Arrive Upper Kirby: Mixed-Use Development At 3200 Kirby Dr.

[Urbannizer]

Here we go, c/o Swamplot

 

http://swamplot.com/behold-the-rubble-of-the-kirby-dr-funeral-bars/2014-12-11/

 

 

 

[houstontexasjack]

And here we go. Kirby will be quite the road in a few years. We'll have to see whether Hanover can get financing for its proposed highrise as well. Even without that, I am quite excited about this development. 

[swtsig]

as of a few weeks ago i was told this one was still moving forward but we've seen one hell of a decline in crude even since then... let's see what happens.

[Luminare]

as of a few weeks ago i was told this one was still moving forward but we've seen one hell of a decline in crude even since then... let's see what happens.

 

...yeah because they are just bulldozing everything just for the fun of it, right?

[swtsig]

...yeah because they are just bulldozing everything just for the fun of it, right?

 

yeah, that's NEVER happened before

 

i'll spare you the lecture on why demolishing existing structures - especially if the proposed development gets delayed - is in the developers financial favor.

[KinkaidAlum]

People don't like to hear it, but SWTsig speaks the truth. We're still trying to rebuild the scars left from the mass destruction of structures in the 70s and early 80s.

 

[swtsig]

From someone who works in the industry.....grow the F up people. Oh woe is us! Freakin pathetic...

 

you're the only one being dramatic here... i was just making a comment about the project's likelihood.

 

whether you want to hear it or not a lot of these projects will get shelved. it's a reality. it's fact. get used to it. no one is looking for pity; rather we're trying to shed some insight. need you reminding that this is the GOING UP section.... discussing whether or not these projects actual GO UP is a fairly relevant topic.

 

i have better things to do than go in cirlces talking about projects that will never see the light of day... ymmv though.

[bachanon]

upper kirby is a tony strip (is that word still used?).

https://www.wordnik.com/words/tony

[Luminare]

you're the only one being dramatic here... i was just making a comment about the project's likelihood.

 

whether you want to hear it or not a lot of these projects will get shelved. it's a reality. it's fact. get used to it. no one is looking for pity; rather we're trying to shed some insight. need you reminding that this is the GOING UP section.... discussing whether or not these projects actual GO UP is a fairly relevant topic.

 

i have better things to do than go in cirlces talking about projects that will never see the light of day... ymmv though.

 

Look if you want to waste your time talking about all the numbers of ways a project will never get built, never will see the light of day then go ahead my friend.

 

Lol Urbanizzer will be out of the job with that attitude. Oh what would he do with his day!

 

I'll be over here talking about what we can build, what we might build, what we should, could, would build, what they say we couldn't build, but we did it anyway, and could never be built.....but would be awesome if it did.

 

So I agree with you. Lets better utilize our time to discuss this project which is currently being built and will see the light of day because as I see it....it's still "going up". The day it gets put into your dreaded 'canceled column' we will mourn the lose of what could have been great....and then quickly discuss the fabulous future of what will be next.

 

Also technically a large portion of these projects might not see the light of day, there are thousands that never leave boards that most people here never ever hear about, but that makes them unworthy of discussion? Unworthy of our attention? Unworthy of inspection/analysis? Unworthy of our time? I don't know if you have noticed, but architecture is a business of potential, hypothetical, theoretical. We don't deal in absolute's or guarantees (the insurance company does that ). I'm sorry that it's not a sure thing from which you feel like you can properly waste your time on. Because we all know that when you are on the internet you are doing something that isn't wasting your time... Why are you on an architecture forum then? That's just baffling.

[toxtethogrady]

Here we go, c/o Swamplot

 

http://swamplot.com/behold-the-rubble-of-the-kirby-dr-funeral-bars/2014-12-11/

 

 

 

 

 

 

They taste as good as they crunch.

[Triton]

 

 

From someone who works in the industry.....

Luminare, I'm sorry, but you're saying you work in the real estate industry or oil industry? If it's the real estate industry, what swtsig is saying is very consistent with what everyone in the CRE industry is worried about right now.. if not publicly, internally they are. CBRE released a (internal?) report literally today (12/11/2014 now) how they have a positive view of the United States real estate market as a whole (lower oil prices = more consumer spending, possibly increased spending on buying homes and on renovations); however, Houston is now one of the very dark spots. Doesn't matter if oil prices recover shortly... this drop has spooked many investors. 2015 is going to be a tough year. We'll have all these continued construction projects, but don't expect much newer development to materialize. It's a hard truth to shallow... your remarks are very similar to the same comments I saw in this forum in early September 2008 and, during that time, I doubted all the naysayers. I don't think it will be that dramatic at all but a slowdown is absolutely in our midst. Though this project is beautiful, it probably won't make it through. But here's hoping for the best! 

[por favor gracias]

I think someone should page this guy...he might know something we don't.

 

Edited December 12, 2014 by por favor gracias

[Houston?]

Luminare, I'm sorry, but you're saying you work in the real estate industry or oil industry? If it's the real estate industry, what swtsig is saying is very consistent with what everyone in the CRE industry is worried about right now.. if not publicly, internally they are. CBRE released a (internal?) report literally today (12/11/2014 now) how they have a positive view of the United States real estate market as a whole (lower oil prices = more consumer spending, possibly increased spending on buying homes and on renovations); however, Houston is now one of the very dark spots. Doesn't matter if oil prices recover shortly... this drop has spooked many investors. 2015 is going to be a tough year. We'll have all these continued construction projects, but don't expect much newer development to materialize. It's a hard truth to shallow... your remarks are very similar to the same comments I saw in this forum in early September 2008 and, during that time, I doubted all the naysayers. I don't think it will be that dramatic at all but a slowdown is absolutely in our midst. Though this project is beautiful, it probably won't make it through. But here's hoping for the best! 

 

How is that with anticipated 70,000-60,000 additional jobs in that year?

['Stonian]

Luminare, I'm sorry, but you're saying you work in the real estate industry or oil industry? If it's the real estate industry, what swtsig is saying is very consistent with what everyone in the CRE industry is worried about right now.. if not publicly, internally they are. CBRE released a (internal?) report literally today (12/11/2014 now) how they have a positive view of the United States real estate market as a whole (lower oil prices = more consumer spending, possibly increased spending on buying homes and on renovations); however, Houston is now one of the very dark spots. Doesn't matter if oil prices recover shortly... this drop has spooked many investors. 2015 is going to be a tough year. We'll have all these continued construction projects, but don't expect much newer development to materialize. It's a hard truth to shallow... your remarks are very similar to the same comments I saw in this forum in early September 2008 and, during that time, I doubted all the naysayers. I don't think it will be that dramatic at all but a slowdown is absolutely in our midst. Though this project is beautiful, it probably won't make it through. But here's hoping for the best! 

 

Thanks for the heads up on the release of the CBRE report Triton but I'm with Luminare on this one. I used to enjoy swtsig's posts because it was obvious that he/she worked in the CRE industry and was somewhat knowledgable of market conditions. However throughout this tremendous boom of the last couple of years, swtsig has repeatedly been 'negative nancy' more often than not. He comes across as someone too busy looking for signs of a bust to even enjoy the boom.

 

This is but one example earlier this year that he alluded to a major tenant/potential tenant abandoning space in the Samsung/Briarlake building in Westchase that he has yet to ever follow-up on with who he was referring to:

 

swtsig                                                          Full Member

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• 1329 posts

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Posted Sunday, February 9, 2014 at 8:13 PM

brijonmang, on 08 Feb 2014 - 10:09 AM, said:

Is this the Westchase project you alluded to as losing a major tenant in that west Houston core thread?

Negative. 

 

 

Maybe swtsig's career involves looking for signs of a slow down to insure that his employer is never surprised or caught off guard holding depressed real estate, but I have to take most of his doom and gloom comments with a grain a salt considering even in the best of times, he's overly cautious.

 

As for all the hoopla over oil price declines right now, I am concerned because Houston still runs on oil, but not overly concerned because its mostly self inflicted from the oil industry itself - a simple Saudi vs U.S. price war to maintain market share.

 

It's reassuring to remember that Houston still grew at a good clip from 2004-2008 when oil prices hoovered in the $50-$60 range and even more recently when natural gas prices have experienced historic lows. It's also important to remember that lower oil/natural gas prices will be a boon to many of the chemical projects that are set to start soon along the gulf coast that will employ thousands. Additionally, after a few years of moderate growth, the Texas Medical Center is set to start some significant projects.

 

Regarding oil specifically, if prices get low enough somebody will blink and cut production to stabilize prices. Sure there will be a slow down and some projects curtailed, but lets wait for those shoes to drop. I'll remain optimistic that even in slower growth times there will be a flight to quality and the best projects (ie. those around Upper Kirby, Downtown, Uptown, River Oaks District, City Centre, The Woodlands, and Sugarland) will still proceed in phases.

 

Apologies for the long post..., just my 2 cents.

Edited December 12, 2014 by 'Stonian

[Avossos]

I like this building(s). I think it is a good concept. That has value even if the market cools a bit. I hope this still is on track.

In terms of swtsig... I appreciate his insight. I don't really appreciate the way he chooses to communicate. But I'm an adult... No sense getting mad at an Internet personality.

As a young person, I prefer to wait and see how the market responds to everything. I have a hard time buying into a doom situation. In general, I feel strongly the city will continue to make positive steps forward and grow / add density / urbanize.

[Luminare]

The problem is not with swtsig's insight. We all appreciate his opinions because of the field he is in, but I don't care about real estate, the oil industry, etc.... I only care about one thing and that's Architecture and because this building is still scheduled to go up I think thats a topic worth discussing rather than all the industries that circle it because at the end of the day that's what this forum is about, Architecture. Everything else goes into it and it has too for it to get off the ground, but the fun thing about architecture is that it can be discussed without all those things and be touched on purely for architectures sake which I think is sometimes missed here. If I want to talk real estate then I will go somewhere to talk real estate. If I want to talk about oil then I will go somewhere to talk about oil. Hell architect's thrive on surrounding themselves with experts from other fields because by default we are generalist by nature. I really do appreciate swtsig's insight on the matter, but it's the timing of the insight. I mean the project literally just begun and already he foretells of it's impeding doom and that's a bit daft. Now if the project got canceled and you have insider info on why, how, and what then that's the perfect time to play that card, but why now? Why not shelve comments like that until they actually happen and for now discuss the actual project, the actual building?! This isn't for this thread either it should be for all of them. Just because you have the opinion at hand doesn't mean you have to use it. Many of these kinds of assessments are untimely and purely speculative. When the spaghetti hits the fan then we will deal with that then. By being a professional you should know when it is best to properly display your knowledge of a particular topic because since you do work in that field your comments hold weight!

Edited December 12, 2014 by Luminare

[Montrose1100]

I enjoy discussing architecture too, but can we please not run off one of our credible insiders? Swtsig, you can be a negative nancy all you want, as long as you keep the info flowing.

[swtsig]

Reality = doom and gloom

Got it.

However I find it humorous that the comment I made that sparked this conversation specifically mentioned that last I had heard this project was moving forward yet I'm getting reamed for simply questioning if that is still the case due to the economic environment. Not even predicting it wouldn't get built, just lobbing a harmless question and boom - here comes the cavalry. Never mind the fact that in the past week I've mentioned two very cool projects in the works that have had zero public run (to my knowledge at least).

I also find it humorous that just a couple of weeks ago I was labeled as the "Matt Bullard of HAIF" since I was a complete houston homer that had blinders on to houstonp problems in Houston Boom thread. This place is great.

One last thing - the reason I often come off as negative is bc very few people on here actually care about learning how these projects come together or the machinations involved to get a development moving forward. There's a real "head in the sand" mentality - as if you people believe that if you ignore complexities of financing and analyzing and budgeting a project - something every single project must go through - that somehow things will just magically work and you can gleam over photos of cranes and mat pours and soil samples. I get that this is an architecture board and that many of you simply don't care but it's funny to see the folks with almost zero frame of reference in development (and believe me I'm no expert) label those of us that do as "doom and gloom"

Oh Ya.... Stonian.... It was Samsung. Happy now?

Edited December 12, 2014 by swtsig

[por favor gracias]

I think that it's important to have the insight swtsig brings to this forum, and I'm sure we all appreciate it on some level. I understand that some people (including myself) don't care as much about the ins and outs of the way these projects happen as much as I'm sure some others do, but I certainly don't mind reading it...and then when I realize it's not my particular cup of tea, moving on. There are people on here who care very much about these things as well as the architecture and location parts of it. The same goes for oil prices. While they may not be directly the preferred topic of conversation, and I personally don't care to read some of it...it does have a place for discussion in this forum (although it can get to feel like too much at times, but that's just the nature of human beings on the internet). 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2014 by por favor gracias

[Triton]

How is that with anticipated 70,000-60,000 additional jobs in that year?

 

As you quoted me, I said a slowdown was in our midst. Not a collapse. If it really is 60,000, the job growth just got slashed in half. Like I said, investors have been spooked. They are watching this fall closely. This funny stat keeps getting tossed around on this forum that only 40% of the Houston market is the oil industry... yea? What about the 60% that is indirectly affected by this drop... the real estate market, the construction market, the local banking/financing industry, the retail market where all those oil employees spend their hard earned cash...

 

 

 

Thanks for the heads up on the release of the CBRE report Triton but I'm with Luminare on this one.

I work for CBRE. People spend their lives developing that report. The stats were clear that a slowdown is ahead. It included the possibility of a substantial drop in the housing market.

 

 

 

swtsig has repeatedly been 'negative nancy' more often than not. He comes across as someone too busy looking for signs of a bust to even enjoy the boom.

I would have to disagree. Most people on this forum were quite positive about this market just 5 months back. Hell, I'm still bullish for the Houston market long term but it is so incredibly obvious that a slowdown will occur for 2015.

 

 

 

It's reassuring to remember that Houston still grew at a good clip from 2004-2008 when oil prices hoovered in the $50-$60 range

That's when oil was at its peak!! I remember paying $100 to fill up my truck during the summer of 2008.

 

 

 

There's a real "head in the sand" mentality - as if you people believe that if you ignore complexities of financing and analyzing and budgeting a project - something every single project must go through - that somehow things will just magically work and you can gleam over photos of cranes and mat pours and soil samples. 

I think you hit the nail on the head. This forum is more about design and less about the economics behind a project. Hell, economics 101 seems to go out the door on this forum most of the time. Everyone is just racing to build supertalls!! Forget economics, we should build a 300 story tower so we can say we are the tallest!!! YEAH!

 

It's okay. We can point back to these comments in a year, swtsig. 

[Montrose1100]

Ultimately, this project may or may not happen

Quit being such suckers all the time and think for yourselves for once. It's really pathetic to blindly accept someone's opinion on the internet as something that can't be questioned.

Thank you for the only two possibilities in the universe. 

 

Why have you been such an anti-swtsig? Does he work for your competitor or something? If someone provides some insider information, and we have hopes that it will be true, doesn't make us Sheeple. If swtsig was alluring us into a cult, he would be proven wrong in time. Many have tried this before. There were several posters a few years ago that pulled renderings out of their magic hats and promised glitz (Skye, Rise, and Edge), that proved to be absolutely nothing.

[Avossos]

We got a lot of great projects in the past year. Hoping that this one (Kirby Thor) and others continue as planned (Hines Market Square for example).

Slow down isn't fun to think about, but life goes on and we will see more things happen. I think M-59 or Bridgeview whatever seems unlikely as does the 41 story market square office.

My oil company thinks worst case scenario 2 years of low oil prices.. Worst case (so they say, and I'm inclined to believe them)

Edited December 12, 2014 by Avossos

[Triton]

Slow down isn't fun to think about, but life goes on and we will see more things happen. I think M-59 or Bridgeview whatever seems unlikely as does the 41 story market square office.

My oil company thinks worst case scenario 2 years of low oil prices.. Worst case (so they say, and I'm inclined to believe them)

 

Exactly. Hopefully most of these projects just get delayed for some time. 

[bobruss]

This unfortunately is the nature of the oil industry and the cyclical economy Houston has to deal with. We have been extremely fortunate to have had the growth that has come over the last two years. Its been widespread and has added a whole new texture to the fabric that is Houston. We have seen astronomical development in every segment of our city. We are in the process of creating two wonderful additions to the inner city that will contribute to the quality of life in Buffalo Bayou and Herman Park. New museums are getting ready to start construction, a new arts center in Midtown a concert hall in Sugarland. The med center is set to build three new hospitals. Downtown  will actually have a much larger segment of residents that will continue to grow and help develop a sense of community in the heart of our city. We are going to get at least two new skyscrapers that will contributes to our ever expanding skyline and the uber development of the East side around the convention center will make that side of town seem electric. I guess what I'm trying to say is its been a really good run and it looks like now its time for a breather. 

It's just part of our culture that we have these swings. The good thing is that we have quite a few very interesting projects to watch while things slow down and maybe by the time this wave of construction is coming to an end oil will be up again and the next wave will come in.

I think everyone just needs to appreciate all this activity but understand that every aspect of the growth process is integral to the other. 

The more information we receive from any of our members should be processed as helpful information. 

This is an open forum and I always thought as a whole this group was above the pettiness that seems more appropriate on some of the political sites out there.

I appreciate everyones opinion but lets try and be open to everyones knowledge. You might even learn something.

[j_cuevas713]

This unfortunately is the nature of the oil industry and the cyclical economy Houston has to deal with. We have been extremely fortunate to have had the growth that has come over the last two years. Its been widespread and has added a whole new texture to the fabric that is Houston. We have seen astronomical development in every segment of our city. We are in the process of creating two wonderful additions to the inner city that will contribute to the quality of life in Buffalo Bayou and Herman Park. New museums are getting ready to start construction, a new arts center in Midtown a concert hall in Sugarland. The med center is set to build three new hospitals. Downtown  will actually have a much larger segment of residents that will continue to grow and help develop a sense of community in the heart of our city. We are going to get at least two new skyscrapers that will contributes to our ever expanding skyline and the uber development of the East side around the convention center will make that side of town seem electric. I guess what I'm trying to say is its been a really good run and it looks like now its time for a breather. 

It's just part of our culture that we have these swings. The good thing is that we have quite a few very interesting projects to watch while things slow down and maybe by the time this wave of construction is coming to an end oil will be up again and the next wave will come in.

I think everyone just needs to appreciate all this activity but understand that every aspect of the growth process is integral to the other. 

The more information we receive from any of our members should be processed as helpful information. 

This is an open forum and I always thought as a whole this group was above the pettiness that seems more appropriate on some of the political sites out there.

I appreciate everyones opinion but lets try and be open to everyones knowledge. You might even learn something.

 

Very well put. Houston is hitting a development phase that older cities hit almost 150 years before. The great thing is that because of the most recent wave of new development, I really see the core of how Houston continues to build, to completely change. It's a very exciting time as we begin to see the influence many of these denser more urban developments have on their neighborhoods. A perfect example is Rice Village, which is overhauling its entire design.

[por favor gracias]

Ultimately, this project may or may not happen, but the demo is a lot more reassuring than any free, unsolicited 'analysis' that swtig or anyone else anonymously brings to the internet. Someone is spending actual cash on the demo (that is a good sign) - all swtsig brings is another irresponsible opinion that means nothing to people who are actually putting this project together. No one is consulting with swtig on this project and he is just as much in the dark as anyone else who surfs the net.

Not saying that demo automatically = construction. And he is very right when he says that demos happen all the time without a project coming to fruition. But I would put a hell of a lot more faith in what the developers are doing than anything I read from swtsig or anyone else that has nothing better to do than to post at HAIF all day long.

Quit being such suckers all the time and think for yourselves for once. It's really pathetic to blindly accept someone's opinion on the internet as something that can't be questioned.

 

What exactly is "irresponsible" about this statement?

 

"As of a few weeks ago i was told this one was still moving forward but we've seen one hell of a decline in crude even since then... let's see what happens."

 

Not trying to pile on, but you just acknowledged that demos happen all the time without a project coming to fruition. I don't think anyone is "blindly accepting" what swtsig is saying either. It's not even a matter of opinion anyways. His comment comes off to me as a simple wait and see approach. I don't see what all the fuss is about here. Perhaps just a misunderstanding or lumping the tone of previous comments in with this one, but that would be...dare I say..."irresponsible."

[por favor gracias]

This unfortunately is the nature of the oil industry and the cyclical economy Houston has to deal with. We have been extremely fortunate to have had the growth that has come over the last two years. Its been widespread and has added a whole new texture to the fabric that is Houston. We have seen astronomical development in every segment of our city. We are in the process of creating two wonderful additions to the inner city that will contribute to the quality of life in Buffalo Bayou and Herman Park. New museums are getting ready to start construction, a new arts center in Midtown a concert hall in Sugarland. The med center is set to build three new hospitals. Downtown  will actually have a much larger segment of residents that will continue to grow and help develop a sense of community in the heart of our city. We are going to get at least two new skyscrapers that will contributes to our ever expanding skyline and the uber development of the East side around the convention center will make that side of town seem electric. I guess what I'm trying to say is its been a really good run and it looks like now its time for a breather. 

It's just part of our culture that we have these swings. The good thing is that we have quite a few very interesting projects to watch while things slow down and maybe by the time this wave of construction is coming to an end oil will be up again and the next wave will come in.

I think everyone just needs to appreciate all this activity but understand that every aspect of the growth process is integral to the other. 

The more information we receive from any of our members should be processed as helpful information. 

This is an open forum and I always thought as a whole this group was above the pettiness that seems more appropriate on some of the political sites out there.

I appreciate everyones opinion but lets try and be open to everyones knowledge. You might even learn something.

 

Could not have said that better. Very well put and pretty darn classy too!

[Timoric]

-

Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric

[swtsig]

What exactly is "irresponsible" about this statement?

 

"As of a few weeks ago i was told this one was still moving forward but we've seen one hell of a decline in crude even since then... let's see what happens."

 

Not trying to pile on, but you just acknowledged that demos happen all the time without a project coming to fruition. I don't think anyone is "blindly accepting" what swtsig is saying either. It's not even a matter of opinion anyways. His comment comes off to me as a simple wait and see approach. I don't see what all the fuss is about here. Perhaps just a misunderstanding or lumping the tone of previous comments in with this one, but that would be...dare I say..."irresponsible."

 

ya the "irresponsible" comment really threw me for a loop.... i guess the dude has a hard-on for me something fierce. even when i'm simply pontificating on a development he spews a vitrol-laden rant about who knows what. i find it odd that he has "blindly accepted" my role as a complete fraud yet puts everyone else on blast (i guess?) for uhh.... allowing me to post? reading my posts?? not sure.

['Stonian]

Triton, while you may have been paying $100 to fill up your truck in summer of 2008, oil prices were no where near $100/barrel from 2004-2008. Prices mostly exploded after the shale revolution of 2009-2012 began.

 

I happen to be one of the forumers here who care both about the architecture AND economics of developments around the city. I work in single family residential development and we sell a good chunk of our homes to energy executives. I rarely post, but I certainly read others' posts every few days because I'm extremely interested in land planning, economics, development, and architecture and my lively hood depends on it.

 

What I've noticed is some of the younger posters here care little about the economics and are mostly skyscraper enthusiast.  However, some of the more seasoned super posters are so tainted by the oil bust of the 80's that it's always in the back of their heads that a bust is right around the corner. So my apologies if I came across as disrespectful to swtig with my 'negative nancy' comment.  Even though I may have overreacted, I'm sure he knows where I'm coming from when I said there's a negative tone to most (not all) of his comments.

 

I can appreciate both perspectives which is why I enjoy HAIF so much. It's great to keep economics in perspective but it's also good to see new blood in Houston that's not scared to death to develop big projects. That gun-shy attitude has held back investment in Houston for 20-30 years.

 

NEWSFLASH: Houston is not the only city that goes through these real estate cycles. In fact only a handful of cities like NYC are diverse and stable enough to limit the extremes of cycles. It may be more pronounced here with our relationship to the energy industry but certainly not unique to Houston.

 

Our motto at my company is do well enough in the good times to carry us through the lean times, but surely the good times will come rolling around again. So just as there may be a bust around the corner, there may also be a boom coming right behind it!!!!  

Edited December 12, 2014 by 'Stonian