Hurricane Gustav

[musicman]

Ray Naggin' has already taken precautionary measures - he has moved all school busses to the Astrodome.

looks like the gates are closed.

Astrodome not open for evacuees if Gustav hits New Orleans

11:55 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Courtney Zubowski / 11 News

HOUSTON

[westguy]

I guess it's Dallas's turn.

[Dub]

looks like the gates are closed.

Astrodome not open for evacuees if Gustav hits New Orleans

11:55 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Courtney Zubowski / 11 News

HOUSTON

[houstonmacbro]

The speculation has already started:

Gustav is projected to hit the Gulf Coast at the end of Labor Day weekend, and it could be a Category 3 storm by then. Forecasters caution it's difficult to predict the storm's path this early.

With the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina looming, cities along the Gulf Coast are not taking the threat of Gustav lightly.

Posted from Chron at 12p.

[BryanS]

I guess it's Dallas's turn.

No.... It's Louisiana's turn.

This time, the State of Texas and the State of Louisiana have a plan. If Gustav decides to hit the Big Easy, evacuees will head to northern Louisiana. Emmett said this has been the plan for the past couple of years.

Makes sense to me. Head north.

[houstonmacbro]

Makes sense to me. Head north.

When has common sense ever really factored into elected officials' decisions.

[plumber2]

Well, don't you know most Houstonians tried to take all the family cars with them instead of sharing just one?

I also don't remember them changing to contraflow until really late in the game, so the backup could be caused by a lot of vehicles in need of gas.

Yes sir Westguy, I took every car I owned out of here. My wife had my mom and a car full of clothes, my daughter had the pets in her car, my son had all the food and bedding in his vehicle and I had my wife's business computers, a portable generator and a box of "atomic fire balls" on the front seat with me. (4 drivers=4 cars as I saw it)

When you're looking around a wondering what in hell to take with you, and the news boys are repeating Cat 5 over and over again, you just grab what you can and go.

Oh, BTW I did leave one car behind (a '91 Buick).

And if all of you Houstonians (not specifically you westguy) would just stay put until we Galveston County folks get out of your way, I promise we'll be polite to you the next time you're down here for Madis Gras or the Lone Star Rally. We might even look the other way when y'all pee on our sidewalks.

[houstonmacbro]

Yes sir Westguy, I took every car I owned out of here. My wife had my mom and a car full of clothes, my daughter had the pets in her car, my son had all the food and bedding in his vehicle and I had my wife's business computers, a portable generator and a box of "atomic fire balls" on the front seat with me. (4 drivers=4 cars as I saw it)

When you're looking around a wondering what in hell to take with you, and the news boys are repeating Cat 5 over and over again, you just grab what you can and go.

Oh, BTW I did leave one car behind (a '91 Buick).

And if all of you Houstonians (not specifically you westguy) would just stay put until we Galveston County folks get out of your way, I promise we'll be polite to you the next time you're down here for Madis Gras or the Lone Star Rally. We might even look the other way when y'all pee on our sidewalks.

If you lived in north Houston/Spring would you evacuate if it were a Cat 2-3? I think I would stick it out for a Cat 1, but not sure about a 2-3.

My neighborhood doesn't flood, but I certainly don't want to be here when the storm surge hits.

[sevfiv]

Folks like plumber2 and other more southern residents should definitely have priority on heading out - I live pretty close to downtown, and I wouldn't dream of helping to clog outbound movement of those in more danger.

North Houston - goes without saying.

[Chamo]

If you lived in north Houston/Spring would you evacuate if it were a Cat 2-3? I think I would stick it out for a Cat 1, but not sure about a 2-3.

My neighborhood doesn't flood, but I certainly don't want to be here when the storm surge hits.

I'm in Pearland Zip code 77584. I would only think about evacuating with a Cat 5 coming straight this way.

Don't see North Houston/Spring as an evacuation zone as you can see in this EVACUATION ZONES MAP

Yellow - Get out for a Cat 1

Green - Get out for a Cat 3

Orange - Get out for a Cat 4

[20thStDad]

The beltway is pretty much north of all evacuation zones. Inner loopers and those further north will be fine.

I can't see evacuating from Spring with a cat 2 or 3.

[feufoma]

I guess it's Dallas's turn.

Don't hold your breath! Dallasites will be too busy shopping and eating at trendy restaurants on their AMEX accounts.

[houstonmacbro]

The beltway is pretty much north of all evacuation zones. Inner loopers and those further north will be fine.

I can't see evacuating from Spring with a cat 2 or 3.

I am more afraid of wind than rain. Not sure why.

[RedScare]

If you lived in north Houston/Spring would you evacuate if it were a Cat 2-3? I think I would stick it out for a Cat 1, but not sure about a 2-3.

My neighborhood doesn't flood, but I certainly don't want to be here when the storm surge hits.

I am more afraid of wind than rain. Not sure why.

I want to see the storm surge that hits 60 miles inland. Even the record breaking Katrina surges only went in 3 miles or so. As for wind, a Cat 3 storm would likely produce winds in Spring that barely reached hurrican strength, if that. There may be occasional gusts, but the land between the coast and your house knocks down a lot of the hurricane's strength. Additionally, if your home was built to City of Houston codes in the last several years, it is rated to withstand 115 mph. It would take a Cat 4 or Cat 5 at landfall to produce winds that high in Spring. Cat 5 storms are notoriously unstable and quickly deteriorate.

Your biggest danger would be blown out windows. If you are concerned enough to evacuate, invest in some 5/8 inch plywood and cover the windows, and stay home with a bottle of rum. Naturally, I recommend Captain Morgan, though any of the Caribbean rums are hurricane rated.

[houstonmacbro]

Thanks. Trust me, I doubt seriously I am going anywhere. I am too lazy to evacuate.

[RedScare]

Thanks. Trust me, I doubt seriously I am going anywhere. I am too lazy to evacuate.

Where you are located, your laziness will likely be rewarded.

Looks like it will be Saturday before we have an idea whether Texas takes a hit.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The track forecast for Gustav

The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs continue to show a significant shift westward in Gustav's track, thanks to the southwestward motion and center re-formation of the storm this morning. Gustav may now pass through the narrow Yucatan Channel, and not be significantly weakened by Cuba.

By Saturday, a trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. should weaken the ridge, and allow Gustav to turn north near the tip of western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of the trough. This trough may not be strong enough to pull Gustav to a landfall in the central Gulf Coast. Instead, a blocking ridge of high pressure may build in over the southern U.S. by Monday, forcing Gustav to move slowly westward towards Texas. This continues to be the solution of the 12Z run of the GFS model, but it is now the only model predicting this. The best guess now is that the ridge will slow Gustav down, but allow it to make landfall Tuesday. The GFS is the only model calling for a Texas landfall; the other main models (UKMET, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF) all foresee a landfall between Alabama and western Louisiana.

[houstonmacbro]

Where you are located, your laziness will likely be rewarded.

North Houston (I45@1960)

[westguy]

And if all of you Houstonians (not specifically you westguy) would just stay put until we Galveston County folks get out of your way, I promise we'll be polite to you the next time you're down here for Madis Gras or the Lone Star Rally. We might even look the other way when y'all pee on our sidewalks.

I stayed home during Rita.

[20thStDad]

I stayed home during Andrew, it was awesome. No school, got the frisbee out in the street and set records for distance. Got out the skim board and hit the water in the streets, good times. Except for the neighborhoods where tornados hit, that is not cool.

I hate traffic too much to evacuate. It's hard enough on my sanity to drive to work, no way I attempt to go where everyone else is going.

[RedScare]

Pointing at us again.

[Highway6]

Nagin is evacuating if NO is in the cone at 60 hrs out. But, its going to barely be past Cuba at 60 hours out, so it almost seems like a guarantee NO will be evacuating.

Yah.. so 4 day vacation to NO is canceled as of now. Not for fear of the storm that wont get there till Tues, but who wants to be wrapped up in an almost inevitable mandatory evacuation there...

[aggie92]

Here is a study done after Rita that showed the estimated wind velocities in East Texas. I think that some of the people in Jasper and surrounding area that would challenge the earlier post that there is a lot of land to slow down the hurricane. Yes, it is not 115 mph, but it can still do a lot of damage.

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/r...405_1000CDT.pdf

[crunchtastic]

The eastern TX and western LA corridor is very prone to wind damage because of all the pine trees. You do not want to hunker down for 80 mile an hour winds surrounded by pines.

In Rita, my aunt in Orange evacuated to go to my cousins in Jasper, only to watch the town get ripped to shreds by flying pine trees. OK, I exaggerate a little, but it was bad.

[Pumapayam]

I think wez safe this time man.

[Trae]

Oh snap!

I say it doesn't hit us though. If it does, we get the weak side (like Rita).

[westguy]

I think wez safe this time man.

I don't know, but the local media is so much quieter than they were with Rita.

[Jax]

I love the Weather Underground, best site for weather forecasts in general. The computer models keep coming closer and closer to us each time they are updated. This will be an interesting one to watch.

[RedScare]

Here is a study done after Rita that showed the estimated wind velocities in East Texas. I think that some of the people in Jasper and surrounding area that would challenge the earlier post that there is a lot of land to slow down the hurricane. Yes, it is not 115 mph, but it can still do a lot of damage.

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/r...405_1000CDT.pdf

Could you point out the portion of that report that contradicts my statement? You acknowledge that 115 mph winds did not extend inland, just as I said. Additionally, only 2 counties sustained more than 9% severe damage, both coastal counties. Neither the National Hurricane Service, who put out the chart that I refer to, nor myself ever suggested that there is no damage inland from hurricanes. Indeed, a good thunderstorm can cause significant damage. But, winds drop fairly rapidly once a storm moves ashore, as your report clearly states.

[memebag]

The eastern TX and western LA corridor is very prone to wind damage because of all the pine trees. You do not want to hunker down for 80 mile an hour winds surrounded by pines.

In Rita, my aunt in Orange evacuated to go to my cousins in Jasper, only to watch the town get ripped to shreds by flying pine trees. OK, I exaggerate a little, but it was bad.

My mom did the same thing. I'd never heard Woodville mentioned on Houston news until the day after Rita when they said that's where it was dumping its "fury". That's where my Mom evacuated to, in a little house surrounded by pine trees. They fell on the roof, they fell on the roads, they knocked out the power lines. I stayed home and went swimming.

[westguy]

Is it bad to hope it moves away, since the most likely target is east of NO where Katrina hit? NOAA's biggie models are pointing east now, but that could easily change. OTOH, hurricanes do seem to hit to the right of the center line, which is what Edouard and Rita both did.