Average Three-Hour Commute Coming to Houston

[sheeats]

The Greater Houston Partnership's Transit Planning Committee conducted a survey that basically stated we'd be facing an average three-hour commute within the next 26 years due to unmitigated growth in and around "rural" areas, especially the Grand Parkway corridor.

http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/20...ng_crossley.php

Great.

Then again, I guess that's the tradeoff for wanting a cheaply-constructed home in an area with marginally good schools.

[foxmulder]

The Greater Houston Partnership's Transit Planning Committee conducted a survey that basically stated we'd be facing an average three-hour commute within the next 26 years due to unmitigated growth in and around "rural" areas, especially the Grand Parkway corridor.

http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/20...ng_crossley.php

Great.

Then again, I guess that's the tradeoff for wanting a cheaply-constructed home in an area with marginally good schools.

If metro doesn't get there butt in gear...I'm in maryland and am amazed by the "Marc Train and Acela Express" everywhere...

[TheNiche]

This article was basically an op-ed by David Crossley. It didn't say almost anything about the study, its assumptions, or its methodology. Only that the average Houstonian will face a three-hour commute 26 years from now...and they didn't even specify whether that was one-way or round-trip.

I want to see this study.

[Houston19514]

This article was basically an op-ed by David Crossley. It didn't say almost anything about the study, its assumptions, or its methodology. Only that the average Houstonian will face a three-hour commute 26 years from now...and they didn't even specify whether that was one-way or round-trip.

I want to see this study.

Ditto (and without even seeing it, I'm prepared to call BS on it. AN AVERAGE three hour commute? A lot of people in this town currently and will continue to have very short commutes, such as myself - 10 minutes - For every ten minute commuter you'll need a person with a 5 hour and 50 minute commute to average to 3 hours. Even if they are talking round trip, it takes a 5 hour and 40 minute commuter to balance every 10 minute commuter.

Assuming it's round-trip numbers, for every 1/2 hour commuter (and there are LOT of those in Houston) it will take a 4 hour commuter to offset.

Even a lowly one-hour commuter would require 2-hour commuter to average out to three hours.

This strikes me as completely absurd.

[RedScare]

I plan to be retired by then anyway.

Almost by its very title, the study can be dismissed, or at least Crossley's interpretation of it. No American city currently has a 3 hour commute, and Houston is not projected to grow any larger than any of the top 3 currently, so one must use flawed assumptions to get there. One must also ignore the makeup of the US economy, and assume that suddenly in 26 years everyone will work for a big business with a centrally located office. The fact is that hundreds of thousands of Houstonians will work at the malls, shopping centers, gas stations, hotels, doctor's offices, schools, restaurants and other assorted businesses located in and among the many far=flung neighborhoods along the Parkway. Crossley also ignores the fact that CEOs faced with daunting commutes for themselves or their employees will simply move their offices when the commute becomes unbearable.

If Houston and Harris County want to keep the inner core vibrant an viable, they will work to improve transit to the inner core. If they don't, private business will do what they need to do. There will be no 3 hour average commute. Period.

[jb4647]

That's the beauty of living inside the loop like I do in West U. No matter where I work, I go against the flow of traffic. It's a beautiful thing

Of course I still watch Jennifer Reyna's traffic report on KPRC everyday but not for the traffic

I feel for you people when I hear on the radio "50 mins from Barker Cyrprus into the Loop....." on the radio. I really feel for ya!

[Montrose1100]

For a 3 hour commute I could work in Temple, Dallas, Oberlin (or Lake Arthur), LA, or Castroville. I guess it would be nice to have all that "me time".

[totheskies]

I think a "three hr. commute" is hogwash, BUT the 290 corridor is not too far away from this. How many days out of the year does it take over 60 minutes to get from 1960 to I-610 (and vice versa)?? Just by watching the weekday traffic reports, I know it's at least 20 times per year. So the "avg commute" in Houston may never be 3hrs. round trip, but Cypress is getting hella close to it.

And yet, we have all this talk about expanding the Grand Parkway, and US 290 is about to FALL APART

[20thStDad]

Anyone find details on the study? Did they mean 3 hours TOTAL per day? That's still a lot, but there are a lot of people doing that right now. But for an average...I think not. People are smarter than that.

[TheNiche]

So the "avg commute" in Houston may never be 3hrs. round trip, but Cypress is getting hella close to it.

Not everyone that lives in Cypress works inside the loop. Even for Cypress, an average three-hour commute is pretty ridiculous.

[VicMan]

Not everyone that lives in Cypress works inside the loop. Even for Cypress, an average three-hour commute is pretty ridiculous.

Yes, as the HP corridor probably employs a lot of Klein ISD and Cypress-Fairbanks ISD residents. Also the part of 290 inside the Beltway has the headquarters for Luby's.

[TheNiche]

Yes, as the HP corridor probably employs a lot of Klein ISD and Cypress-Fairbanks ISD residents. Also the part of 290 inside the Beltway has the headquarters for Luby's.

There are actually quite a few large engineering firms off of 290. And there are plenty of office buildings, shopping centers, industrial facilities, and schools not only in the Cypress area but accessible to them via the north and west sections of Beltway 8.

[jerrios]

I plan to be retired by then anyway.

Almost by its very title, the study can be dismissed, or at least Crossley's interpretation of it. No American city currently has a 3 hour commute, and Houston is not projected to grow any larger than any of the top 3 currently, so one must use flawed assumptions to get there. One must also ignore the makeup of the US economy, and assume that suddenly in 26 years everyone will work for a big business with a centrally located office. The fact is that hundreds of thousands of Houstonians will work at the malls, shopping centers, gas stations, hotels, doctor's offices, schools, restaurants and other assorted businesses located in and among the many far=flung neighborhoods along the Parkway. Crossley also ignores the fact that CEOs faced with daunting commutes for themselves or their employees will simply move their offices when the commute becomes unbearable.

If Houston and Harris County want to keep the inner core vibrant an viable, they will work to improve transit to the inner core. If they don't, private business will do what they need to do. There will be no 3 hour average commute. Period.

Though I definitely do not agree with the whole 3 hour commute, but for you to say "CEOs faced with daunting commutes for themselves or their employees will simply move their offices when the commute becomes unbearable." That statement is more ridiculously than anything that is stated in the article. I know people who live in Pearland, Katy, Woodlands, League City and younger generations working now who either live in midtown or in around the heights area all of whom work for the same company. I don't believe any CEO is willing to move a Downtown/Greenway/Galleria office to satisfly one set of employees who happen to live in one geographic area.

In order to continue to keep the inner core vibrant is to continue to develop the inner core to where people would like relocate to the inner core to avoid the "3 hour commute" (long commute). If there is improved transit but what is available out in people's suburbs are the same options available in the city, people will still not make the commute inwards.

[TheNiche]

Though I definitely do not agree with the whole 3 hour commute, but for you to say "CEOs faced with daunting commutes for themselves or their employees will simply move their offices when the commute becomes unbearable." That statement is more ridiculously than anything that is stated in the article. I know people who live in Pearland, Katy, Woodlands, League City and younger generations working now who either live in midtown or in around the heights area all of whom work for the same company. I don't believe any CEO is willing to move a Downtown/Greenway/Galleria office to satisfly one set of employees who happen to live in one geographic area.

In order to continue to keep the inner core vibrant is to continue to develop the inner core to where people would like relocate to the inner core to avoid the "3 hour commute" (long commute). If there is improved transit but what is available out in people's suburbs are the same options available in the city, people will still not make the commute inwards.

Red's comment is not ridiculous at all. There's plenty of precedent for moving offices from urban areas to suburban areas when the commute into central Houston gets to be unbearable. Small and medium-sized businesses, in particular, are apt to move out of central Houston when the commute is bad and the price of real estate (including employee parking) is high; they don't need to tap the whole metropolitan area to satisfy their labor requirements, and suburban office space is inexpensive and comes with free parking.

The biggest corporations are typically the least flexible in terms of where they can locate since they have enormous labor needs, however even then, we've witnessed many cases in recent memory where an engineering-heavy oil and gas firm will locate in the Energy Corridor because that's 1) where all of its competitors for that kind of specialty labor are and 2) the specialty labor is increasingly tending to live within a commuter-friendly distance of that concentration of companies instead of being randomly located throughout the metro area.

As a case in point that illustrates how congestion by itself plays a role in the location of offices, until the West Loop was improved, traffic was so bad in the Galleria area that even though Houston was doing pretty well in terms of office occupancy and absorption, the Galleria area was stagnant. And once congestion was mitigated, office leasing improved.

And if there's a single factor that should be especially compelling, it is that the CEO and other key decision makers very often don't live in central Houston, and if they can get away with it, they'll tend to prefer officing close to home.

[VicMan]

And if there's a single factor that should be especially compelling, it is that the CEO and other key decision makers very often don't live in central Houston, and if they can get away with it, they'll tend to prefer officing close to home.

Sometimes the actual headquarters are located away from the company's major "employment center." United Airlines used to be headquartered in suburban Elk Grove Township, IL. But around 2006 the company's top executives moved to the Chicago Loop (their Downtown). United still has many of its employees in Elk Grove Township. It's just that the top executives aren't there anymore.

[TheNiche]

Sometimes the actual headquarters are located away from the company's major "employment center." United Airlines used to be headquartered in suburban Elk Grove Township, IL. But around 2006 the company's top executives moved to the Chicago Loop (their Downtown). United still has many of its employees in Elk Grove Township. It's just that the top executives aren't there anymore.

Yep, the world's largest corporation is located in Irving, TX. And the second largest is in Bentonville, AR. Go figure.

[Original Timmy Chan's]

I actually believe Crossley's numbers are correct.

I don't have all the details, but if we assume that a significant number of commuters use METRO, then the average 3-hour commute sounds conservative, if anything!

I think I could turn my 15-minute drive to work into a 3-hour (or longer) commute if I took the bus!

[totheskies]

Not everyone that lives in Cypress works inside the loop. Even for Cypress, an average three-hour commute is pretty ridiculous.

Yeah, but that's 6, 1/2, a dozen or the other. So of course there are the lucky folks that work at the Cypress medical center, the big outlet complex up there, or Luby's corporate off of 290. But most people are in fact heading to the Galleria, downtown, the medical center or the industrial sector (pasadena, east Houston, etc.). If that weren't the case, then 290 wouldn't be clogged on a daily basis. I'd love to take a poll of Cypress neighborhoods to confirm or deny assumption, but I don't think one exists. If it does, please direct me to it.

Everyone that I know that lives in the Cypress area works in either downtown, east houston or the Galleria.

BTW having driven around a couple of areas, it's pretty easy to tell what area of town people work in. Have you ever commuted using I-10 east?? The vast majority of people commuting on that freeway do NOT work in downtown... you can tell by how the flow of traffic loosens up as soon as you pass 610. Then you only hit more traffic as you approach the 59/10 interchange. On 290 however, it's virtually stop-and-go between 1960 and the 610 interchange. This means most people are headed to I-10, 610 or another area to the south and east of the interchange.

Edited April 12, 2009 by totheskies

[TheNiche]

Yeah, but that's 6, 1/2, a dozen or the other. So of course there are the lucky folks that work at the Cypress medical center, the big outlet complex up there, or Luby's corporate off of 290. But most people are in fact heading to the Galleria, downtown, the medical center or the industrial sector (pasadena, east Houston, etc.). If that weren't the case, then 290 wouldn't be clogged on a daily basis. I'd love to take a poll of Cypress neighborhoods to confirm or deny assumption, but I don't think one exists. If it does, please direct me to it.

Everyone that I know that lives in the Cypress area works in either downtown, east houston or the Galleria.

BTW having driven around a couple of areas, it's pretty easy to tell what area of town people work in. Have you ever commuted using I-10 east?? The vast majority of people commuting on that freeway do NOT work in downtown... you can tell by how the flow of traffic loosens up as soon as you pass 610. Then you only hit more traffic as you approach the 59/10 interchange. On 290 however, it's virtually stop-and-go between 1960 and the 610 interchange. This means most people are headed to I-10, 610 or another area to the south and east of the interchange.

290's congestion has a lot more to do with the systematic design of the freeways and major thoroughfares serving northwest Harris County than with commuting patterns. The layout of the spoke freeways is awkward, to say the least, and even their configuration from ramp to ramp is not ideal.

For commuting pattern data, Google the Census Bureau's LEHC program. After a little bit of playing with it, you can tell me precisely what percentage of Cypress residents (however you define Cypress) commute beyond northwest Harris County.

[houstonmacbro]

The Greater Houston Partnership's Transit Planning Committee conducted a survey that basically stated we'd be facing an average three-hour commute within the next 26 years due to unmitigated growth in and around "rural" areas, especially the Grand Parkway corridor. http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/20...ng_crossley.php Great. Then again, I guess that's the tradeoff for wanting a cheaply-constructed home in an area with marginally good schools.

I believe their 26 year plan is off by a decade. If growth keeps occuring at this pace and no rapid rails or bus servies running to where people go, then it is going to happen sooner.

[TheNiche]

I believe their 26 year plan is off by a decade. If growth keeps occuring at this pace and no rapid rails or bus servies running to where people go, then it is going to happen sooner.

This isn't a plan, the three-hour estimate was not itself stated clearly, and the methodology of the forecast is completely unknown.

[Houston19514]

I believe their 26 year plan is off by a decade. If growth keeps occuring at this pace and no rapid rails or bus servies running to where people go, then it is going to happen sooner.

Nonsense. There will be no 3-hour commute AVERAGE in 10 years, 20 years, 26 years, or 50 years. For the reasons clearly explained by several posters above.

[editor]

No American city currently has a 3 hour commute

Perhaps no American city has an AVERAGE 3 hour commute. But there are tens of thousands.. perhaps hundreds of thousands.. of people who commute more than three hours into New York City each day. My parents both did it for years. And now people commute into New York from even farther. NJ Transit is working on commuter rail from northeastern Pennsylvania all the way into Grand Central Station (or at least it was a couple of years ago, don't know the current status).

I guess what I'm saying is that no one can predict what Houston will look like 26 years from now in 2035. Just like the people who lived back in 1983 probably couldn't imagine that a 20-lane Katy freeway could possibly be congested.

With any luck, there will be some radical social or technological change and much of this commuting will no longer be necessary. Maybe the "telecommuting revolution" that was supposed to come in the 1990's will arrive in the 2020's. Who knows.

[crunchtastic]

With any luck, there will be some radical social or technological change and much of this commuting will no longer be necessary.

Hopefully. I'm still waiting for my jetpack.

At the very least, gasoline engine vehicles should be obsolete.

[Fringe]

I'm holding out for one of those Star Trek transporters.

Beam me up!

Edited April 15, 2009 by LunaticFringe

[JLWM8609]

With any luck, there will be some radical social or technological change and much of this commuting will no longer be necessary. Maybe the "telecommuting revolution" that was supposed to come in the 1990's will arrive in the 2020's. Who knows.

Or maybe they'll just invent the 30 lane wide freeway with 12 lane wide feeder roads (6 per side).

[RedScare]

Perhaps no American city has an AVERAGE 3 hour commute. But there are tens of thousands.. perhaps hundreds of thousands.. of people who commute more than three hours into New York City each day. My parents both did it for years. And now people commute into New York from even farther. NJ Transit is working on commuter rail from northeastern Pennsylvania all the way into Grand Central Station (or at least it was a couple of years ago, don't know the current status).

I guess what I'm saying is that no one can predict what Houston will look like 26 years from now in 2035. Just like the people who lived back in 1983 probably couldn't imagine that a 20-lane Katy freeway could possibly be congested.

With any luck, there will be some radical social or technological change and much of this commuting will no longer be necessary. Maybe the "telecommuting revolution" that was supposed to come in the 1990's will arrive in the 2020's. Who knows.

Actually, having been here in 1983, and looking around at what was happenning then, it was more predictable then than now. Houston was trying desparately to catch up to the flood of newcomers. Our highway infrastructure was way underbuilt. My commute from Kukendahl to downtown (23 miles) was 1 hour 20 minutes. I have not seen numbers like those since, even on 290. Additionally, consider the population growth. In 1980, Houston's metro population was 2.75 million. Today, it is estimated to be 5.75 million, a 109% increase. While projected populations are guessing games, most project Houston's metro population to be in the neighborhood of 9 million by 2035, a 56% increase, and numerically equal to the population increase of the last 26 years. And, transportation planning is much more diverse. In 1983, METRO was only 4 years old, rail referendums were getting voted down, HOV lanes were in their infancy, and commuter rail was something only New York and Chicago did. Now, we are looking at highways, toll roads, commuter and light rail, we have Park&Rides to every area of the county, and nothing is off limits. Given these numbers, it is reasonable to assume that the metro area will at least reasonably accomodate the increased population without more than tripling average commute times.

[houstonmacbro]

I'm holding out for one of those Star Trek transporters.

Beam me up!

I mean really! What happened to telecommuting. The technology has finally materialized for at least much of the work that is done in offices, could be done at home or work centers closer to home.

[houstonmacbro]

Or maybe they'll just invent the 30 lane wide freeway with 12 lane wide feeder roads (6 per side).

The marvels of modern engineering.

[Geoff8201]

I always wondered, why not stack freeways? When space to build out runs dry, build up!

Imagine 290 being a double decked freeway, with the upper freeway being for longer, further commutes (such as 1960 to 8 to 610) and the lower freeway being for shorter trips (basically like it is now). The expense would be greater, but it would work.

Hopefully one day all you'll have to do is get in your vehicle, punch in your destination and the car takes you. With a computer controlled navigation system that allow all the cars to "talk" to each other therefore providing a high speed transit, 100% efficiency, with better route planning and no human error. Could be reality some day. Would be nice.