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Hurricane Prediction

Spencer Street

By Spencer Street
in The Weather

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TJones

TJones

Posted
Posted

Well, the fact that they think most will hit the east coast and leave the Gulf alone is good news for on-going rebuilding. IMO if one or 2 good storms hit N.O. again, you might as well pack it in for them I think the levee will break again. Game Over.

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Spencer Street

Spencer Street

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Well, the fact that they think most will hit the east coast and leave the Gulf alone is good news for on-going rebuilding. IMO if one or 2 good storms hit N.O. again, you might as well pack it in for them I think the levee will break again. Game Over.

you think they told noaa to say that most of the storms are going to miss gulf coast so that more poepole would come back to new orleans? hmm.. maybe...

It's good for business at Sam's Club. :D

ha!

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TJones

TJones

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you think they told noaa to say that most of the storms are going to miss gulf coast so that more poepole come back to new orleans? hmm.. maybe...

ha!

Nah, I don't think NOAA gives a rat's patootey about N.O. This is weather, and they are just looking at patterns throughout the years. We'll probably get crushed this year. :lol:

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  • 4 months later...
TheNiche

TheNiche

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They were off this year but don't ever let your guard down. How does that old saying go? A flap from a Butterfly's wing can change the weather on the other side of the world.

Yeah, that's chaos theory. But the popularized phrase is meaningless. Although counterintuitive, the end result of chaotic inputs is often statistically-predictable order.

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  • 1 year later...
editor

editor

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I think I heard 16 named storms this year. Now last year was a bust.

What do you think the odds are that we'll see a storm this year?

The last four years were busts. Maybe more, but I've only been paying attention for four. The predictions are always way off and get revised several times as the year progresses and they're STILL not even close.

Meteorology isn't an exact science. It's closer to an art at this point. All anyone can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

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houstonmacbro

houstonmacbro

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The last four years were busts. Maybe more, but I've only been paying attention for four. The predictions are always way off and get revised several times as the year progresses and they're STILL not even close.

Meteorology isn't an exact science. It's closer to an art at this point. All anyone can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Yeah. The thing that worries me are all of these early season tornadoes. Wonder if that is an indicator of things to come in the Atlantic.

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editor

editor

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Yeah. The thing that worries me are all of these early season tornadoes. Wonder if that is an indicator of things to come in the Atlantic.

That's funny, because I was thinking just yesterday how late tornado season is starting. But then my focus (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri) is probably different than yours (Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado).

If I remember my tornado training correctly, the worst time for tornadoes in the upper Midwest is March/April. There have been hardly any this year. In fact, I think there might not have been any in that time frame. Spring has been brutal this year in the North. We still had temperatures in the 30's last week. We should be pushing 80 on a daily basis around now. Freakin' global warming.

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RedScare

RedScare

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Tornado season for the Upper Midwest does not begin until the jetstream shifts northward, allowing warm moist Gulf air to move northward, where it collides with cold dry air from Canada. Peak tornado season is March to May in the South, and during the summer in the Upper Midwest. The 2008 tornado season is on pace to be the most active in history.

Freakin' global warming, indeed.

2008 NOAA Tornado Graph

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RedScare

RedScare

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Actually, Gary, I was not blaming this year's record tornado activity on climate change. Far from it. In fact, I have no idea. I was merely making light of the swipe at climate change based on faulty memory and faulty data.

More faulty memory. It has indeed reached the 30s at Chicago's Midway Airport in May. It reached 39.9 degrees between the hours of 4:00 am and 6:00 am on May 4.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airpor...hlyHistory.html

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Subdude

Subdude

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The last four years were busts. Maybe more, but I've only been paying attention for four. The predictions are always way off and get revised several times as the year progresses and they're STILL not even close.

Meteorology isn't an exact science. It's closer to an art at this point. All anyone can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Predictions of a dire hurricane season are one of those predictable annual news nuggets, like that groundhog in PA or UFO stories around Halloween. News like nature abhors a vacuum, and things like this exist to take up space and give people something to chat about.

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rsb320

rsb320

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1983 was one of the slowest hurricane seasons on record, but we got hit first anyway.

Alicia's eye went right over Montrose and Downtown. I remember going outside during the calm to let a dog in that had gotten loose. After a few minutes, the storm started up again, with wind from the opposite direction.

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TJones

TJones

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Alicia's eye went right over Montrose and Downtown. I remember going outside during the calm to let a dog in that had gotten loose. After a few minutes, the storm started up again, with wind from the opposite direction.

rsb my friend, the eye went right through Katy to Baytown, that's how big it was. That was a Cat.3 Hurricane that obliterated parts of Baytown with it's storm surge. I would hate to see what a Perfect Cat.5 would do.

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Subdude

Subdude

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You think maybe The Weather Channel throws a few bucks at 'em to bump up the numbers?

No, but look at it this way: If you were in the hurricane prediction biz, and that was your big burst of publicity each year, wouldn't you tend to over-estimate instead of under-estimate the risk?

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RedScare

RedScare

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No, but look at it this way: If you were in the hurricane prediction biz, and that was your big burst of publicity each year, wouldn't you tend to over-estimate instead of under-estimate the risk?

Sure. I don't think there is any conspiracy here. They badly underestimated the freak 2005 season, so they erred on the side of caution in 2006. Even if the predictions are off, it does draw attention to the start of hurrican season, and importantly for the forecasters, themselves and their institution. And no one needs an explanation why the news media makes a big deal of the predictions. That is the business they are in.

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rsb320

rsb320

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rsb my friend, the eye went right through Katy to Baytown, that's how big it was. That was a Cat.3 Hurricane that obliterated parts of Baytown with it's storm surge. I would hate to see what a Perfect Cat.5 would do.

Okay, the center of the storm went directly over the inner city. Baytown was on the dirty side and suffered damage. The west side of town did not suffer badly. I know this because I moved to my parent's due to the lack of electricity in town for over a week. Why is it alway hot as hell after a hurricane?

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rsb320

rsb320

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Because they generally happen in the summer.

Smarty pants! :P I've been through many, many hurricanes and it always seems hotter a day after the storm than it was the day before the storm. Maybe it's the humidity because everything is soaked and evaporating. Maybe because you're outside laboring to clean up. Not having electricity is a given.

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CDeb

CDeb

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Smarty pants! :P I've been through many, many hurricanes and it always seems hotter a day after the storm than it was the day before the storm. Maybe it's the humidity because everything is soaked and evaporating. Maybe because you're outside laboring to clean up. Not having electricity is a given.

I agree with your sentiment. It DOES seem hotter the day after a hurricane, but I think it's perception caused by working all day long cleaning up with no A/C refuge to retreat to. I remember cleaning up after Lili in Louisiana in 2002 and driving around in our car to get some air conditioning to cool off (and go to Sonic, which had electricity, for some ice cream).

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RedScare

RedScare

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Okay, the center of the storm went directly over the inner city. Baytown was on the dirty side and suffered damage. The west side of town did not suffer badly. I know this because I moved to my parent's due to the lack of electricity in town for over a week. Why is it alway hot as hell after a hurricane?

The hurricane made landfall on the western end of Galveston. I believe it tracked along Highway 6. As it passed through Houston, it generally ran between Highway 6 and Beltway 8, even though the eye covered a large section of the city.

I'll look for an article to support my belief.

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