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How big will it get?

Marcus Allen

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livincinco

livincinco

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All of this sounds pretty much right to me.  The urban area doesn't have to expand that much to get us from 6m to 10m.  But what about southeast/Clear Lake?  NASA has been a declining force, but waterfront is waterfront...

 

I was kind of assuming that the urban area extended all the way to Galveston already so that there wasn't going to be any land growth in area.  In terms of population growth/development, I guess my question with the waterfront is how much the hurricane fears prevent ongoing development.  It seemed like Galveston and that general area was poised for a growth boom until Ike hit and it just seems to be recovering now. 

 

It's an interesting area.

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ToryGattis

ToryGattis

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I was kind of assuming that the urban area extended all the way to Galveston already so that there wasn't going to be any land growth in area.  In terms of population growth/development, I guess my question with the waterfront is how much the hurricane fears prevent ongoing development.  It seemed like Galveston and that general area was poised for a growth boom until Ike hit and it just seems to be recovering now. 

 

It's an interesting area.

 

Good point.  I did just read a Chronicle article about rapidly rising flood insurance rates because the Feds are revamping the program (needs to happen - taxpayers have been subsidizing flood insurance for too long).  Combined with new, more accurate flood maps, and people are getting a financial whack all along the coast.  It will probably reduce home values.  And certainly be a disincentive to new construction.

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livincinco

livincinco

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Good point.  I did just read a Chronicle article about rapidly rising flood insurance rates because the Feds are revamping the program (needs to happen - taxpayers have been subsidizing flood insurance for too long).  Combined with new, more accurate flood maps, and people are getting a financial whack all along the coast.  It will probably reduce home values.  And certainly be a disincentive to new construction.

 

Agreed.  I do think that concerns related to climate change are going to impact that area as well.  (and yes, I'm very concerned that mentioning those words risks taking this thread on a 200 post tangent.)   What I mean is that I think that there are a high number of people that have a significant enough concerns about the impact of climate change that it may cause them to shy away from investing in that area.

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Subdude

Subdude

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I'm assuming that you're talking about the growth of the Houston metro area, not necessarily the city limits.  Looking 25 years out, I'd guess at the following assuming that there's no major economic changes.   This assumes the Houston population gets to the much discussed 10 million number in that timeframe.

 

West - the Energy Corridor , Memorial City, and Westchase continue to develop into a major urban center of the city, similar to the way that Anaheim has developed in Los Angeles.  Increased density all the way out to Grand Parkway with suburban development continuing out to Sealy which is basically the edge of a commute zone to the energy corridor.

 

Northwest - Office park, light industrial development along the Grand Parkway with a high probability of a major Generation Park like development along either the 249 or 290 corridor around the Grand Parkway.  Suburban development out to about Hempstead. 

 

North - The Woodlands area continues to develop into a major urban center and the distinction between Conroe and The Woodlands continues to disappear.  Suburban growth continues out past Conroe, but Huntsville is still outside of the Houston Metro.

 

Northeast - development in New Caney and the growth of the Generation Park area drives suburban development out to Cleveland.  Lots of talk about growth on the 105 corridor between Conroe and Cleveland.

 

East - some modest development, but no major growth outside of current areas as the majority of the development occurs to the West. 

 

South - lots of infill, but no major changes to the boundaries of the urban area.

 

Southwest - Sugarland continues to develop into an urban area, but does not develop into a major job center and does not drive suburban development beyond the general Rosenberg area.

 

Center - population inside the loop doubles with the expected increases in density and gentrification.  Areas with urban density continue to develop out toward the beltway as low - mid range families are increasingly driven outside the loop.  SW Houston continues to be the densest area in the city with a high number of mid-rise low income apartment developments.

 

 

Discuss

 

Agree for the most part, except that I think that very little will happen in the Northeast sector but that there will be a huge amount of growth in the Northwest as the "Grand Parkway" is built out.

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livincinco

livincinco

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Agree for the most part, except that I think that very little will happen in the Northeast sector but that there will be a huge amount of growth in the Northwest as the "Grand Parkway" is built out.

 

I think that you're right for the shorter term and I think that growth in the Northeast is probably further in that timeline, maybe 10-15 years from now.  It's obviously a guess and I'm assuming that Generation Park develops as expected and becomes a major employment center.  Also, assuming that Grand Parkway gets extended through to 59 and that there's growth in traffic between that area and growth that's occurring in The Woodlands/Conroe area.  It's also assuming that the I-69 project continues and that it becomes a freight corridor that supports distribution and light industrial growth.

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Trae

Trae

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I was kind of assuming that the urban area extended all the way to Galveston already so that there wasn't going to be any land growth in area. In terms of population growth/development, I guess my question with the waterfront is how much the hurricane fears prevent ongoing development. It seemed like Galveston and that general area was poised for a growth boom until Ike hit and it just seems to be recovering now.

It's an interesting area.

Texas City-Galveston is actually its own urban area, so not yet. Conroe-The Woodlands is too.

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livincinco

livincinco

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Texas City-Galveston is actually its own urban area, so not yet. Conroe-The Woodlands is too.

Not sure what you mean by urban area, but both Galveston and The Woodlands are considered as part of the Houston MSA and I referred to the metro area in my post.

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Trae

Trae

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Not sure what you mean by urban area, but both Galveston and The Woodlands are considered as part of the Houston MSA and I referred to the metro area in my post.

Urban areas are different from MSAs. The Houston MSA gets broken down to the Houston urban area, Conroe-The Woodlands, Texas City-Galveston, and the Lake Jackson-Freeport area. There are still large enough gaps between all these places, but I think by the next census, Conroe/tw and Texas city will be included in the houston urban area.

I pretty much agree with your list from earlier, but I think the NE side will grow faster than expected since it is a little closer in than other growing areas, and has potentially two theme parks, generation park, the airport, and the GP could fuel the growth there. Plus the freeway is already wide. The gaps will really fill in between sugar land and the league city area.

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livincinco

livincinco

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Urban areas are different from MSAs. The Houston MSA gets broken down to the Houston urban area, Conroe-The Woodlands, Texas City-Galveston, and the Lake Jackson-Freeport area. There are still large enough gaps between all these places, but I think by the next census, Conroe/tw and Texas city will be included in the houston urban area.

I pretty much agree with your list from earlier, but I think the NE side will grow faster than expected since it is a little closer in than other growing areas, and has potentially two theme parks, generation park, the airport, and the GP could fuel the growth there. Plus the freeway is already wide. The gaps will really fill in between sugar land and the league city area.

 

Gotcha.  Yes, I think that you're right about the gaps being filled in those areas.  The Conroe-Woodlands gap is pretty much gone already.

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Subdude

Subdude

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Construction jobs boom in Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston

Three Texas metro areas — Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston — rank among the top 10 nationally for construction job growth in the last year.

The Houston area was No. 1, adding 13,000 jobs, the trade group said. The Fort Worth area was 10th, with 5,300 new construction jobs.

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/headlines/20130823-construction-jobs-boom-in-dallas-fort-worth-and-houston.ece

 

 

 

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august948

august948

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Much of the growth on the west side of town seems to be Oil & Gas.  Just saw another article in the Chron today about a campus being built west of Eldridge on Memorial.  http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/09/04/skanska-reveals-plans-for-new-energy-corridor-development/

 

For those O&G experts out there, to what extent is this boom being fueled by fracking and what do you think the timeline might be for it to play out?

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Montrose1100

Montrose1100

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Much of the growth on the west side of town seems to be Oil & Gas. Just saw another article in the Chron today about a campus being built west of Eldridge on Memorial. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/09/04/skanska-reveals-plans-for-new-energy-corridor-development/

For those O&G experts out there, to what extent is this boom being fueled by fracking and what do you think the timeline might be for it to play out?

As long as there is turmoil in a majority of the Middle East, oil prices will remain high. It's amazing how many jobs this industry truly supports. We export a lot of chemicals but its all based on the petroleum industry. Sure the percentage of jobs have shifted but oil is the foundation for a bigger majority than we would like to pretend.

The fracking has helped tremendously, it has enabled the companies to squeeze out as much resources as they can. Shale oils, oil sands, squeezing every last drop they can.

Apart from that, if they ever let companies drill offshore and deep sea with limitless bounds we would see a boom not only in this City, but this whole country.

That's all I got.

Edit: that last bit could potentially destroy the Gulf of Mexico if not done properly.

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Marcus Allen

Marcus Allen

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Ok, so I will take whatever you all dish my way. But as we ALL look at developments across the globe, why is it that Houston, although exciting in it's production, is lacking in it's form? What I mean is that, yes, we are bustling, and I applaud that, but the high rises are a bit redundant and boring. Why? Slopes? Angles? Cylinders? Multiple towers connected by some sort of futuristic looking tubes. Ok, so now I am being silly, but really, come on, why not more variety? I had to move back from LA...sigh, BORING, architecturally, now I am back to my roots, and dammit, where is the WOW in Houston Architecture like back in the day? Ok. You're thoughts?

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