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livincinco

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Everything posted by livincinco

  1. livincinco
    Right around the corner and didn't come to visit. I'll just drink the rest of my beer by myself.
  2. livincinco
    Sure, but given that METRO is a public entity, it's completely reasonable to ask questions about how they arrived at those numbers, especially given that METRO's past track record doesn't exactly inspire confidence. My primary questions to METRO would be as follows: - What is the month by month projected ridership on the line? - Is the projection of 17,600 for first year average weekday boardings still the official forecast? - If so, what are the specific reasons to expect a 400% increase over current ridership throughout 2014? (Assuming that part of this is expected additive ridership from East and Southeast lines) - If not, what are the reasons that caused the ridership numbers to be adjusted and what are the new targets? - Are the reasons for those adjustments specific to the North line or have they caused METRO to adjust ridership targets for other services? If so, what are those adjustments? - Have adjustments been made to METRO's forecasting methodology to account for these changes in future modelling? In my opinion, those are legitimate questions for a stakeholder to ask of any project that has significant capital investment. Given that this project used a significant amount of federal money, we're all stakeholders.
  3. livincinco
    Any new system sees high usage during the first couple of days and then settles down after the initial excitement wears off, especially when free rides are offered during that time. For reference, the 17,600 number was the first year ridership projection with full knowledge that the University and Uptown lines would not be completed. The 2030 projection, which I'm assuming includes expectation that those lines would be complete, is for 29,000 average weekday boardings.
  4. livincinco
    I hear you, but that's the way our democracy functions. Small groups have a lot of power to impact stuff that affects them locally regardless of whether the majority of the larger area wants it. What happened with the Richmond line is no different than the movement to stop the Ashby highrise. It's a well organized neighborhood that was able to make their voice heard. Regarding corruption, the reason that I'm so dismissive of conspiracies is that corruption and conspiracies are two completely different things. Conspiracies are generally situations where a logical explanation exists and a convoluted explanation is created to explain why the logical explanation can't possibly be right, generally because the logical explanation doesn't match the beliefs of the party inventing the conspiracy. In those cases, I tend to believe that Ockham's razor still holds true. The "streetcar" conspiracy is a perfect example of this (NOTE: This is not an invitation to further derail this thread. We have talked this to death and there are plenty of threads to discuss it further). There is a logical explanation of what happened that is supported by the business and historical record of the time. That doesn't support the belief system that certain elements would like to promote, so a conspiracy is created to explain why the logical explanation is wrong.
  5. livincinco
    The 17,400 number is METRO's ridership projection based on their internal modeling of transportation demand. That's the number that was submitted to the FTA (along with the 2030 projection) when requesting approval of federal funds. Honestly, from what I've seen, it's a pretty common approach for transit agencies. - Create an initial forecast with very aggressive numbers to obtain funding. - Modify those numbers down significantly and purge the initial forecast - Publicize how much better than actuals are then the revised forecast.
  6. livincinco
    METRO announced that first month ridership of 4,200 average weekday boardings exceeded first month projections. No mention of original forecast of 17,400 average weekday boardings. http://www.rtands.com/index.php/passenger/rapid-transit-light-rail/first-month-ridership-surpasses-projections-on-houston-metros-north-line.html?channel=281
  7. livincinco
    That's an incorrect comparison. Approval ratings of Congress are approval of Congress as an aggregate, not of individual Congressmen. There are a number of reasons that incumbents get re-elected, however this is clearly not the polarizing issue in that district that you would like to believe that it is or someone would have been able to defeat him on that issue. I'd be happy to pull the net worth of congressmen that have supported light rail and we can discuss equally unsubstantiated rumors of the "contributions" that they're receiving from the companies that were awarded extremely lucrative rail contracts. Corruption potentially exists anywhere large amounts of money change hands, even in things that you personally like.
  8. livincinco
    You mean as in not part of the "Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland" metropolitan area?
  9. livincinco
    I'm constantly amazed at the way that people want to ignore the impact of geography on the ways cities develop. The most urban cities in the US, San Francisco, New York, Boston, are all constrained why geography. A city like Houston has no geographic constraint, yet there seems to be a belief that it will density in the same way as those other cities.
  10. livincinco
    That's the point in the conversation that supporting detail is normally provided.
  11. livincinco
    I'm really not sure that much would have changed if Peter Brown had been elected because there's a huge difference between being an activist and being a mayor. As an activist, you can focus on a single issue, but as a mayor, you have to maintain that issue inside the context of the larger picture of managing the whole city. Not saying that to diminish the role of an activist, but there is an additional level of complexity that is involved in being mayor. I happen to be a fan of Mayor Parker and I think that she has accomplished a lot during her tenure. it's probably an oversimplification to think that Peter Brown would have accomplished significantly more than Parker. Would Brown have focused more on urbanization, possibly, but I'd argue that Parker has focused pretty heavily on it as well. It's always easy to pick a hypothetical wish list and say "my candidate would have done this", but hypothetical wish lists don't have to deal with the financial constraints (and the need to significantly reorganize city finances) that Parker did. They don't have to deal with whether improving drainage is a more pressing issue like Parker did. Clearly, this is all hypothetical, so no one can prove anyone else wrong, but looking backwards on her term as mayor, I have a hard time advocating that the city would have been better off with Peter Brown.
  12. livincinco
    Especially since they list no requirements regarding parking and specifically call out that all streets will not be identical.
  13. livincinco
    My prediction of the next several pages on this thread. 1. Unsubstantiated rumors that Occidental is building downtown 2. Irrational exuberance over the unsubstantiated rumors that Occidental is building a signature tower downtown. 3. Rumor that Occidental is building in The Woodlands/Energy Corridor. 4. Denial 5. Confirmation that Occidental is building a boring mid-rise in The Woodlands/Energy Corridor. 6. Crushing despair/extensive wringing of hands. 7. Immediate move to discussion of unsubstantiated rumors that Chevron is relocating corporate headquarters to downtown and is building a signature tower in addition to previously announced plans.
  14. livincinco
    Agreed. Attached is the actual policy for reference.http://www.houstontx.gov/planning/docs_pdfs/Exec_Order_Complete_Streets.pdf
  15. livincinco
    Doesn't matter, assuming Republicans keep control of the state government, there's no way that they let the gov train finish before the private HOU-DAL train. They want that train bad so that they can point out the differences between the TX high speed rail project and the CA project. If that project can launch on budget and be successful, it's a huge selling point to pitch to businesses about why they should come to Texas.
  16. livincinco
    That was my point earlier in the thread. The store is apparently profitable and faces no competition. Sears has no incentive to renovate it.
  17. livincinco
    You guys are 100% correct. Sears is completely healthy. Their business is so strong that they reported -7% top line growth for 2013 and -9.4% for Q4. Those are great numbers! Much better than the +8.2% that losers like Home Depot showed. No question that they're going to look to into immediately reinvesting those strong earnings into renovating the Midtown store. I expect them to start construction any day now, keep watching this thread for updates. BTW, their stock is a hot buy. I'd invest heavily in it. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-01-22/business/chi-sears-close-loop-flagship-20140121_1_sears-holdings-traditional-department-stores-sears-and-kmart http://www.tirebusiness.com/article/20140124/NEWS/140129916
  18. livincinco
    It's a lot bigger than a car.
  19. livincinco
    I think that the big question around stops is whether they intend on running two tracks in each direction or if they are running just one. If they are running only one for cost savings, then the stops would limit their ability to run non-stops between Dallas and Houston. If they're running two tracks, then the intermediate stops would have very little impact.
  20. livincinco
    They usually add several bands after the initial announcement including some pretty decent mid-tier bands. For example, Alabama Shakes and Social D were both added after the initial announcement last year. I'm really surprised that Outkast isn't in the lineup because they're playing something like 40 festivals this year. Wouldn't be surprised if they are one of the bands announced in the next couple of weeks.
  21. livincinco
    Let me clarify my point. If Target opened down the road, one of two things would happen. Sears would either close the property because it couldn't compete, or it would have to upgrade the property in order to compete. Given Sears current financial situation I agree that they probably wouldn't upgrade and would probably close which then opens the property for better use. I don't see that as a bad thing at all. The area gets better shopping options and the property is now available for renovation that won't happen as long as the status quo exists.
  22. livincinco
    What I find interesting about this discussion is that there seems to be an assumption that this is a community decision. Sears gets to make the decision about how they operate that location and whether they think that they need to do any renovations. This is a classic example of how lack of competition causes entropy. They aren't doing anything with the store because they have no competition. People shop there because it's close and they don't have a better alternative. Sears doesn't do anything because they are getting good revenue and they have no reason to invest in the property. If you really want Sears to either upgrade their store or vacate the premises, then someone should open a power center with a Target and a Kohl's 1/2 a mile a way and watch how quickly changes come to the Sears property.
  23. livincinco
    Yes, we certainly wouldn't want it to be hidden behind all the very tall buildings that surround it.
  24. livincinco
    The Feds showed a lot of lines on their map that made no sense whatsoever. One line needs to be built and it needs to be proven to be economically viable and then others will follow.
  25. livincinco
    Update on HOU-DAL from Houston Tomorrow http://www.houstontomorrow.org/livability/story/hou-dal-hsr-may-break-ground-in-two-years/ Full article - http://impactnews.com/houston-metro/the-woodlands/houston-to-dallas-high-speed-rail-could-break-ground-in-two-/
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