NThomas Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Well there goes their target customer base, but i agree, as it is the only way to keep Victory Park from dying.....Unfortunately, Hillwood brought a knife to the gun range when they set out on their ambitious plan for Victory Park. Like former GE CEO Jack Welch said, "change before you have to." That quote is very, very appropriate when talking about the target demographic for VP. Their original market wasn't/isn't there & IMO, won't be for decades to come. Besides multiple poor urban planning mistakes, a weak economy, and few residents within and bordering the development, Victory Park can rise from it's ashes if it can adapt to the market and focus on it's biggest asset, the American Airlines Arena and its patrons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Unfortunately, Hillwood brought a knife to the gun range when they set out on their ambitious plan for Victory Park. Like former GE CEO Jack Welch said, "change before you have to." That quote is very, very appropriate when talking about the target demographic for VP. Their original market wasn't/isn't there & IMO, won't be for decades to come. Besides multiple poor urban planning mistakes, a weak economy, and few residents within and bordering the development, Victory Park can rise from it's ashes if it can adapt to the market and focus on it's biggest asset, the American Airlines Arena and its patrons.I think you're jumping the gun a little on advising them to downgrade their target. If they hold out with the same strategy, then they can get going again as soon as there is economic recovery. I can't imagine that it would take decades. If they switch to a less exclusive tenant base, they poison the well; they'll never achieve gross potential rents of the sort they had pro formed again.What they actually do is dependent upon the extent to which Hillwood has become financially distressed. If they're hurting for cash then they'll probably have no choice but to change their strategy. If they can hold out for a few years, however, they're better off enduring high levels of vacancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 They couldn't make it during the most obscene easy money period in US history. If they couldn't fill those condos and stores when the rich and upper middle class could borrow with impunity, it is not likely that they will suddenly fill it up in the much tighter credit days ahead. Frankly, Hillwood vastly overestimated the number of wealthy people, and more importantly, the number who would move to this condo complex. They're pretty much done. BTW, Hillwood no longer even owns the development. They had to sell to a German firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 They couldn't make it during the most obscene easy money period in US history. If they couldn't fill those condos and stores when the rich and upper middle class could borrow with impunity, it is not likely that they will suddenly fill it up in the much tighter credit days ahead. Frankly, Hillwood vastly overestimated the number of wealthy people, and more importantly, the number who would move to this condo complex. They're pretty much done.Well, yeah, the condo craze was pretty stupid to begin with.As for the stores, they should still be cautious about poisoning the well. Nothing of that magnitude comes together overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Well, yeah, the condo craze was pretty stupid to begin with.As for the stores, they should still be cautious about poisoning the well. Nothing of that magnitude comes together overnight.I am with RedScare and NThomas. I don't think there is any future in uber-high-end retail in that Victory Park. There are not and never will be enough uber-high-end residents in the development, and why would shoppers who don't live there want to bypass the Galleria, Northpark, Highland Park Village, etc to shop in a not-particularly-convenient development that has all the charm and ambience of a suburban office park, especially one, which, at certain times will be briefly swarming with hockey fans. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 There are not and never will be enough uber-high-end residents in the development, and why would shoppers who don't live there want to bypass the Galleria, Northpark, Highland Park Village, etc to shop in a not-particularly-convenient development that has all the charm and ambience of a suburban office park, especially one, which, at certain times will be briefly swarming with hockey fans. ;-)Maybe not in the Victory Park development, but the Uptown/Turtle Creek area has witnessed and is still witnessing tremendous population growth. There are thousands of new uber-high-end apartment units that will be completed over the next couple of years, helping to draw the concentration of uber wealth southward.To the extent that the selection of tenants needs to be broader, we probably need to be citing potential tenants analogous to those in places in Houston such as the River Oaks Shopping Center, Highland Village, or Rice Village. But NThomas' suggestions included Burger King and Dunkin Donuts...and that's poisoning the well.As for hockey fans...it has been shown time and time again that the effect of stadia on economic development is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Maybe not in the Victory Park development, but the Uptown/Turtle Creek area has witnessed and is still witnessing tremendous population growth. There are thousands of new uber-high-end apartment units that will be completed over the next couple of years, helping to draw the concentration of uber wealth southward.To the extent that the selection of tenants needs to be broader, we probably need to be citing potential tenants analogous to those in places in Houston such as the River Oaks Shopping Center, Highland Village, or Rice Village. But NThomas' suggestions included Burger King and Dunkin Donuts...and that's poisoning the well.As for hockey fans...it has been shown time and time again that the effect of stadia on economic development is negligible.You are either wildly inflating the number of apartments under construction or wildly deflating the term "uber-wealthy". There are not thousands of apartments that will be completed in the Uptown/Turtle Creek area of uber-wealth level even approaching what it takes to live in the W, or the income levels that would support the level of retail they were putting in V-Park. But even if that were true, it is not particularly convenient for 90% of them to get to Victory Park. Once they are in their car, why would they not just go to HPV or Northpark for a MUCH better shopping experience? Personally, I don't see much future for retail in V-Park at any level, whether its River Oaks Shopping Center-style or whatever. It's stark, baren, inconvenient to get to, and inconvenient once you are there.As for hockey fans, I agree on the overall economic effect of stadia, but you totally missed the point. I referenced hockey fans as just one of the groups of people who will occasionally be milling about/passing through V-Park on their way to AAC. Not necessarily the type of crowd the uber-wealthy want to be passing through on their way to their favorite uber-expensive boutiques. (Nothing against hockey fans, the same goes for NBA fans, rock concert-goers... just about any event at the AAC.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 You are either wildly inflating the number of apartments under construction or wildly deflating the term "uber-wealthy". There are not thousands of apartments that will be completed in the Uptown/Turtle Creek area of uber-wealth level even approaching what it takes to live in the W, or the income levels that would support the level of retail they were putting in V-Park. But even if that were true, it is not particularly convenient for 90% of them to get to Victory Park. Once they are in their car, why would they not just go to HPV or Northpark for a MUCH better shopping experience? Personally, I don't see much future for retail in V-Park at any level, whether its River Oaks Shopping Center-style or whatever. It's stark, baren, inconvenient to get to, and inconvenient once you are there.As for hockey fans, I agree on the overall economic effect of stadia, but you totally missed the point. I referenced hockey fans as just one of the groups of people who will occasionally be milling about/passing through V-Park on their way to AAC. Not necessarily the type of crowd the uber-wealthy want to be passing through on their way to their favorite uber-expensive boutiques. (Nothing against hockey fans, the same goes for NBA fans, rock concert-goers... just about any event at the AAC.)If the sort of folks that could afford to live at the W hotel are typical of what you define as uber-wealthy, and you're defining Northpark or HPV as catering exclusively to the uber-wealthy, then the existence of such retail at Northpark probably isn't justified. There just aren't that many such people...anywhere. We probably both need to work on better defining the demographics being catered to, but I'm convinced that tenants like Burger King will not be the saving grace of Victory Park.As for your comment about AAC, I did not miss your point. My response is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 If the sort of folks that could afford to live at the W hotel are typical of what you define as uber-wealthy, and you're defining Northpark or HPV as catering exclusively to the uber-wealthy, then the existence of such retail at Northpark probably isn't justified. There just aren't that many such people...anywhere. We probably both need to work on better defining the demographics being catered to, but I'm convinced that tenants like Burger King will not be the saving grace of Victory Park.As for your comment about AAC, I did not miss your point. My response is the same.I never defined Northpark or HPV as catering to the uber-wealthy, now did I? Nor did I even imply it. But they have the stores that do cater to the uber-wealthy, and they have a larger concentration of them than VP ever proposed or imagined having. Plus they are more convenient to most of Dallas' uber-wealthy people, plus they offer FAR more pleasant environs.As for AAC: I see now, you just wanted to post a completely off-topic non-responsive comment as your "response". Okay, whatever. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NThomas Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 I think you're jumping the gun a little on advising them to downgrade their target......If they switch to a less exclusive tenant base, they poison the well; they'll never achieve gross potential rents of the sort they had pro formed again......If they can hold out for a few years, however, they're better off enduring high levels of vacancy.Hillwood HAS been holding off for the past couple year. Remember Two Victory Park, 2500 Houston St, Victory Tower (Mandarin Oriental), The condo site north of the namesake park? All of these buildings should have been finished today if Hillwood stuck to their most recent plan. Dallas, is overbuilt on "luxury units" (apartment or condo) because... We're not seeing over 50% occupency months, sometimes, in the case of Cirque, years. If Hillwood wanted to really create the "Rodeo Drive" of Dallas, they would have built somewhere that didn't require them to house the city's arena too. The driving force behind over 90% of VP's market today is middle class males 25-40. There that's it. If VP was bringing in the soccer moms from Highland Village and Lakewood, we wouldn't see the boutiques closing left and right only to replaced with a "Pizza joint" or Hard Rock Cafe. Look what's right across the street, a Hooters and Dick's Last Resort, places that aren't $20 a head for dinner and every game/event night, those two and the only mid-scale restaurant in the VP border, Chili's, are packed while places like Victory Tavern and Craft are the last resort for AAC patrons....BTW, Hillwood no longer even owns the development. They had to sell to a German firm.Fortunately, the German investors agreed to take the property as compensation and are now the controlling owners. Hillwood is still the property manager and minor investor so if things continue on their present course, the Germans will wise up and hire a new property management group.I am with RedScare and NThomas. I don't think there is any future in uber-high-end retail in that Victory Park. There are not and never will be enough uber-high-end residents in the development, and why would shoppers who don't live there want to bypass the Galleria, Northpark, Highland Park Village, etc to shop in a not-particularly-convenient development that has all the charm and ambience of a suburban office park, especially one, which, at certain times will be briefly swarming with hockey fans. ;-)Unless Hillwood can fill up VP with their original estimates with 4,000 residents at build out, I find it hard to belive that those 4,000 would spend more then the 22,000 per game/event. Hillwood needs to focus on attracting the people that do come to VP, not who they want to see walking Houston and Victory Ave. With the a fore mentioned retail meccas that are diversified with their tenants, ranging from high end furniture stores to food courts with yes, Burger King.Maybe not in the Victory Park development, but the Uptown/Turtle Creek area has witnessed and is still witnessing tremendous population growth. There are thousands of new uber-high-end apartment units that will be completed over the next couple of years, helping to draw the concentration of uber wealth southward.There were only 1,500 units built in the last decade south of the Katy Trail in DT, Uptown, and Victory Park, those that are scheduled to be completed will break around 1,500 units in Turtle Creek and Oak Lawn. Those that were already there will continue where they've been going, NorthPark, Galleria, Highland Park Village, etc. If Hillwood really wanted to go after high end tenants they would have not only built for retailers new to Dallas but poached others from the previously mentioned stores. Barney's New York? That would have been a great retailer for VP's uber-high-end clientele. Hillwood had plunty of time to court Barney's but NorthPark got them instead and that speaks volumes more then I could write about where the high-end money is going to be spent in Dallas.To the extent that the selection of tenants needs to be broader, we probably need to be citing potential tenants analogous to those in places in Houston such as the River Oaks Shopping Center, Highland Village, or Rice Village. But NThomas' suggestions included Burger King and Dunkin Donuts...and that's poisoning the well.As for hockey fans...it has been shown time and time again that the effect of stadia on economic development is negligible.Not every person living/visting VP can afford a $20+ per person meal especially the 22k that go to the AAC nearly 280 days a years. That should have been Hillwood's demographic. Hillwood started down the wrong path when they tried to create a neighborhood with an arena, instead, Hillwood should have built a neighborhood around an arena, their greatest asset. If the German investors got a group of franchise entrepreneurs tomorrow to build a "food court" with QSRs, local establishments' 2nd locations, etc. the City of Dallas would see a lot more of AAC's demographic spending money in Victory Park, in Dallas, instead of the burbs or worse, cooking at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 As for AAC: I see now, you just wanted to post a completely off-topic non-responsive comment as your "response". Okay, whatever. ;-)No sooner than you said that than NThomas started making a case for a re-tenanting of Victory Park to accommodate the stadium crowd...apparently having not read the post you just criticized for being off-topic.I'll reply further tomorrow. It's late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 No sooner than you said that than NThomas started making a case for a re-tenanting of Victory Park to accommodate the stadium crowd...apparently having not read the post you just criticized for being off-topic.I'll reply further tomorrow. It's late.Oh, perhaps I misunderstood. I gave you the benefit of the doubt by presuming you were speaking of global economic effects of arena/stadium projects, in which case you would be correct that the effects are negligible, but off-topic.Now, it seems you are saying something quite different, to-wit: that they have negligible effect on the development in their immediate neighborhood. I'm not buying that theory without some supporting evidence. (FWIW, even with this version of your theory, your response rather missed my point; that uber-high-end shoppers would not necessarily choose to be sharing the sidewalks with swarms of hockey/basketball/rock concert attendees.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NThomas Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 No sooner than you said that than NThomas started making a case for a re-tenanting of Victory Park to accommodate the stadium crowd...apparently having not read the post you just criticized for being off-topic.I'll reply further tomorrow. It's late.I'm not talking about re-tenanting, I'm talking about filling the empty space left by retailers not attuned to their market. You wouldn't have to "kick-out" any of the existing tenets, they're already leaving or having their rent subsidized 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxDave Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 One thing that stands out to me is the apparent flaw in the belief: "If you build an exclusive high-end retail concept, they will come"It didn't work for Victory Park and didn't work for the Shops at Willow Bend in Plano. I imagine there are other similar examples.It seems that respected, successful high-end retail centers need to evolve based on preferences of nearby high-end shoppers. They cannot just appear out of nowhere.Does anyone have any similar or contrary examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Urbannizer Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Cancelled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChannelTwoNews Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.bizjourna...ctory-park.html KDC announced Thursday it will develop a 400,000-square-foot, Class A office tower at Victory Park in Uptown Dallas. The 23-story building includes 15-plus floors of office space above an eight-story parking structure. It is the first venture for KDC and Orlando, Fla.-based Estein & Associates USA Ltd., through its affiliates. A Dallas Morning News article further states that... ...The office building would be just across the street from where developer Mill Creek Residential Trust has contracted with Estein to buy a vacant block adjacent to DART’s Victory light-rail station. The Dallas-based apartment developer plans to construct a five-story rental building on the property, which is between Victory Avenue and Stemmons Freeway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfwcre8tive Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Here are some ideas by the new owners to correct the mistakes present in Victory Park http://uptown.bubblelife.com/v/355992/5TO5J/Exclusive_Developers_ready_to_give_Dallas_Victory_Park_project_a_reboot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brijonmang Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 http://www.bizjourna...ctory-park.html A Dallas Morning News article further states that... Wow that is almost an exact replica of the 10 Waterway building set to go up in the Woodlands. Edited to attach photo: Lockmat originally posted this in the 10 Waterway thread. http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/haif/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=3375 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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