RedScare Posted August 29, 2008 Author Share Posted August 29, 2008 NHC gives greater weight to the HWRF and GFDL models. The one that basically strikes the LA coast and heads back down is a bit disconcerting.I've heard a couple of meteorologists now that suggested that even if Gustav hits La., it will then slide westward along the coast toward Texas. They also are saying it will slow to almost zero, meaning wherever landfall is could get pummelled by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 29, 2008 Share Posted August 29, 2008 Should we have a separate thread for Hanna? Some computer models have her touching the Caribbean and coming back up and others have her headed through the FL Straits and making landfall in the area where Gustav hits. It's going to be a rough week on the coast. Evil hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 29, 2008 Share Posted August 29, 2008 I think this is the one. Obviously Hanna is over the keys/SW FL. Gus hit SW LA about three days ago. On the right side are two more tropical systems. I think they should reverse their colour scheme because the Gulf should look like a bloodbath at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bayou City Posted August 29, 2008 Share Posted August 29, 2008 Latest data as of 2 pm shows that two different computer models predict a hit on the Houston metro area. For some reason they are evacuating people from the Louisiana coast already though, but I guess they're really nervous after Katrina Should'nt we be worried now??? Because 3 of the cpu models have it hitting Texas 2 has it hitting LA and 1 (the purple one) has it suddenly turning to the west and then Tim Heller (meteorologist on ch.13) was talking about the computer the latest computer models moving westard .I think Louisiana is overreacting because of katrina.The storm has been slowing down and another HAIF member posted that if it slows down its a bad thing for us.We should probably be on guard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 29, 2008 Author Share Posted August 29, 2008 I think this is the one. Obviously Hanna is over the keys/SW FL. Gus hit SW LA about three days ago. On the right side are two more tropical systems. I think they should reverse their colour scheme because the Gulf should look like a bloodbath at this point. So, is that green spike on the TX/LA border the location where Gustav hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jax Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Latest models are more in favor of a path closer to the TX/LA border, but keep in mind that the general trend seems to be a shift of the models to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Just click fwd to animateYou'll be fascinated by these all day. They're more fun than the spaghetti lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 All computer models now (except one) have it hitting between Beaumont and Baton Rouge. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 30, 2008 Author Share Posted August 30, 2008 Alrighty then! Hurricane Gustav is now a solid Cat 3, with sustained winds at 120 mph. The newest NHC forecast path has a central Louisiana landfall. However, the computer models continue to show a westward lean with a wicked left turn as it hits land. The cause of the left turn is the high pressure ridge currently over the eastern to midwestern portion of the US. The various models have different opinions about how far south the ridge comes before Gustav bumps into it. At the point that they meet, Gustav is expected to slide west into Texas. If it bumps into the ridge far enough south, it could stay in the western Gulf and disintegrate. The official NHC path doesn't show much of this wicked left turn. The forecasters have commented on why. They aren't sure exactly when it will occur. They also were seeing the computer models flip back and forth from east to west and back to east. For consistency among forecasts, they kept the forecast path aimed at central La. I think what this means for us is that while the landfall may be east of us, either at the TX/LA border or a little east, it almost certainly will turn west toward Houston. Whether it turns west into Galveston, Pasadena, Conroe or Huntsville, who knows, but I think it is a pretty sure bet that it will end up in Texas as a hurricane, or very nearly so. The big question now is whether evacuations are ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 We're now in the 3-day cone. We have at least a major flooding threat then because Gustav is forecast to slow down on that westward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 We're now in the 3-day cone. We have at least a major flooding threat then because Gustav is forecast to slow down on that westward turn.Depends on where it turns. So far, it looks like it'll turn maybe a little north of Conroe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Alrighty then! Hurricane Gustav is now a solid Cat 3, with sustained winds at 120 mph. The newest NHC forecast path has a central Louisiana landfall. However, the computer models continue to show a westward lean with a wicked left turn as it hits land. The cause of the left turn is the high pressure ridge currently over the eastern to midwestern portion of the US. The various models have different opinions about how far south the ridge comes before Gustav bumps into it. At the point that they meet, Gustav is expected to slide west into Texas. If it bumps into the ridge far enough south, it could stay in the western Gulf and disintegrate. The official NHC path doesn't show much of this wicked left turn. The forecasters have commented on why. They aren't sure exactly when it will occur. They also were seeing the computer models flip back and forth from east to west and back to east. For consistency among forecasts, they kept the forecast path aimed at central La. I think what this means for us is that while the landfall may be east of us, either at the TX/LA border or a little east, it almost certainly will turn west toward Houston. Whether it turns west into Galveston, Pasadena, Conroe or Huntsville, who knows, but I think it is a pretty sure bet that it will end up in Texas as a hurricane, or very nearly so. The big question now is whether evacuations are ordered. Can someone please explain to me why evacuations started in the first place? I went through Carla,Alicia. and what we got of Rita. I live in Clear Lake, and we are the second zip code list to be evacuated. Until Rita, nobody ever mentioned the words "STORM SURGE" in connections with hurricanes. When and why did this phenomenon start? Do they actually expect me to believe that we will have over 20 feet of water in my subdivision that came all the way from Galveston? Also, regarding the evacuations. What if we just stay here? Are we in danger of being arrested? I evacuated last time, and our circumstances were entirely different than they are now. I want to stay here to protect my home and property. I do NOT want to stay on the road for 28 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Also,they have been talking about shelters - and animal friendly ones? Am I to believe that my 86 and 64 pound dogs, 2 cats, myself, my husband, my normal teenage son, and my bi-polar,violent son will be welcomed in a shelter?My 85 year old mother is registered with 211, but she is TOTALLY incapacitated, as in, cannot move. She is refusing to go and lives in zip code 77017. I guess we could conceivably stay with her (animals still an issue) but her zip code is on the evacuation maps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chenevert Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Also,they have been talking about shelters - and animal friendly ones? Am I to believe that my 86 and 64 pound dogs, 2 cats, myself, my husband, my normal teenage son, and my bi-polar,violent son will be welcomed in a shelter?My 85 year old mother is registered with 211, but she is TOTALLY incapacitated, as in, cannot move. She is refusing to go and lives in zip code 77017. I guess we could conceivably stay with her (animals still an issue) but her zip code is on the evacuation maps as well.Don't take this as being mean, as that is not its intention. However, 3 days before a Cat 3 Hurricane making landfall is not the time to be asking if a shelter will take your bi-polar son and 4 pets. It is also probably not the best time to realize that maybe your incapacitated mother should not be living in a hurricane evacuation zone. These are issues you should resolve before hurricane season even begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Gustav could be worse for New Orleans than Katrina was. Katrina hit New Orleans with the "weak" side. If Gustav hits in Central Louisiana (looking more likely), it'll hit New Orleans with the "strong" side: On Thursday and Friday some models, such as the GFDL, brought Gustav into Louisiana right over Plaquemines Parish, at an angle and location that would produce the worst possible surge in New Orleans. The panel below from yesterday's GFDL model shows category 4 winds blowing water directly into Lake Pontchartrain: The above model run is just about the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. In such a scenario water would flood into the city from the lake, which could drown the city again, and possibly to an even worse degree. Fortunately the model (as well as most others) now bring the storm just far enough west of New Orleans that the surge will likely be less than Katrina, but only a little. If the forecast track shifts even modestly to the east -- say 50 miles, well within the three-day error of such forecasts -- then New Orleans faces an extremely serious event. It's worth noting, of course, that Gustav could just as easily shift another 100 miles to the west, all but ending the threat to New Orleans. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 30, 2008 Author Share Posted August 30, 2008 Can someone please explain to me why evacuations started in the first place? I went through Carla,Alicia. and what we got of Rita. I live in Clear Lake, and we are the second zip code list to be evacuated. Until Rita, nobody ever mentioned the words "STORM SURGE" in connections with hurricanes. When and why did this phenomenon start? Do they actually expect me to believe that we will have over 20 feet of water in my subdivision that came all the way from Galveston?Also, regarding the evacuations. What if we just stay here? Are we in danger of being arrested?I evacuated last time, and our circumstances were entirely different than they are now. I want to stay here to protect my home and property. I do NOT want to stay on the road for 28 hours.Google Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Katrina and the 1900 storm. I believe the foundations for evacuations will become self evident.Texas law does not empower local governments with the authority to enforce mandatory evacuations by arrest. If and when the order to evacuate comes, citizens have the right to ignore the order to evacuate. This right comes with the responsibility to care for yourself. Once storms hit, emergency service providers take shelter until the storm passes. If you choose not to evacuate, you will be on your own.Most citizens look to their local government to provide accurate information on the location and severity of storms, and to provide information on how best to cope with it. While the local government will alert the citizens to the need to evacuate, as well as the preferred evacuation routes, you are expected to take that information and interpret it to your needs yourself. If your mother is registerred with 211, I suggest that you research their plans for evacuation, or contact 211 for answers to your questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 This is from last night. I expect Gustav to reach Cat 5 status around Sunday and be near 900 MB. Right now, they predict it to only (yeah, only) be a Cat 4 around Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Don't take this as being mean, as that is not its intention. However, 3 days before a Cat 3 Hurricane making landfall is not the time to be asking if a shelter will take your bi-polar son and 4 pets. It is also probably not the best time to realize that maybe your incapacitated mother should not be living in a hurricane evacuation zone. These are issues you should resolve before hurricane season even begins.Don't take this as being mean, either, but if we COULD have resolved them by now, we WOULD have resolved them by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 935 mb!!!!!! OH MY GOD! A 20 mb drop in 2 hours!Cat. 4 am confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmariar Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Can someone please explain to me why evacuations started in the first place? I went through Carla,Alicia. and what we got of Rita. I live in Clear Lake, and we are the second zip code list to be evacuated. Until Rita, nobody ever mentioned the words "STORM SURGE" in connections with hurricanes. When and why did this phenomenon start? Do they actually expect me to believe that we will have over 20 feet of water in my subdivision that came all the way from Galveston?I can't remember if you're new to Clear Lake, but I grew up there, and we worried about storm-surge flooding (from the gulf, which is 5 miles from Clear Lake) with every hurricane headed our way. We experienced bad street flooding during Alicia, and a tornado damaged several houses across the street. If you're thinking the city is somehow misadvising you, I'd suggest talking to neighbors who are long-time residents - having that additional information and perspective may help you make the right decision for yourself, your family, and your pets. Though you don't want to be planning for past storms if the storm creeping up on you could be worse.And if you're concerned about the situation you and your mother might be put in during an evacuation, you can evacuate early and avoid the traffic. I don't know where 77017 is, but someone impossible to evacuate should obviously not be living in an evacuation zone. I'm hoping you mean just that it would be difficult for your mother to evacuate and, if so, that she is on the city's evacuation assistance list if you're not going to be able to assist her. [Edit: Just saw that you said she is - I'll leave the link in case anyone else needs it.]It's true that few if any public shelters welcome pets. Now is the time to be finding alternative temporary accommodations for them outside of an evacuation zone. Nobody is going to force you to leave your house or do anything else to prepare for a hurricane - you can take whatever risks you like. But I imagine you'd want to act conservatively given your family and pet situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLWM8609 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Until Rita, nobody ever mentioned the words "STORM SURGE" in connections with hurricanes. Someone must not have watched Dr. Frank prior to 2005! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Oh damn. So, Gustav wants an encore? Models have it turning back around after landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricco67 Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Also,they have been talking about shelters - and animal friendly ones? Am I to believe that my 86 and 64 pound dogs, 2 cats, myself, my husband, my normal teenage son, and my bi-polar,violent son will be welcomed in a shelter?My 85 year old mother is registered with 211, but she is TOTALLY incapacitated, as in, cannot move. She is refusing to go and lives in zip code 77017. I guess we could conceivably stay with her (animals still an issue) but her zip code is on the evacuation maps as well.I'm inclined to take Chenevert's side on this side. Take this from someone who was stupid enough to go clear lake in the teeth of Allison (which was ONLY a WEAK tropical storm), don't wait until the last minute, go to a hotel in katy for a couple of days with the brood and mom. I LIVE in the 77017 and once this over a cat 3, I decided I was outta here. It's a cat 4 now, so guess what? 24hrs before the storm, depending on which side is going to hit, I'm either going to stay in place or head towards friend's in katy.I only have myself to look after, so I have the luxury of deciding at the last moment,can you get your act together in the same amount of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted August 30, 2008 Author Share Posted August 30, 2008 Hardin, Jefferson and Orange Counties have begun voluntary evacuations. They may become mandatory tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I wonder how often Cuba gets hurricanes of this force. This is 6 mph below Category 5 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 I wonder how often Cuba gets hurricanes of this force. This is 6 mph below Category 5 strength.And Havana (largest city in Cuba, as well as capital), is getting the bad side of Gustav. They are getting hit hella hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Simulated radar for the next few daysIt's not quite as cool as some of the other loops, but it's pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20thStDad Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Cuba is right in line for Hannah, too. Not a good time to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted August 30, 2008 Share Posted August 30, 2008 Cuba is right in line for Hannah, too. Not a good time to be there. Is it ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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