Galveston's Population

[J.A.S.O.N.]

Does anyone foresee ole Galveston reaching 100,000 year round residents in the next 20 years, if not then why?

[editor]

If it's going to happen, the city's got to work on its infrastructure. Streets, roads, water, and other things need to be seriously upgraded to handle that many people.

[J.A.S.O.N.]

^^^Very true.

[snickers]

is that first pic one of Galveston?

[J.A.S.O.N.]

Yes, the University of Texas Medical Branch campus, and the American National Insurance Company building in the background.

[ricco67]

I'd have to agree with infrastructure...

HOWEVER, I think that a permanent residents of 100k MIGHT be possible in 20yrs IF they take a more active role on being part of the Clear Lake/Houston Metro area.

If you're talking about a TRANSIENT population that would push Galveston over 100K then that will probably happen much sooner. Once again, a major investment in their infrastucture needs to happen and very quickly, including an upgrading of their ability to get on and off the island. That will include seriously upgrading the causeway as well as adding significant rail capacity.

Ricco

[J.A.S.O.N.]

The new causeway is already going up! It looks like its going to be taller than the existing one.

[Montrose1100]

Isn't the population 50,000? Well I remember and old new cast, from Fox (KRIV) and they said that theres already about 100,000 people on the island each day, including the residents. Well they are having ALOT of new high-rise development... I could see it, aslong as Houston continues to grow, so will Galveston.

[westguy]

They should resurrect the Houston-Galveston Inturban railway. Galveston's growth just won't happen without Houston.

[J.A.S.O.N.]

Well, I would like to believe Galveston would reach 100,000, but a lot of replys lately on the board are like "I wouldn't ever consider living on the island". How does Galveston grow in population when more than just infrastructure problems are frowned upon by potential residents?

[jmancuso]

if galveston wasn't so run down (no offense to anyone that lives there), i would have no qualms about living there one bit. i like the subdued pace as well as its preservation of old architecture. a few qualities houston falls short on. galeveston just seems so neglected which is unfortunate becuase the city has immense potential.

[Montrose1100]

Well, I would like to believe Galveston would reach 100,000, but a lot of replys lately on the board are like "I wouldn't ever consider living on the island".  How does Galveston grow in population when more than just infrastructure problems are frowned upon by potential residents?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I mean, alotta people talk shiz-at about Houston, but there still seems to be a population of 2,000,000 and strong... Look at all of our streets, the worst pot holes I have ever seen, that havn't been fixed in years...

[k5jri radio]

A message, posted in 2004, speculates on the possibility of the City of Galveston, TX reaching a year-round population of 100,000 within 20 years (the year 2024). The year-round population of the City of Galveston peaked at approximately 60,000, but later declined to approximately 50,000.

However, Galveston County, TX as a whole has had steady population growth in the areas adjacent to Houston. TX. As a result, League City and other Galveston County cities near or adjacent to metro Houston (Harris County) are examples of that steady population growth. League City is currently the most populous city in Galveston County. As of 2024, Galveston County has a total population of more than 360,000.  

[Reefmonkey]

Thanks for resurrecting this thread, good to look at it again with a 20 year retrospective on that prognostication. In 2004 I would have guessed no, the city of Galveston would not get to 100,000. Limited employment opportunities on the island would mean most would have to commute to the mainland, and all that traffic across the causeway (or San Luis Pass bridge for those working in Freeport/Lake Jackson) would make for a brutal lifestyle if that many people had moved to the island. Then Hurricane Ike really put the kibosh on growth. The residential real estate situation east of Moody Gardens isn't so great. Only so many people have the money or to fix up an old Victorian, and deal with the fact that your sparkling restoration is still surrounded by some pretty sketchy rundown property, and then once you get into the 30s and higher, run down Victorians with potential give way to small early post-war houses with no charm and a lot of crime till you get to Offatt's Bayou. Regentrification would be a very steep hill to climb. Around Offatts Bayou and Moody Gardens are some 60s-70s era neighborhoods with turnaround potential, but once you get out there, the people with the wherewithall to invest what's needed are going to want to be on the beach and bay further west. A few nice middle class neighborhoods like Campeche Cove west of the airport, but not a lot of room to build more, right around them before you get to the end of the seawall, when the cost to build up on stilts above the potential storm surge is going to put homes out of the price range of working/middle class folks. The kind of people who can afford those homes are going to be professionals and knowledge workers who aren't just commuting up to a refinery in Texas City, they'd need to work in Clear Lake, or even Houston proper. Living out on the West End means a 30 minute drive just to get to the Causeway, on top of the time to drive from the island north. No one was going to want to do that every day.

And then Ike made all those considerations moot, anyway. Since the City of Galveston has annexed the whole island except Jamaica Beach, and post Ike made the decision not to expand infrastructure any more past the Seawall, no new significant development to support doubling the population is going to happen.

[hbg.50]

I wonder how many people have 2nd homes in Galveston?  Real estate did great after the pandemic, then took a break in 2023.  I’ve read sales are picking up again in 2024.

[k5jri radio]

If my information is correct, the primary residence (first or primary home location) is where the homeowner is eligible for homeowner's exemption of a portion of the assessed property tax, and eligible to vote. The second or secondary residence (second or secondary home location) is where the same homeowner is not eligible for homeowner's exemption of a portion of the assessed property tax, and not eligible to vote.

[Reefmonkey]

On 2/20/2024 at 8:35 PM, steve1363 said:

I wonder how many people have 2nd homes in Galveston?  Real estate did great after the pandemic, then took a break in 2023.  I’ve read sales are picking up again in 2024.

While people who own 2nd homes aren't counted as part of the official population, it's a good question. Most of those second homes are outside the protection of the seawall, people wanting to be on the beach or a canal on the bay. All the land between FM 3005 and Stewart Road is fairly useless for those purposes, that's why most of it has remained pasture. The city's decision not to invest in expansion of infrastructure on that side of the island is also an impediment to growth. Just looking at a map or satellite image of the island, you might think there is a lot of available land on the bay side of the island, but what those images don't tell you is a lot of the area that looks like land is actually wetlands, unsuitable to build on. Actual dry land may have a lot of marshy wetlands between it and the bay. And then where the wetlands end, the bay may be really shallow for hundreds of yards before you get out into the deeper water in the middle of West Bay. Someone who wants a vacation house on the bay side is going to want bay access for a boat. The costs of digging big new canal developments like Pirate's Cove, Sea Isle, and Jamaica Beach, and then digging channels out into deeper water, along with all the city, state, and Corps of Engineers permitting obstacles that come with that, you're not going to see a lot of new vacation home construction on the bay side.

Beachside, there is a newish development just west of 8 Mile Road that has been building out over the last several years, but it really snatched up the last decent parcels left along that stretch of beach between 8 Mile and Galveston Island State Park where FM 3005 veers inland for a while. The rest of the length of the Island, FM 3005 runs really close to the Gulf, so not a lot of land above the vegetation line to build on. And I wouldn't want to own property between FM 3005 and the Gulf; that part of the island was already naturally eroding away, and climate change is only going to accelerate that.

So I think the potential for new vacation home supply on the island is naturally limited. One thing I wonder about is how many actual individual owners of vacation homes there are. I'd be willing to bet the ratio of individual owners to vacation homes on the island has gone down, as investors have snatched up multiple homes for the Short Term Rental market. It'll be interesting to see which way that trend goes. I could see a lot of the people who snatched up properties when interest rates were low starting to unload them. I know from experience the upkeep costs on a house on that side of the island are a lot higher than your average house on the mainland. The elements, especially the water and salt air, wear stuff out a lot faster, your insurance costs are high, you've got Texas WindStorm cost. And the rental market is so much more seasonal, outside of June-August, and maybe March, you're going to struggle to rent out your properties. I imagine a lot of less experienced STR investors that jumped on the bandwagon when the market was hot during Covid are now trying to unload expensive-to-own properties. And then the Pirates Cove property owners association voted to ban short term rentals in that neighborhood 2 years ago, so even STR owners who were turning a profit had to sell their properties to individual owners who intended to use them as their own vacation home.

[k5jri radio]

The City of Galveston population peaked in 1960 at 67,175. Its current population (estimated 2022) is 53,089. This decline of approximately 14,000 has been attributed to various causal factors including, but not limited to, the shift in housing construction/utilization from structures intended to be primary residences to structures intended to be vacation rentals.  

[k5jri radio]

Several members have identified the significantly higher costs of residential construction, maintenance, and insurance in areas of Galveston Island beyond the western end for the seawall.

The original 3.3 mile segment of the seawall cost almost $1.6 million in 1904 dollars. Given the inflation rate ($1 in 1904 is equivalent to $35.35 in 2024) adding another 3.3 mile segment would cost roughly $56.5 million. This does not include the cost of compensation to property owners displaced by eminent domain, or the construction of the sidewalk, road, and parking areas adjacent to the extended seawall.

 

 

[k5jri radio]

Based on what I have read on the various postings, the round trip distance between the city of Galveston and adjacent population centers is farther than most people are willing to travel on a long term, 5 days per week commute basis, particularly during morning and evening "rush hour" conditions.

Fortunately, a 45-50 mile day trip to Galveston on weekends or other days off from work is a reasonable option for those living in Houston and its adjacent suburban areas.

   

[phillip_white]

https://www.galvnews.com/news/galveston-group-launches-drive-to-build-workforce-housing/article_456806d3-97cc-562b-85f6-3c8bf836bb70.html

 

Quote

More than 60 percent of those who work in Galveston commute across the causeway each day, according to Vision Galveston.

 

[texan]

A Galveston organization, BUILD Galveston, is working to develop workforce housing as roughly 60% of people who work on the island live on the mainland. Finding ways to get these people to live on the island could help stabilize the island's population. The Landing article provides some historical context to the issue. The main roadblock appears to be land availability.

https://houstonlanding.org/theres-not-enough-housing-for-galvestons-growing-workforce-heres-why/

Edited Wednesday at 12:16 PM by texan

[k5jri radio]

Land availability and cost on Galveston Island is, like anywhere else, subject to the ordinary process of supply and demand. The high percentage of people from adjacent areas commuting to and from Galveston is more noticeable due to the distance separating it from the mainland. Unlike Galveston, many other beach resort barrier islands have only a relatively narrow waterway separating them from the mainland.

[k5jri radio]

Based on my experiences with living in a beach community while working in an adjacent large city: [1] Car pooling can offset some of the detriments (boredom, fatigue, fuel costs, wear and tear on your vehicle, etc.) of a long commute to and from work. [2] Car pooling works best if the respective commuters live relatively close to one another, have similar work hours, and are able to "get along" with one another during their daily commutes.

My experiences with living in a beach community and commuting to an adjacent large city may not apply to the converse situation (living in a large city or densely populated suburban area and commuting to work in a beach community).