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Texas Economy Through 2008


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Yes!...except for the metroplex.

TEXAS ECONOMY

Texas will buck national economic slowdown, economist says

Austin job growth will rise to 4 percent, he predicts.

By By Claudia Grisales

AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN

Friday, February 23, 2007

Growth in the national gross domestic product is expected to remain below 3 percent during the next year, signaling a slowdown, Shankar said.

And many jobs tied to the national housing industry, such as construction, are expected to scale back.

"Because of the housing bust nationally, job creation has really slowed quite a bit," Shankar said.

But Austin is expected to post a job growth rate of above 4 percent, which is above the 3.4 percent seen during the 2004 to 2006 period.

The revival of the tech industry is one factor, Shankar said, and "the state government and university are in a really good position."

For San Antonio, fueled by steady growth from local tourism and military operations as well as new expansions such as the Toyota Motor Corp. plant, the workforce will grow 3.2 percent, up from 2.7 percent in 2004-2006.

Houston is probably the state's biggest economic hot spot, Shankar said, thanks to its sheer size and broad-based growth and booming energy industry.

Also, Houston reaps the benefits of growing international trade through its port operations.

"As long as international trade is expanding and improving, Houston is going to benefit," he said.

Dallas is one of the state's weakest metro areas, since it relies heavily on defense contractors and transportation, which are heading for a slowdown. There will be less spending for contractors, while trucking firms, rail transportation and warehouse services are expected to see declining business.

cgrisales@statesman.com; 912-5933.

The rest of the article.

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Is that really Dallas' main industries?

Dallas is probably the most diversified of Texas metropolitan areas, but it has disproportionately high numbers of frieght rail jobs (HQ of BNSF is in Fort Worth, and the region is a key east-west rail hub), as well as the finance-related industries.

Houston is overly dependent on oil & gas, Austin is overly dependent on high tech, and San Antonio is overly dependent upon the military.

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48% according to Barton Smith this morning. As compared to 78% in th 80s.

Overly is such a dramitic term.

Of course this is the 21st century and not the 1980's. Niche seems to be alot of talk about the latter 20th century with little knowledge in regards to the 21st so we'll stick with Bart.

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48% according to Barton Smith this morning. As compared to 78% in th 80s.

Overly is such a dramitic term.

And how dependent upon oil & gas is Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, etc.?

Come on, if you make the snapshot comparison of peer cities in the year 2007, it is very clear that we are disproportionately dependent upon the energy industry. You are correct that we aren't as dependent upon it as we were in 1986, but our dependence still remains a source of economic volatility and risk for us. It is indisputable.

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Take oil out of the equation. How about the tech bust? Bad, bad times in Palo Alto. How much of the Bay Area economy was tech?

What's the perfect mix? I seriously doubt there is one.

Barton also said if oil goes below $45 bbl then the Houston economy shrinks.

Anything above $45 is cream de la creme.

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Take oil out of the equation. How about the tech bust? Bad, bad times in Palo Alto. How much of the Bay Area economy was tech?

What's the perfect mix? I seriously doubt there is one.

I'm not saying that every other city has a safe and diversified economy. Detroit is proof solid of that. ...in fact, I provided a list of how Texas cities weigh in. This isn't a my-city-is better/worse-than-other-cities discussion. It just is what it is.

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Does anyone here really think that it's NOT troubling to have half of your economy dependent on one industry?

Not until I get the stats on what makes up the economies of other cities.

Niche and his statis-babble about D/FW having "disproportionately high numbers of frieght rail jobs".

Energy itself is so diverse it's not just one single area. Upstream, downstream, processing, gas, liquids, chemicals. The list goes on and on.

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  • 10 months later...

When it really comes down to it, I think Houston is pretty diverse. I grew up in Dallas and it seems to be more of a corporate/finance city that is dependent on the more "blue-collar" cities like Houston to keep their economy going.

Houston has several things that will help it "buck the norm" when it comes to the economy. Not only does Houston have the energy industry, but also a shipping port, NASA, and one of the steadiest real estate markets in the country. I feel and have banked my future on Houston because of it consistency. I think it is a good bet.

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  • 6 months later...

Has anyone noticed the news. All week (well, except today) it was doom and gloom on all the financial channels. Today, the market rallied a bit, oil dropped in price and now all of a sudden we are out of the financial woods.

I think these 'news' outfits are very irresponsible and shallow.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25705732

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Has anyone noticed the news. All week (well, except today) it was doom and gloom on all the financial channels. Today, the market rallied a bit, oil dropped in price and now all of a sudden we are out of the financial woods.

I think these 'news' outfits are very irresponsible and shallow.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25705732

It's CNBC. Consider their audience, the "irrational exuberance" crowd. Also, consider that when the markets are up, people watch their network. When the markets are down, they watch something else. They have a vested interest in pumping the market.

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It's CNBC. Consider their audience, the "irrational exuberance" crowd. Also, consider that when the markets are up, people watch their network. When the markets are down, they watch something else. They have a vested interest in pumping the market.

They aren't the only ones. It is funny how sources of information regarding the commercial real estate markets will do the same thing. I was one of over a thousand people that logged on to the Reis conference call (enough to cause technical difficulties) earlier today to listen to their chief economist start off on a panicked rant about how bad the economy was...before talking about how terrific the commercial real estate fundamentals are and will become.

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They aren't the only ones. It is funny how sources of information regarding the commercial real estate markets will do the same thing. I was one of over a thousand people that logged on to the Reis conference call (enough to cause technical difficulties) earlier today to listen to their chief economist start off on a panicked rant about how bad the economy was...before talking about how terrific the commercial real estate fundamentals are and will become.

Who's that arse clown who sells stocks to college kids? Friday he was crying and Tuesday he was gung ho.

The people on TV news are actors, and when they can't get a scoop, they MSU.

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Who's that arse clown who sells stocks to college kids? Friday he was crying and Tuesday he was gung ho.

The people on TV news are actors, and when they can't get a scoop, they MSU.

I think you're talking about Cramer. He is a moron.

I just think they go whichever way the market goes without really going really deep into market fundamentals and/or underlying causes.

If things are up ... they see sunny skies. If things are down, doom and gloom.

It gives people a false impression of the true nature of the economy.

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