Driverless cars

[Ross]

So a developer starts building and the houses are bought before any of the infrastructure has even gone into place? What if nobody bought a single house, where would the money come from?

 

Also, the reason this sprawl took place in the first place was the expanded urban highways that made this possible, which were subsidized decades ago. Nice of you to ignore that.

No, the developer builds all of the infrastructure (or creates an MUD to do it), then the houses get built. If no one buys a house, the developer (or the MUD bondholders) loses a bunch of money.  At some point, the streets and such get deeded to the County or the MUD for the area. No public money is used except for the connector streets that lead to the developments, and many of those are paid for by the developers as well, just to get them built timely.

 

The developments are usually built in areas where land is available in pieces of 100+ acres or more, as you need some sort of scale to make the infrastructure economic. That's not going to happen in town, as there aren't any large pieces of property available to develop this way. And face it, Vik, the folks who buy in the new suburbs have zero interest in living in the city. Especially the folks who are spending $500k on a new house in a great development.

[livincinco]

Although this thread has gone off on a number of barely related tangents, I'm still foolish enough to try for intelligent discussion of this topic one more time.

As usual, Mercedes is leading the way and making the most demonstrable statement of continuing incremental progress in this area with the 2014 S-class. Additionally, the car is being offered as a plugin hybrid.

http://www.automedia.com/Blog/post/how-the-2014-mercedes-benz-s-class-runs-semi-autonomously.aspx

http://www.gizmag.com/mercedes-s500-plug-in-hybrid/28769/

[livincinco]

New video from Mercedes showing their long distance autonomous driving road test. Nissan has announced that they will have fully autonomous production cars by 2020 and Volvo announced that they expect to have a "zero accident" car by then as well.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM

[Slick Vik]

New video from Mercedes showing their long distance autonomous driving road test. Nissan has announced that they will have fully autonomous production cars by 2020 and Volvo announced that they expect to have a "zero accident" car by then as well.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM

Unless you get rid of all human driven cars what's the point? People don't want to ride buses and trains but they'll have their car driven for them? Doesn't sound like FREEDOM to me. And the worst part is this only increases auto dependency.

[livincinco]

Unless you get rid of all human driven cars what's the point? People don't want to ride buses and trains but they'll have their car driven for them? Doesn't sound like FREEDOM to me. And the worst part is this only increases auto dependency.

I don't see how this increases dependency at all. This is a market driven innovation that enables people to choose whether to invest their money to utilize it. The video clearly demonstrated a single car driving in an environment where all other cars were operated by humans.

I think that it's still a very open question what the adoption rate will be, but I do expect that there will be mass market acceptance of incremental driver assistance over the next several years. Historically, Mercedes has been on the cutting edge of automotive technology that then is adopted by mass market manufacturers. I expect that the same thing will happen with the innovations on the new S class.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-autos-mercedes-s550-review-20131005,0,4709398.story

[august948]

Unless you get rid of all human driven cars what's the point? People don't want to ride buses and trains but they'll have their car driven for them? Doesn't sound like FREEDOM to me. And the worst part is this only increases auto dependency.

I don't see how auto dependency is a problem at all. A future where an electric vehicle takes me to my destination quietly, cleanly, and efficiently and then picks me up and brings me back home again. That sounds like freedom to me.

[Slick Vik]

I don't see how auto dependency is a problem at all. A future where an electric vehicle takes me to my destination quietly, cleanly, and efficiently and then picks me up and brings me back home again. That sounds like freedom to me.

Auto dependency isn't freedom. Having options is freedom.

[JLWM8609]

Auto dependency isn't freedom. Having options is freedom.

 

A car isn't an option?

[august948]

Auto dependency isn't freedom. Having options is freedom.

Having the option to go where I want when I want is freedom.

[livincinco]

Auto dependency isn't freedom. Having options is freedom.

We all get that you hate cars, but this adds options. It doesn't remove them.

[Slick Vik]

A car isn't an option?

 

One option.

[livincinco]

One option.

What's with all the two - three word posts? You're becoming the new LTWACS.

[livincinco]

Interesting take on potential impact on cyclists

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2013/oct/11/driver-less-cars-coming-bike-blog

[IronTiger]

I think if done effectively, driverless cars (at least for some people) could ease jams. Traffic jams are less caused by simple congestion but rather when a jerk decides he can't wait 10 seconds, requiring the car(s) around him to brake, and so by the time you actually get to it, the perp's long gone.

[livincinco]

I think if done effectively, driverless cars (at least for some people) could ease jams. Traffic jams are less caused by simple congestion but rather when a jerk decides he can't wait 10 seconds, requiring the car(s) around him to brake, and so by the time you actually get to it, the perp's long gone.

I agree, but lots of speculation about how this is actually going to work in practice. The only thing that really seems certain at this point is that this is rapidly gaining momentum and that we are entering a period of semiautonomous cars. I expect that hands-off driving for congestion should be in mass market cars within the next couple of years.

[livincinco]

The UK is doing a limited proof of concept using a battery powered driverless taxi scheduled to launch in 2015. Uses an Über like phone app as well.

http://cars.uk.msn.com/news/driverless-cars-on-uk-pavements-by-2015-1

[Subdude]

I agree, but lots of speculation about how this is actually going to work in practice. The only thing that really seems certain at this point is that this is rapidly gaining momentum and that we are entering a period of semiautonomous cars. I expect that hands-off driving for congestion should be in mass market cars within the next couple of years.

 

I haven't followed the topic closely, but is it not the case that there would be two stages of adaption?  1) when driverless cars become increasingly prevalent but are autonomous in their actions, and 2) when there are enough of them on the road that they could be networked together to optimize traffic.  It seems there would be benefits in both stages, but that these would really start to accrue once the network effects could be realized (there's an analogy there with the growth of computers at first as individual workstations, and then all within the internet).

 

It would be good if driverless car producers started thinking now in terms of common communication and control protocols.

[livincinco]

I haven't followed the topic closely, but is it not the case that there would be two stages of adaption?  1) when driverless cars become increasingly prevalent but are autonomous in their actions, and 2) when there are enough of them on the road that they could be networked together to optimize traffic.  It seems there would be benefits in both stages, but that these would really start to accrue once the network effects could be realized (there's an analogy there with the growth of computers at first as individual workstations, and then all within the internet).

 

It would be good if driverless car producers started thinking now in terms of common communication and control protocols.

 

I think that there's going to be a number of incremental stages that are going to happen over the next ten years.  The early stages are already occurring.  The 2014 Mercedes S-class offers hands free driving in congestion including the ability to accelerate and decelerate with traffic as well as the ability to stay within lanes and maintain appropriate speed/distance.  Ford has offered autonomous parallel parking for a while now.  I expect we will continue to see that kind of innovation for the next 3-5 years as those features move into a higher percentage of production cars and high end cars move into additional functionality.

 

I also think that within 3-5 years, you'll start to see movement toward autonomous long-haul trucks as well.

 

I agree with you about common communication and protocols and some of that is starting to happen, but there's so much innovation going on right now that I think that's still a couple of years down the road.  There's several different approaches toward that.  Google is taking more of a cloud based approach.  Mercedes is working with a large number of in car cameras/sensors that make it more self-contained.

 

I firmly believe that in the next 25 years we're going to see a transportation revolution similar to the communications revolution that we've seen over the last 25 years.

 

 

[luciaphile]

I firmly believe that in the next 25 years we're going to see a transportation revolution similar to the communications revolution that we've seen over the last 25 years.

 

I guess this still has a degree of unreality to most of us - otherwise I'm a little surprised the subject here or elsewhere has brought forth no Boomer nostalgia for driving, from when teenage car culture was at its height, nor any paranoia about the seeming boon to authoritarian control this could be.

Mostly I've heard people - perhaps those bedeviled by check engine lights - express concern about computer failure.

Besides relieving congestion, the possible conservation aspect is compelling:

 

As originally pointed out by climate and energy scientist Amory Lovins, only about one percent of the energy in a gallon of gasoline goes to moving the driver forward. About 75 percent of the energy leaves the tailpipe as heat and almost all the rest is needed to move a 4,000-pound car. But the bulk of that 4,000 pounds is only there to keep the driver and passengers safe in the relatively unlikely event of a major crash. If that risk was reduced dramatically, 4,000 pounds might come down closer to 750 to 1,000 pounds. - See more at: http://www.driverlesscarhq.com/category/environment/#sthash.sHduP0TZ.dpuf

 

Okay, confession: I just wanted to plug Amory Lovins. He would be energy secretary in a better world.

I guess. I haven't a clue who the energy secretary is.

[livincinco]

 

I guess this still has a degree of unreality to most of us - otherwise I'm a little surprised the subject here or elsewhere has brought forth no Boomer nostalgia for driving, from when teenage car culture was at its height, nor any paranoia about the seeming boon to authoritarian control this could be.

Mostly I've heard people - perhaps those bedeviled by check engine lights - express concern about computer failure.

Besides relieving congestion, the possible conservation aspect is compelling:

 

As originally pointed out by climate and energy scientist Amory Lovins, only about one percent of the energy in a gallon of gasoline goes to moving the driver forward. About 75 percent of the energy leaves the tailpipe as heat and almost all the rest is needed to move a 4,000-pound car. But the bulk of that 4,000 pounds is only there to keep the driver and passengers safe in the relatively unlikely event of a major crash. If that risk was reduced dramatically, 4,000 pounds might come down closer to 750 to 1,000 pounds. - See more at: http://www.driverlesscarhq.com/category/environment/#sthash.sHduP0TZ.dpuf

 

Okay, confession: I just wanted to plug Amory Lovins. He would be energy secretary in a better world.

I guess. I haven't a clue who the energy secretary is.

 

 

It's a very good point and is definitely one of the possibilities with a driverless car, but I do think that the future of driverless is probably electric.  Driverless removes many of the range concerns that occur now because of the ability of the car to calculate exactly when it needs to be charged.

 

Especially if you tie that to the progress that has been made with inductive charging.  The car could essentially park in a space and recharge itself.

[arche_757]

I think Truckers would fight, fight, fight, fight, fight any sort of autonomous trucking system.

Besides we virtually have that already.  It is called rail.  We have a massively extensive system of that and it is under utilized (I think) for the most part.

 

As for cars - yeah people like me would probably be worried about power failures and problems with the computer system.

 

One thing it would do for certain - limit speeds and tickets, and destroy the ability someone would have to drive drunk.

[livincinco]

I think Truckers would fight, fight, fight, fight, fight any sort of autonomous trucking system.

Besides we virtually have that already.  It is called rail.  We have a massively extensive system of that and it is under utilized (I think) for the most part.

 

As for cars - yeah people like me would probably be worried about power failures and problems with the computer system.

 

One thing it would do for certain - limit speeds and tickets, and destroy the ability someone would have to drive drunk.

 

I'm a huge proponent of the freight rail system in this country.  Most people that complain about how poor rail is in this country compared to Europe don't realize how much better our freight rail system is than Europe's.  That being said, there's still a huge amount of freight that moves by truck in this country.

 

No question that the truckers will fight this.  So will the taxi drivers and anyone else who drives a vehicle professionally. 

[Slick Vik]

I'm a huge proponent of the freight rail system in this country.  Most people that complain about how poor rail is in this country compared to Europe don't realize how much better our freight rail system is than Europe's.  That being said, there's still a huge amount of freight that moves by truck in this country.

 

No question that the truckers will fight this.  So will the taxi drivers and anyone else who drives a vehicle professionally. 

 

For freight rail. but against passenger rail. Hmmm

[livincinco]

For freight rail. but against passenger rail. Hmmm

 

There are several big differences but the most notable is.  Freight rail is inter-city.  Passenger rail as frequently discussed on this forum is intra-city.  I question the ROI of rail as an intra-city means of transportation, especially in light of ongoing innovation such as I've described above.

[arche_757]

^ ^ Remember folks we had passenger rail extensively across this country on basically the same lines still in operation today up until the 1960s.  I think we could easily re-implement rail as a passenger service, but now we would be fighting the low-fair airlines (SWA, JetBlue etc.)

 

I think driverless cars are a great idea - but I also believe it will be many, many years before complete control is given to the car and taken away from the driver.  Perhaps we will have cars that can operate independantly but then flip a switch and the driver can take over?

 

I can imagine though how grand it would be to sit and drink coffee in my cars back seat while reading the news on my tablet rather than focus on driving, or even get a few more minutes of shut eye?  Grand indeed.  But I do enjoy driving and would miss the ability to simply "go".  Americans have always been obcessed with open space and the ability to roam - it is why we settled such far away places as Oregon even with ample/verdant lands in between the Cascades and the Mississippi River being passed over by thousands of settlers.

[livincinco]

^ ^ Remember folks we had passenger rail extensively across this country on basically the same lines still in operation today up until the 1960s.  I think we could easily re-implement rail as a passenger service, but now we would be fighting the low-fair airlines (SWA, JetBlue etc.)

 

I think driverless cars are a great idea - but I also believe it will be many, many years before complete control is given to the car and taken away from the driver.  Perhaps we will have cars that can operate independantly but then flip a switch and the driver can take over?

 

I can imagine though how grand it would be to sit and drink coffee in my cars back seat while reading the news on my tablet rather than focus on driving, or even get a few more minutes of shut eye?  Grand indeed.  But I do enjoy driving and would miss the ability to simply "go".  Americans have always been obcessed with open space and the ability to roam - it is why we settled such far away places as Oregon even with ample/verdant lands in between the Cascades and the Mississippi River being passed over by thousands of settlers.

 

From what I've been reading, there is general agreement that the car needs to have the ability to re-engage the driver for the foreseeable future and that's one of the biggest challenges - doing that in a way that is seamless and safe for all.  I absolutely agree that we're going to see an incremental implementation that may take 15-25 years, but we're going to start seeing impact within 3-5 years.

 

The sweet spot for passenger rail in comparison to air seems to be <750 miles based on most of the research that I've seen.  Once you get beyond that, the speed differential with air travel becomes a huge advantage.  In Japan and Europe, that's not much of a constraint, but once you get outside of the northeast corridor in the US, you're looking at clusters that are in that range, not a continuous network and that's a challenge.

 

[arche_757]

Something else to consider:  The many cars on the road that are quite old - imagine its 2032 and the vast majority of newer vehicles are "driverless" or have that capability built-in...  now imagine a classic 1992 Toyota Camry cranking along down the road in front of you.  That guy/girl is doubtful to have a driverless system and that car is not constructed for that kind of interface.  What then?

[livincinco]

Something else to consider:  The many cars on the road that are quite old - imagine its 2032 and the vast majority of newer vehicles are "driverless" or have that capability built-in...  now imagine a classic 1992 Toyota Camry cranking along down the road in front of you.  That guy/girl is doubtful to have a driverless system and that car is not constructed for that kind of interface.  What then?

 

That's a very real question and one that there's a lot of discussion about.  Driverless cars have collision avoidance systems so they won't hit the car in front of them, but does everybody end up stacking up behind the slow car?  The same question exists with bicycles.  This is potentially a huge benefit for bike riders because they wouldn't have to worry about getting hit, but you could conceivably have bikes riding down the middle of the road, blocking all cars just because they can.

 

That's what I find so fascinating about this.  Huge potential benefits, but a ton of questions about implementation that are going to need to be addressed.  Large amounts of money being poured into answering those questions though.

 

[Slick Vik]

There are several big differences but the most notable is.  Freight rail is inter-city.  Passenger rail as frequently discussed on this forum is intra-city.  I question the ROI of rail as an intra-city means of transportation, especially in light of ongoing innovation such as I've described above.

 

Inter-city rail is a great idea in the right corridors. Also, just because driverless cars are coming doesn't mean that rail plans should be abandoned. You are pushing for a dependence on automobiles. Why should people be held hostage to a system only dependent on vehicles that cost immense amounts of money for the average person to purchase and maintain? In a way, riding a train is basically a driverless car already.

[august948]

Something else to consider:  The many cars on the road that are quite old - imagine its 2032 and the vast majority of newer vehicles are "driverless" or have that capability built-in...  now imagine a classic 1992 Toyota Camry cranking along down the road in front of you.  That guy/girl is doubtful to have a driverless system and that car is not constructed for that kind of interface.  What then?

 

Cash for clunkers?