Subdude Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Be glad today is a holiday in America. Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. RecessionBy MARK LANDLER and HEATHER TIMMONSPublished: January 21, 2008FRANKFURT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 And I am hearing bonds aren't really safe this time around either. Was thinking of moving my 457 funds to bonds, but it might be too late.Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Sounds like the world's markets are as unimpressed with Bush's tax rebate as we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Looks like it's going to be a rough week for the markets. Get ready and have your seasick pills ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted January 21, 2008 Author Share Posted January 21, 2008 There's a whiff of panic in the air that is probably unwarranted. European indices are getting banged because of fears that the US (expected) recession will drag down growth in Europe, while banks there have a lot of CDOs left to write off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Buy cigarettes and booze...both the product and the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Buy cigarettes and booze...both the product and the stock.Well, I am not much of a drinker and I don't smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricco67 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 I'm a buy and hold person myself. I'm just glad I sold my Oracle stock back in 2000, now I'm just bummed that I didn't buy gold a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 I'm a buy and hold person myself. I'm just glad I sold my Oracle stock back in 2000, now I'm just bummed that I didn't buy gold a few years ago.I think buy and hold used to be a good strategy, but it is hard to hold onto stuff when you see it's value decreasing daily. I had a hunch about 4 months ago to diversify into bonds, but I only put 25% in the bond fund.... now I am kicking myself for not reallocating it to 50% bond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanS Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Watching CNBC this morning... Even though are markets were closed... the DJIA "futures" (as in tomorrow) was showing anywhere from 300 to 400 point drop... dropping the Dow into the mid 11,000 range (yikes!!!)... NASDAQ, S&P, all showing down - way down. A lot of what happened in the foreign markets today, can be traced to a post I made a couple of days ago, regarding the bond market and bond insurers - and their inability to cover loses that they are supposed to have guaranteed.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home"The risk of European companies defaulting soared to a record on concern credit ratings cuts at bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc. may trigger forced asset sales and worsen credit market turmoil."Ambac lost its AAA rating on Jan 18th... and appears to be headed down for the count... http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx4553004.html...and here is the lawsuit...http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...ire/0350855.htmAs a result of losing their rating, the bonds they insured can take hits on their ratings. And if you own a bond mutual fund that requires AAA bonds, and you had them before the Ambac rating downgrade, your mutual fund has to sell off those now-downgraded bonds (only "quality" bonds can be held). So if you have a massive sell off, look for prices to go down, down, down... (more supply, less demand, value/prices go down)There is $2.4 trillion of debt that is insured by bond insurers. MBIA and Ambac, the number 1 and 2 bond insurers, have seen their stock price plunge by huge amounts (hence, the shareholder lawsuits)...MBIA is next...THE EQUIVALENT OF A MASSIVE METEOR strike hit the bond-insurer industry last week, which rendered even the leading concern, MBIA, a smoking crater.http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071...glenews_barronsThis is gonna get bad, real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanS Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Well, I am not much of a drinker and I don't smoke.Neither am I.... but I am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Buy highly-leveraged dollars. You'll do well over the next several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 A lot of what happened in the foreign markets today, can be traced to a post I made a couple of days ago...Your posts have that much impact on the world markets? Daaaayum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricco67 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 You know, several years ago, I was listening to my client in the next room talking about shifting a few million from an american account to several Swiss, German, and French accounts and started talking about he was doing this on a HUNCH, I wished I would have paid more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Mine certainly are not millions, but I don't want to lose the thousands I do have. Since November, I've already seen a big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Mine certainly are not millions, but I don't want to lose the thousands I do have. Since November, I've already seen a big drop.If you're that squeamish, Macbro, switch future contriubtion to the fixed account or money market fund if you have one. I would leave existing equity balances where they are, or you risk wiping out future gains because you won't be invested in the market the week, or the couple of days, that things go well. Don't do more than 20% in bonds and ideally in a total bond market index-a mix of long, mid and short-- right now. The problem is most 457s and 403bs have crap for money fund options. I recommend shopping around for the best money market mutual fund yield you can find, and putting as much as you can there, outside of your qualified plan. I know everyone has 'advice', but if it makes you feel better, I've worked in the biz more than 15 years. Not in sales; rather product mgmt. Everything from retail mutual funds to qualified plans to life insurance and annuities. I believe that a straightforward savings and investment approach is best, especially if you don't have a super-high income or net worth. Take this for what it's worth and try not to worry. Of course, I am alao of the same mind as Red when it comes to recession-proofing oneself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northbeaumont Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Looks like it's going to be a rough week for the markets. Get ready and have your seasick pills ready.I saw a cartoon in Hustler Humor magazine which showed a man and a woman going into his apartment. In the room were whipping posts, chains, locking stocks, beds of nails, etc. The woman said to the man: "This isn't what I was expecting when you said that you were going to take me to your place and show me your stocks and bonds!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Guess I should Dump my 1000 shares of Google........................ NOT!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Guess I should Dump my 1000 shares of Google........................ NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!Heck, no. It's only dropped $150 in 2 months. Why get rid of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 That was a Joke Red......especially since I got in @ $85/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Wow. You must be friends with Larry Page and Sergey Brin, since it has never sold below $95.Seriously, though, can you imagine how Google owners feel right now, knowing that the stock was at $750 in November, is at $600 today, and knowing what the markets are going to do tomorrow? Google will clearly survive, but watching your stock fall $200 to $300 in a little over two months has to REALLY suck, no matter what price you bought it at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanS Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Wow. You must be friends with Larry Page and Sergey Brin, since it has never sold below $95.Seriously, though, can you imagine how Google owners feel right now, knowing that the stock was at $750 in November, is at $600 today, and knowing what the markets are going to do tomorrow? Google will clearly survive, but watching your stock fall $200 to $300 in a little over two months has to REALLY suck, no matter what price you bought it at....yes, it would, but what would make me feel even worse is knowing that I bought GOOG at $750... $600... or let's just say $500/share... and then having to remind myself that the nearest competitor was selling for only $21/share (yahoo). Yahoo peaked at about $100/share, at the height of the tech bubble and is now at 80% below its peak level. Google seems overpriced, to me, and is in a bubble of its own.Even back in 2005, GOOG at $300/share was causing concern:http://www.smartmoney.com/commonsense/inde...?story=20050607 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Well I was in on a pre-order block bid estimated at $125/IPO, pre-order blocks received an initial partial credit refund when it opened that Thursday, and with in 2 hours it was @ $95 and made a 18% profit by the end of the day. And having a future Son in Law at Morgan Stanley didn't hurt much. I just wish I would have got the entire block myself, had I known what I know now, I would have put up my entire retirement on it. but I am not complaining. I had a ton of so called experts telling me to wait, that the initial bubble will break and it will level off and fall, what a dumba$$ I was. I could have still got in on more the next day @ $100 and some change. Even Tommy (Son in Law) was a little leery. You just about had to go in on a whole block to insure you would be in the winning allotment before opening morning. I had people telling me that after the 180 day lockup time period and the inside people dump their shares to become liquid again, it will hit the pavement like a dead body. Oops that didn't happen either. It dipped to about $179 for a couple of days, then it shot off the roof and by then it was out of my reach. It will be a while before we see another rocket-ship like that again. I am a holder not a folder. It's always worked out for me that way. IPO Date: August 19, 2004 First Trade: 11:56 am ET at $100.01 Price: $85.00 Method: Modified Dutch Auction Lead Underwriters: Morgan Stanley Stock Symbol: GOOG Exchange: NASDAQ No. of Shares Offered: 19,605,052 Value of Offering: $1.67 billion Initial Market Cap: $23.1 billion Total Initial Shares Outstanding: 271.2 million (33.6 mil. class A, 237.6 mil. class Allocation Percentage: 74.2% of bidded shares Initial SEC Filings: Form S-1 Prelim. Prospectus (amend. 8/18) Form 10-Q Quarterly Report (amend. 8/18) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 Asian markets have had even bigger losses in early Tuesday trading than had took on Monday. Dow futures are down 511 at the moment. Should be interesting to see how much of the tsunami hits US markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 If you're that squeamish, Macbro, switch future contriubtion to the fixed account or money market fund if you have one. I would leave existing equity balances where they are, or you risk wiping out future gains because you won't be invested in the market the week, or the couple of days, that things go well. Don't do more than 20% in bonds and ideally in a total bond market index-a mix of long, mid and short-- right now. The problem is most 457s and 403bs have crap for money fund options. I recommend shopping around for the best money market mutual fund yield you can find, and putting as much as you can there, outside of your qualified plan. I know everyone has 'advice', but if it makes you feel better, I've worked in the biz more than 15 years. Not in sales; rather product mgmt. Everything from retail mutual funds to qualified plans to life insurance and annuities. I believe that a straightforward savings and investment approach is best, especially if you don't have a super-high income or net worth. Take this for what it's worth and try not to worry. Of course, I am alao of the same mind as Red when it comes to recession-proofing oneself!You are SO right! The 457 plan that is available to me at work sux eggs. There are about 10 choices (international, growth, bond, technology, etc.) and they all pretty much suck.I repositioned things to a 25% split last year, and tilted it towards more conservative investments, but even those were down on my last statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark F. Barnes Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Well the Fed is holding out on points info, I am sure there will be a surge of panic sellers, might be a time to pounce on some good stuff on a panic downswing, that will recover and produce a nice margin, got Tommy working hard this morning watching to waters for the blue fin to show it's head. I really don't expect a huge dip, it's not going to be another black Monday. It's just a blip, just try and catch something cheap and ride the surge back up. The Bell rings in an hour, let's just watch and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 The Fed just announced an emergency rate cut of 3/4 of a point. Sounds like they don't think it's a blip. The Fed rate cut, coupled with Bush's 'rebate' plan, give the impression that the government is in panic mode, despite Bush's refusal to use the 'R' word. After hours trading is all down around 4-6%.Should be interesting.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkieEric Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 The Fed just announced an emergency rate cut of 3/4 of a point. Sounds like they don't think it's a blip. The Fed rate cut, coupled with Bush's 'rebate' plan, give the impression that the government is in panic mode, despite Bush's refusal to use the 'R' word. After hours trading is all down around 4-6%.Should be interesting.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/Had the fed actually acted last week, I wonder if today could have been avoided. Yes, should be interesting - and painfulI still think the market is overreacting, but huge drops like this seem to create a self-fulfilling prophecy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 I don't think the Fed rate changes do as much as they claim. I believe they hype them in an attempt to make them more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkieEric Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 I don't think the Fed rate changes do as much as they claim. I believe they hype them in an attempt to make them more meaningful.I don't think they do, either, but they seem to be help in bolstering stocks in times of need - that is, if the market is really wanting onePerhaps I really should have said, "had the fed cut sooner and harder over the past few months," but hindsight is 20/20. I was definitely hoping the size of this cut would have a little more impact on the market, but guess not. We'll see in a few min... I think it's funny that everyone is now an expert and claims we're in a recession (we're obviously not technically in one), when that thought probably hadn't even entered their minds a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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