Houston population stats?

[West Timer]

That's the way the cracker crumbles. 

[H-Town Man]

15 hours ago, BeerNut said:

Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. 

I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar.

[Montrose1100]

7 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. 

I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar.

This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification).

[H-Town Man]

16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said:

This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification).

Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.)

I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned.

Edited August 24, 2021 by H-Town Man

[Montrose1100]

1 hour ago, H-Town Man said:

Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.)

I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned.

I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming.

[H-Town Man]

16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said:

I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming.

Yes... and I've been pointing out why I think our situation is different than St. Louis and Detroit, and why what happened to them probably won't happen to us.

 

[hindesky]

 

COH Planning Department Census Data Viewer Maps

https://mycity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=99770152b54b47518e949192d7f1dfe8

[Houston19514]

Census Bureau released July 1, 2022 county population estimates today. Using these numbers, we can come up with their Metro population estimates:

• July 1, 2020:  7,140,749
• July 1, 2021:  7,215,837
• July 1, 2022:  7,340,118  Added 199,369 people in two years.

Someone on this board recently told us our days of adding more people per year were coming to an end.  So far, not so much.

Houston added 75,088 from '20 to '21  and 124,281 from '21 to '22.

Austin added  58,136 and 62,985.   Seems the trend may have peaked.

 

[79ta]

What do you guys think about these estimates? What steps will each city and Texas in general have to take for this level of population to work?

Quote

The future of America may lie in Texas. Based on current migration trends, moveBuddha predicts that by 2100, Dallas, Houston, and Austin will replace NYC, LA, and Chicago as the country’s most populous cities...

America’s three biggest cities by 2100 will be #1 Dallas, #2 Houston, and #3 Austin. Fast-growing San Antonio also ranks at #11.

2100 Population estimate

• Dallas-Fort Worth, TX    1    33.91M
• Houston, TX    2    31.38M
• Austin, TX    3    22.29M
• Phoenix AZ    4    22.27M
• New York City, NY    5    20.81M

https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visualizing-us-cities-2100/

 

Quote

The analysis published by moveBuddha this week projects Houston to be the second-most populous U.S. city by the year 2100, amassing an estimated population of more than 31 million residents if the city's current growth rate holds fast over the next 77 years. It also estimates that the city will be "growing to the size of Tokyo." The greater Tokyo metro is estimated to boast a population of 37.2 million, according to a World Population Review projection...

In any case, heat or no heat, Houston is certainly growing at a high clip these days. In May the city was ranked as having the second-fastest growing metro area in the country according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The Bayou City is currently the fourth-largest city in the U.S. by population with 2.3 million residents, lagging behind only New York (8.3 million), Los Angeles (3.8 million) and Chicago (2.7 million).

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/houston-population-growth-2100-18177002.php

 

 

[editor]

On 7/2/2023 at 10:28 AM, 79ta said:

What do you guys think about these estimates? What steps will each city and Texas in general have to take for this level of population to work?

https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visualizing-us-cities-2100/

 

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/houston-population-growth-2100-18177002.php

 

 

Not a reputable source, and too far out for any kind of certainty. 
 

Look at how much turmoil there has been in the last 20 years. These people are trying to say they know what's going to happen over the next 80? Not a chance. 

[Houston19514]

US Census Bureau recently released revised delineations of metropolitan areas and combined statistical areas.

Houston metro area now includes San Jacinto County (2020 population: 27,402). Component counties: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend,
Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San
Jacinto, Waller.

No changes were made to the Houston combined statistical area (other than the addition of San Jacinto County).

[Houston19514]

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Area 2022 population estimate was 7,340,118. With the addition of San Jacinto County, the new Metro 2022 population is 7,368,977. 

Houston-The Woodlands Combined Statistical Area 2022 population estimate was 7,533,096. With the new addition of San Jacinto County, the new 2022 population is 7,561,955. 

And they have renamed the areas.  Metro area is now officially designated as the Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands Metropolitan Area.  And the Combined area is now the Houston-Pasadena Combined Statistical Area. I don't know what led to the name-changes.

[BEES?!]

That’s interesting. I’d be curious to know why they changed it, too.

[mkultra25]

It's not uncommon for the larger Metro Areas to occasionally have name changes, particularly when they change the composition of the Metro Area. In the past few years Dallas changed from Dallas-Plano-Irving to Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

[Houston19514]

51 minutes ago, mkultra25 said:

It's not uncommon for the larger Metro Areas to occasionally have name changes, particularly when they change the composition of the Metro Area. In the past few years Dallas changed from Dallas-Plano-Irving to Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition.

They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.)  FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth.

[mattyt36]

17 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition.

They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.)  FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth.

See https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwifzvmMkq-AAxUslGoFHZayCdMQFnoECA0QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww2.census.gov%2Fgeo%2Fpdfs%2Freference%2FGARM%2FCh13GARM.pdf&usg=AOvVaw24jMAK5TEr852RoZsWqjHd&cshid=1690469745964012&opi=89978449

There are rules . . . BUT the underlined portion makes it seem entirely subjective.  Neither The Woodlands nor Pasadena have a population at least one-third of Houston's.  The Woodlands is an obvious commuting center and an anchor point for the northern counties of the MSA.  Maybe one can argue that Pasadena is from the east as well, although I'd think the numbers are much smaller--I have no handle for how many refinery jobs, for example, or in Pasadena versus Deer Park versus any of the other eastern cities.  Seems like Baytown would be better than Pasadena as having its own regional draws, and as I recall, Baytown used to be part of the MSA definition along with Galveston.  Pasadena and The Woodlands just must be way more vocal.  (Does HGAC weigh in at all?)

Central Cities and MA Titles

The OMB designates the largest city in each MSA or CMSA as a central city,
and additional cities qualify for this designation if specified requirements are
met concerning population size and commuting patterns. The central cities
of a NECMA are those cities in the NECMA that qualify as central cities of an
MSA or a CMSA.

The title of each MSA consists of the names of up to three of its central
cities and the name of each State into which the MSA extends. However, a
central city is not included in an MSA title unless it has at least one-third the
population of the area’s largest city or local opinion supports its inclusion.
Typically, titles of PMSAs also are based on central city names, but in certain
cases consist of county names. Generally, titles of CMSAs are based
on the titles of their component PMSAs, although CMSA titles may include
suitable regional designations. NECMA titles are derived from the names
of central cities. As is the case for MSAs, a CMSA, PMSA, or NECMA title
always includes the names of all States into which the area extends.

On 8/24/2021 at 11:06 AM, H-Town Man said:

I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat 

On 8/23/2021 at 4:10 PM, H-Town Man said:

especially now that most local political leadership has switched to Democrat.  

 

Say it after me . . . DEMOCRATIC . . . you can do it!  "Democrat" is a noun, not an adjective.  I shall never understand any explanation for its incessant use other than the obvious insidious one.

What's in an adjective? 'Democrat Party' label on the rise | AP News

[mkultra25]

On 7/26/2023 at 4:48 PM, Houston19514 said:

Correct, it is not uncommon, especially when there is a change of composition, but this change pretty clearly has nothing to do with the very minor change in our composition.

They did not change the north Texas metroplex name as you stated. Dallas-Plano-Irving is the name of a metropolitan division, a subset of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area. Neither has changed in some time. (The western side of the metroplex is the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metropolitan division.)  FWIW, their combined area is named Dallas-Fort Worth.

You're right - I was going by how the Bureau of Labor Statistics displays metropolitan area definitions. In 2022, and recent years, they only list the MSA of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington:

May 2022 Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Definitions

However, if you look at the historical data for earlier years, for example 2015, the data field used to capture MSA names in the downloadable files they provide is AREA_NAME, but in addition to MSA names, they will occasionally populate it with a metropolitan division name. Such is the case with the two Dallas-area metropolitan divisions you mention. I had assumed it was a name change when in reality they just started providing data for the MSA instead of the two separate divisions.

[Houston19514]

Census Bureau released July 1, 2023 metro area population estimates today:

• July 1, 2020:  7,168,723
• July 1, 2021:  7,245,134 (1.1%)
• July 1, 2022:  7,370,464 (1.7%)
• July 1, 2023: 7,510,253 (1.9% in 1 year; 4.8% in 3 years)

Someone on this board last year told us Houston's days of adding more people per year than Austin were coming to an end.  There is still no evidence that day is in sight.

Houston metro growth per year:

• '20-'21: 76,411
• '21-'22: 125,330
• '22-'23; 139,789

Austin metro growth per year:

• '20-'21:  58,499
• '21-'22:  64,536
• '22-'23:  50,105

Austin Metro estimates:

• July 1, 2020:  2,300,135
• July 1, 2021:  2,358,634 (2.5%)
• July 1, 2022:  2,424,170 (2.7%)
• July 1, 2023:  2,473,275 (2.1% in 1 year; 7.5% in 3 years)

DFW metro estimates:

• July 1, 2020: 7,666,418
• July 1, 2021:  7,774,647 (1.4%)
• July 1, 2022:  7,947,439 (2.2%)
• July 1, 2023:  8,100,037 (1.9% in 1 year; 5.7% in 3 years)