Your Predictions for 2012

[editor]

This time last year, we did our annual predictions thread. You can read people's predictions for 2011 here:

Mine were:

• The real estate market will remain in the crapper.
  
• One or more Kardashian will end up under arrest.
  
• There will be a significant shift in the world on online television streaming: CBS will join either Hulu or AppleTV, or both; or NBC will finally make its shows available for rental on AppleTV.
  
• Google will dump another significant product, like it did with Wave.
  
• Sarah Palin's 15 minutes of fame will finally end.
  

Results:

1. Yes
   
2. No
   
3. Half
   
4. Yes Yes Yes Yes
   
5. Possibly a yes, depending on where you stand
   

How did everyone else do? And what are your predictions for 2012?

My predictions for 2012:

1. Facebook will jump the shark, and will start to go the way of MySpace.
   
2. Twitter will become more important and widespread, though I still don't understand its appeal.
   
3. Another social network will rise to prominence (Instagram? Tumblr? Printerest? Something new?)
   
4. Groupon will weaken and other deal sites will start to disappear as people suffer deal fatigue.
   
5. We'll start to hear about more civil unrest in China. It's been sporadic for the last few years, but I think the government will have a harder time keeping it quiet.
   
6. The GOP, unable to come up with a candidate that isn't a career Washington insider, will hand the election to Barack Obama. Again.
   
7. No change in the economy.
   

If you need inspiration for your predictions, you can follow this optional format:

• Celebrity death prediction
  
• Political prediction
  
• Economic prediction
  
• Technology prediction
  
• Earthquake/terrorist attack prediction
  

[Fringe]

End of the world?

[HoustonMidtown]

End of the world?

I'll add to that one: We will get very very tired about hearing about Dec 21, 2012

[marmer]

1. Celebrity death: Lindsay Lohan, Fidel Castro, maybe Raul Castro. In spite of this, normalization of relations with Cuba doesn't really move forward.

2. Political prediction: Obama easily wins over a Republican field which is badly fragmented and unable to unite behind a credible nominee. His relationship with Congress will get even more rocky and dysfunctional. The Right will continue to paint him as too liberal and the Left will continue to paint him as a tool of corporations.

3. Economic prediction: Gasoline rises above $4.00 to stay, government-backed job creation efforts have little effect, returning service members become a bigger "face" of unemployment.

4. Tech prediction: iCloud is Apple's first real miscalculation of the twenty-first century. Battery life and bandwidth issues mean that many users have a frustrating experience with cloud-based content delivery. Also, there will never be an Apple-branded TV.

5. Natural disaster: Summer 2012 is a repeat of summer 2011 for Texas. Drought and no hurricanes. I recently read a credible report which stated that the stationary high pressure that is causing the drought will keep the big storms away.

Bonus world prediction: Pro-democracy uprisings in the Middle East will wither as anti-Western Islamic governments are elected.

Sorry to be such a downer, but that's where I think we're headed. I can't cite sources, this is just my own interpretation and analysis of the news as presented in mass media.

[Marksmu]

1. Political prediction - Newt will implode due to the gigantic size of his EGO, and propensity for flip flopping and being bought off. The GOP will put up Mitt Romney who is a terrible candidate. Obama will lose to Mitt Romney, and republicans will recapture the senate and Presidency. The republican win will not be because the republicans put up a good candidate, but rather because democrats are not excited about Obama anymore and will not show up to vote. Eric Holder will resign or be replaced.

2. Media - I Predict that the media will continue to ignore Ron Paul and will belittle the fact that he wins the IOWA caucus. His supporters will be called crazy, and he will be called unelectable. His old newspaper will eventually be his demise - not his "radical" positions.

3. Debt. - The debt will continue to grow without any real attempt by congress or anyone else to make a real cut in spending.

4. Economic - The economy will continue to grow at an abysmal rate. The housing market will not improve at all on the West or East Coast, but traditionally republican states will see growth in housing and a higher rate of migration from traditionally blue states.

5. Random - Water Rights, fights between states over water, and a rural/urban water use fight will be big news. Corporations/speculators will buy water and hold cities/farmers hostage for big sums of money when water is needed.

6. Stock Market - will go up drastically right before the presidential election.

I dont keep up with anything about celebrities or technology so I will leave those predictions alone.

[TheNiche]

I'm going to second everything that Marksmu said except for #4 and #5 because some red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Florida will continue to have sucky housing markets compared to where they had been, with many people still underwater on their mortgages. I also tend to think that low interest rates will benefit everybody. As for the water thing, if it were to happen, it'll happen during the summer of a presidential election cycle and in reliably red states rather than swing states; nobody will care and it won't be big news.

[ChrisPHous]

1) Mexican drug cartel presence/violence has more of an impact in US and our intervention becomes more likely

2) Regent Square will break ground

3) Obama re-elected

4) California will have an earthquake of 6.0 of bigger

[20thStDad]

1. Lowest presidential voter turnout ever due to crappy candidates on both sides. Obama wins because the republicans fail to get organized and united, again. No one cares. Lowest ever ratings on new coverage surrounding the election.

2. Another super-major energy company splits up, a-la ConocoPhillips this year. Prime candidates: Chevron, BP, Exxon.

3. At least one death as a result of terrorist activity at the summer Olympics in London

4. North Korea becomes more and more irrelevant. Iran invades a weakened Iraq, but it ends up not changing anything.

5. The Washington Nationals make the MLB playoffs. WTF?!! The Astros are as bad as last year.

[samagon]

The Texans will win the super bowl, there will be much rejoicing.

[Tumbleweed_Tx]

1) we'll all have a good laugh on Dec 22 when the world doesn't end

2) doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is, they're going to be assassinated to keep Obama in office (literally, or politically... it's going to be the nastiest campaign ever, and 99% of the nastiness will come from the left)

[bachanon]

• Celebrity death prediction: someone from jersey shore
  
• Political prediction: republicans help ensure low voter turnout, as everyone is sick of mindless political talking heads and endless debates
  
• Economic prediction: we will stay the course as it is an election year. much will be talked about, for symbolism sake, but little accomplished. numbers will be inflated or deflated for political purposes.
  
• Technology prediction: more occurrences of "viral" media and political events. the success or failure facebook's timeline and music sharing features will determine whether facebook is replaced by the next new thing or has a longer life. depending on whether or not facebook's timeline and music sharing are user friendly for personal media cloud storage is key.
  
• Earthquake/terrorist attack prediction: determined to make an example of america's degenerate state, terrorists attack reality shows. "housewives of (insert city)", "jersey shore", "kardashians" "real world" and "kendra" are rumored to be getting a lot of intelligence "noise". seismic activity will increase in the orange county area of california.
  

[20thStDad]

• Celebrity death prediction: someone from jersey shore
  
• Political prediction: republicans help ensure low voter turnout, as everyone is sick of mindless political talking heads and endless debates
  
• Economic prediction: we will stay the course as it is an election year. much will be talked about, for symbolism sake, but little accomplished. numbers will be inflated or deflated for political purposes.
  
• Technology prediction: more occurrences of "viral" media and political events. the success or failure facebook's timeline and music sharing features will determine whether facebook is replaced by the next new thing or has a longer life. depending on whether or not facebook's timeline and music sharing are user friendly for personal media cloud storage is key.
  
• Earthquake/terrorist attack prediction: determined to make an example of america's degenerate state, terrorists attack reality shows. "housewives of (insert city)", "jersey shore", "kardashians" "real world" and "kendra" are rumored to be getting a lot of intelligence "noise". seismic activity will increase in the orange county area of california.
  

Are those wishes or predictions? I'm kinda pulling for a few of them, even though I shouldn't be. Ah whatever, there's nothing wrong with hoping for the death of reality tv. Except Moonshiners, that's good stuff.

[Geoff8201]

I hate these, cause most of these predictions are based entirely on what happened this year. Things may happen in '12 that we couldn't even imagine.... but still it's fun to see in one year how far off I am ....

1. With the election, it will be a battle of bad candidate vs bad candidate, but Obama will win over a divided Republican party, and lost votes that could have beaten him, but instead went to a 3rd party candidate (possibly Trump?). Also a slow but steadily improving economy will be in Obama's favor as well as a decent turnout of the "99%".

2. OWS will quickly disappear into oblivion.

3. Earthquake activity will continue up to California.

4. We will see more drought, but no where near as bad as this year. No hurricanes, nothing will even get close.

5. As December 21st 2012 approaches more people will disregard it as being the date of the apocalypse, but we will all be very wary when that day comes, just in case.

6. Dark Knight Rises will be the number 1 film of 2012 and the re-release of Titanic in 3D will sink at the Box Office, but later 3D Blu-ray sales of that film will have good numbers.

7. Iphone 5 and Ipad 3 are released, and nothing new in the way of Facebook and Twitter, except both will stagger along, and lose members as 2012 is the first year many start to move away from social network sites entirely. Tech wise we will also see a preview of the next generation of game consoles from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo.

Edit: 8. Texans will lose just by a hair in the 1st round, but will return next season stronger than ever.

[west20th]

I predict I will become fabulously wealthy selling rapture insurance in anticipation of 12-21-12.

[Subdude]

I'm willing to predict that the economy will continue to improve, albeit at a modest rate. That said, I think there's a decent chance of a recession later in the year due to knock-on effects from Europe, a strengthening dollar and ongoing pressure to reduce government spending (both federal and local). If there is a recession I think it will be a mild one.

On the markets side, financial markets should remain generally strong despite the headlines. There's little indication of another 2007-2008 credit crisis out there. Commodity prices should remain relatively subdued. Equities I think will continue to bounce along for a while with no particular momentum in any direction. Housing prices are or soon will have bottomed, but that doesn't mean to expect any large increases. Inflation and interest rates remain at rock-bottom levels.

On the technology side, Android will continue its business strategy of copying whatever Apple invents, and come out with a Siri equivalent.

This might be going out on a limb, but another skyscraper project for Houston announced.

[Subdude]

Not counting as predictions, but upcoming in 2012:

- The new James Bond movie 'Skyfall' opens in November

- Change in Chinese leadership

- HAIF has its 10th anniversary!

[spiderroller]

^{TWELVE PREDICTIONS OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD}

^{1. We will find out that the Federal Reserve, in coordination with the White House, lent trillions of dollars to European governments beginning in the Fall of 2011. The amount of these international "bailouts" will exceed the combination of all previous U.S. bailouts since the financial crisis began in 2008.}

^{2. Gold will hit $2400/oz. before the Presidential election in November 2012.}

^{3. The DJIA will break its March 2009 lows, and will briefly go below 6,000.}

^{4. Sears will declare bankruptcy. It will not be reorganized - it will cease to exist. Another large retailer (aka Target, Home Depot, etc.) will purchase the Appliance Division. I have no idea what will happen to my Sears Home Protection Plans for my current appliances.}

^{5. As the economy nosedives in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, resulting in millions of layoffs, unemployment approaching 12%, a global banking system on the verge of collapse, chaos and riots in the streets, shouts of impeachment over the international bailouts and actions by the Federal Reserve, Obama wins re-election anyway. Why? – see 6. below.}

^{6. Hillary Clinton replaces Joe Biden as the V.P. candidate on the Democratic ticket. The move flips a large Democratic deficit in the polls and tilts the election. Hillary is seen as the saviour of America after 12 catastrophic years of the 2 worst Presidents in U.S. History. Yes – people vote for the V.P. in the 2012}

^election.

^{7. Apple Computer’s stock hits $600 dollars before year end as it introduces a TV that revolutionizes the industry, leading to a 50% jump in profits from TV sales alone. Competitors like Sony, Samsung and others are left in the dust as every product they have becomes out of date. The TV’s are introduced in several size categories, but all have the exact same features, functions and service. A 46” Apple TV will essentially be a 46” iMac and more. No DVR needed as unlimited recordings are saved in the Cloud. Apple TV owners will no longer need to subscribe to cable TV service. The average household can afford the cost of a 46” Apple TV with 18 months of (no) cable. Voice recognition. Touch screens. Blu Ray built in. Rip your DVD to the Cloud. I could go on, but you get the picture. The products are so successful that 75% of all purchases are made online and shipped. And yes, Apple skyrockets while the DJIA falls 50% earlier in the year. Yes, everyone wants Apple in the DJIA now. Comcast, Verizon, AT&T and others are up in arms as the consumer now only needs internet service to get what the cable companies have spent billions of dollars on, and overcharged you on, for years. Or jack their prices down to stay in business.}

^{8. The stock of Best Buy, essentially the last bricks and mortar electronic retailer in the Country outside of NYC, plummets below $5 during the 4th quarter, leading to a bankruptcy filing before year-end. See 7. above.}

^{9. The Federal Reserve is abolished.}

^{10. Hillary Clinton leads the charge for term limits for all members of Congress and the Senate.}

^{11. Rick Perry is involved in a sex scandal involving young men.}

^{12. Ryan Braun wins his case, and avoids a 50-day suspension, by proving he was taking testosterone for medical reasons alone. Yes, he proves he has "Low T" just like in the commercial. Public opinion is another matter.}

[Subdude]

On the technology side, Android will continue its business strategy of copying whatever Apple invents, and come out with a Siri equivalent.

This one is coming true.

Google planning Siri-like ‘Assistant’ for later this year, says report

Google will release a voice-enabled application for Android that is similar to Apple’s popular Siri by the fourth quarter of 2012, according a report by TechCrunch.

http://venturebeat.com/2012/03/04/google-assistant-siri/

Of course it was a bit of a no-brainer.

[samagon]

The Texans will win the super bowl, there will be much rejoicing.

was this the 2012 prediction thread, I meant 2013...