METRO Next - 2040 Vision

[Houston19514]

3 minutes ago, wilcal said:

 

I don't think it would be anywhere near the majority, but there is a lot of potential commuter traffic from suburbs along 45. I volunteered at IAH for several years, and I would put the number that were flying into IAH for cruises in the several hundred range per weekend. Enough to where IAH built a bus shelter at terminal C to protect them from wind/rain while loading luggage/etc. I would imagine Hobby would have more than that because of how much closer it is. Private shuttle services like Island Breeze have popped up as well. 

 

So passengers would have to take the light rail into the far east end (15ish minutes) then take a 75ish minute train to Galveston. People would probably do that, but would need to be a bit cheaper than the $30-$35/person shuttle cost. 

 

Probably not gonna happen for IAH passengers. BRT to downtown, then get on greenline (possibly via red line?), then get on train. 

 

 

 

Interesting. Where is the Cruise Ship Shuttle shelter at Terminal C?

[cougarpad]

26 minutes ago, wilcal said:

 

I don't think it would be anywhere near the majority, but there is a lot of potential commuter traffic from suburbs along 45. I volunteered at IAH for several years, and I would put the number that were flying into IAH for cruises in the several hundred range per weekend. Enough to where IAH built a bus shelter at terminal C to protect them from wind/rain while loading luggage/etc. I would imagine Hobby would have more than that because of how much closer it is. Private shuttle services like Island Breeze have popped up as well. 

 

So passengers would have to take the light rail into the far east end (15ish minutes) then take a 75ish minute train to Galveston. People would probably do that, but would need to be a bit cheaper than the $30-$35/person shuttle cost. 

 

Probably not gonna happen for IAH passengers. BRT to downtown, then get on greenline (possibly via red line?), then get on the train. 

 

 

The Expansion of the green line is right in the area of a rail corridor that goes towards Galveston. If you put a rail station at a point along that rail corridor, cruise passengers could take the rail to that station from Hobby then commuter rail to Galveston where the commuter rail station could be at the railroad museum across from the cruise terminal.

[cspwal]

Is it the large shelter you can see as you stand at the Metro bus stop, which is just a sign?

[wilcal]

40 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Interesting. Where is the Cruise Ship Shuttle shelter at Terminal C?

 

It's this thing (may have to switch to street view if it doesn't drop you in immediately)

 

Screenshot: 

 

12 minutes ago, cspwal said:

Is it the large shelter you can see as you stand at the Metro bus stop, which is just a sign?

 

People keep running into the existing bus shelter. I believe it's currently back to being a shelter again.

 

I asked them to install a safetly bollard but they said that the "sidewalk" wasn't wide enough. JFC, it's freaking at level. There's no curb and no one is walking down the sidewalk. So dumb. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by wilcal

[samagon]

3 hours ago, wilcal said:

 

I don't think it would be anywhere near the majority, but there is a lot of potential commuter traffic from suburbs along 45.  

 

 

 

I used to reverse commute from downtown to Ellington field. did it for a few years.

 

Gulf fwy was always packed, both in the morning and the afternoon with commuters. There are a lot of people that live in Clear Lake area that commute to downtown.

[wilcal]

57 minutes ago, samagon said:

 

I used to reverse commute from downtown to Ellington field. did it for a few years.

 

Gulf fwy was always packed, both in the morning and the afternoon with commuters. There are a lot of people that live in Clear Lake area that commute to downtown.

 

One of those old Chron articles about the train said that a train from Galveston would have to be split into Galveston to League City and League City to Houston sections anyway. I definitely think it could be successful. 

[Houston19514]

7 hours ago, wilcal said:

 

It's this thing (may have to switch to street view if it doesn't drop you in immediately)

 

Screenshot: 

 

 

 

I thought that was for the United and/or Airport employee shuttle buses.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Houston19514

[wilcal]

3 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

 

I thought that was for the United and/or Airport employee shuttle buses.

 

Could easily be used for both. I received a memo when it opened to direct cruise passengers for pickup there if their cruise company didn't have a rep in the baggage claim area 🤷‍♂️

 

I thought UA shuttle picks up on the west side though? Again, they've changed a lot of that over the last few years. They've done a piss poor job, especially with Uber/Lyft. All of the signage for ride-sharing was labeled "TNC - Transportation Network Companies" No one knows what the hell that means Houston Airport System. 

[102IAHexpress]

Outside of Hobby Airport workers, who would actually use this light rail route? Families? No. Single travelers with large suitcases? No. Business travelers who can expense a taxi? No. 

 

I'm thinking only budget minded travelers who are traveling to downtown. Not a huge a market. 

 

If I was in charge, (which i'm not) and I had to yield to the mob that wants this boondoggle. I would incorporate park and ride stations along the route, with over night parking available (at your own risk). Park for free or just a couple of bucks, take the light rail to the airport. Kind of like the Smith Lands station. Med Center employees park at the station and ride to the Med Center (also inflates the ridership numbers, but that's for another thread). But I'm not in charge, so that means Metro will double down on stupid and think that if they build it, riders will just come. 

[cougarpad]

I worked at Hotels at Hobby and in Galveston and can tell you there are many cruises passengers who fly in and are not driving. So commuter rail that can get people from Hobby to Galveston will get ridership from this. Having one of the light rail expansions having a connection between Hobby and a Commuter rail station in the South East End would help.  Also during Spring and Summer parking in Galveston is hell. I'm sure many Houstonians would prefer an option in getting to Galveston that doesn't require fighting for parking. Having a commuter rail that connects to the Galveston transportation system could be a nice convenience for day trips to Galveston. The commuter rail could end at the old Rail Station in Galveston that is across the street from the main transportation hub that connects to the bus and Trolley system. 

Edited April 4, 2019 by cougarpad

[cspwal]

1 hour ago, 102IAHexpress said:

Outside of Hobby Airport workers, who would actually use this light rail route? Families? No. Single travelers with large suitcases? No. Business travelers who can expense a taxi? No. 

 

I'm thinking only budget minded travelers who are traveling to downtown. Not a huge a market. 

 

If I was in charge, (which i'm not) and I had to yield to the mob that wants this boondoggle. I would incorporate park and ride stations along the route, with over night parking available (at your own risk). Park for free or just a couple of bucks, take the light rail to the airport. Kind of like the Smith Lands station. Med Center employees park at the station and ride to the Med Center (also inflates the ridership numbers, but that's for another thread). But I'm not in charge, so that means Metro will double down on stupid and think that if they build it, riders will just come. 

 

It depends on the travel time.  I've ridden subways and trains in from the airport, with luggage (this last trip a large checked bag, a carry-on, and a backpack).  What decides it for me is always travel time vs cost.  If the train is cheaper, how much slower is it?  Does it drop me off near where I'm going? What time of day will it be?

 

For example, on a recent trip to Vancouver, we were going to a hotel downtown, literally across the street from a subway station.  The ride downtown was half the cost of getting an uber/lyft/whatever and took the same amount of time.

 

On the other hand, on my last trip to DC we decided to take a lyft in because the hotel was .5 mi from the closest metro station, and we were getting in at 10 pm.  The travel time would have been similar though.

 

Bottom line, for me it depends on the size of my travel party, travel time, time of day, and cost.  So is a family going to take a train to hobby to go to Disney world? Probably not.  Is one or two people going on a vacation on a budget going to?  Maybe.  Is a visitor coming in on a budget going to?  Maybe.  It depends on how attractive it is to ride

[cspwal]

For Hobby, the current drive time to 609 Main (a central downtown spot) is 22 minutes.  An uber fare is going to be around $25.  Assuming the light rail averages 15 mph (including stop times), a 6.4 mi extension would add an extra 26 minutes to the 16 minute ride from Central station to Magnolia park, meaning that the trip would take 42 minutes.  Way too long during the day, maybe feasible during rush hour if you're going against traffic.  It also means that any other destination that would require a transfer would tack on another 30 min - an hour.  

 

As a comparison, the orange line to Midway airport in Chicago takes 28 min compared to a 35 min drive

[102IAHexpress]

22 minutes ago, cspwal said:

Bottom line, for me it depends on the size of my travel party, travel time, time of day, and cost.  So is a family going to take a train to hobby to go to Disney world? Probably not.  Is one or two people going on a vacation on a budget going to?  Maybe.  Is a visitor coming in on a budget going to?  Maybe.  It depends on how attractive it is to ride

 

I agree. But we don't need to speculate too much. We have data already. Public transportation exists and is in use to/from Hobby. All of the types of travelers you mention in your post have already rejected public transportation at the airport. The real question is, how will light rail (at a significant higher cost) be more attractive than the current bus service? 

[cspwal]

The public transportation option at Hobby is a joke right now.  It's over an hour to downtown, includes a transfer at Magnolia park, over half that time is spent on a local bus, which are much more cramped than a light rail train.  You can pretty easily bring luggage onto a light rail train unless it's packed; bringing luggage onto a local metro bus sucks.  How many more riders would there be if the bus to the airport took 35 minutes?

[102IAHexpress]

Not sure I would call it a joke. It's public transportation. What are you expecting? It's a bus. A pretty reliable one that I've taken many times to Hobby. Usually takes me less than an hour or about an hour. But I hear you. Buses "suck" and trains don't "suck." But in my opinion, building  light rail at a cost of almost a billion dollars to shave 20 minutes off the bus time (if we're lucky), is not a good use of taxpayer money. 

[cspwal]

One of the casualties of the new bus network was the old 88 bus, which had limited stops between downtown and Hobby.  35 minutes at rush hour, and I took it multiple times.  It was cut because of low ridership.  But that's beside the point.

 

The light rail extension needs to be able to get local riders - people who don't want to go to downtown or the airport, but from home to the grocery store

[august948]

9 hours ago, cspwal said:

The public transportation option at Hobby is a joke right now.  It's over an hour to downtown, includes a transfer at Magnolia park, over half that time is spent on a local bus, which are much more cramped than a light rail train.  You can pretty easily bring luggage onto a light rail train unless it's packed; bringing luggage onto a local metro bus sucks.  How many more riders would there be if the bus to the airport took 35 minutes?

 

If I need to go to Hobby, this is what I use...

 

https://www.supershuttle.com

 

It's about $40 from round trip from westchase and they come right to your door and load up your luggage for you.  I typed in a downtown address and it comes up as $22 so inside the loop it's probably a pretty good deal.  Maybe the right solution isn't always public transport.

[BeerNut]

I used to use Super Shuttle but Lyft/Uber have replaced them.  This is the criteria I usually use depending on length of trip.  

 

Hobby

1-5 days take car and use shuttle parking

5+ days Uber/Lyft pick based on credits and discounts

 

Bush

1-9 days take car and use shuttle parking

9+ days Uber/Lyft choose based on credits and current discounts

[j_cuevas713]

On 4/4/2019 at 2:17 PM, 102IAHexpress said:

Not sure I would call it a joke. It's public transportation. What are you expecting? It's a bus. A pretty reliable one that I've taken many times to Hobby. Usually takes me less than an hour or about an hour. But I hear you. Buses "suck" and trains don't "suck." But in my opinion, building  light rail at a cost of almost a billion dollars to shave 20 minutes off the bus time (if we're lucky), is not a good use of taxpayer money. 

But your sample size is too small which is why it seems like a waste. Multiply that 20 mins for every additional trip the train is able to take within those 20 mins and the additional revenue from riders and it all compounds on itself saving hours upon hours of travel time for riders, not just 20 mins total. 

[102IAHexpress]

 

On 4/19/2019 at 3:44 PM, j_cuevas713 said:

But your sample size is too small which is why it seems like a waste. Multiply that 20 mins for every additional trip the train is able to take within those 20 mins and the additional revenue from riders and it all compounds on itself saving hours upon hours of travel time for riders, not just 20 mins total. 

 

Your sample size is too big which is why it seems like a great investment. Objectively, the additional train trips that the purple and green lines take now compared to the buses they replaced has -not- yielded compounded results in ridership/revenue. Why should an extension to Hobby be any different, this time, to every inaccurate Metro projection from the past? 

 

If your projections are correct why not just start off with a rapid bus line extension? If the numbers hold up, expand to light rail.

[j_cuevas713]

3 hours ago, 102IAHexpress said:

 

 

Your sample size is too big which is why it seems like a great investment. Objectively, the additional train trips that the purple and green lines take now compared to the buses they replaced has -not- yielded compounded results in ridership/revenue. Why should an extension to Hobby be any different, this time, to every inaccurate Metro projection from the past? 

 

If your projections are correct why not just start off with a rapid bus line extension? If the numbers hold up, expand to light rail.

Because it’s an airport and the Red Line is proof Houstonians will use it to get to popular destinations whether for work or play. Ridership predictions for the Green and Purple were based on minorities that already heavily used public transit in neighborhoods like 3rd Ward and East End. Plus the overall potential and growth in those neighborhoods hasn’t even come close to hitting a ceiling in terms of development. For example, once East River builds out you can expect ridership to increase. 

Edited April 21, 2019 by j_cuevas713

[102IAHexpress]

On 4/20/2019 at 11:42 PM, j_cuevas713 said:

 the Red Line is proof Houstonians will use it to get to popular destinations whether for work or play. 

 

The red line is proof that if high ridership bus routes between the med center and downtown are converted to a light rail line, it will remain high ridership route, but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

The green and purple lines are proof that if existing low ridership bus routes are converted to light rail, they will remain low ridership light rail routes but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. 

[wilcal]

On 4/20/2019 at 8:05 PM, 102IAHexpress said:

 

 

Your sample size is too big which is why it seems like a great investment. Objectively, the additional train trips that the purple and green lines take now compared to the buses they replaced has -not- yielded compounded results in ridership/revenue. Why should an extension to Hobby be any different, this time, to every inaccurate Metro projection from the past? 

 

If your projections are correct why not just start off with a rapid bus line extension? If the numbers hold up, expand to light rail.

 

Connections suck and people don't like them. Going BRT to a train is not ideal. 

[cspwal]

Well implemented BRT is a low capacity version of light rail, but the differences to change it over are substantial - you would have to rip up the entire busway and start over with rails.  It's better to do it right the first time

[Luminare]

12 minutes ago, cspwal said:

Well implemented BRT is a low capacity version of light rail, but the differences to change it over are substantial - you would have to rip up the entire busway and start over with rails.  It's better to do it right the first time

 

Agreed. However at this point any pragmatic solution is optimal. We also know that substantial costs for rail come from the fact that the entire roadway gets ripped up and replaced. If we switch a BRT to LRT at some point then only the median area will have to be serviced. Less time will have to dedicated to design the entire ROW. I think we can both agree that all of these things will have to be taken on a case by case basis. There is no one-size fit all solution by any stretch of the imagination.

[samagon]

 

11 hours ago, 102IAHexpress said:

 

The red line is proof that if high ridership bus routes between the med center and downtown are converted to a light rail line, it will remain high ridership route, but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

The green and purple lines are proof that if existing low ridership bus routes are converted to light rail, they will remain low ridership light rail routes but at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. 

 

so you're saying that the density that has built up within a few blocks of the red line over the 15 years (and continues to build) since the red line was built is not at all related to the convenience of light rail?

 

the red line extension, and green/purple lines have been in service for 3 years? 

 

and anyway, while it's not huge immediate weekday ridership numbers

Jan 2016

green      2633

purple     3697

Jan 2017

green      3274

purple     4256

Jan 2018

green     4032

purple    5033

Jan 2019

green     4372

purple    5567

 

percentage wise, ridership has increased substantially on those routes, and there's no reason it won't continue to rise as density increases around these lines. 

[Luminare]

1 hour ago, samagon said:

 

 

so you're saying that the density that has built up within a few blocks of the red line over the 15 years (and continues to build) since the red line was built is not at all related to the convenience of light rail?

 

the red line extension, and green/purple lines have been in service for 3 years? 

 

and anyway, while it's not huge immediate weekday ridership numbers

Jan 2016

green      2633

purple     3697

Jan 2017

green      3274

purple     4256

Jan 2018

green     4032

purple    5033

Jan 2019

green     4372

purple    5567

 

percentage wise, ridership has increased substantially on those routes, and there's no reason it won't continue to rise as density increases around these lines. 

 

Density is only part of the problem, but another issue is that we just don't have a network that is robust enough that beckons people to use it as an alternative. Right now we only have 3 lines. only one actually takes people to a few destinations that one would like to visit or work at. The network has to reach a critical moment where I can look at a metro map full of various lines and say...oh hey I don't need to take my car because I can take these various lines to get to my general location and then walk 5 mins to where I want to go. So its not just the density of where people live or work, but the density of the network itself and its ability to take people from one area to another where they need/want to go. I recently visited Germany again for a week and there are plenty of areas that have connections to rail (either city rail or regional rail) that are very suburban and not packed like the city. At the end of the day the network will gain riders when people are confident that the network will take them to wherever they want to go. Not just from Downtown to Reliant Stadium after they had to travel all the way downtown via car.

 

EDIT: Our network will have to be very dense because of how many different density mass areas we have and how spread out they are.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Luminare

[samagon]

this is indeed part of it, and why the loss of the university line has really dealt a huge blow to the overall success of the system.

 

everyone says "See, these two added lines have really low ridership!" well, you removed a component of those lines, people being able to travel from east of 59 to job opportunities in the galleria area, and all points in between without a car would have been huge. the system of added lines was designed as a set to be successful, and when you take a piece out of that set, it's like taking a wheel off of a car and complaining because it doesn't move very well.

[Luminare]

1 minute ago, samagon said:

this is indeed part of it, and why the loss of the university line has really dealt a huge blow to the overall success of the system.

 

everyone says "See, these two added lines have really low ridership!" well, you removed a component of those lines, people being able to travel from east of 59 to job opportunities in the galleria area, and all points in between without a car would have been huge. the system of added lines was designed as a set to be successful, and when you take a piece out of that set, it's like taking a wheel off of a car and complaining because it doesn't move very well.

 

Exactly. In a way thats essentially how a transportation system should be pitch, but it so often isn't, and that its like a car....a really super big car. You can't just put some wheels on axles and say that the job is done. There is a lot more that goes into a car. A transportation network isn't just one line, but a system much like a car isn't just one machine, but many machines. Again though that isn't the argument that many make, but its probably the argument that will make sense to the most people sense...well... most people drive cars. The analogy would be perfect.

[cspwal]

Another analogy is if you built the Katy freeway like it is now, but then it ended in a stop sign (warning - cross traffic does not stop!) 2 miles before 610