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Hurricane Gustav


RedScare

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Sorry it took so long to push this into the Breaking News category. The new hotel I'm in has the world's WORST internet connection. (You have a choice, sir -- in-room internet, or a non-smoking room)

Feel free to split the conversation into multiple Gustav-related threads. We'll merge them after the storm is over if necessary.

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HARRIS COUNTY OFFICIALS ENCOURAGING RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL HEALTH CARE AND TRANSPORTATION NEEDS TO REGISTER WITH 2-1-1

(Harris County, TX) Emergency officials are reminding Harris County residents with special health care or transportation needs to register with the state's transportation registry if you will need help evacuating in the event of a hurricane.

Dial 2-1-1 as soon as possible:

. If you have a disability or special health care need and require assistance to get out.

. If you cannot drive and cannot arrange transportation.

. If you do not have a vehicle and you have no one else to help you evacuate.

Local emergency management will make every attempt to evacuate someone who does not have the ability to evacuate themselves, as long as the person is in the direct path of the storm. In the event of a hurricane entering the Gulf, individuals should pay close attention to local media to determine when/how evacuations will take place. If someone needs specialized transportation and has not been contacted, 2-1-1 Texas Information and Referral Specialists will have referrals for those callers at the appropriate time.

Another reason for the registration process is to give local emergency planners a better idea of the numbers of individuals who may need assistance, and the type of assistance they may need. It is essential that all individuals have a personal plan concerning evacuation needs that includes family, friends, or neighbors who may be able to assist them.

It is critical that you begin now to make your evacuation plans, prepare an emergency kit and learn the evacuation routes. This should be done well in advance.

Operators answering the phones at 2-1-1 and 877-541-7905 for the hearing impaired, are prepared to help you register now, before a hurricane strikes.

Hurricane Preparedness tips on the Web:

Harris Co. Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management: www.hcoem.org

Governor's Division of Emergency Management: www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): www.Ready.gov

The American Red Cross: www.redcross.org

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS URGE RESIDENTS

TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY

(Harris County, TX) - With Hurricane Gustav heading towards the Gulf Coast Harris County emergency officials are urging residents to protect their homes or businesses from the force of hurricane winds, board up doors and windows with plywood or install storm shutters. Keep in mind that winds are stronger at higher elevations, such as high-rise apartments or condos.

. Bring in outdoor objects that could become deadly missiles, such as patio furniture, hanging plants, trash cans, gardening tools and barbecues.

. If your home is vulnerable to rising water, move furniture and valuables to a higher level.

. Before evacuating, cut off your electricity and turn off the gas. Downed electrical wires and broken gas pipes can be deadly and cause serious property damage. Make a final walk-through inspection of your home before leaving.

. Motor boats securely or move them to designated safe areas well in advance of hurricanes. Do not try to tow a trailer or boat in high winds. It can be very hazardous.

. Assemble a family emergency supplies kit and have it ready to go at a moment's notice. It should contain the following items: radio and flashlight with extra batteries, extra eye glasses, medications and prescriptions, special products for babies and the elderly, bottled water, non-perishable food, clothes, bedding and important documents sealed in waterproof containers.

. When officials recommend evacuation, leave. Do not try to ride out a hurricane in a high-risk area. Seek shelter inland with family or friends, at a hotel or designated shelter. Notify relatives and friends of your plans, and confirm hotel reservations.

. Find out where shelters are located along your route in case clogged roads prevent you from reaching your destination.

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It'll have to get back over water before it reaches 5, but it will no doubt. It really looks like its going NNW instead of WNW.

Hanna is just circling around waiting for her turn, but a couple of models are pointing it to the GA-SC border. Hanna in Savannah sounds too weird.

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The storm is now moving to the NW or NNW. Updated forecast tracks from Accuweather takes it directly to the west of New Orleans. The city might cease to exist after this.

Edited by Trae
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The storm is now moving to the NW or NNW. Updated forecast tracks from Accuweather takes it directly to the west of New Orleans. The city might cease to exist after this.

You have a real knack for hyperbolistic/apocalyptic weather reporting. Perhaps you should aim to a career as a television weatherman.

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I can't remember if you're new to Clear Lake, but I grew up there, and we worried about storm-surge flooding (from the gulf, which is 5 miles from Clear Lake) with every hurricane headed our way. We experienced bad street flooding during Alicia, and a tornado damaged several houses across the street. If you're thinking the city is somehow misadvising you, I'd suggest talking to neighbors who are long-time residents - having that additional information and perspective may help you make the right decision for yourself, your family, and your pets. Though you don't want to be planning for past storms if the storm creeping up on you could be worse.

And if you're concerned about the situation you and your mother might be put in during an evacuation, you can evacuate early and avoid the traffic. I don't know where 77017 is, but someone impossible to evacuate should obviously not be living in an evacuation zone. I'm hoping you mean just that it would be difficult for your mother to evacuate and, if so, that she is on the city's evacuation assistance list if you're not going to be able to assist her. [Edit: Just saw that you said she is - I'll leave the link in case anyone else needs it.]

It's true that few if any public shelters welcome pets. Now is the time to be finding alternative temporary accommodations for them outside of an evacuation zone. Nobody is going to force you to leave your house or do anything else to prepare for a hurricane - you can take whatever risks you like. But I imagine you'd want to act conservatively given your family and pet situation.

Thank you for your information and kind words. I have lived in Clear Lake since 1991. Obviously, the only hurricane we went through was Rita, and when they started talking storm sugre I didn't understand it. However, 77017 (think Park Place off the Gulf Freeway into downtown) is ALSO in the evacuation zone, same storm surge reason, and there was no storm surge from Alicia. Where would this water be coming from?

Thanks for the helpful information.

PW

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Thank you for your information and kind words. I have lived in Clear Lake since 1991. Obviously, the only hurricane we went through was Rita, and when they started talking storm sugre I didn't understand it. However, 77017 (think Park Place off the Gulf Freeway into downtown) is ALSO in the evacuation zone, same storm surge reason, and there was no storm surge from Alicia. Where would this water be coming from?

Thanks for the helpful information.

PW

Being in Clear Lake, you may have to worry...depending where exactly you are. But storm surge won't hit Park Place, ever. It'll be flattened by winds and tornadoes before it gets flooded out by storm surge.

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You have a real knack for hyperbolistic/apocalyptic weather reporting. Perhaps you should aim to a career as a television weatherman.

That's pretty much the warning behind Nagin's words. Maybe the mayor knows its hyperbole but he wants to get people out. If that was the case, could Nagin or Trae ever please TheNiche?

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That's pretty much the warning behind Nagin's words. Maybe the mayor knows its hyperbole but he wants to get people out. If that was the case, could Nagin or Trae ever please TheNiche?

When officials and trusted media sources dramatically overstate the dangers related to a kind of disaster too many times, people stop taking them seriously and are more prone to put themselves into a genuinely dangerous situation. So yes, if Trae and Naggin only reported the facts, projections, realistic outcomes, and the planned response in a calm and sane way that people could reason with, that would please me.

For instance, I think that Rita was overhyped and that many people that really should be getting out of dangerous areas and poorly-built homes probably will not do so when the next big storm strikes because they don't trust the sources providing warnings to be accurate and realistic.

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When officials and trusted media sources dramatically overstate the dangers related to a kind of disaster too many times, people stop taking them seriously and are more prone to put themselves into a genuinely dangerous situation. So yes, if Trae and Naggin only reported the facts, projections, realistic outcomes, and the planned response in a calm and sane way that people could reason with, that would please me.

For instance, I think that Rita was overhyped and that many people that really should be getting out of dangerous areas and poorly-built homes probably will not do so when the next big storm strikes because they don't trust the sources providing warnings to be accurate and realistic.

I think you should talk to a few Port Arthur and Beaumont residents before you make claims that Rita was overhyped. Then again, after reading your comments on the presidential thread, NO ONE knows hyperbole and overhype like you do. Perhaps I and others should yield to your overwelming expertise in hyperbole.

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Thank you for your information and kind words. I have lived in Clear Lake since 1991. Obviously, the only hurricane we went through was Rita, and when they started talking storm sugre I didn't understand it. However, 77017 (think Park Place off the Gulf Freeway into downtown) is ALSO in the evacuation zone, same storm surge reason, and there was no storm surge from Alicia. Where would this water be coming from?

Thanks for the helpful information.

PW

Well, you are "kinda" close to the Ship Channel, but for a storm surge to travel that far, it would have be more like a 200 foot tsunami wave to come that far inland. I think you'll be safe if storm surge was all you have to worry about Pap. If this one hits you guys at a Cat 4, you need to worry about the winds and flying debris off of 50 to 60 year old houses, that had no kind of Hurricane code at the time they were built. What I'm saying is, anything over a Cat 2, you may want to consider booking a room in College Station or Brenham.

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I think you should talk to a few Port Arthur and Beaumont residents before you make claims that Rita was overhyped. Then again, after reading your comments on the presidential thread, NO ONE knows hyperbole and overhype like you do. Perhaps I and others should yield to your overwelming expertise in hyperbole.

You are so correct here Red. There are people that are on both sides of the Sabine river, that still are trying to recover completly. Which the Sabine is where Rita made landfall. It was one of the most devistating things I had ever personally witness. Rita wasn't over-hyped, just was predicted incorrectly. Once the storm made the shelf, it drew a beeline for the warm water outlet of Sabine Pass. It traveled up the sabine river to Toledo Bend and then dispersed into a tropical storm and spread out over East Texas and Western Louisiana. The carnage was devistating to both sides of the Sabine River inland for over 100 miles. I lost three drilling rigs, two workover rigs, and a production facility on the Gray Estate in Vinton. Everthing on the eastern banks was blown northward, and everything on the western banks was blown southward. Definate evidense that the eye traveled straight up river, and in a way, allowed the storm to live a little longer feeding off the waters of the Sabine. There were people in that area that didn't have power to there homes for months, not just a few days, months. I evacuated my office in Vinton 11 hours before it made landfall, only to return to nothing but a foundation left. Amazingly enough, the 180 year old Victorian Mansion, on the Gray estate survived, it was 1/2 mile from my office and closer to the banks of the Sabine. It has survived many storms, and just lost roofing tiles on the south side of the place. The Stables and the Barns were gone, but the old house was still standing. Really amazing. Kinda like that scene at the end of the Movie Twister. You can drive in the area to this day and their are houses with blue FEMA tarps still on the roof. There are still a ton of contractors still in the area trying to catch up. Over-hyped? Not hardly, just missed the predicted point of land fall by 100 miles. And really I am thankful it did, Houston would have be in hell of a shape, and with the botched evacuation system and people being trapped in gridlock, there would have been a lot more loss of life. Sure I lost an operation there, but I was insured, and not one of my employees were killed, so I can live with that. I actually came out smelling like a rose finacially, everyone laughs at me for being overly insured all the time. But I got the last laugh that time.

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I used to live in New Orleans.

If the politicians had any brains/guts, they would have declared that no public funds could be spent on structures in the lower altitudes after Katrina. The founders of N.O. built the French Quarter where they did because it was the HIGHEST point in the area. The coastline has eroded terribly since the city was originally established - Louisiana loses 25 square miles of coast per year. Yet, with all our advanced technology and knowledge, leaders have put emotion ahead of common sense.

New Orleans needs to become a much smaller city than it used to be.

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I think you should talk to a few Port Arthur and Beaumont residents before you make claims that Rita was overhyped. Then again, after reading your comments on the presidential thread, NO ONE knows hyperbole and overhype like you do. Perhaps I and others should yield to your overwelming expertise in hyperbole.

I think Niche meant people closer to the houston area,you know where massive evacuations took place, where people died driving 20 hrs to get to somewhere just outside of the metro.. and we didnt get much weather related incidents And all because media,forecasters,and public officials led us(and me too) to believe this was katrina all over again for texans in the SE gulf coast

yeah and Trae's message was a little too much.. :P but Niche can be very hard to please

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I think you should talk to a few Port Arthur and Beaumont residents before you make claims that Rita was overhyped. Then again, after reading your comments on the presidential thread, NO ONE knows hyperbole and overhype like you do. Perhaps I and others should yield to your overwelming expertise in hyperbole.

Red, I'm talking about it having been overhyped for Houston. And you know it was. If anything, it got under-hyped for Beaumont on account of that the media seemed to latch on to the expected (i.e. mean) outcome, throwing all other statistical theory out the window. Had they provided realistic coverage, you wouldn't have seen so many people in the northern suburbs fleeing, herded to Dallas like the sheep they are, or so many people in Beaumont caught off guard.

Sorry if I was a tad bit sloppy in terms of articulating myself. I have a higher expectation of your ability to read between the lines than perhaps is justified. <_<

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Red, I'm talking about it having been overhyped for Houston. And you know it was. If anything, it got under-hyped for Beaumont on account of that the media seemed to latch on to the expected (i.e. mean) outcome, throwing all other statistical theory out the window. Had they provided realistic coverage, you wouldn't have seen so many people in the northern suburbs fleeing, herded to Dallas like the sheep they are, or so many people in Beaumont caught off guard.

Sorry if I was a tad bit sloppy in terms of articulating myself. I have a higher expectation of your ability to read between the lines than perhaps is justified. <_<

I am not fond of defending television blowhards, but you and citizen4rmptown seem to be engaging in quite a bit of revisionist history. Recall that when Rita was in the Gulf, it reached Cat 5 staus, with top winds of 165 mph. The NHC and computer models pointed it directly at Galveston and Houston right up until the last hours before landfall. Just before hitting land it veered toward Baumont, sparing the Houston metro. Even then, landfall was only 60 miles from major metro destruction. Occurring just 2 weeks after Katrina, the hysteria was understandable.

For you and citizen to look back 3 years later and claim that all the hype was for nothing, since it didn't hit YOUR house, is more than just a little intellectually dishonest.

I'd like to think that near miss and the inability of the public to understand that the news media does not control hurricane paths has contributed to a less hysterical approach to hurricane coverage this season. Alas, the next hurricane path that centers on Houston will probably bring it back, and if it veers away again, I expect you and citizen to blame the media again.

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Having made my point on the media coverage, let me now complain about two things that we do NOT do well. One, the local and state governments do NOT spend nearly enough time educating the public as to what hurricanes can do, and to whom. Rita's evacuation problems related to non-required evacuees clogging the roads. While the City of Houston has attempted to allay the fears of those living north of I-10, much more should be done. The local TV outlets should put on a half hour program every June, SPONSORED by Houston and Harris County, that educates the public about storms. Most importantly, it should go into detail about the winds expected inland, and the ability of wind rated homes to withstand it. Retrofits, from inexpensive to complete, should also be discussed. An informed populace is a calm one. Witness THIS year's New Orleans versus 2005's.

Secondly, the State of Texas needs to get off its ass and enact home building standards for coastal and second tier counties for wind rated homes. The best way to survive a storm is to be sheltered in a safe home. If Perry would push for wind rated building standards in the counties, we wouldn't have to panic over evacuation routes, with the exception of coastal residents.

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I am not fond of defending television blowhards, but you and citizen4rmptown seem to be engaging in quite a bit of revisionist history. Recall that when Rita was in the Gulf, it reached Cat 5 staus, with top winds of 165 mph. The NHC and computer models pointed it directly at Galveston and Houston right up until the last hours before landfall. Just before hitting land it veered toward Baumont, sparing the Houston metro. Even then, landfall was only 60 miles from major metro destruction. Occurring just 2 weeks after Katrina, the hysteria was understandable.

For you and citizen to look back 3 years later and claim that all the hype was for nothing, since it didn't hit YOUR house, is more than just a little intellectually dishonest.

I'd like to think that near miss and the inability of the public to understand that the news media does not control hurricane paths has contributed to a less hysterical approach to hurricane coverage this season. Alas, the next hurricane path that centers on Houston will probably bring it back, and if it veers away again, I expect you and citizen to blame the media again.

I have to agree with Red. I remember waking up early the morning before landfall and watching if it made a turn on whether or not I would leave. As soon as I saw the jog to the north, I just laid down and slept through most of the storm.

My main issue right now is how Michael Moore (who I overall can't stand) is giddy that we have a storm that coincides with the RNP. The fact that the Ex- Democratic chairman basically feels the same way just pushes me harder into the McCain/Palin Camp to the point that I'm pushing the lever to ® this election year.

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I used to live in New Orleans.

If the politicians had any brains/guts, they would have declared that no public funds could be spent on structures in the lower altitudes after Katrina. The founders of N.O. built the French Quarter where they did because it was the HIGHEST point in the area. The coastline has eroded terribly since the city was originally established - Louisiana loses 25 square miles of coast per year. Yet, with all our advanced technology and knowledge, leaders have put emotion ahead of common sense.

New Orleans needs to become a much smaller city than it used to be.

And what about all the poor families that had owned and lived in the same homes for generations? Or the wealthy slumlord political contributors that owned the rest of the homes/lots? What is common sense for the politicians is that if all these poor people and politically connected slumlords see that the value of their lots go to zero on the basis of that the lot cannot ever be developed, it'll be their heads on a platter, televised on cable news. It would be the end of their political career.

There is an alternative, though, that is better than outright bans. It is insurance. Banks refuse to lend money on a home or commercial property unless it is insured. In floodprone areas, they require flood insurance. In coastal counties, this includes a Windstorm & Hail policy that covers hurricanes. These are not inexpensive, and act as a deterrent to development. To the extent that a development is in such high demand that it remains justified in spite of the higher cost, it can still be built.

Municipalities in dangerous areas also need an insurance policy, one that at least protects against massive reductions in tax revenues as a result of disasters. This does mean higher taxes in those jurisdictions in any given year, but allows for the uninterrupted continuation of city services after the disaster and also acts to deter (but not prevent) growth in jurisdictions that are particularly risky/expensive. IMO these ought to be the responsibility of the state, county, and municipality, and not of the federal government. Any expenditures made by the federal government on disaster relief that aren't directly related to federal infrastructure (like the Mississippi River channel, military bases, federal offices, etc.) should be paid back by state/county/municipality governments, inclusive of interest at such a rate as reflects the full risk of those entities.

Edited by TheNiche
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And what about all the poor families that had owned and lived in the same homes for generations? Or the wealthy slumlord political contributors that owned the rest of the homes/lots? What is common sense for the politicians is that if all these poor people and politically connected slumlords see that the value of their lots go to zero on the basis of that the lot cannot ever be developed, it'll be their heads on a platter, televised on cable news. It would be the end of their political career.

There is an alternative, though, that is better than outright bans. It is insurance. Banks refuse to lend money on a home or commercial property unless it is insured. In floodprone areas, they require flood insurance. In coastal counties, this includes a Windstorm & Hail policy that covers hurricanes. These are not inexpensive, and act as a deterrent to development. To the extent that a development is in such high demand that it remains justified in spite of the higher cost, it can still be built.

Municipalities in dangerous areas also need an insurance policy, one that at least protects against massive reductions in tax revenues as a result of disasters. This does mean higher taxes in those jurisdictions in any given year, but allows for the uninterrupted continuation of city services after the disaster and also acts to deter (but not prevent) growth in jurisdictions that are particularly risky/expensive. IMO these ought to be the responsibility of the state, county, and municipality, and not of the federal government. Any expenditures made by the federal government on disaster relief that aren't directly related to federal infrastructure (like the Mississippi River channel, military bases, federal offices, etc.) should be paid back by state/county/municipality governments, inclusive of interest at such a rate as reflects the full risk of those entities.

While insurance is important and a necessary component, it must be tied to construction standards. If a home is looking to be destroyed every 3 to 5 years, no amount of insurance will correct that, and insurance for everyone else will increase. The two things that cause damage are wind and flood. Construction techniques CAN build homes that withstand 150 mph winds. Additionally, cities like Houston and New Orleans will virtually never experience 150 mph winds, due to their inland status and the shallow Gulf in front of them. 130 mph wind ratings will suffice.

Like Houston is attempting to do...to the consternation of home owners and builders...no construction should be allowed in flood plains. As expensive as it is, if New Orleans is looking at getting flooded every 3 to 5 years, it should look to requiring floor elevations above certain flood levels. It could be accomplished by stilts, or a Galveston style house and land raising, although I would recommend that street levels remain lowered for storm water retention, and only the yards raised. Since the third option of abandoning a major city is not a realistic option, this should be looked at seriously as a way for the US to keep from spending $100 Billion on storm recovery every 5 years. Spend it once, instead of often.

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I am not fond of defending television blowhards, but you and citizen4rmptown seem to be engaging in quite a bit of revisionist history. Recall that when Rita was in the Gulf, it reached Cat 5 staus, with top winds of 165 mph. The NHC and computer models pointed it directly at Galveston and Houston right up until the last hours before landfall. Just before hitting land it veered toward Baumont, sparing the Houston metro. Even then, landfall was only 60 miles from major metro destruction. Occurring just 2 weeks after Katrina, the hysteria was understandable.

For you and citizen to look back 3 years later and claim that all the hype was for nothing, since it didn't hit YOUR house, is more than just a little intellectually dishonest.

Yes, it was a Cat 5. I didn't dispute that. Yes, it had top sustained winds of 165 mph. I didn't dispute that. The models were pointing at Houston. I didn't dispute that. Landfall was only 60 miles from what would otherwise have been a very much more destructive path. I didn't dispute that. To claim that I'm engaging in some kind of revisionism is ridiculous...but something I've come to expect from you.

And I categorically deny claiming that the hype was for nothing! You are grossly misrepresenting me.

But the models were presented as being perfectly accurate. The concept of confidence interavals took a back seat to the concept of expected (mean) outcome. And certainly the dangers associated with the hurricane's effects were not presented in a realistic way. To say that people were more hysterical because Katrina was a recent memory is reasonable enough, but that does not forgive the media for not providing realistic coverage of the effects. And not much has changed since then, witness some of the ridiculous coverage of TS Edouard.

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While insurance is important and a necessary component, it must be tied to construction standards. If a home is looking to be destroyed every 3 to 5 years, no amount of insurance will correct that, and insurance for everyone else will increase. The two things that cause damage are wind and flood. Construction techniques CAN build homes that withstand 150 mph winds. Additionally, cities like Houston and New Orleans will virtually never experience 150 mph winds, due to their inland status and the shallow Gulf in front of them. 130 mph wind ratings will suffice.

Like Houston is attempting to do...to the consternation of home owners and builders...no construction should be allowed in flood plains. As expensive as it is, if New Orleans is looking at getting flooded every 3 to 5 years, it should look to requiring floor elevations above certain flood levels. It could be accomplished by stilts, or a Galveston style house and land raising, although I would recommend that street levels remain lowered for storm water retention, and only the yards raised. Since the third option of abandoning a major city is not a realistic option, this should be looked at seriously as a way for the US to keep from spending $100 Billion on storm recovery every 5 years. Spend it once, instead of often.

I tend to agree with you that even fairly inexpensive minimum construction standards would be beneficial, although I'm hestitant to take on Florida codes in most places because there is a point of overkill...but that doesn't mean that a homeowner that does build beyond the point of overkill couldn't get a break on their insurance cost, either.

I do think that construction should be allowed in flood plains, but that water should be allowed to flow freely under the living area of the structure...not only to prevent or minimize damage, but also because if the flow of water is impeded by a structure, it can reduce the flow of floodwaters and cause worse flooding upstream. So there is a legitimate concern, but an outright ban of construction in the flood plain (or as Houston was actually proposing, the floodway) is not justified.

Btw, if I wanted to be a jackass, I could smear your name in mud for having provided misinformation to forumers by having confused flood plains and floodways and for having posted something that wasn't perfectly clear. But I'm not going to. I am not a jackass. ;)

Spend it once, instead of often.

This isn't necessarily good policy. I suggest you read up on concepts of time value of money and net present value.

Edited by TheNiche
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