Your Predictions for 2007

[aslowdodge]

I just found this forum a while ago. I live in california and own 4 homes beachside on the west end.

I bought them as investments ( at the peak of course) and rent them out as vacation homes. It seems like galveston was going gangbusters for a few years and kind of just stopped. It seems poised to do really well as a resort destination with the beaches, attractions such as the new waterpark & moody gardens, the strand, and a sort of revival in some neighborhoods most notably the historic district.

Anyone want to give a comment on where they think galveston is going in the next 4 or 5 years and why after 2 years it kind of just stopped?

All I can think of is that homes reached a cost saturation point for what people will spend or the hurricans really has everyone scared.

Will gambling ever come to Texas and if it does, how would galveston be affected?

[DJ V Lawrence]

Anyone want to give a comment on where they think galveston is going in the next 4 or 5 years and why after 2 years it kind of just stopped?

All I can think of is that homes reached a cost saturation point for what people will spend or the hurricans really has everyone scared.

Mad rizpekt and special shoutout to ji-ji-ji-ji-ji-ji G-Unit! (Galveston)

I think hurricane damage is a major reason why. Regardless of how much development happens on the island, it's still a giant sandbar. A Hurricane Katrina-size hurricane is inevitable for the Houston area, as it is for the entire Gulf Coast for the future. When that does happen, much of what you see in Galveston will either be underwater or destroyed if it isn't a high-rise. Until that happens, make sure you have REALLY good insurance, and a good evacuation plan (as in leaving at least 3 days before the storm.) Until that happens, the economy will still steadily rise there especially from tourism. Still a fun place to visit. I'd be surprised if it's still there in another 100 years though.

Will gambling ever come to Texas and if it does, how would galveston be affected?

The Texans turned down Vince Young and Reggie Bush to draft Mario Williams, and the Dallas Cowboys signed Terrell Owens. I thought gambling in Texas was already legal...

[MidtownCoog]

why after 2 years it kind of just stopped?

Taxation without representation?

We just got our tax bill from Galveston Co. It's not looking good. They have gone crazy.

They are trying to milk the Houston weekenders. Much to their chagrin, it may just backfire.

We are also on the West End.

[TheNiche]

I just found this forum a while ago. I live in california and own 4 homes beachside on the west end.

I bought them as investments ( at the peak of course) and rent them out as vacation homes. It seems like galveston was going gangbusters for a few years and kind of just stopped. It seems poised to do really well as a resort destination with the beaches, attractions such as the new waterpark & moody gardens, the strand, and a sort of revival in some neighborhoods most notably the historic district.

Anyone want to give a comment on where they think galveston is going in the next 4 or 5 years and why after 2 years it kind of just stopped?

All I can think of is that homes reached a cost saturation point for what people will spend or the hurricans really has everyone scared.

Will gambling ever come to Texas and if it does, how would galveston be affected?

There's still a lot of construction down there. I'm not clear why you think it stopped.

The single-family stuff, IMO, is probably pretty closely linked to all the new construction sapping the market for used homes as well as the Katrina/Rita effect. I know that right after Rita, a whole lot of homes and lots in San Leon came onto the market, and even though the volume of sales has been strong, the market still hasn't completely cleared out. That may not translate perfectly to Galveston, but it is what I know. I suppose that the Katrina/Rita effect had a second prong to it: insurance premiums. For folks that have to worry about money, the increase in insurance premiums probably came as an unwelcome surprise. It might've put more supply onto the market and turned off some margin of buyers all at once, putting a stop to appreciation.

They are trying to milk the Houston weekenders. Much to their chagrin, it may just backfire.

That wouldn't surprise me. But you're right. It will backfire. The demand curve for secondary residences is elastic.

[MidtownCoog]

The demand curve for secondary residences is elastic.

Since I know you love your stats, you'll appreciate the fact that our taxes are scheduled to go up 43% in one year.

Of course, we plan to protest in May.

If we have to endure 43% we plan to sell and holiday every year in Ibiza. At that rate we'll be making money ;=0

[J.A.S.O.N.]

Mad rizpekt and special shoutout to ji-ji-ji-ji-ji-ji G-Unit! (Galveston)

I think hurricane damage is a major reason why. Regardless of how much development happens on the island, it's still a giant sandbar. A Hurricane Katrina-size hurricane is inevitable for the Houston area, as it is for the entire Gulf Coast for the future. When that does happen, much of what you see in Galveston will either be underwater or destroyed if it isn't a high-rise. Until that happens, make sure you have REALLY good insurance, and a good evacuation plan (as in leaving at least 3 days before the storm.) Until that happens, the economy will still steadily rise there especially from tourism. Still a fun place to visit. I'd be surprised if it's still there in another 100 years though.

The Texans turned down Vince Young and Reggie Bush to draft Mario Williams, and the Dallas Cowboys signed Terrell Owens. I thought gambling in Texas was already legal...

I don't know man, my grandmother's house on 29th & M survived the hurricane of 1915, Carla, and Alicia. As a Galvestonian, I can't bring myself to think of the island as being completely destroyed one day, but that may just be wishful thinking.

[aslowdodge]

Mad rizpekt and special shoutout to ji-ji-ji-ji-ji-ji G-Unit! (Galveston)

I think hurricane damage is a major reason why. Regardless of how much development happens on the island, it's still a giant sandbar. A Hurricane Katrina-size hurricane is inevitable for the Houston area, as it is for the entire Gulf Coast for the future. When that does happen, much of what you see in Galveston will either be underwater or destroyed if it isn't a high-rise. Until that happens, make sure you have REALLY good insurance, and a good evacuation plan (as in leaving at least 3 days before the storm.) Until that happens, the economy will still steadily rise there especially from tourism. Still a fun place to visit. I'd be surprised if it's still there in another 100 years though.

The Texans turned down Vince Young and Reggie Bush to draft Mario Williams, and the Dallas Cowboys signed Terrell Owens. I thought gambling in Texas was already legal...

On football- gambling is when you have a chance to lose or win and the cowboys and texans didn't have a chance to win on either. As a 49er fan i knew owen was the best player when we got rid of him I also knew he was a cancer and sure to screw up any team he went to.

Mario who????

There's still a lot of construction down there. I'm not clear why you think it stopped.

The single-family stuff, IMO, is probably pretty closely linked to all the new construction sapping the market for used homes as well as the Katrina/Rita effect. I know that right after Rita, a whole lot of homes and lots in San Leon came onto the market, and even though the volume of sales has been strong, the market still hasn't completely cleared out. That may not translate perfectly to Galveston, but it is what I know. I suppose that the Katrina/Rita effect had a second prong to it: insurance premiums. For folks that have to worry about money, the increase in insurance premiums probably came as an unwelcome surprise. It might've put more supply onto the market and turned off some margin of buyers all at once, putting a stop to appreciation.

That wouldn't surprise me. But you're right. It will backfire. The demand curve for secondary residences is elastic.

My bad- I should have made it more clear. I know there is still lots of buillding, but prices have kind of stopped appreciating. At least on the west end. It seems none of my beach houses have gone up whatsoever in the last year.

There is still lots of builing in my area even though prices have remained flat or have slightly gone down. many times a project takes years from start to finnish. They may start during a boom and halfway through the market can change and at that point they are too far into the project to pull out

[TheNiche]

My bad- I should have made it more clear. I know there is still lots of buillding, but prices have kind of stopped appreciating. At least on the west end. It seems none of my beach houses have gone up whatsoever in the last year.

There is still lots of builing in my area even though prices have remained flat or have slightly gone down. many times a project takes years from start to finnish. They may start during a boom and halfway through the market can change and at that point they are too far into the project to pull out

If you don't mind my asking, about how much do you think that they're each worth? Are you in a price band within which you'd be competing with new construction?

[aslowdodge]

If you don't mind my asking, about how much do you think that they're each worth? Are you in a price band within which you'd be competing with new construction?

for like properties no.

I paid 385 & 395K for 2 houses that are beachfront 3/2 each. There are certainly other properties that are new construction for that price, but to be a detached house on the beach, i think it makes them unique as new construction for beachfront is usually higher. Other properties are usually condos if they are that close to the beach. I think the land is scarce enoigh on the beach that no one builds a home under 600k there.

[Parrothead]

Taxation without representation?

We just got our tax bill from Galveston Co. It's not looking good. They have gone crazy.

They are trying to milk the Houston weekenders. Much to their chagrin, it may just backfire.

We are also on the West End.

Boy aren't they! We have friends who are selling their place in Pirate's Beach because of this. It makes no sense to rent the place out if you aren't making a profit.

I'm not sure if it will backfire--perhaps initially it will, but look at Key West as an example. Sure, it's paradise now, but 30 years ago it wasn't like it is today, and real estate was cheap. Now that it's a huge tourist destination and people have come to appreciate the history there, taxes shot WAYYYY up. Almost all locals have moved off island and the place has been taken over by NE'ers.

You never know though.

[aslowdodge]

so are taxes going up because the properties have doubled in value in the last few years or are they going up just as a revenue stream for the city/county?

[J.A.S.O.N.]

so are taxes going up because the properties have doubled in value in the last few years or are they going up just as a revenue stream for the city/county?

A little of both

[banking214]

I think Galveston is going to continue the boom they are enjoying. I have started working with some investors with some "clout" around Austin. All the sudden they are looking for land in Galveston and Rock Port areas. Gambling anyone?

[TheNiche]

I think Galveston is going to continue the boom they are enjoying. I have started working with some investors with some "clout" around Austin. All the sudden they are looking for land in Galveston and Rock Port areas. Gambling anyone?

I think I mentioned in another thread that a friend of mine ran into Tilman Fertitta in the reception area of a title company office. Tilman was surrounded by his entourage, and they were discussing projects relating to gambling in Galveston in such a way as though it were not a matter of concern if gambling would be permitted in Galveston, but when.

[houstonfella]

Mad rizpekt and special shoutout to ji-ji-ji-ji-ji-ji G-Unit! (Galveston)

I think hurricane damage is a major reason why. Regardless of how much development happens on the island, it's still a giant sandbar. A Hurricane Katrina-size hurricane is inevitable for the Houston area, as it is for the entire Gulf Coast for the future. When that does happen, much of what you see in Galveston will either be underwater or destroyed if it isn't a high-rise. Until that happens, make sure you have REALLY good insurance, and a good evacuation plan (as in leaving at least 3 days before the storm.) Until that happens, the economy will still steadily rise there especially from tourism. Still a fun place to visit. I'd be surprised if it's still there in another 100 years though.

The Texans turned down Vince Young and Reggie Bush to draft Mario Williams, and the Dallas Cowboys signed Terrell Owens. I thought gambling in Texas was already legal...

I gotta let you know I laughed my ass off at your post. Thanks for making my day bright and sunny. DJ V you are so cool.

[islander]

I think that the Galveston market took a deep breath last year. You can ask any agent on the island and they will tell you that nothing was moving, especially on the west end, because they had experienced umimaginable activity in 2005. Also, they attribute it to the fact that people were still suffering a "hurricane hangover" and waiting in the wings to see if anything happened - of course, there were no storms. However, places like Evia and some of the condos had reports of their busiest sales months ever in November and October. Plus, realtors ar reporting that activity really picked up over the holiday. The market in Galveston really gets into high gear during Mardi Gras which is only a month away. Remember, the risk you take when living on the coast is the threat of storms - but the risk is worth the reward!

As far as Galveston long-term----remember, the island is less than an hour from the 4th largest city in the US and people always want a place to escape. Plus, there was an economic report last week that projected that Houston would be #1 in job growth in the US for 2007. As long as there is growth, there will always be people wanting a retreat from the chaos! But, if you're looking to make a quick buck....Galveston was probably your best bet in the country..

[aslowdodge]

I think that the Galveston market took a deep breath last year. You can ask any agent on the island and they will tell you that nothing was moving, especially on the west end, because they had experienced umimaginable activity in 2005. Also, they attribute it to the fact that people were still suffering a "hurricane hangover" and waiting in the wings to see if anything happened - of course, there were no storms. However, places like Evia and some of the condos had reports of their busiest sales months ever in November and October. Plus, realtors ar reporting that activity really picked up over the holiday. The market in Galveston really gets into high gear during Mardi Gras which is only a month away. Remember, the risk you take when living on the coast is the threat of storms - but the risk is worth the reward!

As far as Galveston long-term----remember, the island is less than an hour from the 4th largest city in the US and people always want a place to escape. Plus, there was an economic report last week that projected that Houston would be #1 in job growth in the US for 2007. As long as there is growth, there will always be people wanting a retreat from the chaos! But, if you're looking to make a quick buck....Galveston was probably your best bet in the country..

I just talked to a realtor today and they said there is excess inventory still on the west end. If you had to sell now it would prolly be less than what you paid a year ago. They said some investors were coming in and lowballing a lot as they felt the market was soft enough to get away with it. The realtor also indicated there was some foreclosure activity that also leads to the lowball mentality. Hopefully it will level out this spring then pick up in 08

I wholeheartly agree that proximity to Houston is a favorable thing for galveston

[DJ V Lawrence]

I gotta let you know I laughed my ass off at your post. Thanks for making my day bright and sunny. DJ V you are so cool.

U rock!

[DJ V Lawrence]

I just talked to a realtor today and they said there is excess inventory still on the west end. If you had to sell now it would prolly be less than what you paid a year ago. They said some investors were coming in and lowballing a lot as they felt the market was soft enough to get away with it. The realtor also indicated there was some foreclosure activity that also leads to the lowball mentality. Hopefully it will level out this spring then pick up in 08

I wholeheartly agree that proximity to Houston is a favorable thing for galveston

I'd also look into investing in high-rise living in G-Unit as to if the demand is stronger than beachfront or not. Prior to '04, I never heard of high-rise living on the island, but within the past couple years, luxury high-rise living has become available.

Here's a link to a previous thread on one of them:

http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...?showtopic=8263

If it is successful, expect a few more to be announced. May be a good investment opportunity.