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but it is because of oil prices. well oil prices in conjuction with the incredible amount of supply that is or will deliver in the next 18 months. that's it. if oil was still at $90 do you think we would be seeing this slow down? of course not. $90 oil equals job growth.... job growth equals wage growth and population growth.... wage and population growth equal appetite for highrise projects.

i've been told repeatedly that if the project isn't already funded the chances of anything moving forwward in this environment is slim to none with an emphasis on the none. the biggest problem is that even if we have other economic drivers that will (should) keep us afloat like medical and the petrochem industry perception is reality for national/inhternational investors in regards to houston. we are an oil town and when oil goes bust so does houston.

who knows maybe this time is different and without a doubt there's always one or two groups that have the wherewithall or naviete to move forward in seemingly dire conditions but you can't count on those.

Wow, swtsig going Luminare on Luminare. That's the longest post I've ever seen you write.

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Perception being reality is the reason Houston ran out of homes (apartments, developable lots, retail space, etc., etc., etc.) earlier this year. If the development pipeline dries up and people keep moving to town, things will only get more unaffordable.

 

That said, I'd feel more confident that this thing gets built if I knew they had financing lined up.

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Perception being reality is the reason Houston ran out of homes (apartments, developable lots, retail space, etc., etc., etc.) earlier this year. If the development pipeline dries up and people keep moving to town, things will only get more unaffordable.

 

That said, I'd feel more confident that this thing gets built if I knew they had financing lined up.

 

With $45 oil people are not going to keep moving to Houston.

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Sh alright, thanks. I guess I'm just thinking of Pelicans condo tower going forward because they are footing the bill themselves?

Skanska is another developer in town doing the same. There are benefits to this strategy, obviously, but most developers would still prefer to borrow money, even they had the cash, so they can leverage the borrower's money and make higher returns.

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Oil may have dried up for a bit, but there is still the Keystone pipeline project which will benefit Houston.

That will benefit the refining side of the business (and I guess all downstream overall), but that is not much help. That side of the business is booming right now with low oil and gas prices, but for whatever reason you don't see it impacting the city's economy...

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That will benefit the refining side of the business (and I guess all downstream overall), but that is not much help. That side of the business is booming right now with low oil and gas prices, but for whatever reason you don't see it impacting the city's economy...

 

It impacts it alright.  Otherwise we would be in pandemonium right now.

 

Funny.... the big oil companies made a TON of money over the past decade or so, yet the first instant of trouble they cut jobs.  Perhaps they ought to rethink *how* much they pay people.  I have friends who are entry level that make obscene amounts of money considering just how dumb and green they are!  Stupid!

 

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I can remember in the 80's when Houston was in the throes of the last big oil ℜ estate bust. I know a couple of developers who at the time wished they could have a do over. Rusty Wortham & Van Liew were just starting up construction on the Heritage Plaza. I'm not sure why but despite the bad news at the time they went ahead with the project. I believe they had some kind of contractural agreement which forced them to move forward despite the conditions at the time

They went bankrupt.

I'm sure someone who has more knowledge of this project might have more of the facts about why they went ahead knowing what they did, but anyway this is an example of defying the market evidence and losing.

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I can remember in the 80's when Houston was in the throes of the last big oil ℜ estate bust. I know a couple of developers who at the time wished they could have a do over. Rusty Wortham & Van Liew were just starting up construction on the Heritage Plaza. I'm not sure why but despite the bad news at the time they went ahead with the project. I believe they had some kind of contractural agreement which forced them to move forward despite the conditions at the time

They went bankrupt.

I'm sure someone who has more knowledge of this project might have more of the facts about why they went ahead knowing what they did, but anyway this is an example of defying the market evidence and losing.

 

If 800 Bell is 100% taken by Justice Complex,

Hilcorp is 100% Hilcorp

609 Main has a tenant(s) with some leasable space left

 

Might be room for another tower to actually happen if a big tenant decides to pull the trigger on a move.

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I work in the downstream business. We are getting a lot of project cancellations. It's not as bad as upstream but there will be layoffs.

 

ya i don't think the downstream side is nearly as insulated as people want to believe. sure in theory lower crude/gas prices are great for their margins but there will still be a serious supply issues as rigs get idled and production drops. 

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With $45 oil people are not going to keep moving to Houston.

Really?

 

There is going to be 62,000 jobs created this year with an anticipated 120,000 population gain!

 

When we went the through the recession AND the oil crash in 2008 and 2009, Houston added 138,000 and 149,000 people respectively!! People were STILL moving here in droves when Houston was only gaining 40,000 jobs a year on up to the recent spark in job growth. People will CONTINUE to move to Houston. Everyone is NOT in the oil industry.

 

I don't get it. Houston goes through these cycles ALL THE TIME. I don't understand why this time everyone is so down and out and negative. Come on you guys, let's perk up! Houston is going to get through this like it already has. Houston is more popular than it's ever been. Somebody is going to want to start a business here. Some industry is going to move some jobs here. Jobs will be created; they won't be as high as oil unless it's medical, especially. Houston WILL weather this storm.

 

Like that above quote says...when oil is down, Houston grows. When oil is up, Houston booms. Ain't no doom here. We are growing.

Edited by Houston?
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^because lots of tall stuff is getting built and people here love the tall stuff, and the slowdown will greatly reduce the number of tall things being built!

 

Without trying to sound condescending... In all honesty - people here have seen all the proposals that are likely going to get scrapped.  International Tower (Stream/Essex) and a few others like 5 Allen Center are likely gone - and I think that's what people are more upset about.  We'll have to wait another 3-4 years (maybe much less?) to see other proposals come down the pike.

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^because lots of tall stuff is getting built and people here love the tall stuff, and the slowdown will greatly reduce the number of tall things being built!

 

Without trying to sound condescending... In all honesty - people here have seen all the proposals that are likely going to get scrapped.  International Tower (Stream/Essex) and a few others like 5 Allen Center are likely gone - and I think that's what people are more upset about.  We'll have to wait another 3-4 years (maybe much less?) to see other proposals come down the pike.

 

My problem with even some of these projects is that a few of those you mentioned were tittering on the brink of failure it seems anyway. Even before all this oil hullabaloo they kept getting delayed further and further back and lets remember that some of these were merely "proposed". While as great as some may be it matters for not until there are boots on the ground building away. It makes the constant complaining by some rather pointless as these by gone proposals are nothing but a dream and like dreams some are quickly forgot until the next thing comes up and sometimes we get better stuff later on. Who knows what could happen in the next few years.

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I'm surprised there are still people in denial on this forum.

 

 

I remember back in August 2008 when we had all these grandiose projects proposed and people kept saying that things were only getting bad because of a perception of bad things ahead and that things weren't actually bad. How do people not realize that perception is king to investors. Why do you think oil prices have collapsed? Do you think because just in a few months that oil production has skyrocketed out of no where? No, production has been gradual. No, it's the perception that the global economy isn't going to start significantly growing anytime soon and that the demand won't be there.

 

Let's apply this to Houston now. There is a perception that things are going to get bad here because of oil, even if the medical field and the port region do well. And when investors get worried, that's when you start having problems.

 

 

 

Oil may have dried up for a bit, but there is still the Keystone pipeline project which will benefit Houston. 

How? In fact, that may make things even worse. That doesn't benefit Houston but it does Canada. And with oversupply being the problem right now, having even more Canadian supply isn't going to make things better.

 

 

 

With $45 oil people are not going to keep moving to Houston.

And this isn't right either. Even if the oil sector is hit, there will still be people coming here for jobs. The people that do come here though may not warrant the expansion of Class A development, unless for example they are in the medical field and medical professionals need to move in somewhere. Although it has been in many sectors, the boom we have been seeing has been especially notable in Class A development... we may start seeing it swing towards more affordable units now but they may not be the architectural marvels that so many HAIFers require.

Edited by Triton
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A common mistake.

 

Most of the pipeline is already built! The only part that people are arguing about is the "shortcut" which passes over an important aquifer. The only real benefit is that it gets to Houston and places like Port Arthur quicker making the feasibility of shale and sands oil more profitable.

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A common mistake.

 

Most of the pipeline is already built! The only part that people are arguing about is the "shortcut" which passes over an important aquifer. The only real benefit is that it gets to Houston and places like Port Arthur quicker making the feasibility of shale and sands oil more profitable.

More profitable? What do you mean? Rigs in the Eagle Ford Texas area are now losing money... not even break even. More supply will make things even worse than they already are. We need a mixture of less supply (OPEC) and more demand (the rest of the world). Only new technology and better ways of drilling will make shale more profitable... not a pipeline.

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Those of you who keep saying oh the medical industry and the Port of Houston will make up for the losses in oil I'm

sorry to inform you but the reason our port ranks #1 in tonnage is due to the amount of oil product shipped through the port. It will be way down this next year in tonnage shipped.

The Keystone pipeline will not help us one bit. First its going to Port Arthur to be shipped overseas.

Every single segment of our economy will feel this crunch. Its called trickle down.

Now you can put your head in the sand or pretend that its not happening but I promise you these things

take at least a year or two to settle out.

Unless there is a major war in the middle east or China's economy was to become more robust which it doesn't look

like it will any time soon prices would go up.

There was a $3.00 spike yesterday due to concerns of isis getting closer to the reserves in the middle east.

Things will get better but in the near future things will definitely slow down.

But hey we have a million projects to watch go up, and by the time they're coming to a finish oil will probably be

back where it was and we'll go into our next boom. You can say I'm negative or a downer or whatever you like but

thats because you don't want to know the truth or can't believe it.

Its Houston, learn to live with it.

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