Camden Midtown: Multifamily At 2303 Louisiana St.

[Trophy Property]

RayLSU,

  I agree. I live in MIdtown. I rent. I would love to buy. And can afford to. But at the end of the day, I'm not convinced. I love living in this area, but I'm not convinced that this is the spot that we think it is. Or, rather, I'm not convinced that OTHERS think that this is the spot (which, at the end of the day, is all that matters in real estate).

  Having said that, I don't think we should "execute" the homeless people, as someone else suggested.

  I just don't think the Houston condo/townhouse market is what we think it is.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I too live in Midtown. I bought my townhouse at a time when I was working nearby at the American General Center, was single, and was going out alot.

Fast forward two years. I am now living with my Fiance, work in the Galleria, and rarely hit the bars anymore. Living in Midtown is not the same for me. I think If I had been working in the Galleria and been living with someone when I was looking to buy I might have looked elsewhere. I love the area, but I also am concerned with the pace at which Perry and Urban Lofts have been developing.

I own a Perry, mainly because I could not afford anything in the higher price range, but I think they have really over built the area. I think slower development would be a better alternative in Midtown. With low interest rates, these builders are able to churn out the product way to fast and out pace the absorbtion.

I am terrified of the future. It is already hard enough for re-sales in the area. If interest rates spike we (midtown owners) may find ourselves with an over abundance of product and no willing buyers. If I were single and wanted to stay in the area I would be OK with waiting it out, but I do not want to raise a family in a 2150 SF Townhouse with no backyard. My fingers are crossed that I will not get caught in a bad period.

With all that said I am thinking of re-doing the kitchen. I must be a lunatic.

[MidtownCoog]

It is already hard enough for re-sales in the area.

My Perry sold in less than a week. We had three offers in three days.

This was in May 04.

[midtownguy]

Trophy, Thanks for the heads up. I'm single, and may wait it out. I love midtown.

But, as I said in another post, the problem is that as soon as a a perry townhome goes up, a person or a company goes in and buys them pre-construction, then "flips" them for a higher price. The New York TImes recently wrote about this practice and how it's becoming a major way for people to invest.

But there are a few problems with this:

1) Certain people, who can afford a $140,000 to $200,000 townhouse, and look FORWARD to the decent prices, are automatically priced out of the market. That $150,000 townhouse suddenly went up to $210,000 (this happened to me recently).

2) Houston is not a condo or townhouse market. There are too many single famly house options. And single family homes sell QUICK in this market. After a certain price point, people are willing to say screw it, and spend that kind of money in a MORE ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD (or up-and-coming neighborhood, like the East End) where they know it's an investment.

MidtownCoog, I think it's great your place sold quick. But I think that, in the future, that may be the exception in midtown rather than the rule.

My point is this: I love midtown, but it's not a stable enough neighborhood to make it worth paying more than $200,000 for a place.

[midtown_resident]

  MidtownCoog, I think it's great your place sold quick. But I think that, in the future, that may be the exception in midtown rather than the rule.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree. MidtownCoog is not an exception at all. Those that list their homes at a fair market price will sell quickly in midtown. The problem is that people are expecting massive appreciation so early on before the land is built out...so they price their 165k purchased Perry townhome at 250k...when in reality, they might be able to expect 200k...

[Houston19514]

Trophy, Thanks for the heads up. I'm single, and may wait it out. I love midtown.

  But, as I said in another post, the problem is that as soon as a a perry townhome goes up, a person or a company goes in and buys them pre-construction, then "flips" them for a higher price. The New York TImes recently wrote about this practice and how it's becoming a major way for people to invest.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is hard to imagine that there is any significant amount of "flipping" going on in Midtown. If new construction can be sold for higher prices, wouldn't Perry and the other builders price them accordingly?

[rantanamo]

Some points:

- State-Thomas is the Uptown neighborhood everyone is referring to that recieved the TIF in the late 80s. Its what many think of when they think Uptown Dallas.

- Uptown consists of main areas: Lo-Mac(Crescent area), Victory, State-Thomas, McKinney Ave Corridor, Quadrangle/gallery area and West Village area. Each have sizeable populations and actually compete against each other. Yes, Uptown became Uptown again in the 80s. The name however dates back to Freeman's Uptown North Dallas. in 1873.

Uptown's Competition

- Uptown has a ton of competition in the metroplex. Consider that: Knox Park has probably 3 or 4 times as many townhomes as Uptown in a similar sized area as is building more of them. Bryan Place is quickly catching up as well.

- Turtle Creek has more residential high rises than Uptown. Las Colinas has one, Far North Dallas has 2, and Preston Center has 4. Even Oak Cliff is renovating one. Uptown currently has 2 open residential high rises, but will have 4 by April and several by 2007. Their biggest competition is Downtown and Turtle Creek. And that is a ton of competition. Especially considering downtown is in a conversion boom and even broke ground on a new tower yesterday.

- Urban type villages full of Post and Gables type properties like the West Village State-Thomas are all over the metroplex. Mockingbird Station, Bryan Place, Farmers Market, Legacy Town Center, Addison Square East Side Village, now Las Colinas, Southlake Town Center, Frisco Square, Austin Ranch and Sundance are all direct competitiors, marketing to the same demographics. Uptown simply has beat them to the punch and does it better.

- Even newcomers will provide the next competition. Look out for The Cedars, Park Lane Place, Farmer's Branch Town Center and the fill-out of Las Colinas.

competition is not a problem at all

- Lots of new hotels in Dallas were mentioned. This is working because these aren't huge 1,000 room hotels. They are "only in Dallas" or "only one in Texas" type boutiques with much fewer rooms. In most cases they are coupled with residences. The Mansion on Turtle Creek is smaller and has 3 residential towers with another hoping to break ground soon. The Ritz-Carlton will have like 100 rooms with 70 residences. The ZaZa is very small with condos attached. The Stoneleigh is already pretty small and will add residential. The W have a small unique portion of hotel with residential on top and another attached tower. These are all niche hotels as opposed to the behemoths downtown like the Hyatt Reunion and Adam's Mark. That's why many here fear the 1200 room behemoth the City wants to attach to the convention center. Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4 smaller attached boutiques with incredible service would work much better.

Anyways, back to the Houston stuff. Just wanted to clear that all up.

[midtownguy]

It is hard to imagine that there is any significant amount of "flipping" going on in Midtown.  If new construction can be sold for higher prices, wouldn't Perry and the other builders price them accordingly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Houston19514, I have no reason to lie. Go around looking at townhouses in Midtown that are for sale. There is a HUGE amount of flipping going on. It's actually creating a townhouse bubble, I think. As I said, there's an oversupply of townhouses already, and once a townhouse reaches a certain price point, most people are going to pass and just buy a single family home in an established neighborhood.

That's why I think Perry and the other builders do NOT price them higher. They know what the midtown market can bear, and that's townhouses for roughly $150,000 to $190,000. That's why they PRICE THEM that way. They know that midtown is still a risk.

So now you have all these greedy schmucks buying up townhouses pre-construction, and attempting to sell them for higher prices. And, many of them can't even be sold, but are instead for lease.

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

I'm going to wait it out for about a year. My guess is that the townhouse owners will realize that they can't get what they ask, and prices will fall quickly. Even if interest rates rise, which I'm sure they will, the lower cost mortgage will offset it.

[Trophy Property]

Houston19514, I have no reason to lie. Go around looking at townhouses in Midtown that are for sale. There is a HUGE amount of flipping going on. It's actually creating a townhouse bubble, I think. As I said, there's an oversupply of townhouses already, and once a townhouse reaches a certain price point, most people are going to pass and just buy a single family home in an established neighborhood.

  That's why I think Perry and the other builders do NOT price them higher. They know what the midtown market can bear, and that's townhouses for roughly $150,000 to $190,000. That's why they PRICE THEM that way. They know that midtown is still a risk.

  So now you have all these greedy schmucks buying up townhouses pre-construction, and attempting to sell them for higher prices. And, many of them can't even be sold, but are instead for lease.

  Dumb, dumb, dumb.

  I'm going to wait it out for about a year. My guess is that the townhouse owners will realize that they can't get what they ask, and prices will fall quickly. Even if interest rates rise, which I'm sure they will, the lower cost mortgage will offset it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have not seen a lot of the flipping, but I do not pay much attention. I do check the HAR site about once a week and I see the same product. Many of these listings have been on there for 4-6 months.

[kzseattle]

Houston19514, I have no reason to lie. Go around looking at townhouses in Midtown that are for sale. There is a HUGE amount of flipping going on. It's actually creating a townhouse bubble, I think. As I said, there's an oversupply of townhouses already, and once a townhouse reaches a certain price point, most people are going to pass and just buy a single family home in an established neighborhood.

  That's why I think Perry and the other builders do NOT price them higher. They know what the midtown market can bear, and that's townhouses for roughly $150,000 to $190,000. That's why they PRICE THEM that way. They know that midtown is still a risk.

  So now you have all these greedy schmucks buying up townhouses pre-construction, and attempting to sell them for higher prices. And, many of them can't even be sold, but are instead for lease.

  Dumb, dumb, dumb.

  I'm going to wait it out for about a year. My guess is that the townhouse owners will realize that they can't get what they ask, and prices will fall quickly. Even if interest rates rise, which I'm sure they will, the lower cost mortgage will offset it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think what may be happening is that Perry and other cheaper builders go in risky areas where high-end developers wouldn't venture, and land is still cheap, to build affordable units. As market conditions and demographics of the region improve for higher-end units, private investors move in to flip up some of those units to sell them at higher prices. There is nothing unusual about it since flipping lower end units to squeeze some money out of them is pretty common practice. You can call them greedy. For them, it is just business.

[midtownguy]

Hey KZ, thanks for your input. Your posts are always well-reasoned and thoughtful.

I guess my point is that I have no problem with good, old fashioned capitalism. But 1) I don't think Midtown can sustain the high end prices and oversupply for very long and 2) that pushes out a lot of people out of the market who can afford a $170,000 townhouse (and there is likely to be more of these people than those who can afford a $250,000 townhouse, or at least one in a part of town that is still considered risky).

You really don't see the flipping until you go around and really look. You see it when you go to open houses and look at places, and see "pre-owned" on flyers for a brand spanking new place, and when you want to talk to the people in the Perry office are told instead that "they don't own this place."

[Houston19514]

The question is... why would anyone in their right mind try to flip properties in an over-saturated market?

Midtownguy: Take a chill pill, man. I never suggested you were lying.

If I understand you correctly, you are telling me that people are buying up townhouses from Perry and other builders and immediately putting them back on the market, hoping to make a killing. This in a market generally agreed to be overbuilt, and where the builders' initial prices are fair market prices. I'm sorry, I just cannot make sense of this. The only way flipping works is if you buy for an extraordinarily low price (below-market) or if the market is under-built and prices are sky-rocketing. Cleary, neither is generally the case in Midtown Houston and it's hard to imagine there are many people who ever thought it might be the case.

Might I ask how you can tell a townhouse is being flipped by going around looking at those for sale? Just by finding some "new" Perry townhouses that aren't owned by Perry? Or by seeing a town house for sale that still looks new?

Again, I'm not calling you a liar, but without more evidence than a few new-looking townhouses on the market, I just find it too hard to believe there are enough people in the Houston real estate business, with the necessary money, to make this ignorant of a move. "Gee, I think I'll get rich by buying some new townhouses at market price, and then re-sell them as 'pre-owned' units." That, my friend, is not greed. That is stupidity. (and just to be clear, I'm referring to anyone who would try such a scheme, NOT to you, Midtownguy.)

[midtownguy]

Ha ha! hey Houston, no worries. Didn't mean to jump the gun. I know you weren't calling me a liar. No hard feelings.

Actually, yep, that's exactly what's going on. The townhouse market in Midtown is WAAAAY over built, and some people are trying to flip them. That's why I'm going to wait it out a year to see what happens.

It took me a while for it to register with me. I couldn't understand. I'd see a new townhouse going up, check the prices, and it would be $150,000 or so. A few months later, i'd go back and look at a unit in an open house, and then those units would be $$220,000.

It happened to me at least 7 or 8 times.

So that's how i figured it out: the townhomes were nothing near the advertised price; and yes, they weren't owned by the company that built them.

And yeah, the developers are pricing them at fair market value. It's happening all over midtown.

That's what worries me about midtown (that, and the new suburban walgreens, but that's another story). It's an oversaturated, overpriced market in a neighborhood still considered risky.

I was stunned when I looked at one three-story loft and it had "pre-owned" written on the flyer. (It's those brick lofts that are behind Oakwood apts and are brand new).

[Houston19514]

Well, if I were you, I'd be trying to do some business opposite these supposed townhouse flippers. You should be able to make a killing off of them, cause they aren't too bright.

Now, in the example you just gave... were there not still brand new Perry townhouses either in the same block or just around the corner in the price range of $150,000?

[kzseattle]

The question is... why would anyone in their right mind try to flip properties in an over-saturated market? 

Midtownguy:  Take a chill pill, man.  I never suggested you were lying. 

If I understand you correctly, you are telling me that people are buying up townhouses from Perry and other builders and immediately putting them back on the market, hoping to make a killing.  This in a market generally agreed to be overbuilt, and where the builders' initial prices are fair market prices.  I'm sorry, I just cannot make sense of this.  The only way flipping works is if you buy for an extraordinarily low price (below-market) or if the market is under-built and prices are sky-rocketing. Cleary, neither is generally the case in Midtown Houston and it's hard to imagine there are many people who ever thought it might be the case.

Might I ask how you can tell a townhouse is being flipped by going around looking at those for sale?  Just by finding some "new" Perry townhouses that aren't owned by Perry?  Or by seeing a town house for sale that still looks new? 

Again, I'm not calling you a liar, but without more evidence than a few new-looking townhouses on the market, I just find it too hard to believe there are enough people in the Houston real estate business, with the necessary money, to make this ignorant of a move.    "Gee, I think I'll get rich by buying some new townhouses at market price, and then re-sell them as 'pre-owned' units."    That, my friend, is not greed.  That is stupidity.  (and just to be clear, I'm referring to anyone who would try such a scheme, NOT to you, Midtownguy.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Woah man, you got a bit emotional out there!

Frankly, I do not know or cannot speculate the market conditions for town homes in Midtown area and am therefore not qualified to determine whether or not those investors are making sound business decisions. All I am saying is that flipping is not an unusual practice. Like I said, it is just a business in which one could lose or win. Those investors who are buying those units and flipping them are doing so on the basis of their belief that they would profit from it (or else they are mentally challenged). After all, it is an investment just as in stock market. Now, only time would prove whether their investment is reasonable or not. As is the case with stock market, when the market rises the winners appear visionaries (remember those dot-com heroes?) and when the market drops the losers appear idiots.

One would hope that before making these investments, they did the required market research to back their beliefs. Or else, they are indeed stupid as you say.

[midtownguy]

Well, if I were you, I'd be trying to do some business opposite these supposed Now, in the example you just gave... were there not still brand new Perry townhouses either in the same block or just around the corner in the price range of $150,000?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Houston, lol. You're hilarious. The answer is no. I looked. All around midtown. Most are being bought by investment companies and are being flipped.

A lot of people in Houston don't even know midtown exists. So we're supposed to believe that they're suddenly rushing in to buy around here? Nope. I don't buy it.

They're flipping.

[houston-development]

plus, the flippers are doing 5 year arms and putting between 0% - 5% down; so there is little to no out of pocket cost. they sell it for $10 - $25K over and it's all profit w/ minimal exposure.

which leads me into something else. i guesstimate 90% of the midtown buyers did 5-year arms. when the 5 years are up they have to do one of three things: 1) refi at a higher interest rate, 2) sell, or 3) give property back to bank. the midtown townhomes started to gain steam in 2000 and 2001...

so now, you will have the pre-owns with a cost basis of $175K+ (w/ 0 equity in the house) and brand new product for $200K in an already over-built market... what do you think is gonna happen, hmmm?

[MidtownCoog]

Other than a bunch of WAGs on this message board, I don't see any facts to back up the assumptions.

Go figure.

[Houston19514]

Let me go over this again. There are only three possibilities for making money by flipping... In order for it to work, or even have the chance of working, at least one of these element must be present...

-- the flipper buys a property for a below-market price, such as in a distress sale (someone needing to sell so they can re-locate, a repossessed house, etc.) Midtownguy has assured us that Perry is NOT selling their townhouses for below-market prices.

-- Prices are sky-rocketing (and even that is problematic, because there's no reason to think Perry wouldn't keep it's prices in-line with the sky-rocketing prices)

-- Fraud (the re-sale is done based on a fraudulent appraisal, etc. Somewhat complicated and way beyond the scope of this posting).

Maybe you guys don't really understand what flipping is. Flipping is the re-selling of a property in the VERY short term, usually immediately. There is no time for market appreciation, etc. You keep telling us that people are buying townhouses for fair market value and "flipping" them for a profit. Given that we've established the initial sale is for Fair Market Value, a profitable flipping is well-nigh impossible... the only way for it to happen is to get lucky enough to find a foolish buyer willing to pay above Fair Market Value (and even then you might have to get a fraudulent appraisal).

Now, what you MAY be talking about is simply investors buying townhouses as investments, banking on rising property values in Midtown, leasing them out and hoping to sell them for a profit sometime in the medium-to-long term. I am quite certain that is happening... I've considered doing that myself, because I think Midtown may have a phenomenal future and these should be good investments. But that is NOT flipping.

[Trophy Property]

Let me go over this again.  There are only three possibilities for making money by flipping...  In order for it to work, or even have the chance of working, at least one of these element must be present...

-- the flipper buys a property for a below-market price, such as in a distress sale (someone needing to sell so they can re-locate, a repossessed house, etc.)  Midtownguy has assured us that Perry is NOT selling their townhouses for below-market prices.

-- Prices are sky-rocketing (and even that is problematic, because there's no reason to think Perry wouldn't keep it's prices in-line with the sky-rocketing prices)

-- Fraud  (the re-sale is done based on a fraudulent appraisal, etc.  Somewhat complicated and way beyond the scope of this posting).

Maybe you guys don't really understand what flipping is.  Flipping is the re-selling of a property in the VERY short term, usually immediately.  There is no time for market appreciation, etc.  You keep telling us that people are buying townhouses for fair market value and "flipping" them for a profit.  Given that we've established the initial sale is for Fair Market Value, a profitable flipping is well-nigh impossible... the only way for it to happen is to get lucky enough to find a foolish buyer willing to pay above Fair Market Value (and even then you might have to get a fraudulent appraisal).

Now, what you MAY be talking about is simply investors buying townhouses as investments, banking on rising property values in Midtown, leasing them out and hoping to sell them for a profit sometime in the medium-to-long term.  I am quite certain that is happening... I've considered doing that myself, because I think Midtown may have a phenomenal future and these should be good investments.  But that is NOT flipping.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One more thing to take into account is that even though Perry might be advertising the house in the 150's does not mean it was sold for that price. Any additional extras boost the price well above that. In the burbs this is almost always the case. A house that is from the 220's is really 270 when you landscape, add appliances etc etc. Was this maybe the case in Midtown.

[N Judah]

Here is an interesting article on 'flipping' in Las Vegas.

[kzseattle]

Let me go over this again.  There are only three possibilities for making money by flipping...  In order for it to work, or even have the chance of working, at least one of these element must be present...

-- the flipper buys a property for a below-market price, such as in a distress sale (someone needing to sell so they can re-locate, a repossessed house, etc.)  Midtownguy has assured us that Perry is NOT selling their townhouses for below-market prices.

-- Prices are sky-rocketing (and even that is problematic, because there's no reason to think Perry wouldn't keep it's prices in-line with the sky-rocketing prices)

-- Fraud  (the re-sale is done based on a fraudulent appraisal, etc.  Somewhat complicated and way beyond the scope of this posting).

Maybe you guys don't really understand what flipping is.  Flipping is the re-selling of a property in the VERY short term, usually immediately.  There is no time for market appreciation, etc.  You keep telling us that people are buying townhouses for fair market value and "flipping" them for a profit.  Given that we've established the initial sale is for Fair Market Value, a profitable flipping is well-nigh impossible... the only way for it to happen is to get lucky enough to find a foolish buyer willing to pay above Fair Market Value (and even then you might have to get a fraudulent appraisal).

Now, what you MAY be talking about is simply investors buying townhouses as investments, banking on rising property values in Midtown, leasing them out and hoping to sell them for a profit sometime in the medium-to-long term.  I am quite certain that is happening... I've considered doing that myself, because I think Midtown may have a phenomenal future and these should be good investments.  But that is NOT flipping.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the explanation. I took flipping to mean that the investors upgrade otherwise cheap looking properties to increase profit margin and hope to sell it at a higher profit sometime in the future. The fact that the duration of time they wait before selling the properties determine whether or not we can call it "flipping" is something I didnt know.

[midtownguy]

Ah, so I"ve been using the term "flipping" inappropriately. Thanks for clearing that up.

[SteveTXMD]

Was on the train today from Wheeler to Main St Square and noticed the artists rendition of the proposed Camden development for the Super Block. Looks fantastic (passing by on the train), but, judging from some of the posts here, this rendition has been up there since, what? November of '04? Granted, it's only been five months, but no ground has been broken.

There are so many abandoned and underutilized properties all along Main Street in Midtown, it's sad. But the potential is awesome. If we were 20 years younger ... we might grab some property and open up a cafe/coffeehouse/bookstore. Now, we're looking towards retirement on South Padre...

You know, the 1900 block of Main, Travis, Fannin, Milam, San Jacinto, etc, has got to be cleaned up ... there's got to be a better way ...

[houston-development]

the term flipping has been stretched to mean more than what you are describing, houston. if you were to take the absolute true meaning of it, then you would never even take a penny out of your pocket (other than earnest money).

Maybe you guys don't really understand what flipping is.  Flipping is the re-selling of a property in the VERY short term, usually immediately.

in the "true" meaning, you would put a deal under contract and then assign it at a higher price to another buyer. if you want to stay technical about flipping, the flipper would never close because additional funds would come out of their pocket. even if they closed the deal simultainiously, it wouldn't be flipping per its true meaning

this is obviously not what we are talking about. it now has broader definitions.... it's comparable to seeing 70's constucted apartments that advertise being "luxury" apartments heck, even you stretched the meaning a bit by stating "in the VERY short term". everyone is guilty of stretching terms....

my scenario would include some flipping and very short term investments. they would reserve the unit during pre-sale and then sell after construction is completed (which IS flipping), or consider holding it for less than one year.

don't make assumptions about who knows what; it's almost like you are poking for an argument. isn't there too much hostility in the world already?

[texasboy]

Here is the rendering at the site now. Are you all seriously fighting this project? There are several other projects that are going up in midtown that are not lease, plus I still do not see the big idea of why that is a negative thing. If we keep fighting projects like a bunch of nimbys, these signs will stay on the lots like Ballpark Place in downtown.

If the project is gated like the rest of the CAmden crap, I don't want it built either, because that would not be an urban renewal.

[ssullivan]

If the project is gated like the rest of the CAmden crap, I don't want it built either, because that would not be an urban renewal.

I'm sure it will be like the Post Midtown development, where retail spaces have street access, and residential access is through security gates. Like it or not, this is somewhat of a necessity. But from the renderings I wouldn't expect big fences completely surrounding the complex like you see at the current Camden Midtown complex a few blocks away.

I'm very interested to see how this project turns out, as I am interested in possibly moving there.

[UrbaNerd]

It certainly does not look gated. I can see ground level retail right there. Now shut up,NIMBYs and let them build!

[kjb434]

EXACTLY!!!

Get over the fact that this is rented and let this place be built. This is exactly nore of what midtown needs. Many urban renewal projects like this across the country have rental apartment instead of selling condos.

The rental situation of the residences make it much easier to have ground floor retail. It is a little more complicated to have sold residences with the retail. Rules have to be laid out between the condo association and the retail portions of the development. With the rental setup, the same property management company handle both residences and retail.

[2112]

Funny, I don't hear anyone complaining about the Rice lofts. They are rental units.

Build it.

[N Judah]

That looks really, really nice.

I saw on another thread that blocks in midtown are going for $58 per square foot. Does anyone want to take a guess about how much these units might rent for? (I'm assuming that the higher the cost of purchasing the original land, the more expensive the apartments.)