Mr. Chenevert Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 There isn't much disagreement here about how much is in the Bakken.http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/23/f...ton-bakken.htmlBTW, this still isn't my "source" for my info.From your article...According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there may be as many as 503 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken Formation - a natural geological phenomenon in the region - and estimates say that anywhere from three to 50 per cent of it is recoverable by currently available technology.How do you figure that there isnt much disagreement? Your own article goes against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 From your article...How do you figure that there isnt much disagreement? Your own article goes against that.I figure that there isn't much disagreement that there is over 400 billion barrels under there. I have it on good authority, they CAN get it, and most assuredly more than 3% using CURRENT technology.LOL! If you do the numbers. That is using CURRENT technology. So a yield of let's say 25% with CURRENT technology, would give us about 1000 years for technology to catch up and claim the rest of the oil. We may JUST be able to make it happen by then. Of course oil will most likely be a thing of the past and "Mr. Fusion" will probably have been realized by then. Nice try Chenny.Wait, wait, wait. I'm sorry, I didn't take into account that, like most people around here, you think that the technological advances have PEAKED in the oil industry, and what we have currently is the BEST stuff we have from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chenevert Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Stick to selling Nissans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Stick to selling Nissans.That's your witty retort to prove me wrong huh ? You need to stick to your nice, safe Goldfish bowl, because you OBVIOUSLY can't swim with the Sharks in this ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Boy I leave you guys for a few days and you really get the ball rolling. And yes the North Dakota is a little tougher to drill, but not devastating. And TJ you are correct in the Dolomite and Chert issues they have in the area. Just take patience and a good bit schedule to deal with the hard rock United Diamond has a UD-153 that has showed big promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Boy I leave you guys for a few days and you really get the ball rolling. And yes the North Dakota is a little tougher to drill, but not devastating. And TJ you are correct in the Dolomite ans Chert issues they have in the area. Just take patience and a good bit schedule to deal with the hard rock United Diamond has a UD-153 that has showed big promise.Mark, have you guys in the oil business made ANY advances in drilling technology in the past 50 years ? Chenevert thinks we are done with oil technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Developing new stuff as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Developing new stuff as we speak. WHew!!! Good to know, RIGHT Mr.Guppyvert ? Looks like we'll have the other 409 billion barrels out the ground in no time. Mr.Guppyvert, using your numbers just to be fair, do you think we could sustain long enough on that 4.3 billion barrels for the technology to get at the rest of the projected number of barrels ? Is 50 years not enough time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cottonmather0 Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 TJ, chill out. (and don't forget, I agree with you that drilling more would help the situation quite a bit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down with the EPA Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 TJ, chill out. (and don't forget, I agree with you that drilling more would help the situation quite a bit)So, TJ and Cottonmather, how do we drill more than we are now? I know that the US doesnt have the resources to drill more, but what if we drill deeper with less drilling mechanical problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 So, TJ and Cottonmather, how do we drill more than we are now? I know that the US doesnt have the resources to drill more, but what if we drill deeper with less drilling mechanical problems?My response would be to drill more places. Places that we aren't currently drilling, not necessarily deeper.Cotton, I am chill. I just find it funny that Mr.Chenevert's weak attempt to try and call me out backfired on him because he either 1) didn't read the whole article, or B: decided to conveniently leave out the whole "current technology" to try and spin his agenda. Then, once it blows up in his face, his best comeback is basically a "Your Mama!" response. He should know better than to bring his plastic power rangers sword to a vulcan cannon fight. I'm just sayin' !Cotton, there is no possible way to pull out 400 billion over night, in my link, using the numbers there, if only 3% can be drilled using today's, that's TODAY'S technology, that would actually yield 13 billion barrels, that is 120 to 130 years given the current rate of consumption growing. Surely we would have the technology WELL before then to tap the other oil there. Nobody wants to admit to that possibility. I would call it a fact, but ANYTHING can happen, just like they didn't think it was even possible to get that much oil out of there only 8 years ago, and here they have increased the projected numbers by 25X, in just 8 yrs. GOD I NEED A DRINK ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 My response would be to drill more places. Places that we aren't currently drilling, not necessarily deeper.How would you drill more places, when there is a shortage of both drilling rigs and pipe? You gonna bust out with Jed's varmint gun again?As for 13 Billion barrells of oil lasting 130 years, considering that we import 14 million barrels per DAY currently, I don't see how 274,000 barrels per day will solve anything. Your math is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CDeb Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Toyota shutting down San Antonio Tundra plant for three months....http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headli...iz/5880705.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJVilla Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 A very good point from the original CNN article forum part. We would like a good optimal price (range from 40 - 80) but we need to prepare for the worst with alternatives. BTW, I work in the oil industry. The guy's point:" Mr. Tully makes real sense at first glance. He well states other examples of bubble to bust scenarios.However, I do not believe his example cases compare well to oil.Take housing, for example. The oversupply of houses cannot be applied to oil. Why? Because the house continues to remain residually. It does not get "consumed" as oil does.Homes built continue to exist in inventory. And while population increase does "eat" into that inventory eventually, it does not eat inventory like oil.Oil is burned or put into consumeable products in manufacturing. And then it is gone.Homes are built largely from timber, which are renewable, with proper care and planning.Oil is not renewable. And the inventories are eaten by population increase, economic growth (globally balanced), and are reduced by natural oil reserve declines, which means current production must continually be replaced just to maintain status quo, not to meet increases in demand.There are net, 80 million new people in the world each year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJVilla Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Oh yeah the "green" company. The only green they care about is the greenback, not their BS propaganda. Those green cars have a bigger (total) enviromental foot-print that Hummers! Toyota shutting down San Antonio Tundra plant for three months....http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headli...iz/5880705.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 How would you drill more places, when there is a shortage of both drilling rigs and pipe? You gonna bust out with Jed's varmint gun again?As for 13 Billion barrells of oil lasting 130 years, considering that we import 14 million barrels per DAY currently, I don't see how 274,000 barrels per day will solve anything. Your math is pretty amazing.Sorry to take so long to answer, have had a crazy day so far.DAMMIT Red, my dumbass was doin the math in my head and I added a friggin' ZERO to the numbers. So, there is a total of only 500 years of oil under Brakken, and at 25% yield using current technology, is 120 years. 4.3billion would only be a 12 year supply. I got overly excited in this thread and spewed out numbers without double checking. I am figuring that they could only pull about 3 million barrels a day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cottonmather0 Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 I came across this article tonight in the New Yorker. Very well done. The money paragraph is below and does a good job explaining what's so hard to understand for a lot of people about the oil market, that the price today is inexorably tied to the price tomorrow:But there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Oh yeah the "green" company. The only green they care about is the greenback, not their BS propaganda. Those green cars have a bigger (total) enviromental foot-print that Hummers!Myth, but if it works for you, run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Sorry to take so long to answer, have had a crazy day so far.DAMMIT Red, my dumbass was doin the math in my head and I added a friggin' ZERO to the numbers. So, there is a total of only 500 years of oil under Brakken, and at 25% yield using current technology, is 120 years. 4.3billion would only be a 12 year supply. I got overly excited in this thread and spewed out numbers without double checking. I am figuring that they could only pull about 3 million barrels a day out.The oil markets realized TJ was using fuzzy math, and have now rebounded to a record of nearly $146.http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5882113.htmlIt is also possible, but not likely, that the Iranian missile launches factored in, even though one of those was a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brerrabbit Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 I came across this article tonight in the New Yorker. Very well done. The money paragraph is below and does a good job explaining what's so hard to understand for a lot of people about the oil market, that the price today is inexorably tied to the price tomorrow:This explains the market and hopefully makes people understand that a huge part of the pricing in commodities markets are based on exactly what this guy is saying, expectations. Now this does not bode well in our current situation because of high prices, people are saying its the speculators fault when in fact it is merely the markets reaction to the future availability of oil that is driving the price up. The only part I don't completely agree with is the belief that any oil producer would wait to sell their oil till prices went up. Over the 26 years I have spent in the energy industry I can tell you that productions responsibility is to move 100% of the product every day and marketings responsibility is to sell it. I have had numerous conversations over the years with people in the industry that point directly to that fact. The idea outlined above was told to me over lunch in 1993 by a senior marketing guy from Chevron about a long term natural gas purchase deal I was negotiating with him at the time. Shell also told me the same thing when they brought in some large gas production areas in offshore Louisiana. They were faced with waiting for a regulated pipeline company to build a gathering line out to their facility in order to market their production. I was going to take almost two years to get permitting and go through the regulated process to build the line. If Shell did it theirselves it would be flowing gas in one year. The cost and rick to Shell was substantially less if they waited because all they would be was a shipper on a third party line. They said we can't wait because the longer the product went unsold with no cash flow the more money they lost. They built the line and started flowing the gas in 10 months.The one notible exception would be natuionalized oil companies. One would assume that since Saudi Arabia owned the oil in the ground they would be willing to wait for better prices. At one time I assumed that. Then as I worked for a company that had JV's with Saudi Aramco I got the opportunity to host a couple of Saudi's who were working with us and basically show them our entire operation. As we were discussing the fact that some of our direct retail sites were not profitable and that economic analysis had indicated we would be better off closing the station and selling the land I was shocked by this guys reply. He got almost mad and asked why would we ever consider for one minute loosing the opportunity to sell gas? He said the phylosophy in Saudi Arabia was sell all you can as fast as you can and never pass up the opportunity. I challenged him saying that overall given the competition and that fact that the stations were costing us money to operate we would be foolish to keep them open. His answer was its never foolish to sell oil. Obviously the answer of someone who owns or lives in a counrty that owns one hell of a lot of oil in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 The one notible exception would be natuionalized oil companies. One would assume that since Saudi Arabia owned the oil in the ground they would be willing to wait for better prices. At one time I assumed that. Then as I worked for a company that had JV's with Saudi Aramco I got the opportunity to host a couple of Saudi's who were working with us and basically show them our entire operation. As we were discussing the fact that some of our direct retail sites were not profitable and that economic analysis had indicated we would be better off closing the station and selling the land I was shocked by this guys reply. He got almost mad and asked why would we ever consider for one minute loosing the opportunity to sell gas? He said the phylosophy in Saudi Arabia was sell all you can as fast as you can and never pass up the opportunity. I challenged him saying that overall given the competition and that fact that the stations were costing us money to operate we would be foolish to keep them open. His answer was its never foolish to sell oil. Obviously the answer of someone who owns or lives in a counrty that owns one hell of a lot of oil in the ground.Saudis can be ball-busters like that. Aside from that they don't like it when a major oil retailer decides that they are going to cut back on retail outlets for a commodity refined from a feedstock that the Saudis provide, the last thing they (the Saudi government = Aramco) want is oil prices that get so high that there is market cannibalization on the demand side, but they fully realize that at some point down the road, oil prices get so high that civilization will switch to an oil alternative and that they'll only be stuck with a load of practically worthless goo in the ground if they don't sell it TODAY.My understanding is that it is actually a factor that causes some significant division/cheating within OPEC. I'm not sure that it necessarily applies to all nationalized oil companies, though. Maybe Russia and Iran, too, but if so then it is to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 $128.88, and heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plumber2 Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 $128.88, and heading south.It won't last. Some rebel in Nigeria will tamper with a pipeline valve, or some spokeperson from the Mid East will say something outrageous. If that doesn't happen within the next week, the traders will use the tropical depression in the Carribean to scare the price back up. It's all just so foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 It won't last. Some rebel in Nigeria will tamper with a pipeline valve, or some spokeperson from the Mid East will say something outrageous. If that doesn't happen within the next week, the traders will use the tropical depression in the Carribean to scare the price back up. It's all just so foolish.Well, hopefully it is on a downward spiral that will last and last and last. I just hope pump prices follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Don't hold your breath!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted July 19, 2008 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Don't hold your breath!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Prices aren't going to stay high forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
memebag Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 Prices aren't going to stay high forever.Certainly not. Eventually the sun will expand and consume the entire planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 It won't last. Some rebel in Nigeria will tamper with a pipeline valve, or some spokeperson from the Mid East will say something outrageous. If that doesn't happen within the next week, the traders will use the tropical depression in the Carribean to scare the price back up. It's all just so foolish.Market prices frequently overshoot both on the way up and the way down. Remember, ten years ago oil was flirting with $10/bbl. I think people could well be surprised at how far and fast oil prices might fall. At which point everyone can hop back into their SUVs and go on their merry way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 So, oil has dropped to levels not seen since......June 20. Wow. Color me impressed. That is such a long time ago. Someone help me out here. Was June the heyday of cheap oil?Just for historical reference, 6 months ago, on January 20, oil was at $84. So, the precipitous fall of oil prices has left it 50% higher than 6 months ago. Time to go buy that SUV you've been longing for.Now that we've added a little perspective, it is not unusual for markets to rise and fall. The unusual part was oil's unrelenting rise for 7 months straight, even during times when historically it would fall. With oil and gas prices FINALLY causing an adjustment in consumption, it is only natural that prices would moderate. If you look at the weekly average of oil, which levels out spikes and valleys, it is $131, down from its high of $135. Assuming no hurricanes hit the Gulf, come September we should see it fall some more. But, like clockwork, it will rise again next spring. The only thing we know for sure is that it will stay high relative to historical prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted July 20, 2008 Share Posted July 20, 2008 So, oil has dropped to levels not seen since......June 20. Wow. Color me impressed. That is such a long time ago. Someone help me out here. Was June the heyday of cheap oil?Just for historical reference, 6 months ago, on January 20, oil was at $84. So, the precipitous fall of oil prices has left it 50% higher than 6 months ago. Time to go buy that SUV you've been longing for.Now that we've added a little perspective, it is not unusual for markets to rise and fall. The unusual part was oil's unrelenting rise for 7 months straight, even during times when historically it would fall. With oil and gas prices FINALLY causing an adjustment in consumption, it is only natural that prices would moderate. If you look at the weekly average of oil, which levels out spikes and valleys, it is $131, down from its high of $135. Assuming no hurricanes hit the Gulf, come September we should see it fall some more. But, like clockwork, it will rise again next spring. The only thing we know for sure is that it will stay high relative to historical prices.Agreed. I think anyone that would buy an SUV or truck without good cause (big family, hauling or work-related needs) would be foolish to do so. Even with falling petrol prices, it would be a good time to downsize if possible.As a point of reference, when I bought my Civic (2005) in late 2004 I could fill up my 12 gallon tank for about $18. That same fillup is costing me in excess of $41. Even though I drive a very fuel efficient car (average anywhere from 33 - 35 mpg) I still fill the pinch of higher gasoline costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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