rsb320 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 I understand the highway being lifted right behind a seawall - but we aren't on Galveston Island. We are miles away in the Clear Lake area. And my mother is right by the Gulf Freeway - told to evacuate for Rita. I just can't see it. And I've been through three hurricanes so far if you count Rita, which I kinda do. Oh, I see. No, we are not going to have a tidal wave, like in 'Deep Impact' that floods from the east coast to the Ohio River Valley. Is Mom in an official evac zone now. I know they switched up some things after Rita. I do know someone in Clear Lake Shores that must leave before the tides get to be 3' because exit of the area is blocked. But all the way to I-45? I just can see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intencity77 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 With all the different tracking models out there, I asked myself which one was the most reliable. I came across this article describing the differences in the models. It says the GFDL is most accurate. Currently, that model is showing a track towards Galveston.Understanding the different hurricane models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highway6 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 With all the different tracking models out there, I asked myself which one was the most reliable. I came across this article describing the differences in the models. It says the GFDL is most accurate. Currently, that model is showing a track towards Galveston.Understanding the different hurricane modelsChron's Sci guy agrees and says the GFDL is the one the NHC puts the most faith in.However, he also said in the chat that there were two others, ECMWF and the UKMET, that have performed the best so far for Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsb320 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 At 4:00, Still 100 mph and moving NW at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 At 4:00, Still 100 mph and moving NW at 8.I'm sure they don't update the tracks that fast. I think the next advisory comes out at 6 PM or 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arisegundo Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 We're at tri-hourly (is that a word?) position advisories, with the next model runs out at 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
editor Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 I'm sure they don't update the tracks that fast. I think the next advisory comes out at 6 PM or 7 PM.I think it's possible to do more updates during the day when the visible satellite images can see the eye. Overnight, I think it's limited to hurricane hunter trips.One of the meteos on HAIF probably knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 I think it's possible to do more updates during the day when the visible satellite images can see the eye. Overnight, I think it's limited to hurricane hunter trips.One of the meteos on HAIF probably knows for sure.No, they update depending on how far the storm is from landfall... has nothing to do w/ day or night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 A Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now. No two storms are the same, but the same conditions for Ike happened with Rita. Ike is at the EXACT same spot now (three days before landfall) that Rita was. In fact, both were Wednesdays. This was about the time people started leaving Houston and it was announced we had no school for a week (Katy ISD). Check this out (Rita is the lighter shade): Rita historical is inline with Ike, too: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 A Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now. No two storms are the same, but the same conditions for Ike happened with Rita. Ike is at the EXACT same spot now (three days before landfall) that Rita was. In fact, both were Wednesdays. This was about the time people started leaving Houston and it was announced we had no school for a week (Katy ISD).Check this out (Rita is the lighter shade): Rita historical is inline with Ike, too: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml .... and Rita ended up going east of Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jax Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Thanks for the link. This is pretty interesting. This is the history of all of the NHC predictions for Ike so far. You can see how the last few frames have shifted north.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graph...9/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 .... and Rita ended up going east of Houston.So what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 So what do you think?I'm thinking Bay City, TX to Lake Charles for a landfall... man this has been a tough storm to forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 .... and Rita ended up going east of Houston.You don't get that lucky twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 You don't get that lucky twice.We sort of did with Lili back in 2003 I believe. Then we did with Rita. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 They're predicting a category 4 hurricane from this storm up until landfall. If it gets picked up and pulled north, what would prevent that from taking it straight to Galveston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 They're predicting a category 4 hurricane from this storm up until landfall. If it gets picked up and pulled north, what would prevent that from taking it straight to Galveston?Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 This is worse than Rita since its wind radius is already 205 miles. Rita was only 185 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
memebag Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 They're predicting a category 4 hurricane from this storm up until landfall. If it gets picked up and pulled north, what would prevent that from taking it straight to Galveston? It's a hurricane. Nothing but air pressure can stop it from going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arisegundo Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Galveston's mayor and this Emergency guy are really on the defensive about not ordering a mandatory evacuation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Galveston's mayor and this Emergency guy are really on the defensive about not ordering a mandatory evacuation...Galveston has just ordered a mandatory evacuation for the West End, and is providing shelters on the island for those that choose to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westguy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Galveston has just ordered a mandatory evacuation for the West End, and is providing shelters on the island for those that choose to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trae Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Never realized there were that many cabs in Galveston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20thStDad Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Sorry, Dad, but I agree with Rammer. Keep your wimpyaz home until those that must evac can. A tree can fall on your house pretty much any month throughout the year as the result of a turnader.I've been through so many storms that I just go into H-mode and do my preps and hunker down (and drink, and drink, etc.)Like I said I'm not going anywhere. And if people are so concerned about evacuating and being able to get out in an orderly fashion, they should leave right now when it's easy.And anyway, my response was more directed at him calling people cowards, not the idea of a staged evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakdad Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 We are in Katy and I think we will look for a place to run. Mainly because of power outages. Right now we don't know where to head. We have two small dogs to take with us. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HtownWxBoy Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 We are in Katy and I think we will look for a place to run. Mainly because of power outages. Right now we don't know where to head. We have two small dogs to take with us. Any ideas?Denver. ha ha j/k... but seriously... it's hard to say for sure right now... since Ike is forecast to lift towards the north after landfall heading north won't necessarily keep you out of danger... at this point it seems like west is the way to go... towards San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 I just got through watching The Weather Channel. OMG, have you guys seen their moisture radar? It is BEAUTIFUL. They have this high altitude camera that shows the swirls over time of the moisture content.I had not seen it before, so it might be old news, but wow ... the storms in the Gulf and in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico look gorgeous (if you can say that about a storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Galveston has just ordered a mandatory evacuation for the West End, and is providing shelters on the island for those that choose to stay.My parents have decided to stay put in Galveston. Not in a shelter, though. I think they're crazy.Personally, I'm tempted to take any days off of work that I can and go camping in West Texas like I did during Rita. Never mind the storm, I need a vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 My parents have decided to stay put in Galveston. Not in a shelter, though. I think they're crazy.Personally, I'm tempted to take any days off of work that I can and go camping in West Texas like I did during Rita. Never mind the storm, I need a vacation!The Chronicle is reporting that Galveston ordered a voluntary evacuation of the West End, so I retract my earlier statement.http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993388.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.