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U.S. Economic Crisis - All Things Related


lockmat

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It was a long long time ago that a pound of coffee ceased to be a pound and growing smaller every day. Hey, what happened to my font size? Is it getting dark in here?

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It was a long long time ago that a pound of coffee ceased to be a pound and growing smaller every day. Hey, what happened to my font size? Is it getting dark in here?

:D ...And a pound of bacon was 16oz.

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Reducing product size while keeping price the same or raising it has been going on forever, it's not new. Mostly it happens with stuff that comes in boxes, so it doesn't affect me much except for cereal. It's an inflation mind trick. I think the only thing where the opposite is happening is fast food drinks. A current "medium" is bigger than a large used to be, there is no small, and the damn extra large is a half gallon. 64 oz of soft drink and fries, why again are americans fat?

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  • 3 weeks later...

All other things remaining equal, an increase in treasury interest rates should correspond with a decline in stock prices for two reasons: 1) better yields on debt lures capital out of the equity markets and into the bond markets, and 2) increased costs of capital weigh heavily on firms' abilities to engage in new projects or refinance sub-optimal capital structures.

Treasury yields are increasing in spite of massive open market purchases of treasury debt by the Federal Reserve. Stocks prices are also increasing, reflecting a shift of capital out of bond markets and into equities. Commodity prices are also increasing. Equities and commodities are hedges on inflation.

The US Dollar is weakening. Aside from measures of market psychology which have very little predictive power, the only good news is that the rate of job losses seems to have peaked in the January-to-March period and that the rate of loss has declined somewhat since then; that's hardly a symptom of recovery, however.

To me, the indicators point to stagflation.

Anybody that can make a compelling argument otherwise would be appreciated.

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  • 5 months later...

The decade of the 2000s, by the numbers.

http://2010.newsweek.com/essay/party-like-its-1999.html

Not overly impressive, when you look at it.

Not impressive at all. The most relevant 'pocketbook' numbers are wage growth and unemployment (the real unemployemnt number is U6), and by those measures we've lost ground the past 10 years. If you measure revocery in terms of workers/consumers, and not just GDP, it looks like the recovery could last longer than the recession itself.

It seems that the Fed finally got the memo:

Fed Officials Say Recovery Will Be Hampered by Unemployment

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avesmJ.KupaM&pos=5

:blink: Talk about understatement of the year. Have they been living underground, or what??

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The decade of the 2000s, by the numbers.

http://2010.newsweek...e-its-1999.html

Not overly impressive, when you look at it.

No doubt...this has been one of the worst economic cycles in a long time. However, cycles are cycles. In the more global cycle, we saw a massive ramp-up in the 80's and 90's. Cycles do what bicycle wheels do - they go around, but move forward. We felt the road in March. It was painful. Cheers to moving forward!

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No doubt...this has been one of the worst economic cycles in a long time. However, cycles are cycles. In the more global cycle, we saw a massive ramp-up in the 80's and 90's. Cycles do what bicycle wheels do - they go around, but move forward. We felt the road in March. It was painful. Cheers to moving forward!

I'm not so sure this time. Everything we have in modern life is pretty much optimized. The last 100 years:

Industrial Revolution

Aerospace Revolution

Information Technology Revolution

Henry Ford set up a way to mass produce thousands of cars in the early 1900's.

Jet travel became the norm in the 1950's.

The late 80's, 90's we learned how to connect all the world's computers together.

There is nothing left to do. No other sectors to expand or "grow" into. Nothing really left to make better, either.

What we see now is the new normal. We're screwed.

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I'm not so sure this time. Everything we have in modern life is pretty much optimized. The last 100 years:

Industrial Revolution

Aerospace Revolution

Information Technology Revolution

Henry Ford set up a way to mass produce thousands of cars in the early 1900's.

Jet travel became the norm in the 1950's.

The late 80's, 90's we learned how to connect all the world's computers together.

There is nothing left to do. No other sectors to expand or "grow" into. Nothing really left to make better, either.

What we see now is the new normal. We're screwed.

That reminds me of the urban legend that some politicians wanted to close the US Patent Office in the late 1800's because they felt everything important had already been invented.

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I'm not so sure this time. Everything we have in modern life is pretty much optimized. The last 100 years:

Industrial Revolution

Aerospace Revolution

Information Technology Revolution

Henry Ford set up a way to mass produce thousands of cars in the early 1900's.

Jet travel became the norm in the 1950's.

The late 80's, 90's we learned how to connect all the world's computers together.

There is nothing left to do. No other sectors to expand or "grow" into. Nothing really left to make better, either.

What we see now is the new normal. We're screwed.

Think about every revolutionary industrial advance that has ever been devised. Do you think that it could have been fathomed just a decade before-hand, even by the individuals credited with taking part in the advance? I don't think so.

Btw, on a personal note, you are in the wrong line of work to be saying that what humanity can do to optimize its existence it has already done.

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There are still plenty of things that will get made, new technologies, etc. The vast majority of humans on this planet, however, will not be able to afford to buy any of them.

The debt bubble is a sign that markets have been reduced to eating themsleves. That, I believe, is very much the new normal.

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There are still plenty of things that will get made, new technologies, etc. The vast majority of humans on this planet, however, will not be able to afford to buy any of them.

The debt bubble is a sign that markets have been reduced to eating themsleves. That, I believe, is very much the new normal.

The vast majority of humans may be struggling just to survive due to unchecked population growth and limited availability of resources.

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The vast majority of humans may be struggling just to survive due to unchecked population growth and limited availability of resources.

Ah, yes...the Malthusian dilemma. Except that as countries industrialize their population growth rates decline, eventually going negative.

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  • 3 weeks later...

A rich investment banker in Houston is trying to get his son's teacher fired for criticizing bankers:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6712738/Barclays-banker-Hugh-McGee-wants-sons-teacher-fired-for-sleazeball-comment.html

The article doesn't mention that before he was head of Barclays Investment Banking he was head of Lehman Investment Banking. Is he (or rather his industry) beyond reproach? Are these Kinkaid's "core values" as he states?

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