Downtown Apartment Market

[H-Town Man]

2 hours ago, Luminare said:

 

Is that 50k in Downtown alone? That would be incredible. That would be comparable to some of the densist cities in America. Do we even have areas of the size of downtown with 50,000? I think this should be the goal every district here in town. Its definitely possible for most districts to not only get that much but also maintain some cores of original single family sized homes in pockets if they desire to maintain that lineage.

 

I saw an article yesterday (in Costar so not linkable) saying that downtown Minneapolis had reached the landmark of 50,000 residents and still cannot bring retail in. Blamed the Mall of America. I think there is some finagling of the borders for that stat, I do not see where 50,000 residents could fit in their downtown proper. In fact we are already even or ahead of them in luxury highrises, despite them having been at this game a lot longer. 

 

But my takeaway from the article was that we are far from alone in dealing with this issue of bringing back downtown retail, and right now really isn't the time. The retail sector is hemorrhaging badly from Amazon and there is little appetite for trying new stores in risky locations. 

 

[j_cuevas713]

3 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

I saw an article yesterday (in Costar so not linkable) saying that downtown Minneapolis had reached the landmark of 50,000 residents and still cannot bring retail in. Blamed the Mall of America. I think there is some finagling of the borders for that stat, I do not see where 50,000 residents could fit in their downtown proper. In fact we are already even or ahead of them in luxury highrises, despite them having been at this game a lot longer. 

 

But my takeaway from the article was that we are far from alone in dealing with this issue of bringing back downtown retail, and right now really isn't the time. The retail sector is hemorrhaging badly from Amazon and there is little appetite for trying new stores in risky locations. 

 

Yeah but we also aren't Minneapolis. I think Houston has the advantage by simply being Houston. 

[cspwal]

4 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

I saw an article yesterday (in Costar so not linkable) saying that downtown Minneapolis had reached the landmark of 50,000 residents and still cannot bring retail in. Blamed the Mall of America. I think there is some finagling of the borders for that stat, I do not see where 50,000 residents could fit in their downtown proper. In fact we are already even or ahead of them in luxury highrises, despite them having been at this game a lot longer. 

 

But my takeaway from the article was that we are far from alone in dealing with this issue of bringing back downtown retail, and right now really isn't the time. The retail sector is hemorrhaging badly from Amazon and there is little appetite for trying new stores in risky locations. 

 

 

There is a big Target in downtown Minneapolis 

[Houston19514]

6 hours ago, brijonmang said:

Page 24, 300 car garage for Incarnate Word/Church

 

Oh, I see it actually says Texas and Crawford  Arrrgghh...   the planned parking garage would of course be at Texas and Avenida de las Americas, not Crawford (and I think that block of Jackson would  be abandoned). 

Edited February 22, 2019 by Houston19514

[Houston19514]

5 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

I saw an article yesterday (in Costar so not linkable) saying that downtown Minneapolis had reached the landmark of 50,000 residents and still cannot bring retail in. Blamed the Mall of America. I think there is some finagling of the borders for that stat, I do not see where 50,000 residents could fit in their downtown proper. In fact we are already even or ahead of them in luxury highrises, despite them having been at this game a lot longer. 

 

But my takeaway from the article was that we are far from alone in dealing with this issue of bringing back downtown retail, and right now really isn't the time. The retail sector is hemorrhaging badly from Amazon and there is little appetite for trying new stores in risky locations. 

 

 

Yeah, it looks like they are taking in an area of about 4 1/2 square miles, including neighborhoods across the river. (In Houston, that would cover downtown, midtown, EADO, and part of Montrose)

 

Good reality check on the expectations for downtown dry goods retail. 

[nate4l1f3]

21 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Oh, I see it actually says Texas and Crawford  Arrrgghh...   the planned parking garage would of course be at Texas and Avenida de las Americas, not Crawford (and I think that block of Jackson would  be abandoned). 

Was there ever any mention of GFR? Maybe facing MMP? 

[hindesky]

After reading the Downton Districts 2018 Update, I saw something about the mural and wanted to see for myself.

 

“Produce Row,” a sprawling, 7,000-SF mural that spans three levels now adorns Main&Co mixed-use devel- opment. designed and painted by local artist duAL, and conceptualized by uP Art Studio, the mural at the intersection of Main and commerce streets is a tribute to commerce Street’s history as the site for Houston’s first farmers market in the 1870s. Main&co is home to the cottonmouth club; etRo nightclub; Lilly&Bloom; and a contemporary arts space.

 

[TheSirDingle]

I got a feeling good ole' Downtown Houston has passed 10,000 residents already. Considering the absorption rate of downtown apartments.

Hopefully seeing the demand for living in the core, developers will put downtown residential development into full steam. Considering what Hines is doing, I would say this is just the start. 

[cspwal]

According to the video posted in the 212 Milam thread, downtown is at 67,000 residents

 

 

[Sky-guy]

A quick google search shows numbers between 8k and 13k, but nothing as high as 67k. 

[TheSirDingle]

Quote

 

 

1 hour ago, Sky-guy said:

A quick google search shows numbers between 8k and 13k, but nothing as high as 67k. 

So going off of @downtownian post about Downtown Density, and how big the actual core is. Coupled with the population ranges. When can assume that the core has a population density (.7 square miles) ranging from 11,428/mile^2 to 18,571/mile^2. With the overall area (1.6 square miles) being 5,000/mile^2 to 8,125/mile^2. This possibly makes the Downtown Core, the most densely populated part of the city.  

[mattyt36]

Not even close, TheSir. See: Gulfton. There are plenty of other Census tracts in the City that are way more densely populated than downtown. God help us if downtown is considered “densely populated.”

 

Surely downtown Houston has an area greater than 0.7 sq mi?! I think that’s the problem in Downtownian’s original post.

[mollusk]

Downtown's bigger than a square mile - but not by much.  

[downtownian]

9 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Not even close, TheSir. See: Gulfton. There are plenty of other Census tracts in the City that are way more densely populated than downtown. God help us if downtown is considered “densely populated.”

 

Surely downtown Houston has an area greater than 0.7 sq mi?! I think that’s the problem in Downtownian’s original post.

 

Downtown Houston has an area of 1.6 square miles. I defined 0.7 square miles as “core” - excluding the warehouse district north of the bayou and the Louisiana street office corridor which has no residential and is just a collection of skyscrapers. 

 

Gulfton has population density of 15,500 / square mile and second place is pecan park at 10,200 / square mile. 

 

 

[downtownian]

Q1 2019 downtown market report just released. See link and highlights below.

• Not yet 10k residents. Occupancy increased from 84.4% in Q4 2018 to 86.8% in Q1 2019. "The submarket has grown to close to 6,100 residential units, up from about 2,500 in 2013; Downtown now houses over 9,000 residents."
• "[The Preston], Camden Downtown and Regalia at the Park—will add 873 units to Downtown’s growing inventory."
• The office dynamics are interesting and worth reading all the way through. Flight to quality is causing significant renovation projects, co-working spaces are increasing share, overall vacancy increased from 19.7% to 20.4%. Bank of America Tower (formerly Capitol Tower) is 82% leased which seems fast compared to 609 Main which has been open a while and is "over 80% leased".
• The Downtown District has a new security program with SEAL Security. Two dedicated SEAL officers will patrol Downtown and walk designated high traffic areas daily from 7 pm to 3 am.
• I think having Houston's innovation and tech corridor downtown instead of the former Sears site makes a lot of sense. It seems to be organically developing: "Downtown’s emerging tech, innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystem continues to grow at a solid pace. In the first quarter alone, Downtown’s innovation ecosystem gained two new co-working spaces (Life Time Work, Spaces), two new accelerators and one incubator (MassChallenge, Founder Institute, WeWork Labs), and two notable tech tenants (Ruths.ai and UiPath), further placing Houston on the map as a competitive tech and innovation hub. Venture capital activity has also significantly increased, with Chevron Technology Ventures new $90 million Fund VII; and new accelerator/investment programs by BBL Ventures and Eunike Ventures... Downtown now has eight co-working companies, an unprecedented expansion a key amenity for cluster growth in Downtown’s dynamic innovation ecosystem."

 

http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/downtown_market_update_2019_q1.pdf

[mattyt36]

12 hours ago, downtownian said:

• The Downtown District has a new security program with SEAL Security. Two dedicated SEAL officers will patrol Downtown and walk designated high traffic areas daily from 7 pm to 3 am.

 

Well that sounds like, er, underkill.

[Houston19514]

2 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

 

Well that sounds like, er, underkill.

 

Yeah, and why isn't that being done by Police?

[mattyt36]

42 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Yeah, and why isn't that being done by Police?

 

I can't imagine it's practical for large numbers of police officers to spend their time addressing, er, "quality-of-life" issues, especially if building owners aren't willing to press charges.

 

I have an office at 405 Main . . . all I can say is it's getting worse by the day down there and frequently borders on uncomfortable.  Not sure what can be done, however.

[H-Town Man]

15 hours ago, downtownian said:

Q1 2019 downtown market report just released. See link and highlights below.

• Not yet 10k residents. Occupancy increased from 84.4% in Q4 2018 to 86.8% in Q1 2019. "The submarket has grown to close to 6,100 residential units, up from about 2,500 in 2013; Downtown now houses over 9,000 residents."
• "[The Preston], Camden Downtown and Regalia at the Park—will add 873 units to Downtown’s growing inventory."
• The office dynamics are interesting and worth reading all the way through. Flight to quality is causing significant renovation projects, co-working spaces are increasing share, overall vacancy increased from 19.7% to 20.4%. Bank of America Tower (formerly Capitol Tower) is 82% leased which seems fast compared to 609 Main which has been open a while and is "over 80% leased".
• The Downtown District has a new security program with SEAL Security. Two dedicated SEAL officers will patrol Downtown and walk designated high traffic areas daily from 7 pm to 3 am.
• I think having Houston's innovation and tech corridor downtown instead of the former Sears site makes a lot of sense. It seems to be organically developing: "Downtown’s emerging tech, innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystem continues to grow at a solid pace. In the first quarter alone, Downtown’s innovation ecosystem gained two new co-working spaces (Life Time Work, Spaces), two new accelerators and one incubator (MassChallenge, Founder Institute, WeWork Labs), and two notable tech tenants (Ruths.ai and UiPath), further placing Houston on the map as a competitive tech and innovation hub. Venture capital activity has also significantly increased, with Chevron Technology Ventures new $90 million Fund VII; and new accelerator/investment programs by BBL Ventures and Eunike Ventures... Downtown now has eight co-working companies, an unprecedented expansion a key amenity for cluster growth in Downtown’s dynamic innovation ecosystem."

 

http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/downtown_market_update_2019_q1.pdf

 

Downtown apartment leasing seems to have hit a wall between last fall and now, according to this and another source that I have. Not sure what Houston 19514's quarterly report will say.

 

[cspwal]

Not a large number - just 2 officers

 

The wall is probably because no new places have opened up - the numbers will probably go up again once the Camden opens

[Houston19514]

2 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Downtown apartment leasing seems to have hit a wall between last fall and now, according to this and another source that I have. Not sure what Houston 19514's quarterly report will say.

 

 

Oops.  I kinda forgot.

1st Quarter, 2019:

 

A net 95 units were absorbed in the CBD, while zero new units were delivered.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown added about 44 people per month during the 1st quarter. Certainly a slow down, but still growing).  Up to 86.8% occupancy.

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 324 new units during the quarter, with 628 units net absorption.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Houston19514

[H-Town Man]

I think there was a similar slowdown the previous winter, come to think of it. Most people don't move in the winter. They may also not be flexing on rents so much for the last 10% of lease-up. 

[Tumbleweed_Tx]

most of the units from the downtown initiative have been built, delivered, and leased, so there will be a slowdown until more are built.

[H-Town Man]

12 hours ago, Tumbleweed_Tx said:

most of the units from the downtown initiative have been built, delivered, and leased, so there will be a slowdown until more are built.

 

But they haven't been fully leased - occupancy is sitting at 86%, with most of the newest stuff down in the 70's and the older stuff up in the 90's. They are not fully leased until they are in the 90's. I suspect that will happen this summer; if it doesn't, not a healthy sign.

 

[X.R.]

2 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

But they haven't been fully leased - occupancy is sitting at 86%, with most of the newest stuff down in the 70's and the older stuff up in the 90's. They are not fully leased until they are in the 90's. I suspect that will happen this summer; if it doesn't, not a healthy sign.

 

 

If you spend time in downtown during M-Th from 6pm-10pm, you can see that people are using the streets and walking around but its joggers and people walking to go sit indoors at a bar. So people are moving in and occupying spaces. I think the "wall" is that other than the bars and random experience stuff, theres not much reason to be outside/push a person to move to downtown. At least Midtown has a smattering of parks and outside-friendly bars. That southern park can't come soon enough. If you're living at skyhouse, its kind of a walk to get to discovery green. Midtown on the other hand has people walking to the grocery stores and to do Zumba at the park and stuff. Its a weird contrast for sure. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by X.R.

[H-Town Man]

38 minutes ago, X.R. said:

 

If you spend time in downtown during M-Th from 6pm-10pm, you can see that people are using the streets and walking around but its joggers and people walking to go sit indoors at a bar. So people are moving in and occupying spaces. I think the "wall" is that other than the bars and random experience stuff, theres not much reason to be outside/push a person to move to downtown. At least Midtown has a smattering of parks and outside-friendly bars. That southern park can't come soon enough. If you're living at skyhouse, its kind of a walk to get to discovery green. Midtown on the other hand has people walking to the grocery stores and to do Zumba at the park and stuff. Its a weird contrast for sure. 

 

Buffalo Bayou is a halfway decent park.

 

[CaptainJilliams]

4 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Buffalo Bayou is a halfway decent park.

 

 

And they are planning to renovate Jones Plaza to make it greener like a park as well as turning the downtown Goodyear into a park. 

 

If all goes well with the sinking of the highway on the southeast side of town and the park cap gets made, the green space downtown will easily double or triple (but we will have to wait and see).

[H-Town Man]

3 minutes ago, CaptainJilliams said:

 

And they are planning to renovate Jones Plaza to make it greener like a park as well as turning the downtown Goodyear into a park. 

 

If all goes well with the sinking of the highway on the southeast side of town and the park cap gets made, the green space downtown will easily double or triple (but we will have to wait and see).

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on the park cap. But downtown I think does pretty well in its park offerings, at least the north side of downtown. Could you imagine if you lived in downtown Dallas? Even downtown Austin does not really have any good squares and could learn a thing or two from us in that department.

 

[mattyt36]

On 5/30/2019 at 1:36 PM, H-Town Man said:

 

I wouldn't hold my breath on the park cap. But downtown I think does pretty well in its park offerings, at least the north side of downtown. Could you imagine if you lived in downtown Dallas? Even downtown Austin does not really have any good squares and could learn a thing or two from us in that department.

 

 

If the 45 realignment proceeds, the cap park will most definitely be built, with HoustonFirst having responsibility (they're already proceeding in that direction).  Maybe not to the scale of what we see in the drawings, but something for the area outside the GRB you can count on.

 

The likelihood of the rest being built (e.g., anything through Midtown or anything happening with the Pierce Elevated) on the other hand is much, much lower.

[Texasota]

I would think that the "innovation district" moving forward makes the 59/Main cap much more likely than it otherwise would have been.