his district...

[samagon]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:07 PM, BeerNut said:

I'm sure I could string a few R buzz words together as to why he's against trains.

or look at his campaign contributors, that has more to do with it than which side of the aisle he sits.

[Ross]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:07 PM, BeerNut said:

I'm sure I could string a few R buzz words together as to why he's against trains.

Socialism! Communism!

[IWantTransit555]

Does anyone know how to convince R's to support trains?

[hindesky]

11 hours ago, IWantTransit555 said:

Does anyone know how to convince R's to support trains?

Cash money under the table in a large manila envelope should do the trick.

[cspwal]

Or Texas central can just renovate their kitchens

[samagon]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:16 PM, IWantTransit555 said:

Does anyone know how to convince R's to support trains?

campaign contributions ensures votes.

[MaxConcrete]

On November 17, Texas Central provided the H-GAC TPC a status update about the high speed rail project between Houston and Dallas. There was no "new" news, but a few tidbits of interest.

* The official status (previously known) is that Texas Central is cooperating with Amtrak "seeking opportunities to advance planning and analysis work associated with the proposed Dallas-Houston 205 mph high-speed rail project to further determine its viability." Texas Central and Amtrak are "evaluating partnerships to further study and potentially advance the project". Transit industry veteran Andy Byford recently joined Amtrak to coordinate high speed rail initiatives for Amtrak.

* The Texas Central representative mentioned the previously disclosed estimated cost of $30 billion. A TPC member mentioned $40 billion.

* The Texas Central representative says there are 16 million trips per year between Houston and Dallas. (43,800 per day)

* Texas Central has 6 employees and a new CEO Michael Bowie

* There was discussion of who actually owns Texas Central now. The Texas Central representative was vague, but said that FTI consulting group now owns it. According to the FTI web site, they seem to do anything and everything, and are not focused on infrastructure.

* There was discussion of the 2019 H-GAC MOU (memorandum or understanding) between H-GAC and Texas Central. The MOU mentions no public funding, and a TPC member mentioned it is obsolete and needs to be reviewed.

* There was discussion about the Environmental Impact Statement, and if it conforms to new flood standards in the Houston area.

* The Texas Central representative said that Amtrak will complete its "due diligence" in about 6 months, and we can expect some more information in that time frame.

 

In Dallas-Fort Worth, NCTCOG is continuing with its study of the section between Dallas and Fort Worth, and a newsletter was just released.

My observations

* The $30 billion cost number is more than two years old. Highway construction costs are up 56% in the last two years. I think 40+ billion is probably more realistic. In my opinion, an updated cost estimate should be Amtrak's top priority. If they don't get a new cost estimate, then they won't have any credibility because they can't do any analysis without the cost number.

* The entire project was contingent on a very low interest rate. With 30-year treasury bonds at 4.6%, it seems to me that project bonds would need to be at least 7% to get investors. If the project is $40 billion, that's $2.8 billion in interest per year.

* When Texas Central started, the cost was estimated at $12 billion and interest rates were very low. Now it is probably 40+ billion and interest rates are very high. It seems to me that the only conclusion Amtrak's "due diligence" can reach is that this project can only be done with government funding.

* Interstate 45 near Centerville has a traffic counts of 39000 to 41000 per day. So the Texas Central number of 43,000 per day is realistic. The question is, what percant of those trips could become train trips?

* Just for illustration, let's say 50% of the trips switch to rail. (Of course it will be much less than 50%, but this is an illustrative calculation). $2800 million in interest divided by 8 million = $350 interest cost for every boarding! Obviously this cannot be a private project at $40 billion construction expense and 7% interest. There would need to be some kind of government-supplied below-market interest rate. Even at 2% interest, the interest cost per boarding is still $100 for the hypothetical 50% traffic capture.

* Andy Byford at Amtrak really has only 2 choices for true high speed rail in the U.S.: California and Texas. (It will be impossible to build a new high-speed right-of-way in the Northeast corridor.)

* The financial status of the federal government is shockingly bad. There's no recession or emergency or military conflict, but the budget deficit was $1.7 trillion in the recent fiscal year, which is 6.3% of GDP. Interest cost was $659 billion. At some point (probably sooner rather than later), the federal government will need to drastically curtail free money giveaways and wasteful spending.

 

[JClark54]

18 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

* There was discussion of the 2019 H-GAC MOU (memorandum or understanding) between H-GAC and Texas Central. The MOU mentions no public funding, and a TPC member mentioned it is obsolete and needs to be reviewed.

The Amtrak partnership provides a pathway to securing federal infrastructure funding. If the first two years of the BIL grant awards indicate what's needed in future years, matching funds from local entities may be required. Thus, the MOU would have to change. 

https://media.amtrak.com/2023/09/amtrak-awarded-nearly-200m-in-federal-grants/

"A combination of funds from Amtrak, the states of Mississippi, and Louisiana, the Alabama Port Authority, CSX Transportation, and Norfolk Southern Railway will provide a 20 percent non-Federal match."

 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JClark54

[JClark54]

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/2023/11/29/austin-mayor-travels-to-washington-asks-for-federal-transit-funds/71740815007/

Austin Mayor Kirk Watson traveled to the nation's capital Wednesday and made a plea for federal money to improve Texas' transit system.

[JClark54]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/austin-san-antonio-passenger-rail-18538394.php

 

Not to further belabor the points I made above regarding posts in this thread and a few others about Galveston that passenger rail can just share existing freight lines, but I saw the following graf in a story about San Antonio-Austin passenger rail. 

Currently, UP and BNSF categorically won't support sharing trackage rights with passenger rail since their new business models are designed to utilize longer trains to carry the same freight without building the infrastructure to support them. Thus, they extend onto main lines (and, resultingly, public streets) while waiting to enter yards or for others to pass. This saves personnel and capital improvement costs. 

The UP network development general director was invited to a passenger rail forum in the valley, where he responded the company is not in the business of passenger rail and won't support it on its lines when asked about cross-border passenger rail.

For any passenger rail to work here, where Amtrak or similar doesn't have an ownership stake in the lines upon which it operates, it'd have to be a new build. 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by JClark54

[Big E]

If Texas Central is still committed to using Shinkansen, they'd have to use their own lines anyway, making it a moot point. I don't see Amtrak building any new trackage in Texas.

[JClark54]

I agree  if they're committed to the same power, they'd have to use their own lines. Where I disagree is the Amtrak not building part. The newly announced partnership between the two seems rather pointless if Amtrak isn't going to pursue new lines. It's been vocal that the current track-sharing agreement is untenable, and TC likely sees Amtrak as a route to federal dollars. 

[BEES?!]

Houston-Dallas HSR corridor selected for study, gets $500k grant

There were also several other Houston/Texas projects selected for grants, as well

[MaxConcrete]

While Houston-to-Dallas high speed is uncertain and seems very unlikely to be built, NCTCOG is continuing its study of extending it from Dallas to Fort Worth.

Recent updates on the study web site show around 10 miles of tunnels on the alignment along I-30, about 7 miles in Arlington and 3 miles leading into downtown Fort Worth. In addition, the Arlington station is slated to be underground.

At Thursday's NCTCOG meeting, a Dallas representative demanded that Dallas also get a tunnel, which would be super expensive if it goes under the Trinity River.

Of course building tunnels is ridiculously expensive in the United States, probably at least $500 million per mile. A transit tunnel in Austin was canceled when the cost was estimated at $1 billion per mile. I assume there will be a new cost estimate for the Dallas-to-Fort Worth section at the end of the study in about a year, and I'm sure it will be shockingly high.

All this proposed tunneling seems like a poison pill to me. It will escalate the project cost out of control and make it financially infeasible. This study by NCTCOG is almost surely a moot exercise, but a good source of revenue for consultants.

Edited December 16, 2023 by MaxConcrete

[TXK]

33 minutes ago, MaxConcrete said:

At Thursday's NCTCOG meeting, a Dallas representative demanded that Dallas also get a tunnel

I get that at grade ROW is hard to come by and maybe there's another rationale I'm missing but demanding that your city's state of the art infrastructure project be hidden underground where you can't show it off seems kinda pointless. Especially when the alternative is the built in advertising of flying over all the drivers stuck in traffic on I-30.

[Houston19514]

21 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

While Houston-to-Dallas high speed is uncertain and seems very unlikely to be built, NCTCOG is continuing its study of extending it from Dallas to Fort Worth.

Recent updates on the study web site show around 10 miles of tunnels on the alignment along I-30, about 7 miles in Arlington and 3 miles leading into downtown Fort Worth. In addition, the Arlington station is slated to be underground.

At Thursday's NCTCOG meeting, a Dallas representative demanded that Dallas also get a tunnel, which would be super expensive if it goes under the Trinity River.

Of course building tunnels is ridiculously expensive in the United States, probably at least $500 million per mile. A transit tunnel in Austin was canceled when the cost was estimated at $1 billion per mile. I assume there will be a new cost estimate for the Dallas-to-Fort Worth section at the end of the study in about a year, and I'm sure it will be shockingly high.

All this proposed tunneling seems like a poison pill to me. It will escalate the project cost out of control and make it financially infeasible. This study by NCTCOG is almost surely a moot exercise, but a good source of revenue for consultants.

What an insane waste of money (and I'm just referring to the million-dollar "study", not the even-more-insane idea of building high-speed rail between Dallas and Fort Worth).  For a tiny fraction of the cost, they could add trackage to the already-existing TRE, allowing for express trains connecting Dallas and Fort Worth. Done. Years earlier; and actually affordable.

[Big E]

3 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

What an insane waste of money (and I'm just referring to the million-dollar "study", not the even-more-insane idea of building high-speed rail between Dallas and Fort Worth).  For a tiny fraction of the cost, they could add trackage to the already-existing TRE, allowing for express trains connecting Dallas and Fort Worth. Done. Years earlier; and actually affordable.

Considering the close distance between the two cities, its not even remotely economical to build high speed rail there unless it was was part of the large Texas Central Project, and was merely a connector between the Dallas-Houston route and a theoretical Forth Worth-San Antonio route, linking the two main stations together on a single trip to create a "loop" between the cities involved. Just building the connector alone would make no sense.

[Zorin]

I'm beginning to question the actual viability of this project, just off of what I see in northwest Harris County.  Playing around with alignment maps, it appears that the preferred route would roughly take it through the Dunham Pointe edition south of 290 and Mason Rd, then where the curve north starts, I'm having trouble discerning whether it would run through Grand Prairie or Jubilee.  This is not mentioning other developments occurring on the northern side of 290.  

I realize none of this is set in stone so to speak, but would developers really be pouring truckloads of cash into developing these areas, unless they KNEW their developments would not be subject to eminent domain?  Even if they did ED the land, they still have to pay fair market value, and going low at 250K per house, that will add up fast! 

[BeerNut]

Developers don't care once people have bought their homes.  Remember those homes built inside the reservoir that flooded during Harvey?  I wouldn't be surprised if there is language in the home deeds that says TCR has the ability to ED land at rate agreed upon with developer.