Hurricane Emily

[RedScare]

It may be a bit early to start talking about this, since even the TV stations haven't gone into panic mode yet, but some of the weather forums are starting to predict a Texas hit. Many of them show extreme South Texas getting popped, but several show Emily aiming at Central coast, and a couple show a slightly west to slightly east Houston hit.

Currently, Emily is at 115 mph winds, and any Texas landfall is still 5 to 6 days away.

[Talbot]

I hope that it doesn't hit here, but it looks like its heading straight for us. You think that the rain we are getting now is the first of Emily?

[kjb434]

The rain we are getting now has absolutely nothing to do with email. It is below Cuba right now. Right now we are getting typical summer thunderstorms and weather patterns.

My fear is that hurricanes generally turn to the right along there path and that would steer it towards us. The hope we would have is for a high move over us to stop the storm from heading our way.

[Subdude]

The rain we are getting now has absolutely nothing to do with email

I would have to agree.

[RedScare]

^^^

Not laughing with ya, kjb, laughing at ya. (jk)

Latest Hurricane Center chart has Houston in the 5 day range. Predictions that far out are notoriously inaccurate, but the possibilities mean we should at least make a mental note of how many cans of beans and water we would need.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...3302.shtml?5day

On an unrelated note, when Alicia came through in 1983, I lived next door to 2 UH coeds who were scared and asked to stay with my roomamate and I One was a Foley's model. I have loved hurricanes ever since.

[kjb434]

I'm not extremely worried, but just looking at old trends.

[editor]

The latest NWS prediction has Emily headed to Mexico.

As for the accuracy of the 5-day forecasts, that remains to be seen. They started the 3-day forecasts in the 1990's and found they were much more accurate than expected. So they added 5-day forecasts to see how they pan out. I believe this is only the second or third year of 5-day forecasts, so it's too soon to tell.

The accuracty of NWS forecasts vary greatly from region to region. Houston's forecasts are much much more accurate than the ones for places like Nebraska or Wyoming. That's because, like any industry, the new kids start in the smaller markets and as they gain experience and knowledge they move into larger markets. The larger cities tend to have much better forecasting that smaller towns -- with some exceptions. Chicago's accuracy rate is absolutely horrible. I've talked to a lot of meteorologists about it, and they claim that it's harder to predict the weather for that city. I say "bullshit." It can't be any harder than Houston where you have the Gulf of Mexico, the west Texas desert, winds from every direction, and no long-range radar south of the border. In my experience, the most accurate weather forecasts were in Cincinnati, with Houston a close second.

[Subdude]

Well, from May through September it is pretty easy to do an accurate Houston weather forecast: High of 96, low of 72, 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Repeat daily for five months!

[kjb434]

Throw the 40% up to 50% and they'll never have to guess if it will rain again. You win all the time.

The thing to remember if hit between Houston and Brownsville we will get some rain out it it since the northeast quadrant is the worst for rain.

[Talbot]

it's good to see that it may be heading towards mexico, bit it still looks as though we may get a bit of rain from Emily.

[2112]

It's official. We're all going to DIE.

[kjb434]

^^^

I guess you've been watching channel 2

[YakuzaIce]

^^^

I guess you've been watching channel 2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I turned it on today and they said something to the effect that they don't use scare tactics and then right after they show short clips of people in high winds and waist high water. Before they even got to the news part.

[RedScare]

You know, if they had Dominique out there in the wind and rain doing a story in a white shirt, I could probably deal with it, but instead, we'll have Wayne Dolcefino blowing down the street...ruins the whole effect.

[YakuzaIce]

tsk tsk, you need to read this thread.

http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...?showtopic=2762

Well it would be funny having Dolcefino blowing down the street.

[RedScare]

Whoops. My bad. I'll keep my fantasies to myself.

[YakuzaIce]

Whoops.  My bad.  I'll keep my fantasies to myself. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LOL

But seriously I hope that Emily does not hit houston. So does anyone think that we will get alot of rain from Emily (Allison)? According to kjb if it hits south of us we will be the worst for rain, but I guess as long as it doesn't stop over us like allison it shouldn't be as bad.

[ToolMan]

I'm sure women have fantasies about Wayne Dolcefino all the time. I won't get offended.

[RedScare]

I'm sure women have fantasies about Wayne Dolcefino all the time.  I won't get offended.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

At least, that's what Wayne told me.

[pineda]

I'm sure women have fantasies about Wayne Dolcefino all the time.

ROTFL!

[kjb434]

LOL,

as long as conditions don't exist to stall the storm we won't get the 30" of rain like Allision.

[MidtownCoog]

I remember seeign Wayne propping himself up on the bar at The Pig all the time.

The ladies were around him like he was Elvis.

[RedScare]

^^^

Dead Elvis or Live Elvis?

[MidtownCoog]

Drunk sweaty Elvis.

That place was always humid.

[kjb434]

dead elvis

[skwatra]

there were several hurricanes with a 5-day track to head straight towards the brownsville area, then turned north suddenly.

remember claudette?

claudette tracking graphics archive

they thought we were in the clear, then suddenly houston was in danger. enough that we shut down mission control and handed ops to the russians, and believe me we hate doing that. it ended up hitting well south of us, but far north of brownsville.

they do the best they can considering all the factors, and they usually do pretty good but you never know.

not trying to scare anyone, point is no one has any idea what's going to happen with emily regarding strike locations, not for a few more days at least.

if it heads our way, i say we evacuate to new orleans. there were more LA plates at the galleria that weekend then TX. but it took my friend 10+ hours to get here...

[RedScare]

Weather Channel says Emily is now 150 mph, biggest hurricane ever for July.

Jamica looks like it will avoid a direct hit, but the Yucatan won't be so lucky. South Padre is likely to get the dirty side. I wonder how well So. Padre's high rises will handle a Cat 3 or 4 storm.

[ssullivan]

I'm supposed to be flying to McAllen Monday afternoon for work next week. Given the fact I've already had one week stuck at home with very little to do this month, and a client cancellation next month, I'm really hoping over the next 48 hours the forecast track points it away from the Rio Grande Valley. Otherwise, I'll either be told not to go, and I'll be stuck at home all week and lose billable hours (which does affect my bonus) or I'll get down there and have the client cancel on me and be stuck in a hotel waiting out the storm because there's no flights to get home on. Either way, I won't be happy.

I'm hoping this one goes into Mexico, well south of the border.

[Heights2Bastrop]

Since we are on Daylight Savings Time, how many hours difference are we from Zulu Time?

[RedScare]

You really won't know until late Monday or even Tuesday if it will hit Brownsville. Even if it is not a direct hit, I bet the airlines won't fly in after a certain point, since at best, Brownsville will still be on the dirty side.

The 2:00 pm update has winds at 155 mph. Somebody is going to get pounded by this thing, probably Cancun/Cozumel.