METRORail North Line

[Marcus Allen]

Thanks all. For personal reasons, I am all to ready to see that entire area, especially Cavalcade and Fulton revamped ASAP.

[livincinco]

Never mind. Answered my own question. The number 15 bus route will be discontinued because it duplicates the route of the North line. The current average workday ridership of the number 15 route is 2,281 and it saw a 10.3% increase in ridership over the last 12 months. I would argue that any consideration of ridership numbers for the North line should consider that amount as a shift in existing transit ridership rather than an increase.

The projected ridership at opening is 17,400 average weekday boardings which would be a net increase of approx. 15,000. Interested to see the actual numbers.

http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/TX_Houston_North_Corridor_LRT_complete_profile.pdf

METRO announced that first month ridership of 4,200 average weekday boardings exceeded first month projections. No mention of original forecast of 17,400 average weekday boardings.

http://www.rtands.com/index.php/passenger/rapid-transit-light-rail/first-month-ridership-surpasses-projections-on-houston-metros-north-line.html?channel=281

[cloud713]

idk where the 17,400 figure came from, but that doesnt sound nearly feasible unless they tear out quite a few houses/businesses along the north line to build dense mixed use developments, and develop the whole Hardy Yards site at Burnett Station.. id be surprised if the ridership numbers were 17,400 even in 10 years. there just isnt nearly enough development along the north line compared to the original Main St line, which runs through downtown, the museum district, the medical district, and Reliant Park.. 17,400 is almost half as many people that ride the original 8 mile stretch of track.

[livincinco]

idk where the 17,400 figure came from, but that doesnt sound nearly feasible unless they tear out quite a few houses/businesses along the north line to build dense mixed use developments, and develop the whole Hardy Yards site at Burnett Station.. id be surprised if the ridership numbers were 17,400 even in 10 years. there just isnt nearly enough development along the north line compared to the original Main St line, which runs through downtown, the museum district, the medical district, and Reliant Park.. 17,400 is almost half as many people that ride the original 8 mile stretch of track.

 

The 17,400 number is METRO's ridership projection based on their internal modeling of transportation demand.  That's the number that was submitted to the FTA (along with the 2030 projection) when requesting approval of federal funds.

 

Honestly, from what I've seen, it's a pretty common approach for transit agencies. 

 

- Create an initial forecast with very aggressive numbers to obtain funding.

- Modify those numbers down significantly and purge the initial forecast

- Publicize how much better than actuals are then the revised forecast.

[Slick Vik]

METRO announced that first month ridership of 4,200 average weekday boardings exceeded first month projections. No mention of original forecast of 17,400 average weekday boardings.

http://www.rtands.com/index.php/passenger/rapid-transit-light-rail/first-month-ridership-surpasses-projections-on-houston-metros-north-line.html?channel=281

The first few days it was over 20,000. I think the system will not have complete projected ridership until the university and uptown lines are complete.

[livincinco]

The first few days it was over 20,000. I think the system will not have complete projected ridership until the university and uptown lines are complete.

 

Any new system sees high usage during the first couple of days and then settles down after the initial excitement wears off, especially when free rides are offered during that time.  For reference, the 17,600 number was the first year ridership projection with full knowledge that the University and Uptown lines would not be completed.  The 2030 projection, which I'm assuming includes expectation that those lines would be complete, is for 29,000 average weekday boardings.

 

[kylejack]

We can check in again on first year performance in December of this year.

[JamesL]

On the ridership numbers, keep in mind no major bus network changes have been made yet. December will still be before System Reimagining is implemented.

[livincinco]

We can check in again on first year performance in December of this year.

 

Sure, but given that METRO is a public entity, it's completely reasonable to ask questions about how they arrived at those numbers, especially given that METRO's past track record doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

 

My primary questions to METRO would be as follows:

 

- What is the month by month projected ridership on the line?

- Is the projection of 17,600 for first year average weekday boardings still the official forecast?

- If so, what are the specific reasons to expect a 400% increase over current ridership throughout 2014?  (Assuming that part of this is expected additive ridership from East and Southeast lines)

- If not, what are the reasons that caused the ridership numbers to be adjusted and what are the new targets?

- Are the reasons for those adjustments specific to the North line or have they caused METRO to adjust ridership targets for other services?  If so, what are those adjustments?

- Have adjustments been made to METRO's forecasting methodology to account for these changes in future modelling?

 

In my opinion, those are legitimate questions for a stakeholder to ask of any project that has significant capital investment.  Given that this project used a significant amount of federal money, we're all stakeholders.

 

 

 

[mfastx]

Remember, for the Main street line, initial ridership numbers were a paltry 17,700 boardings/day for the first quarter of 2004. It took a few years for ridership to rise to current levels, and I expect the same thing to happen with this line.

[livincinco]

Remember, for the Main street line, initial ridership numbers were a paltry 17,700 boardings/day for the first quarter of 2004. It took a few years for ridership to rise to current levels, and I expect the same thing to happen with this line.

 

That's fair, but these are METRO's numbers not mine.  Not sure when these numbers were calculated, but it seems like they should have already been aware of the experience of the Main Street line at the point that these projections were made.

 

I can't find projections for the East line, but the METRO projection for the Southeast line was 17,200 average weekly boardings for year 1.

 

[cloud713]

I can't find projections for the East line, but the METRO projection for the Southeast line was 17,200 average weekly boardings for year 1.

 

weekly or weekday? if you meant weekday, no way that will happen. probably wouldnt even happen if the line was connected to Hobby. it should be higher than the North extention though i would think..

[livincinco]

weekly or weekday? if you meant weekday, no way that will happen. probably wouldnt even happen if the line was connected to Hobby. it should be higher than the North extention though i would think..

You're right. I meant weekday. I blame autocorrect.

[Houston19514]

That's fair, but these are METRO's numbers not mine.  Not sure when these numbers were calculated, but it seems like they should have already been aware of the experience of the Main Street line at the point that these projections were made.

 

I can't find projections for the East line, but the METRO projection for the Southeast line was 17,200 average weekly boardings for year 1.

 

 

Can you give us any links to these ridership projections?

[kylejack]

Can you give us any links to these ridership projections?

 

http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/TX_Houston_North_Corridor_LRT_complete_profile.pdf

And for SE: http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/TX_Houston_Southeast_Corridor_LRT_complete_profile.pdf

[Houston19514]

http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/TX_Houston_North_Corridor_LRT_complete_profile.pdf

And for SE: http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/TX_Houston_Southeast_Corridor_LRT_complete_profile.pdf

 

Thanks.

 

One note:  I believe their projections were based on all three of the new lines opening at approximately the same time, so this first year of the North extension will not benefit from the full network effect of the additional two new lines.

[Slick Vik]

Thanks.

One note: I believe their projections were based on all three of the new lines opening at approximately the same time, so this first year of the North extension will not benefit from the full network effect of the additional two new lines.

It will be really difficult to see the full impact of the lines without university and uptown lines.

[totheskies]

Well I wouldn't be surprised if the Southeast Line meets or exceeds those original projections.  Besides general neighborhood connections, this line will also connect the student populations of UofH, TSU and Yates High school to Downtown's central bus network.  Right now, they have to take busses to meet the Red Line, then get Downtown and eventually transfer to their needed bus.  The Southeast Line will take one significantly shorten the trip. 

 

For students that live on campus (UofH is now up to about 8,000 and TSU is getting close to 4,000), the Southeast Line will provide rail connections to shopping at the Northline mall, groceries at places like Randall's and Fiesta, and all of the other amenities in Downtown and the Med Center.  As a daily rider of the 42, I have no doubt that this line will be used even before the University Line is constructed. 

[august948]

Well I wouldn't be surprised if the Southeast Line meets or exceeds those original projections.  Besides general neighborhood connections, this line will also connect the student populations of UofH, TSU and Yates High school to Downtown's central bus network.  Right now, they have to take busses to meet the Red Line, then get Downtown and eventually transfer to their needed bus.  The Southeast Line will take one significantly shorten the trip. 

 

For students that live on campus (UofH is now up to about 8,000 and TSU is getting close to 4,000), the Southeast Line will provide rail connections to shopping at the Northline mall, groceries at places like Randall's and Fiesta, and all of the other amenities in Downtown and the Med Center.  As a daily rider of the 42, I have no doubt that this line will be used even before the University Line is constructed. 

 

It will also connect them to Phoenicia Market downtown.  I did that trip from UH last week via the 77 and a hop on the red line plus walking a couple of blocks.  Trip took about 30 mins, about half of that waiting on the 77 to show up.  On the SE line looks like that trip would only be 10 mins or less, not counting the wait time.

 

42 is a pretty good connection as well.  A couple of weeks ago it only took me about 15 mins or so to run from UH to the Kroger on Montrose.

[Slick Vik]

It will also connect them to Phoenicia Market downtown.  I did that trip from UH last week via the 77 and a hop on the red line plus walking a couple of blocks.  Trip took about 30 mins, about half of that waiting on the 77 to show up.  On the SE line looks like that trip would only be 10 mins or less, not counting the wait time.

 

42 is a pretty good connection as well.  A couple of weeks ago it only took me about 15 mins or so to run from UH to the Kroger on Montrose.

 

I think the most time spent is actually waiting for the buses themselves it seems.

[august948]

I think the most time spent is actually waiting for the buses themselves it seems.

 

Correct.  So what is the gold standard, then?  Max 10 min wait?  5 mins? 1?

 

[cloud713]

Build rail so the transit is on a timely schedule and doesn't have to fight traffic on the streets like busses. Heh

[august948]

Build rail so the transit is on a timely schedule and doesn't have to fight traffic on the streets like busses. Heh

 

Even at max buildout rail will only take over a few of the many bus routes.  Is the only timely schedule that matters the one on the rail line?  Having buses that run more frequently and/or more timely is going to be a much better improvement to the public transit here than laying rail.

[Slick Vik]

Correct.  So what is the gold standard, then?  Max 10 min wait?  5 mins? 1?

 

 

The best would be every 5 minutes, but I think 7-9 minute frequency is reasonable. Right now I see 18-40.

Even at max buildout rail will only take over a few of the many bus routes.  Is the only timely schedule that matters the one on the rail line?  Having buses that run more frequently and/or more timely is going to be a much better improvement to the public transit here than laying rail.

 

Frequency matters more than anything on every mode.

[august948]

The best would be every 5 minutes, but I think 7-9 minute frequency is reasonable. Right now I see 18-40.

 

Frequency matters more than anything on every mode.

 

So we double the number of buses on each route and we get between 7-9 and 15-20 minutes depending on which bus and route we're talking about since the general scheduled frequencies tend to be 15 and 30 mins.  We could triple the buses running on the 30 min routes if needed.  We could do that right now, just as quickly as bus companies can deliver the buses and we can hire the drivers.  Why wouldn't we do that instead of investing years and millions in rail projects that only serve a limited string of destinations?

 

[Slick Vik]

So we double the number of buses on each route and we get between 7-9 and 15-20 minutes depending on which bus and route we're talking about since the general scheduled frequencies tend to be 15 and 30 mins.  We could triple the buses running on the 30 min routes if needed.  We could do that right now, just as quickly as bus companies can deliver the buses and we can hire the drivers.  Why wouldn't we do that instead of investing years and millions in rail projects that only serve a limited string of destinations?

 

 

Both should be done together. Nobody is saying don't invest in bus system. But it should be hand in hand with BRT and rail. So the system itself grows.

[livincinco]

Correct.  So what is the gold standard, then?  Max 10 min wait?  5 mins? 1?

 

 

Jarrett Walker calls for a 6 min frequency for buses.

 

[livincinco]

Both should be done together. Nobody is saying don't invest in bus system. But it should be hand in hand with BRT and rail. So the system itself grows.

 

Which gets back to finite resources.  I think that everyone agrees that there is not enough funding to fulfill all transit needs in the immediate future so all investment is, by definition, removing needed resource from another.  Given that, I believe that over the next five years, METRO should invest heavily in bus and BRT to provide improved access and frequency, and evaluate opportunities to continue to acquire potential rail corridors where such acquisition has potential future benefit.  LRT and commuter rail should remain in a "plan and analyze" stage during that time.

[kylejack]

Which gets back to finite resources.  I think that everyone agrees that there is not enough funding to fulfill all transit needs in the immediate future so all investment is, by definition, removing needed resource from another.  Given that, I believe that over the next five years, METRO should invest heavily in bus and BRT to provide improved access and frequency, and evaluate opportunities to continue to acquire potential rail corridors where such acquisition has potential future benefit.  LRT and commuter rail should remain in a "plan and analyze" stage during that time.

 

Or: Secure more funding.

[livincinco]

Or: Secure more funding.

 

I'd still argue that increasing a BRT network makes more sense than building rail at this point of time.  For example, if you assume a 4x cost for LRT vs. BRT (which is pretty conservative), I would have much rather have had 60 miles of BRT than the 15 miles of LRT that the three new lines are contributing.