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Tropical Storm Erin - 2007


Jax

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Attention fellow Near East Enders!

Just in!

With the amount of rain that has fallen in the East End and will

continue

this afternoon, we want to keep abreast of the conditions in the

neighborhood. The Flood Warning has been extended to 5:00 p.m.

Braes Bayou is above flood stage. Water is currently on N. MacGregor

from

Sylvan to Wildwood.

Before noon water was already over the frontage roads of I-610 from 288

past Cullen. Five inches of rain was reported in two hours at I-610 and

I-45.

There are reports of water on portions of Leeland and other streets

heading to and from downtown.

High water on Harrisburg,

Canal, & Navigation, especially near the Maximus Coffee Factory.

High water in Glenbrook Valley.

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there are also two building collapses - one at the Randall's at Clear Lake City Blvd./SpaceCenter Blvd., and the other at Maxwell House (Maximus) on Harrisburg

the HPD/HFD active incident report is looooong

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Why do you say no way?

It's not even close enough for the models to predict where it's going, besides towards the gulf. Anything could happen, but don't say there's no way, there's always a chance. In this case, there's a higher chance it'll hit Texas than Florida or the east coat.

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Why do you say no way?

It's not even close enough for the models to predict where it's going, besides towards the gulf. Anything could happen, but don't say there's no way, there's always a chance. In this case, there's a higher chance it'll hit Texas than Florida or the east coat.

I say that because it's currently projected to go towards us or S. Texas. I think early projections are rarely accurate, therefore I believe this one will change course and hit another location.

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These storms never stay on track. No way it hits Houston.

Well, actually, the exact forecast track right now takes it into the lower Texas coast... near Brownsville or Corpus. Of course, it's still several days out and this will most likely change at least a bit. The thing is, though, the forecast track has been slowly shifting northward each day... bringing it closer to Houston. It's most likely going to make landfall somewhere between northern Mexico and Louisiana... Texas lies in the middle of that. At this point chances of Houston taking a DIRECT hit are low... but those chances are slowly increasing and it needs to be watched.

I am sure if you told people in Galveston and Corpus Christi in the summer of 2004 that there was a chance they would see a white Christmas that year, they could have said you were crazy. :wacko:

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About Dean, I doubt it happens. I remember in sixth grade (2002), when Lili was coming towards us. It was a Cat 4 in the Gulf, then 12 hours before landfall, it went down to a Cat 1/Tropical Storm, and shifted northward into Lake Charles. Dean may be the big one, but I hope it doesn't happen. It would be CNN/Fox News/MSNBC/all local channel Dean coverage 24/7 like with Rita.

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About Dean, I doubt it happens. I remember in sixth grade (2002), when Lili was coming towards us. It was a Cat 4 in the Gulf, then 12 hours before landfall, it went down to a Cat 1/Tropical Storm, and shifted northward into Lake Charles. Dean may be the big one, but I hope it doesn't happen. It would be CNN/Fox News/MSNBC/all local channel Dean coverage 24/7 like with Rita.

You can't compare storms like that... that's just sounds stupid. Every storm is different.

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About Dean, I doubt it happens. I remember in sixth grade (2002), when Lili was coming towards us. It was a Cat 4 in the Gulf, then 12 hours before landfall, it went down to a Cat 1/Tropical Storm, and shifted northward into Lake Charles. Dean may be the big one, but I hope it doesn't happen. It would be CNN/Fox News/MSNBC/all local channel Dean coverage 24/7 like with Rita.

Lili was headed straight for Lafayette, LA (I lived there at the time), for at least a day, maybe more. And it plowed right over us in the morning as a Cat 2. It did weaken over night from a Cat 4.

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I say that because it's currently projected to go towards us or S. Texas. I think early projections are rarely accurate, therefore I believe this one will change course and hit another location.

Yes, early predictions are not always accurate, but that's no reason to be certain it's going to go somewhere else. Predictions are based on probabilities, and its more probable that it will hit the gulf coast. It's always possible, though less likely, that it will go somewhere else.

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Lili was headed straight for Lafayette, LA (I lived there at the time), for at least a day, maybe more. And it plowed right over us in the morning as a Cat 2. It did weaken over night from a Cat 4.

Well, I remember being in sixth grade, and my Science teacher (we were all talking about hurricanes at the time), showed us Lili on her computer screen, and it looked like it was blowing right to Lake Charles/Houston, but it shifted north a bit.

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As for Dean, it's looking like (and this is a big area b/c it's still a week out) Brownsville to New Orleans for the best chance of landfall... of course Houston is right in the middle of that.

Note... it's always better for a storm to go inland east of you as opposed to west of you... the east side of the storm is where the strongest winds and heaviest and most widespread rains are b/c that's where the wind and moisture is coming inland off of the Gulf due to the southerly and easterly winds.

Examples...

Hurricane Rita... went inland just east of Houston and while we saw some good winds b/c it was such a strong storm... we didn't see much rain.

Tropical Storm Erin... much weaker... went inland just northeast of Corpus... further distance from us than Rita... and look at all of the flooding we got in Houston. We actually got a lot more rain from Erin than Corpus b/c they were on the west side of the storm... by just a few miles!

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Imagine if Dean made landfall where Erin made landfall. That would be a ____ing disaster!

Yes, it would. It's much better it goes east of us into Louisiana than into Corpus or the Matagorda Bay area. They were just talking on the news on how it was a beautiful day in Corpus today... and the center went inland just northeast of them!

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As for Dean, it's looking like (and this is a big area b/c it's still a week out) Brownsville to New Orleans for the best chance of landfall... of course Houston is right in the middle of that.

Your right about not knowing where it will hit. Because of Katrina every one is all jumpy and getting ready for the worst. That could be a good thing just in case it is real bad or it will be Rita all over again. Alot of the people that left went towards it instead of away because Rita turned NW before land fall. Many people that need to leave could not because of all the traffic by those who should have stayed put. Houston should prepare but not overeact like we did with Rita and we did a god job with Erin, but I still dont get why people think they can drive through a flooded underpass and/or freeways knowing how Houston floods. If dean did hit where Erin did it would be bad. Look what it did to us. It will be worse that what allison did.

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Your right about not knowing where it will hit. Because of Katrina every one is all jumpy and getting ready for the worst. That could be a good thing just in case it is real bad or it will be Rita all over again. Alot of the people that left went towards it instead of away because Rita turned NW before land fall. Many people that need to leave could not because of all the traffic by those who should have stayed put. Houston should prepare but not overeact like we did with Rita and we did a god job with Erin, but I still dont get why people think they can drive through a flooded underpass and/or freeways knowing how Houston floods. If dean did hit where Erin did it would be bad. Look what it did to us. It will be worse that what allison did.

We should ALWAYS prepare for the worst. People need to know that the ONLY people who should evacuate are those that are told to...those who are in the path of possible storm surge (flooding caused by water from the Gulf being pushed inland from the wind). The problem w/ Rita was that so many people evacuated that did not have to. People who live right along the coast also need to know that they are going to have to evacuate even when, in the end most times, not much happens. By the time you know exactly where the center of a hurricane is going to make landfall... it's too late to evacuate the coast. Don't like it, don't live on the coast or stay and risk your life.

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I keep seeing the car on ch 13 with water up to the roof and the windshield wipers are still working, They should make all windshield wiper motor this good.

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I keep seeing the car on ch 13 with water up to the roof and the windshield wipers are still working, They should make all windshield wiper motor this good.

Why do people still try to go into deep water. When will they ever learn.

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I keep seeing the car on ch 13 with water up to the roof and the windshield wipers are still working, They should make all windshield wiper motor this good.

Yeah! That was kind of cool! You could see the wipers flipping to and fro and water splashing around. Neato.

Here's an idea: Build a water/car mobile for the Art Car Parade. Bet it would sell. Sounds silly but it would take off. We have plenty of designers on this forum that could draw up some ideas. Serious. Remember that old stock footage of the Volkswagon that becomes a spped boat? Cool.

Try this on for size!

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/625919/awesome_boatmobile/

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