kdog08 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 At the risk of sounding dumb, the oil will still be shipped in overseas, the Panama Canal is still getting expanded, and the predicted boom in freight (and trains) will still happen, right?The oil companies know the worst-case scenarios, the economy will still keep going (barring some other nationwide/worldwide catastrophe), some projects get cancelled, and the world keeps turning. Again, who agrees/disagrees with my "not doom" prediction (edited for some more info)? And to add, our oil and ant gas aren't going anywhere, the world will boom again, and we will drill it again. It is OPEC and the Saudis who find themselves in a worse long term position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
august948 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 In other news, assuming my theory has any merit... http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/business/russia-ruble-interest-rates.html?referrer&_r=1 Basically, Russian economy is in collapse, so if this was the goal of Saudi Arabia, it appears they're succeeding thoroughly. Of course the downside to economic chaos in a major power like Russia is that Putin may try to wag the dog by stepping up aggression against the Ukraine and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arche_757 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Of course the downside to economic chaos in a major power like Russia is that Putin may try to wag the dog by stepping up aggression against the Ukraine and others. Global uncertainty because a major power starts rattling sabers would cause the price of Oil to jump north. All the Russians would need to do is sink a tanker or attack a refining operation in the Middle East to really cause some panic. And they could do so without formally doing so as "Russia" they've got proxy organizations I'm sure they support and could even play up to an ISIS or Al Qaeda to cause some additional turmoil. Now, I don't believe the Russian's would resort to something like that - but who knows what they'll do if the Ruble falls too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 The party may be continuing. Houston added 16,000 jobs in November and 125,000 since November of last year. Of course all numbers are subject to revision in March of next year, but so far it's been a good year in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The party may be continuing. Houston added 16,000 jobs in November and 125,000 since November of last year. Of course all numbers are subject to revision in March of next year, but so far it's been a good year in 2014.Yes, it has been a good year. Fortunately, oils only started its fall in the last few months.It's too early for the slide to really impact jobs. It could take a year or more before that happens. If oil falls further and stays there for a protracted time, that is when there will be big problems locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lockmat Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Really good 15 min video from a Midway rep on the status of the economy. WARNING: includes realistic statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montrose1100 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Pretty on par with what a lot of people are saying. Not shocking to see that Office will probably slow down significantly with long term low oil. Residential still has some catching up to do. I know I'm a little optimistic but he did mention groundbreaking on Green Street Hotel, and a couple project announcements in the next few months (one guess would be a recent purchase on Washington Avenue).And he's absolutely correct if we don't figure out transportation we will be in trouble. I'm not saying let us start laying down rail or widening/double decking freeways but we need to catch this important part of the city up while we have a breather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Barton Smith, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Houston and a longtime observer of the local economy, said oil prices would have to remain low for about six months before the energy industry takes a hit. He said it would be even longer before sectors such as construction, which is still trying to catch up with the surge in Houston's population, feel the pinch.http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/economy/article/Houston-job-growth-is-strong-now-but-slowdown-5968461.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 The lag implies that the drop in real estate activity will be delayed 6-12 months, and when it happens, the next uptick will be delayed by 6-12 months. A possible cushion is Houston's buoyant housing market, which has fewer "underwater" mortgages than all but San Francisco and San Jose (and we have the merit that our football team may yet make the playoffs). http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2014/12/19/fewer-homes-underwater-but-foreclosures-rising-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 Fitch worries, but cites factors that are 1) not unique to Houston, and 2) more likely to have prevented a bubble from forming. http://swamplot.com/tanking-oil-prices-place-houston-second-on-fitchs-overvalued-housing-market-list/2014-12-23/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 SAUDI OIL MINISTER: I Don't Care If Prices Crash To $20 — We're Not Budginghttp://www.businessinsider.com/r-sau...s-mees-2014-12Monday's edition of the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper quoted the kingdom's oil minister Naimi as saying Saudi Arabia is prepared to increase output and gain market share by meeting the demands of any new customers."Given the lead time in permit approval and rig construction ahead of oil production, a sizeable negative U.S. supply response given the price drop is unlikely to take place until late 2015, which places further downward pressure on oil prices in the first six months of next year," National Australia Bank said in a note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Baker Hughes and Halliburton planning layoffs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mollusk Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Layoffs occur in most mergers, regardless of the external economic conditions. Many of the non revenue functions don't require the full staff that both of the merging entities would otherwise bring with them because a lot of that work gets consolidated. Regardless, a boom by definition can't last forever. Absent some tectonic change (i.e., the steel mills leaving for overseas), neither do the busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTiger Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I would say that mergers tend to happen in relatively good economic times, and because the company is still extant and stronger than ever, laid off employees get severance benefits. Meanwhile, mergers may keep some divisions afloat too--we know for instance Randalls has gotten a stay of execution due to the merger, and all those jobs associated have been saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston? Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I'll be so glad when oil prices increase! I'll be even happier when Houston diversifies a lot more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'll be so glad when oil prices increase! I'll be even happier when Houston diversifies a lot more!US crude Now in the $40sOther supplies in the very low $50sThere is going to be a bumpy mess if prices stay here or go lower over the next 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrLan34 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Predictions are all over the place but here is another one to add to the mix: https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/economy/four-2015-predictions-41676 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 don't listen to landlords, developers and the like... their jobs depend on optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston? Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 don't listen to landlords, developers and the like... their jobs depend on optimism.TBH, we can say the same thing about the pessimists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arche_757 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yes, but developers - such as the ones interviewed - won't go belly up in a year. They also (I would think) would be the first to draw back amid any fear of regional recession talk? They have the money to wait it out, but wouldn't be preaching optimism (or at least not preaching pessimism) if they really had a need to worry. We won't know the full scale and depth of the current "crisis" until its over and we can study it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 TBH, we can say the same thing about the pessimists. we prefer the term "realist" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Another very good article in the WSJ today. The U.S. oil patch is starting to hurt. The larger companies (Exxon and Chevron as I recall ) were called out as "less impacted" (my words) due to their upstream and downstream integration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston? Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 we prefer the term "realist" I agree, but no one has been a "realist." Either one has been ALL optimistic or ALL pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Pessimists aren't realists. They are hapless, hopeless losers that actual realists or intelligent people never take very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMF Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Pessimists aren't realists. They are hapless, hopeless losers that actual realists never take anymore seriously than an adolescent throwing another in a long line of endless, repetitive, predictable hissy fits. Pessimists seldom bring anything of value to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arche_757 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Pessimists aren't realists. They are hapless, hopeless losers that actual realists never take anymore seriously than an adolescent throwing another in a long line of endless, repetitive, predictable hissy fits. Pessimists seldom bring anything of value to anyone. Said the anonymous person on an internet forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arche_757 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'll add - I'm always amazed at how angry we get sometimes at each other on here! Never ceases to amaze me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samagon Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'll add - I'm always amazed at how angry we get sometimes at each other on here! Never ceases to amaze me. This post made me very angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Pessimists aren't realists. They are hapless, hopeless losers that actual realists never take anymore seriously than an adolescent throwing another in a long line of endless, repetitive, predictable hissy fits. Pessimists seldom bring anything of value to anyone. was that directed at me? i hope so! and to think i was very recently called "the most optismitic poster on Matt Bullard of HAIF" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtterlyUrban Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Rather than name call each other, let's try this......A game:Here are the scenarios:1) "Oil prices stay at or below $52 per barrel for all of 2015 and do not recover to $65 per barrel until the fall of 2016". 2) "oil prices have already bottomed out and will recover to $70 per barrel by the end of 2015 and $95 per barrel by the end of 2016" Now the game...... You just assume that either of these are true to play ...... Predictions:Scenario 1: My prediction: 100,000 or more job loses in Houston, resi real estate prices fall by 20% (more in outlying communities, new resi construction slows to a trickle, many notable commercial projects cancel construction Scenario 2:My prediction: minimal job loses, resi prices essentially flat, new resi construction impacted.... Maybe 50% fewer starts, and only a few notable projects get terminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.