Hurricane Gustav

[RedScare]

Is it bad to hope it moves away, since the most likely target is east of NO where Katrina hit? NOAA's biggie models are pointing east now, but that could easily change. OTOH, hurricanes do seem to hit to the right of the center line, which is what Edouard and Rita both did.

Normally, they do tend to curl around some high pressure ridge, which makes them turn north. The strange thing about the computer models now is that they have a left hook on the end of them, suggesting this one may turn into us instead of away from us.

[JLWM8609]

Right now, the "cone of uncertainty" is showing it could make landfall anywhere between Corpus Christi and Gulf Breeze, FL, but projected landfall now as of the latest update (1 AM CST) looks like somewhere east of Lake Charles.

[Trae]

It won't make landfall in Houston from the new models really. Instead, either to the southwest, or east of our metro area:

[Daniepwils]

If it hit Houston directly would you leave if you live downtown? I am not sure what to do, but I think I have a false sense of security living in a high-rise downtown. I am thinking about staying put (our building has told us that we have backup generators for enough power for a week, without any electric rationing). The only other place I have to go would be to my parents house in Tomball.

Rita wasn't an issue for me because my dad and uncle both insisted on flying the family out at the last minute -- that was a surreal day, seeing the highways like they were. I think they said they won't do that again unless it is a cat5.

[houstonmacbro]

If it hit Houston directly would you leave if you live downtown? I am not sure what to do, but I think I have a false sense of security living in a high-rise downtown. I am thinking about staying put (our building has told us that we have backup generators for enough power for a week, without any electric rationing). The only other place I have to go would be to my parents house in Tomball.

Rita wasn't an issue for me because my dad and uncle both insisted on flying the family out at the last minute -- that was a surreal day, seeing the highways like they were. I think they said they won't do that again unless it is a cat5.

Just so we're clear, I was really just joking. While I understand the awesome power of hurricanes from both wind, rain, and flood damage, I am with your dad. Unless it is a Cat3-5 I am staying put. I have been in Houston my entire young adult life and saw many a storm in a house much less solidly built than the one I am in (and a lot further south and surrounded by way more trees).

Unless it is just on a direct course, and unless it is really strong, I am staying put too.

(Oh yeah, I am glad my neighborhood power lines are buried. Hopefully any power outages would be minimal).

[Pumapayam]

I just don't want it to hit. It's a nice holiday weekend coming up, and I don't feel like resurrecting my Frank Billingsley "Hunker Down" avatar after I just made my Caturday one.

[westguy]

Billingsly isn't the only weatherman who says that.

The other storm, Hanna, may also visit the Gulf of Mexico next week. If Gustav hits that will be the third Texas strike in the same season, almost consecutively.

[Highway6]

If Houston had to evacuate.. for this hurricane or for any other future reason.... How would you flee ?

A ) The road more traveled - 290, 45, any other official evac route interstate that has more lane capacity, but much more fleeing volume of cars.... also more access to gas.

B ) The road less traveled - Attempt to flee on major back roads and Farm Roads, e.g. Stuebner Airline, FM2920, FM 149, FM 1774, with less capacity, but likely lesser volume of fleeing cars.

[sevfiv]

Only southeast and east Houston are in evacuation zone C - so I hope most of Houston stays put.

[Jax]

Three of the latest computer models show it hitting LA and three show it hitting TX, one of which shows it making landfall to the east of Galveston Bay (Bolivar Peninsula). So it's still a toss up. I'll be interesting to see how the computer models evolve throughout the next few days. They're definitely shifting west though, which is a bad sign for us.

[Pumapayam]

If Houston had to evacuate.. for this hurricane or for any other future reason.... How would you flee ?

A ) The road more traveled - 290, 45, any other official evac route interstate that has more lane capacity, but much more fleeing volume of cars.... also more access to gas.

B ) The road less traveled - Attempt to flee on major back roads and Farm Roads, e.g. Stuebner Airline, FM2920, FM 149, FM 1774, with less capacity, but likely lesser volume of fleeing cars.

I would stick with the majority A, especially since contraflow lanes will be implemented in a more timely manner this time.

[houstonmacbro]

I think I'd take the roads less traveled. I am just not sure how far up Kuykendahl goes. I've heard it stops somewhere at the Woodlands, meaning I'd still have to drive back over to I45.

[Pumapayam]

I think I'd take the roads less traveled. I am just not sure how far up Kuykendahl goes. I've heard it stops somewhere at the Woodlands, meaning I'd still have to drive back over to I45.

houstonmacdaddybro, aren't you already in NW houston though. Heck you just have to exit your neighborhood and you are already evacuated.

[TheNiche]

If Houston had to evacuate.. for this hurricane or for any other future reason.... How would you flee ?

A ) The road more traveled - 290, 45, any other official evac route interstate that has more lane capacity, but much more fleeing volume of cars.... also more access to gas.

B ) The road less traveled - Attempt to flee on major back roads and Farm Roads, e.g. Stuebner Airline, FM2920, FM 149, FM 1774, with less capacity, but likely lesser volume of fleeing cars.

C) Tiny little back roads. And I'm not saying which ones.

D) Traverse the coast. Go toward Corpus Christi or Louisiana.

I live inside the loop in a high-and-dry location. But I'd evacuate anyway, taking advantage of days off work for some R&R. I won't be adding to congestion almost at all, though, because I move independently of the herd.

[sarahiki]

C) Tiny little back roads. And I'm not saying which ones.

D) Traverse the coast. Go toward Corpus Christi or Louisiana.

I live inside the loop in a high-and-dry location. But I'd evacuate anyway, taking advantage of days off work for some R&R. I won't be adding to congestion almost at all, though, because I move independently of the herd.

I don't see any reason to leave except the possibility of days without AC. Am I right in thinking that even at Cat 5 storm would weaken to Cat 4 at the most by the time it hit Houston, because of moving over a little bit of land? I think our home can withstand a Cat 4 storm. What I saw of the evacuation for Rita makes me think evacuating with small children would be less pleasant and more dangerous than staying.

[Pumapayam]

The lastest cone of uncertainty is more certain that it is a bit further east than the last forecast now. See nothing to fear.

[20thStDad]

Like Red said before, Houston proper is inland enough to not even be affected by a storm surge. Rain and wind, yeah that might be a pain if your place is not well built or directly exposed where there are 80 mph winds hitting you straight on. The winds will be less inland than on the coast. The real danger I see are the tornados that often spawn in the bad quadrant. You can't predict them, and they will mess you up.

[RedScare]

I don't see any reason to leave except the possibility of days without AC. Am I right in thinking that even at Cat 5 storm would weaken to Cat 4 at the most by the time it hit Houston, because of moving over a little bit of land? I think our home can withstand a Cat 4 storm. What I saw of the evacuation for Rita makes me think evacuating with small children would be less pleasant and more dangerous than staying.

Actually, a Cat 5 would likely weaken to a Cat 3 by the time it hit Houston, according to a National Hurrican Center map I saw once. I'll try to find it. Another thing to consider is that the Guld gets very shallow in the last 30 miles or so before Galveston, so it is not very likely that a storm would even be Cat 5 at landfall.

In the meantime, check out this uber-cool map that the City of Houston has on its website. As you roll your cursor across it, it gives maximum predicted winds based on current projections, as well as maximum sustained winds for some of our most infamous storms.

Check it out!

[sheeats]

C) Tiny little back roads. And I'm not saying which ones.

D) Traverse the coast. Go toward Corpus Christi or Louisiana.

I live inside the loop in a high-and-dry location. But I'd evacuate anyway, taking advantage of days off work for some R&R. I won't be adding to congestion almost at all, though, because I move independently of the herd.

My company made me go to Austin before Hurricane Rita, just so they'd have someone from the team operational during that time. I took one of those tiny little back roads and was in Austin in three-and-a-half hours. Boo-yah.

...crazy people on 290 and I-10...

[RedScare]

Voila!

Predicted Inland Wind Speeds For Cat 4 Hurricane

Note that the Cat 4 winds dissipate almost immediately upon landfall. Throughout most of Houston, winds would likely not exceed 109 mph, and then only with a fast moving storm. Most of us in most storms would see less than 100 mph winds. The City of Houston requires all new residential construction to withstand 120 mph winds. If your house has hurricane clips and OSB on the studs, it is built to the new specs. I think it has been in effect for at least 5 years.

[westguy]

Check it out!

I don't think that's right. It's giving 75-77 mph all over Houston during Alicia, but I believe that hurricane force winds only made it as far as Hobby. Still, that's all it took for most areas to be out of power for a week.

[RedScare]

Yeah, I think they were a bit generous on Alicia.

[ricco67]

Because I currently reside in Pasadena, if a cat 3 comes, I just might stay with relatives over by jersey village. other than that, no big deal.

A cat 5 wouldn't pose a danger to those on the west side of town, so they just should just hunker down.

[KatieDidIt]

The power was out after Alicia as far out as highway 6 for two weeks.

Wind and rain I can handle. 100 degree heat with bugs and no AC, I can't. Making reservations for after the storm just in case.

[Daniepwils]

Ok so is a high rise safe in those winds? (I am on the 8th floor of my building in the middle of downtown). I would move everything to interior rooms of course and have a closet to hunker down in that is close to the stairwell (I am guessing that is the safest place in a building, the core)

[Jax]

Latest data as of 2 pm shows that two different computer models predict a hit on the Houston metro area. For some reason they are evacuating people from the Louisiana coast already though, but I guess they're really nervous after Katrina

[RedScare]

The latest NHC path does not seem to reflect that 4 of the 6 computer models now aim at Texas. I expect the 4 pm path to hit the TX/LA border, which is only about 65 miles linearly from Galveston. Personally, I think we are much more under the gun than New Orleans.

[arisegundo]

Basically, if it goes to SE Louisiana it will be there 24 to 48 hours before it would make landfall if it turns left to Texas. So while LA and TX should both be on alert, Louisiana has to act sooner because by the time we have a better idea of where Gus is actually going it will be too late to move people. It looks like Southeast Texas has until at least late Sunday before it becomes crunch time. I, for one, will be near a tv, radio, or computer all weekend.

[westguy]

NHC gives greater weight to the HWRF and GFDL models. The one that basically strikes the LA coast and heads back down is a bit disconcerting.

[Trae]

The latest NHC path does not seem to reflect that 4 of the 6 computer models now aim at Texas. I expect the 4 pm path to hit the TX/LA border, which is only about 65 miles linearly from Galveston. Personally, I think we are much more under the gun than New Orleans.

My family in Lake Charles already have hotel rooms booked near us in Katy.