TheSirDingle

Transit Plans for west Houston corridor

PDF: https://metronext.org/assets/pdfs/METRONext_West_Houston_Corridor_presentation_0917_v9_FINAL.pdf

Website:https://www.undergroundhall.com/

The new food hall, Underground hall, features 5 food vendors and a bar (1 or 2 idk). 

Hotline Burger: Established in 2019, it's a take on the smash burger way of cooking some patties, and damn does it look good. They started out as a tent with a portable griddle, and decided it was time for a full fledged food stall. Never had a smash burger before, but it looks like a pretty damn good burger. 

Wokker: An interesting combination of Asian and Texan cooking techniques, one could say Tex-Asian. Wokkin the streets of Houston since 2014, and started by a 2010 UH grad. This Fusion of Asian and Texas cooking looks like a match made in heaven (also it's also in the ballpark of comfort food 😋). Hoping to try this one soon. 

Don Juan Tacos and Ceviche: A more than just average taco stop, Don Juan provides a large variety of delicious tacos and Ceviche. I haven't seen much on these guys yet, but their food looks pretty good. 

Their instagram: https://picpanzee.com/donjuan_h

Treacherous Leches: A favorite returning from the long beloved conservatory, Treacherous Leches will make even the sweetest of teeth awestruck. If you want some sweets, and are looking for a low price, convenient store this is they place for you. 

Crisp: An italian favorite from the Heights, with a pizza sauce recipe reaching back generations. Crisp offers a selection of pizza, pasta, salads, and more (hopefully they have their wine and beer at this location too). Overall looks pretty good, and hopefully strays true to the original in the Heights. 

Pretty good lineup from the looks of it, i'm definitely going to try Wokker and their cowboy katsu. The hole that once was conservatory has now been filled 🥳. 

The market is probably gonna rebound by the middle of the year, or later at most. Russia and Saudi aren't going to last long (no matter how much reserves they have) if oil stays below $40. Considering oil is 16% of Russia's GDP (52% federal revenue, and 70% exports), and 42% of Saudi's GDP (87% budget revenue, 90% export earnings) I would find it crazy if it doesn't rebound above the median later this year ($70 maybe even $80+). So I wouldn't worry to much about it, ultimately it might even help Houston in the near future. 

Going onto COVID-19 and how it effected the market. Overall, it's a general over reaction by the market which usually happens when a supposed big name disease comes around. When the cure is found the market, and oil will rebound like nothing we've ever seen before. it's going to make the previous gains looks like a bust.  

Now with the Development side of things. I could see the the developers who were skeptical before shelve their developments because they're scared of low demand/bad returns (which really shouldn't be a problem in this area, and isn't). But, the developers who know what they're doing are going to keep on building. During this mini-recession land/construction prices are going to go down, which tends to make it cheaper for big name construction companies to build larger developments.This also means that developers that are afraid of not having immediate returns will shelve their products, while the developers who can wait for a return will keep building. This is a full on recession i'm talking about, this thing we're seeing rn isn't anywhere near a full on recession, just a bs reaction by the market to a disease that has a mortality rate between .1% to 1% (reaching more towards .1%), but I digress. 

I could see some developments getting put on the back-burner, but the majority of them are staying on pace to start. We have to remember the current boom we're having isn't due to oil, it's do to other parts of the Houston economy. Oil has been in the shiter for the past 2 years, but Houston has been building more and more, while people just keep moving in and the the job market just keeps growing. I could see a slight hiccup in the 1st maybe 2nd quarter, but things are going to stay on track. Hell, they might even get better than pre-corona by the end of the year. 

On 2/21/2020 at 1:18 PM, cspwal said:

Downtown detail:

 

 

Wonder if they're going to redevelop the downtown part into an almost central station type area. Would be cool since it's going to be the largest convergence of rapid transit in the area. 

@hindesky Guess this means the garage is gonna be starting soon, things are finally ramping up in that area. Hoping they can start on 4203 Fannin and Fiesta pretty soon, that laneway is going to be insane. 

Holy shit good stuff @BeerNut. So far it's looking to be a pretty good plan, that covers a good amount of Houston. Also I was looking at the total miles added to both the rail and BRT, and saw they didn't include the miles for the line to sugar land. So I went my way to google maps and measured the distance, finding it to be around 17.5 miles of commuter rail. Nearly doubling the proposed inner city rail line extensions. If they're able to get the partnership this would bring the total amount of rail to 49.5 miles. 

This On top of the new BRT (including Uptown BRT) would bring the total rapid transit mileage to around 129 miles. Increasing the total miles by 6.23 times the original system.  

Major lease transactions 2019-early 2020. 
http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/major_lease_transactions_in_downtown_houston_january_and_ye_2019.pdf

1 hour ago, Urbannizer said:

 

Mind sharing a link to the article?

I think it's this one, stuck behind a paywall sadly.

https://www.costar.com/article/1261208200 

1 hour ago, CREguy13 said:

Had a chance to view these renderings.  This building will have even more terraces than Texas Tower.  I think this forum will be very impressed by the redesign.  High quality project - hopefully it gets capitalized!

I'll give you BBQ of your choice if you post it rn. 

I can't believe how well this serves the inner parts of Houston. When this is all in place it's going to help Houston become many times more walkable. When it's completed you'll be able to go from a rockets game in Downtown, to shopping around uptown, then go get some food/also shop around in chinatown, and then catch a plane ride to any destination. This will also be a huge boost to tourism, and just overall livability in Houston. Personally I would have some rail/brt going from N Shepherd to Durham, and Greenway plaza so you can connect that area a little better. 

While I do see the issue with suburb commuters from outside the city, the main purpose of metro is to serve the city of Houston. Which, with this plan, it's doing fantastically. Having a strong rapid transit foothold in the west side and airports of Houston will ultimately benefit everybody, LRT or BRT. While it would be nice to have commuter rails in this plan, metro has to focus on expanding rapid transit inside the city of Houston first. We can't go the way of DART and neglect connecting major areas inside the city, it's just a waste of resources at that point. 

Hopefully the improved park and ride network will mitigate a good amount of the super commuters struggles. 

Lets be honest how much is actually gonna come from the community benefits agreements? 

Metronext BRT and LRT map overlap ft. HighSpeed rail 

https://imgur.com/gallery/3K4vtTU (for higher quality image)

THEY STARTED TEARING UP BAGBY!!!!! (Sorry no pics for now) 

53 minutes ago, Luminare said:

 

This was the only article I could find as well, but since it was published over 100 days ago, I didn't think it was what was being discussed.

same, I know foreclosure action has to deal with the lender taking legal action on a borrower who failed to make their mortgage payment. But for a company the size of Caydon, it doesn't seem like they would default on a loan. I'm still wondering where @Vy65 got his information from. Also there hasn't been any recent news stating that Caydon was being sued for a unpaid loan. I have a feeling this isn't really going to affect them at all though. 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/major-property-developer-caydon-caught-up-in-alleged-korean-investment-fraud-20190927-p52vn3.html
 

Article statements 

Quote

The chief executive of major property developer Caydon has claimed his signature was forged as part of an alleged $400 million fraud against a Korean investment house by another developer...

Documents filed in court by the Korean investors allege LBA Capital paid Joe Russo’s development company Caydon $30 million for 48 one-bedroom units in its Moonee Ponds apartment project in Melbourne. Caydon is one of the largest private developers in Melbourne, with large-scale apartment projects in Brunswick, Collingwood and St Kilda, and at the old Alphington paper mill...

Mr Russo insists Caydon was not paid for any units and no property was transacted with LBA Capital, alleging instead somebody in the company forged documents with his signature...

“I can guarantee to you they have not bought anything from us. They have fraudulently used my signature. They have not bought one apartment,” he said...Mr Russo said LBA Capital had conversations with Caydon staff about purchasing apartments. “The next thing I know I get a phone call and my signature was forged,” he said...

 

Y'all should read the full article, I just put the parts where it talked about Caydon. It honestly looks like LBA forged one of Russo's signatures, and tried to write it off as a sell of those units or something. It doesn't seem like it's going to effect Caydon at all, but hopefully they're cleared of this BS caused by LBA. 

Article: http://www.downtowndistrict.org/static/media/uploads/attachments/downtown_market_update_2019_q4.pdf
 

Residential:

Occupancy: 88.9% (down from 91%, might be the usual 4Q slowdown as stated by @Luminare)

Units: 6086 Completed 

873 Under construction (might not include fairfield residential) 

1179 planned 

- Also states that The Preston shapes takes inspiration from a ship's hull

Hospitality: 

Units: 8228 rooms

150 under construction 

400+ planned 

- Also Cambria hotel has received AAAs four diamond designation (only 6.3% of hotels receive this), putting the total AAA FD rooms over 5200

also lots of great info on the office, retail, innovation market, etc

30 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

4tth Quarter, 2019:

Very slow quarter.

 

A net  -54  units were absorbed in the CBD, while zero new units were delivered.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown lost about 25 people per month during the 4th quarter)  88% occupancy. 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 1,171 new units during the quarter, with 67 units net absorption (for approximately 94 additional residents).

 

Would the real occupancy be 90.1% since this is going off CBRE's 3rd quarter report? Anyway wonder what the equilibrium is, i'm suspecting 91%; maybe even a little higher. Should float around that during the spring/summer. 

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.
Article:https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/multifamily/houston-multifamily-market-to-normalize-with-deliveries-set-to-double-in-2020-102528

Looks like the multifamily market deliveries are going to normalize after a below average 2019. 

Multifamily deliveries/absorption:

Quote

After a slow 2019, multifamily developers in Houston are poised to deliver nearly 17,000 units in 2020, double the delivery volume of last year. For America’s fourth-largest city, the rapid rise in deliveries is a return to form, rather than a surge forward...

“We only had around 8,000 deliveries last year, that’s a very low number for the Houston [area],” Berkadia Senior Managing Director Ryan Epstein said. “We’re starting to get back to normal. Seventeen thousand units is not a big number on the base, but we’re coming off a very low number of deliveries."...

 

The 14,025 units recorded in 2019 is the highest number absorbed since 2014, excluding the temporary boost after Hurricane Harvey...

Jobs:

Quote

Houston’s continued job growth despite an oil downturn has kept the area’s multifamily market active. As of November, Houston added 85,500 jobs year over year, a 2.7% increase. It was the 25th consecutive month that Houston’s job growth exceeded the national rate, according to JLL research. The job growth has earned Houston its fourth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption for the first time since 2015, signaling a rebound from Houston’s slow months following the start of the oil downturn...

Occupancy/rent:

Quote

apartment demand significantly outpaced inventory expansion, elevating occupancy 110 basis points year-over-year to 94% by the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Berkadia research. At the same time, Greater Houston's effective rent advanced 0.5% to $1,113 per month by year-end...