New Houston Census Estimates: July 2007

[TheNiche]

What is confusing about that?

Weren't they already ahead of Philly?

[banking214]

What is confusing about that?

I did not realize they had moved ahead of Philadelphia. I went to re-read the article and cleared up my misunderstanding.

[JasonDFW]

It's funny how this information was released a week ago (see the first post) and it takes a week for somebody to do the 4th grade math to put out the metro numbers... then today there are thousands of articles across the nation with the news all simultaneously. Never understood why the data wasn't all released at the same time.

Jason

[Trae]

This adding and subtracting is like second grade math. Funny about those articles, too. They sprang up all around today.

[Willy1]

Here is a link to the story

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/26/real_estat...dex.htm?cnn=yes

[TheNiche]

Here is a link to the story

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/26/real_estat...dex.htm?cnn=yes

Duplicate thread. We're already discussing this elsewhere. Moderators, please merge.

[TxDave]

As someone who studies demographic trends for a living, I think the Houston numbers were artificially low this year - accounting for the back lash from the prior years' Katrina gains. Many of the Katrina evacuees who enhanced Houston's population last year returned home to Louisiana. The exceptional net return of Katrina evacuees last year detracted from the total growth in Houston. Given the strength of the energy industry, Houston should experience dramatic growth

[Subdude]

Duplicate thread. We're already discussing this elsewhere. Moderators, please merge.

Done.

[VicMan]

As someone who studies demographic trends for a living, I think the Houston numbers were artificially low this year - accounting for the back lash from the prior years' Katrina gains. Many of the Katrina evacuees who enhanced Houston's population last year returned home to Louisiana. The exceptional net return of Katrina evacuees last year detracted from the total growth in Houston. Given the strength of the energy industry, Houston should experience dramatic growth

I wonder how many of the Katrina evacuees returned and how many are staying...

[wxman]

I wonder how many of the Katrina evacuees returned and how many are staying...

Weren't there 150,000 in total right after Katrina? Then Rita came through a month later and drove many of them away again. N.O. has experienced a slow return rate. Then you also have to take into account that they keep killing each other. A year after the hurricanes, that's all you heard..."another shooting tonight between N.O. evacuees..."

[tierwestah]

I thought Houston was supposed to be on the virge of passing the Philadelphia metro? As of the latest 2007 estimates, it still looks like Houston has a ways to go and Philadelphia metro is still growing at a healthy rate.

MSA census estimates 2007

Houston 5.7 million

Philadelphia 6.3 million

DFW 6.4 million

Atlanta 5.2 million CSA 5.6 million

It seems we need to be more worried about Atlanta possibly surpassing us rather than thinking we'll pass Philly anytime soon.

[Trae]

You gave out Philly's, DFW's, and Atlanta's CSA. Houston passed up Philly last year.

[tierwestah]

You gave out Philly's, DFW's, and Atlanta's CSA. Houston passed up Philly last year.

We already passed up Philly? What's Philly MSA at now?

[Trae]

Forget I said that. I was thinking about Dallas. Houston won't pass Philly up until this year's numbers are accounted for (so you'll now March '09).

[houstonmacbro]

It actually looks like Houston should overtake Philly pretty easily in the 2009 estimates and will probably break 6 million in time for the 2010 census. To get an accurate picture of Houston's current growth, you have to look at 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 growth cumulatively, because of the Katrina refugees inflating the 2005-2006 growth and reducing the the 2006-2007 growth. Those estimates may even be conservative... if anything Houston's growth has probably accelerated. 94,000 new jobs last year; that should like lead to at a population growth more like 200,000.

So you're saying Houston will add an additional 2 million people in 2 years?

[TheNiche]

You people need to learn Census geography.

Let this wall map be your guide.

[Trae]

The map:

[Houston19514]

So you're saying Houston will add an additional 2 million people in 2 years?

What? Where'd you get that idea?

[houstonmacbro]

What? Where'd you get that idea?

Some folks are predicting 10m people in Houston by 2010.

[Trae]

How would that happen?

[houstonmacbro]

How would that happen?

Sorry, I meant 6m as questioned by someone else on this very thread. Just scroll up ... I am still wondering how we are gonna add 2m people in 2 years.

[20thStDad]

How far have we gotten in documenting the previously undocumented? There has to be a pretty good number of illegals out there still, and it's possible they could be counted (depending on legislation) by 2010. That could make for a large jump, but I doubt a million.

[TheNiche]

How far have we gotten in documenting the previously undocumented? There has to be a pretty good number of illegals out there still, and it's possible they could be counted (depending on legislation) by 2010. That could make for a large jump, but I doubt a million.

The Census bureau does count illegal aliens (to the best of their ability).

[Houston19514]

Sorry, I meant 6m as questioned by someone else on this very thread. Just scroll up ... I am still wondering how we are gonna add 2m people in 2 years.

Again. What are you talking about? Who has predicted that Houston will add 2 m people in 2 years?

The Houston MSA only has to grow by about 340,000 people in 3 years to hit the predicted 6 million.

[TheNiche]

Again. What are you talking about? Who has predicted that Houston will add 2 m people in 2 years?

The Houston MSA only has to grow by about 340,000 people in 3 years to hit the predicted 6 million.

It isn't impossible. All it requires is continued strong population growth (bearing in mind that the Katrina effect is now over), an upward revision, and perhaps the addition of another county to the MSA. If Austin and especially San Jacinto counties make sense, surely some combination of Walker, Matagorta, Wharton, Colorado, Washington, and Grimes can be added. Together, they comprise 220,126 people, so we probably don't need all of them.

[Houston19514]

It isn't impossible. All it requires is continued strong population growth (bearing in mind that the Katrina effect is now over), an upward revision, and perhaps the addition of another county to the MSA. If Austin and especially San Jacinto counties make sense, surely some combination of Walker, Matagorta, Wharton, Colorado, Washington, and Grimes can be added. Together, they comprise 220,126 people, so we probably don't need all of them.

Not impossible at all. In fact, I think it's quite likely that Houston will exceed 6,000,000 in the 2010 census, even without upward revisions or adding additional counties.

2007 population estimate was 5,660,245, so we are only 339,755 short of 6,000,000. 2006-2007 growth was 120,296, even with the reverse Katrina effect going on. Given the recent job growth, I would expect Houston's population growth has, if anything, accelerated, plus the reverse Katrina effect is probably over (or at least insignificant at this point). With all that, I think we can expect the 2007-2008 growth to be significantly greater than 120,296. I would be very surprised if it's less than 150,000.

[Triton]

Not impossible at all. In fact, I think it's quite likely that Houston will exceed 6,000,000 in the 2010 census, even without upward revisions or adding additional counties.

2007 population estimate was 5,660,245, so we are only 339,755 short of 6,000,000. 2006-2007 growth was 120,296, even with the reverse Katrina effect going on. Given the recent job growth, I would expect Houston's population growth has, if anything, accelerated, plus the reverse Katrina effect is probably over (or at least insignificant at this point). With all that, I think we can expect the 2007-2008 growth to be significantly greater than 120,296. I would be very surprised if it's less than 150,000.

I think there's a massive equation that we are not factoring in and it's nature. We fail to equate hurricanes and other natural incidents that can impact the flow of people into Houston. If we have any hurricane, whether it be big or small, can have a tremendous affect on how many people come here.

[TxDave]

Some folks are predicting 10m people in Houston by 2010.

That would require the population to essentially double in two years

more realistically the Houston population will be around 6 million in 2010

[ricco67]

I think there's a massive equation that we are not factoring in and it's nature. We fail to equate hurricanes and other natural incidents that can impact the flow of people into Houston. If we have any hurricane, whether it be big or small, can have a tremendous affect on how many people come here.

Another reason that would be bringing people here is the fact that we aren't taxing them to death like they are in California and the East coast. Plus there is my favorite quote, "if I lose my job, its easier to live under a bridge in Houston than Detroit."

As far as losing people because of a hurricane are generally going to be the newcommers that have come here within the last few years. The "Rita Survivors" have learned their lesson from the last exodus and will be more savvy when it comes to flood alerts and such.

[TheNiche]

I think there's a massive equation that we are not factoring in and it's nature. We fail to equate hurricanes and other natural incidents that can impact the flow of people into Houston. If we have any hurricane, whether it be big or small, can have a tremendous affect on how many people come here.

A major hurricane hitting Houston would be an interesting scenario.

First, it absolutely has to be recognized that our geography is not as precarious as New Orleans. No part of our region is below sea level. Texas City has floodgates and levies that might possibly be overwhelmed during the storm, but they can then just be re-opened after the storm to allow waters to drain by the force of gravity. Likewise, there really isn't any part of our geography that funnels water in the same way as the area around Bay Saint Louis, LA, limiting how high storm surge can get.

There would be a lot of houses damaged by flood water, but only for a few hours rather than days. Quite a few more people could return pretty quickly and make due in one way or another than were able to in the aftermath of Katrina, and I think that Rita illustrates that. Those homes and businesses that were totally wiped out typically will have insurance policies on them, and when that money kicks in, it pays for a new house or a heck of a lot of repairs. Contractors' wages go sky high for the duration of a year, drawing in more workers to help with the clean-up. People and jobs displaced from one part of our region move into another part rather than to different regions altogether.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government is falling all over itself not to make the same mistakes as were made with Katrina, pumping plenty of money into our economy, probably to the point of overkill. And our State government is handling it the way that Louisiana should have, inviting the Feds in early on, our congressmen squeezing them for every penny as payback for the goodwill that we'd earned in 2005.

I'd certainly anticipate that once all the vacant housing units get absorbed, insurance monies are pumped into our region, and Federal intervention is implemented, we'll enter a period of residential overbuilding (only on a scale much larger than happened post-Katrina).

The most important thing to contemplate, though, is that every month, millions of Houston area households make a significant outlay to insure their homes. That is a sacrifice of present economic activity to ensure that future economic activity on a huge scale could be undertaken upon triggering the right conditions. All at once, following the hurricane, the outlays stop and we get a massive in-flow of cash. A lot of people would even likely get mortgage holidays, thereby slashing the rate of foreclosures.

The hurricane could in fact incite an economic boom in our region. It wouldn't last more than a year or so at most, and thereafter we'd have to deal with higher insurance rates for a long time as well as overbuilt housing, but if timed right, it could at least create all kinds of beautiful havoc with the 2010 Census.