Downtown Apartment Market

[mattyt36]

2 hours ago, Texasota said:

I would think that the "innovation district" moving forward makes the 59/Main cap much more likely than it otherwise would have been.

 

True, Rice certainly has deep pockets and that would be a logical “amenity” for a place that otherwise wouldn’t have one.

Edited June 1, 2019 by mattyt36

[H-Town Man]

On ‎6‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 11:58 AM, mattyt36 said:

 

If the 45 realignment proceeds, the cap park will most definitely be built, with HoustonFirst having responsibility (they're already proceeding in that direction).  Maybe not to the scale of what we see in the drawings, but something for the area outside the GRB you can count on.

 

The likelihood of the rest being built (e.g., anything through Midtown or anything happening with the Pierce Elevated) on the other hand is much, much lower.

 

I don't think we can use the phrase "most definitely" until we see funding. It's very easy for an organization to show interest. When Jeff Speck gave his presentation on the I-45 rebuild, he estimated the cap park would cost around $300 million. That is a massive price tag for any city, almost four times what Discovery Green cost. Maybe it will be smaller and cost less, but any freeway deck park is a huge undertaking. That's why there are so few of them in the country. So it may happen, but as I said before, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[mattyt36]

3 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

I don't think we can use the phrase "most definitely" until we see funding. It's very easy for an organization to show interest. When Jeff Speck gave his presentation on the I-45 rebuild, he estimated the cap park would cost around $300 million. That is a massive price tag for any city, almost four times what Discovery Green cost. Maybe it will be smaller and cost less, but any freeway deck park is a huge undertaking. That's why there are so few of them in the country. So it may happen, but as I said before, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

 

Well Jeff Speck lives in MA, does not have any association with the City or the State, and strongly disagrees with the I-45 realignment, so I’m not sure that’s the authority I would appeal to.

 

The primary determinant of the cost is what’s paid for by the State and what’s paid for by someone else. And the primary cost driver is the cap itself. I think politically it will very easily proceed as a signature project and will be funded by the State. (And, quite honestly it should ... where does the gas tax come from?!)

 

That said, the bigger question is whether the realignment itself proceeds. I’m not the biggest fan myself, for many of the qualitative issues that Speck has cited IN THE END, but the real problem is going to be the construction period. I fear it will be similar to the effect of the light rail construction in the late 1990s and early 2000s downtown.

 

The East End will be set back 10 years and the Near Northside probably 30.

Edited June 3, 2019 by mattyt36

[H-Town Man]

10 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

 

Well Jeff Speck lives in MA, does not have any association with the City or the State, and strongly disagrees with the I-45 realignment, so I’m not sure that’s the authority I would appeal to.

 

The primary determinant of the cost is what’s paid for by the State and what’s paid for by someone else. And the primary cost driver is the cap itself. I think politically it will very easily proceed as a signature project and will be funded by the State. (And, quite honestly it should ... where does the gas tax come from?!)

 

That said, the bigger question is whether the realignment itself proceeds. I’m not the biggest fan myself, for many of the qualitative issues that Speck has cited IN THE END, but the real problem is going to be the construction period. I fear it will be similar to the effect of the light rail construction in the late 1990s and early 2000s downtown.

 

The East End will be set back 10 years and the Near Northside probably 30.

 

Speck employed a logical comparison to the cost of Klyde Warren Park, making a straight-line adjustment for the relative size of the two projects. I'm not saying he's an authority, but the analysis is reasonable as a rough estimate. Let's say there are some economies of scale and it only costs $200 million. Is anything with that kind of price tag "most definitely" going to happen? I am also highly skeptical that the state is going to pay for a freeway cap park out of the gas tax. Can you think of any instance where the state has funded a high price tag urban park project out of transportation money?

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by H-Town Man

[mattyt36]

26 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Speck employed a logical comparison to the cost of Klyde Warren Park, making a straight-line adjustment for the relative size of the two projects. I'm not saying he's an authority, but the analysis is reasonable as a rough estimate. Let's say there are some economies of scale and it only costs $200 million. Is anything with that kind of price tag "most definitely" going to happen? I am also highly skeptical that the state is going to pay for a freeway cap park out of the gas tax. Can you think of any instance where the state has funded a high price tag urban park project out of transportation money?

 

 

H-Town, I’m not saying they will fund the park, just the supporting infrastructure.

 

In any case, you’re “most definitely” speculating. I’m “most definitely” speculating. So further argument is pointless.

 

However, I’d have no problem putting money down on a park being built. Won’t look like or be as big as the pictures, but I’m confident it will be built.

Edited June 3, 2019 by mattyt36

[mattyt36]

In re the $200 million price tag for Klyde Warren Park, this article states $110 million.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/business-economy/2018/10/slideshow-the-expansion-of-klyde-warren-park/

 

This earlier article details TxDOT’s financial contribution.  While it doesn’t explicitly say gas tax, that’s where the money comes from.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-magazine/2012/special-report-the-park/how-klyde-warren-park-was-built/

 

The cost for new construction versus retrofit will be less.

[wilcal]

6 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

In re the $200 million price tag for Klyde Warren Park, this article states $110 million.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/business-economy/2018/10/slideshow-the-expansion-of-klyde-warren-park/

 

This earlier article details TxDOT’s financial contribution.  While it doesn’t explicitly say gas tax, that’s where the money comes from.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-magazine/2012/special-report-the-park/how-klyde-warren-park-was-built/

 

The cost for new construction versus retrofit will be less.

 

Pretty sure TxDOT highway funding is under 40% from gas tax/registrations. I did research on it awhile back but can't find it. 

[mattyt36]

17 minutes ago, wilcal said:

 

Pretty sure TxDOT highway funding is under 40% from gas tax/registrations. I did research on it awhile back but can't find it. 

 

Their budget is certainly not all funded with the gas tax but the appropriate question is how non-tolled highway projects are funded.

 

in any case, it’s splitting hairs in re this project. Doesn’t matter if it’s funded 40% with gas tax, 100% with gas tax, general fund, or other sources.

[H-Town Man]

1 hour ago, mattyt36 said:

In re the $200 million price tag for Klyde Warren Park, this article states $110 million.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/business-economy/2018/10/slideshow-the-expansion-of-klyde-warren-park/

 

This earlier article details TxDOT’s financial contribution.  While it doesn’t explicitly say gas tax, that’s where the money comes from.

 

https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-magazine/2012/special-report-the-park/how-klyde-warren-park-was-built/

 

The cost for new construction versus retrofit will be less.

 

When do you think I said that Klyde Warren Park had a $200 million price tag? I said that Jeff Speck took the cost of Klyde Warren, adjusted it for land area on a straight-line basis (i.e. he scaled it up by the ratio of the larger land size), and estimated $300 million for Houston's cap park. I rather generously suggested that it might be as low as $200 million based on economies of scale (i.e., just because something is 3 or so times larger doesn't mean it will cost 3 times as much). Need to read what people write.

 

As to your comment that we are both speculating, it is rather more speculative to say that a nine-figure project will "most definitely" be built than to say, "I wouldn't hold my breath."

 

[mattyt36]

1 hour ago, H-Town Man said:

 

When do you think I said that Klyde Warren Park had a $200 million price tag? I said that Jeff Speck took the cost of Klyde Warren, adjusted it for land area on a straight-line basis (i.e. he scaled it up by the ratio of the larger land size), and estimated $300 million for Houston's cap park. I rather generously suggested that it might be as low as $200 million based on economies of scale (i.e., just because something is 3 or so times larger doesn't mean it will cost 3 times as much). Need to read what people write.

 

As to your comment that we are both speculating, it is rather more speculative to say that a nine-figure project will "most definitely" be built than to say, "I wouldn't hold my breath."

 

 

H-Town, if you want to waste air and bytes arguing semantics, then please be my guest. The truth of the matter is HoustonFirst is already talking about the cap park being their next and most important project if the realignment proceeds, and other relevant and high profile organizations with political clout like the Downtown District are on board. It’s not much of a leap to assume that something this high profile as a small part of a multibillion project will proceed in some form JUST LIKE IT WAS in your Klyde Warren example. Now as for miles and miles of cap parks shown in some of the conceptual plans, well, to quote someone else on here, “I wouldn’t hold my breath.”

 

I’m sorry that doesn’t jibe with Jeff Speck’s (or apparently your) view of the world. Saying “I wouldn’t hold my breath” in the context of the momentum that’s already building, and the strides that the City has made in funding multiple major park projects in the past decade is, IMO, baseless.  

 

But yes, you win. My “most definitely” is not definite, and your vacuous “I wouldn’t hold my breath” is more defensible, because, at the end of the day, it isn’t saying anything.

Edited June 3, 2019 by mattyt36

[H-Town Man]

4 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

 

H-Town, if you want to waste air and bytes arguing semantics, then please be my guest. The truth of the matter is HoustonFirst is already talking about the cap park being their next and most important project if the realignment proceeds, and other relevant and high profile organizations with political clout like the Downtown District are on board. It’s not much of a leap to assume that something this high profile as a small part of a multibillion project will proceed in some form JUST LIKE IT WAS in your Klyde Warren example. Now as for miles and miles of cap parks shown in some of the conceptual plans, well, to quote someone else on here, “I wouldn’t hold my breath.”

 

I’m sorry that doesn’t jibe with Jeff Speck’s (or apparently your) view of the world. Saying “I wouldn’t hold my breath” in the context of the momentum that’s already building is, IMO, baseless.  

 

Saying "I wouldn't hold my breath" simply implies a reasonable level of caution. I certainly hope that something gets built, and would put the likelihood of some form of deck park at greater than 50/50. When the Buffalo Bayou Master Plan came out in 2003 I was excited at the plan for the North Canal, and now 16 years later we are still hoping that the North Canal gets funded. Luckily I did not hold my breath.

 

[mattyt36]

2 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Saying "I wouldn't hold my breath" simply implies a reasonable level of caution. I certainly hope that something gets built, and would put the likelihood of some form of deck park at greater than 50/50. When the Buffalo Bayou Master Plan came out in 2003 I was excited at the plan for the North Canal, and now 16 years later we are still hoping that the North Canal gets funded. Luckily I did not hold my breath.

 

 

Well even in that context, look at what DID get built, which is exactly what I’m saying.

 

And don’t forget the fact that this will be an ANCILLARY project to a major redevelopment, which is a tremendous difference.

Edited June 3, 2019 by mattyt36

[CaptainJilliams]

5 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Saying "I wouldn't hold my breath" simply implies a reasonable level of caution. I certainly hope that something gets built, and would put the likelihood of some form of deck park at greater than 50/50. When the Buffalo Bayou Master Plan came out in 2003 I was excited at the plan for the North Canal, and now 16 years later we are still hoping that the North Canal gets funded. Luckily I did not hold my breath.

 

 

I thought in another thread it was discussed in a recent city meeting that funding had been met for the north canal (if we are talking about the one near UHD and downtown).

 

I might be crazy, but if I can find that thread I'll try to quote it. Still, I don't believe there was any word on when the canal would actually get built.

[H-Town Man]

6 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

 

Well even in that context, look at what DID get built, which is exactly what I’m saying.

 

And don’t forget the fact that this will be an ANCILLARY project to a major redevelopment, which is a tremendous difference.

 

The analogy was between the park cap and the North Canal. Both similarly high-cost projects.

 

2 minutes ago, CaptainJilliams said:

 

I thought in another thread it was discussed in a recent city meeting that funding had been met for the north canal (if we are talking about the one near UHD and downtown).

 

I might be crazy, but if I can find that thread I'll try to quote it. Still, I don't believe there was any word on when the canal would actually get built.

 

Last I saw someone had a map of projects and the North Canal was on the planned but not yet funded list.

 

[CaptainJilliams]

17 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

The analogy was between the park cap and the North Canal. Both similarly high-cost projects.

 

 

Last I saw someone had a map of projects and the North Canal was on the planned but not yet funded list.

 

 

I did some poking around and I found it in The Pierce Elevated/I-59 Redesign thread: 

 

 

If you go down to @Triton's post from 09-04-2018, he listed these 2 points under the images he posted, I believe it was from a city development meeting:

 

"Build the North Canal. Out of all the proposals presented tonight, is the one that has funding after the bond passed. The Planning Commission said they want to get the design down first and want people's inputs on the design. They presented several previously proposed since the grand master plan back in 2002."

 

"Only thing to add is that most of these proposals so far do not have funding however after the bond passed, the canal has funding now but they are trying to figure out the best design and where to properly relocate the bus depot."

 

Again, we haven't really heard much since this meeting, so we will just have to wait and see where things currently sit.

Edited June 3, 2019 by CaptainJilliams

[mattyt36]

27 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

The analogy was between the park cap and the North Canal. Both similarly high-cost projects.

 

 

Last I saw someone had a map of projects and the North Canal was on the planned but not yet funded list.

 

 

Well, why not make an analogy with Buffalo Bayou Park?  Or Discovery Green?  Or the Memorial Park project?

[H-Town Man]

24 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

 

Well, why not make an analogy with Buffalo Bayou Park?  Or Discovery Green?  Or the Memorial Park project?

 

Because a park renovation or construction of a new park is not as unusual or high cost as something like a park cap, which is more comparable in that respect to a new canal being built. Notice how few freeway park caps there are in the world, versus the total number of parks, which is much larger. I would feel much safer holding my breath for a park renovation than for a park being built over a freeway that may not even be constructed as planned.

 

[mattyt36]

8 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Because a park renovation or construction of a new park is not as unusual or high cost as something like a park cap, which is more comparable in that respect to a new canal being built. Notice how few freeway park caps there are in the world, versus the total number of parks, which is much larger. I would feel much safer holding my breath for a park renovation than for a park being built over a freeway that may not even be constructed as planned.

 

 

I thought the problem was the cost.  Now it's just because it's a cap park.  By your standard, is the North Canal a cap park?!  Good Lord.

Edited June 3, 2019 by mattyt36

[H-Town Man]

12 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

 

I thought the problem was the cost.  Now it's just because it's a cap park.  By your standard, is the North Canal a cap park?!  Good Lord.

 

"Unusual or high cost." The two kind of go together. We have already debated whether a nine-figure park cap is "most definitely" going to happen, now you want to debate about whether my reminiscence of getting excited about the North Canal in 2003 is a perfect analogy. "Good Lord," indeed.

 

[mattyt36]

24 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

 

"Unusual or high cost." The two kind of go together. We have already debated whether a nine-figure park cap is "most definitely" going to happen, now you want to debate about whether my reminiscence of getting excited about the North Canal in 2003 is a perfect analogy. "Good Lord," indeed.

 

 

I've learned word choice is very important to you . . . 

[Luminare]

On 6/3/2019 at 2:20 PM, H-Town Man said:

 

"Unusual or high cost." The two kind of go together. We have already debated whether a nine-figure park cap is "most definitely" going to happen, now you want to debate about whether my reminiscence of getting excited about the North Canal in 2003 is a perfect analogy. "Good Lord," indeed.

 

 

At least our sparring is more fun than this haha. We disagree on many things, but one thing we can most definitely agree is that pulling up a dead comment from 2003 is a bit daft and ridiculous. I know I've changed opinions on things even from last year haha. To say that you are the same person in 2003, so its right to pull this up in a conversation like this, is childish on @mattyt36 part and is in no way productive in this conversation. This is why I'm not on Twitter for this very reason... @mattyt36 Can we put down the "past recount weapon" and address the @H-Town Man of 2019 please?

[H-Town Man]

13 hours ago, Luminare said:

 

At least our sparring is more fun than this haha. We disagree on many things, but one thing we can most definitely agree is that pulling up a dead comment from 2003 is a bit daft and ridiculous. I know I've changed opinions on things even from last year haha. To say that you are the same person in 2003, so its right to pull this up in a conversation like this, is childish on @mattyt36 part and is in no way productive in this conversation. This is why I'm not on Twitter for this very reason... @mattyt36 Can we put down the "past recount weapon" and address the @H-Town Man of 2019 please?

 

No, my reminiscence was about 2003 but the reminiscence happened in the thread above. Think the forum crashed in 2004 so 2003 comments are gone forever, sadly. Miss all those light rail debates.

 

Good to bury the hatchet.

 

[TheSirDingle]

Wonder what the market is looking like now? I would say the occupancy is looking at the high 80's, maybe even low 90's now. Considering Summer is the most popular time to move in, it might even be higher. 

Also it seems after Downtown's residential incentive, many more units are being built. Hopefully this is a sign that Downtown has a great market for residential. Going off the food hall boom, and amenities boom in general. It looks like Downtown is finally going into maximum overdrive, in terms of quality of life development. 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2019 by TheSirDingle

[TheSirDingle]

According to "Downtown at a glance: June 2019 edition" from www.downtowndistrict.org. Downtown's Core supposedly has a population of 10,964, with an estimated household population of 9,033. 

The number of households is 5,283, with the average holding 1.71 occupants. 

 

I'm assuming the household part is just apartments, and the rest of population is coming from properties like condos, and townhomes (or something else). There's also a plethora of other information inside the document, ranging anywhere from residential to transit. 

 

link to document: http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/downtown_at_a_glance_june_2019_final..pdf

 

So far Downtown is looking on the upside, and will hopefully get to the 24/7 pedestrian center soon. It's honestly a great time to be in, and around the core. 

[mattyt36]

1 hour ago, TheSirDingle said:

According to "Downtown at a glance: June 2019 edition" from www.downtowndistrict.org. Downtown's Core supposedly has a population of 10,964, with an estimated household population of 9,033. 

The number of households is 5,283, with the average holding 1.71 occupants. 

 

I'm assuming the household part is just apartments, and the rest of population is coming from properties like condos, and townhomes (or something else). There's also a plethora of other information inside the document, ranging anywhere from residential to transit. 

 

link to document: http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/downtown_at_a_glance_june_2019_final..pdf

 

So far Downtown is looking on the upside, and will hopefully get to the 24/7 pedestrian center soon. It's honestly a great time to be in, and around the core. 

 

I'm admittedly no demographer, but that's the first I've seen numbers presented that way.  What is the difference between the 10,964 population and a household population of 9,033?  Homeless?!

[H-Town Man]

49 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

 

I'm admittedly no demographer, but that's the first I've seen numbers presented that way.  What is the difference between the 10,964 population and a household population of 9,033?  Homeless?!

 

Or prisoners?

 

[mattyt36]

1 minute ago, H-Town Man said:

 

Or prisoners?

 

 

Hey there's a thought.  I bet that's it.  Thanks.

[TheSirDingle]

1 hour ago, mattyt36 said:

 

I'm admittedly no demographer, but that's the first I've seen numbers presented that way.  What is the difference between the 10,964 population and a household population of 9,033?  Homeless?!

I'm not sure, ik there aren't 1000+ homeless just in downtown. I'm sure they're not counting them in this though. Idk where that extra 1000+ people comes from, but it could be from something other than rentals. From the document I actually added up 6,665 residential units (page 12). While on page 4 they say there's only 6,086 residential units in the core. Could they not be counting non-rental units in the household category? Also what's the prisoner population in downtown?

Edited July 3, 2019 by TheSirDingle

[dbigtex56]

Hotel guests?

 

[mattyt36]

I am reminded of Arrested Development and George Sr’s former employee who is brought in at key times to teach a lesson ... “And that is why you always source your data ...”

 

I agree with TheSirDingle that I don’t think it’s solely the homeless population. That’d be pretty sad if it’s 20% of the population. And thanks to 102 for pointing out it’s probably not prisoners (except maybe there’s a distinction between long-term prisoners and short-term?). I would doubt it’s hotels but that number does seem reasonable based on number of rooms.

 

The confusing part is that the only number that is sourced is the household population, and I assume HDMD refers to “Houston Downtown Management District,” meaning they came up with it and they didn’t come up with the other numbers. Which makes me think it did come from the Census/ACS by zip code. (Surely HDMD would be able to survey hotel “population”? And if it’s meant to be a definition of who is “present” during the day, why not add employment?) Which makes me think the difference has to be homeless, long-term prisoners, or some combination thereof.

 

From a marketing perspective, though, it certainly seems strange ... would imply an FAQ from interested parties is “Could you back out the prisoners and the homeless, please?”

Edited July 3, 2019 by mattyt36