New Houston Census Estimates: July 2007

[houstonfella]

I liked Houston in 1972 with its 1.2 million folks. Now we have another million. Yikes. Fast growth isn't all it's cracked up to be. Let Atlanta and Dallas suffer through that like we did in the 70s and 80s. Houston is big enough. Do we really need to be bigger?

[TheNiche]

Houston is big enough. Do we really need to be bigger?

Yes, of course! What a ridiculous question. Stagnation isn't anything to envy.

[CDeb]

Houston is big enough. Do we really need to be bigger?

I know of several towns that say the same thing.

Then they wonder, sometimes in the next breath, why all their young people are leaving to work somewhere else.

[tierwestah]

Yes, of course! What a ridiculous question. Stagnation isn't anything to envy.

This is coming from YOU? The same person who doesn't believe in progress? The same person who always shuns at new development downtown and lightrail? Funny Mr. Kettle.

[memebag]

I know of several towns that say the same thing.

Then they wonder, sometimes in the next breath, why all their young people are leaving to work somewhere else.

At least they won't be on my lawn then.

[CDeb]

At least they won't be on my lawn then.

But you may have trouble finding someone to mow it (unless you're like me and DIY).

[memebag]

But you may have trouble finding someone to mow it (unless you're like me and DIY).

I'm prepared for that. I'm growing my own yard maintenance person.

[CDeb]

I'm prepared for that. I'm growing my own yard maintenance person.

Me too, but it'll be at least a decade until she's ready.

[ricco67]

I'm prepared for that. I'm growing my own yard maintenance person.

Translation: Kids.

Kids: The Ultimate remote control.

To kiddo: "Baby, get me a beer."

Kiddo: "'k dad."

To Kiddo: "Can you pick up the magazine over there and bring it to me?"

Kiddo: "Okay."

<Insert other instructions>

Kiddo: "Dad, why don't you get up and get your own paper?"

To kiddo: "We made you to do our chores, didn't you know that?"

Kiddo: "Remember. You're going to a retirement home someday and I might not visit."

ah...I miss the kiddo.

[musicman]

LOl makes name selection a lot easier too

John Deere <last name here>

Jane Deere <last name here>

[houstonmacbro]

I'm prepared for that. I'm growing my own yard maintenance person.

I got rid of my yard people and do it myself now. Save $50 a month ... sux that I sweat and have grass in my hair and on my clothes, but hey ...

That $50 is gas money now.

[WesternGulf]

So are we the 5th largest metro now? And could we reach 6 million by the 2010 census?

I do not know. I can still name eight metros that are larger than Houston's.

[Houston19514]

I do not know. I can still name eight metros that are larger than Houston's.

No you can't. You are probably confusing "metros" with "combined areas".

But I'm also not sure where this idea that we are 5th largest came from . As of the 2007 estimates, the Houston metro is the 6th largest in the US.

1. NYC

2. LA

3. Chicago

4. DFW

5. Philadelphia

6. Houston

We are almost certain to be 5th largest following the 2010 census, given our growth and Philly's lack of growth.

[lockmat]

My story lands here...hopefully it's related.

A new coworker of mine is still looking for a house to rent in the surrounding Woodlands area. However, she put in a application on two earlier this week and both were sold before it could be finalized. So she looked at about six houses the past two nights and all of them were snagged the same day or the next. She's putting in applications as fast as she can just so she has a place to stay. How crazy is that?

[JasonDFW]

But I'm also not sure where this idea that we are 5th largest came from . As of the 2007 estimates, the Houston metro is the 6th largest in the US.

1. NYC

2. LA

3. Chicago

4. DFW

5. Philadelphia

6. Houston

We are almost certain to be 5th largest following the 2010 census, given our growth and Philly's lack of growth.

There was an estimate released this week by "Business First" that showed Houston was just a few thousand away from Philly as of this week and I would presume days away from passing them up. This was their estimate for this week:

[TheNiche]

There was an estimate released this week by "Business First" that showed Houston was just a few thousand away from Philly as of this week and I would presume days away from passing them up.

If I'm not mistaken, the Census Bureau tacked on another county or two to Philly's metro area last year, and it had pushed back Houston's rise in the charts by about nine months. Bastards.

I think that Atlanta, Miami, and Philly are out of the running for the time being. As far as this data set is concerned, it's a showdown for primacy IMO between Houston, Dallas, and D.C.

Of course, I've always thought that the geographic circumstances and commuting patterns of Washington/Baltimore, San Francisco/San Jose, Los Angeles/Riverside, and Dallas/FW are all way too similar to justify combining one the one pair of cities as a metro area and dividing up all of the others. If the Census Bureau was more consistent with the application of its definitions, then we'd either have Houston and Dallas both bumped out of the top five or we'd have Houston as #4 and Dallas not even on the list.

[tamtagon]

A major hurricane hitting Houston would be an interesting scenario.

First, it absolutely has to be recognized that our geography is not as precarious as New Orleans. No part of our region is below sea level. Texas City has floodgates and levies that might possibly be overwhelmed during the storm, but they can then just be re-opened after the storm to allow waters to drain by the force of gravity. Likewise, there really isn't any part of our geography that funnels water in the same way as the area around Bay Saint Louis, LA, limiting how high storm surge can get.

There would be a lot of houses damaged by flood water, but only for a few hours rather than days. Quite a few more people could return pretty quickly and make due in one way or another than were able to in the aftermath of Katrina, and I think that Rita illustrates that. Those homes and businesses that were totally wiped out typically will have insurance policies on them, and when that money kicks in, it pays for a new house or a heck of a lot of repairs. Contractors' wages go sky high for the duration of a year, drawing in more workers to help with the clean-up. People and jobs displaced from one part of our region move into another part rather than to different regions altogether.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government is falling all over itself not to make the same mistakes as were made with Katrina, pumping plenty of money into our economy, probably to the point of overkill. And our State government is handling it the way that Louisiana should have, inviting the Feds in early on, our congressmen squeezing them for every penny as payback for the goodwill that we'd earned in 2005.

I'd certainly anticipate that once all the vacant housing units get absorbed, insurance monies are pumped into our region, and Federal intervention is implemented, we'll enter a period of residential overbuilding (only on a scale much larger than happened post-Katrina).

The most important thing to contemplate, though, is that every month, millions of Houston area households make a significant outlay to insure their homes. That is a sacrifice of present economic activity to ensure that future economic activity on a huge scale could be undertaken upon triggering the right conditions. All at once, following the hurricane, the outlays stop and we get a massive in-flow of cash. A lot of people would even likely get mortgage holidays, thereby slashing the rate of foreclosures.

The hurricane could in fact incite an economic boom in our region. It wouldn't last more than a year or so at most, and thereafter we'd have to deal with higher insurance rates for a long time as well as overbuilt housing, but if timed right, it could at least create all kinds of beautiful havoc with the 2010 Census.

hum

[TheNiche]

hum

Hit and miss, eh.

I didn't count on there being a total top-down financial crisis in progress during that same week.

[Houston19514]

If I'm not mistaken, the Census Bureau tacked on another county or two to Philly's metro area last year, and it had pushed back Houston's rise in the charts by about nine months. Bastards.

I think that Atlanta, Miami, and Philly are out of the running for the time being. As far as this data set is concerned, it's a showdown for primacy IMO between Houston, Dallas, and D.C.

Of course, I've always thought that the geographic circumstances and commuting patterns of Washington/Baltimore, San Francisco/San Jose, Los Angeles/Riverside, and Dallas/FW are all way too similar to justify combining one the one pair of cities as a metro area and dividing up all of the others. If the Census Bureau was more consistent with the application of its definitions, then we'd either have Houston and Dallas both bumped out of the top five or we'd have Houston as #4 and Dallas not even on the list.

You are probably thinking of the addition of the Reading, PA MSA to Philly's Combined Statistical Area. That has no impact on the Metro area numbers being discussed here. The "Business First" numbers posted above appear to be pretty much in line with what one would expect, projecting forward from the 2007 estimates released by the Census Bureau.

I see no reason for anyone to think the Census Bureau does not apply its definitions with complete consistency. I think your argument is really with their definitions, and I pretty much agree that they have botched the definitions. But I guess they have their reasons and it works to Houston's advantage, so who am I to complain? ;-)