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Trae

Hurricane Ike

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This looks to be the next storm to hit the Gulf coast (Hanna not a threat).

at200809_5day.gif

at200809_sat.jpg

at200809_model090609d.gif

Edited by Trae

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The way it's headed. Plus, Gustav will be out of the Gulf. once it gets closer to the Bahamas, it is expected to take a Katrina like path.

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Look at that "cone of uncertainty", at this point, guesses are it could hit anywhere from Georgia to Central America. Give it some more time until you start proclaiming that it will hit the Gulf Coast.

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Look at that "cone of uncertainty", at this point, guesses are it could hit anywhere from Georgia to Central America. Give it some more time until you start proclaiming that it will hit the Gulf Coast.

Computer models have been different. Either it goes straight into the Gulf, or hits Florida first on its way there. There is one model that has it going up and hitting the Carolinas though.

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SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A

LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.

THE

DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS

BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL

MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST

TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS

FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND

VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

They seem fairly confident that it won't gain much latitude, which would take it to the Gulf of Mexico. Those storms that track that far are usually threats to the CONUS. It would have to be lower for it to hit Mexico.

Edited by westguy

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Whenever I hear the name Ike, I think Ike and Tina Turner.

I have a feeling this is gonna be a real muthashutyomouth!

Just because Ike Turner beat the snot out of Tina, that doesn't make this a bad storm!

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Just because Ike Turner beat the snot out of Tina, that doesn't make this a bad storm!

Ike got pissed and turned into a hurricane.

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Whenever I hear the name Ike, I think Ike and Tina Turner.

I think of Ike Broflovski, Kyle's Canadian little brother on South Park.

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Okay, I need to check the news. Been in a meeting all afternoon.

Ike is a Cat 4.

SAT_ATL_WVENH_ANI-2.gif

Edited by Trae

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I think of Ike Broflovski, Kyle's Canadian little brother on South Park.

DIfference is, Ike will be doing the kicking of the baby this time !

Edited by TJones

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DIfference is, Ike will be doing the kicking of the baby this time !

Did Gustav remnant weather patterns bring our nice weather we're having? Has anyone noticed how cool it was last night/this morning?

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Did Gustav remnant weather patterns bring our nice weather we're having? Has anyone noticed how cool it was last night/this morning?

It's been great and unusual! Whatever's causing it, keep it coming!

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Did Gustav remnant weather patterns bring our nice weather we're having? Has anyone noticed how cool it was last night/this morning?

Macbro, that was actually a small cool front that is what actually pushed Gustav into Louisiana and spared us. Unfortunately it will be back to normal tomorrow or the next day.

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I think Hanna would've churned up a bunch of cold water, preventing Ike from doing what Andrew did. OTOH, Haiti's president has indicated that the storm may have already killed thousands, so it's not really a blessing.

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Macbro, that was actually a small cool front that is what actually pushed Gustav into Louisiana and spared us. Unfortunately it will be back to normal tomorrow or the next day.

Yay! I went outside this morning and it was cool. I hate that. Bring the hot back.

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I went outside this morning and it was cool. I hate that. Bring the hot back.

I knew it! You are the devil.

cool, ahhhhh. This is the second morning I was able to open the kitchen window.

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I think Hanna would've churned up a bunch of cold water, preventing Ike from doing what Andrew did. OTOH, Haiti's president has indicated that the storm may have already killed thousands, so it's not really a blessing.

Ike looks like it will do some major damage wherever it goes. Brace yourself Florida. I'm nervous for them.

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I knew it! You are the devil.

That's beside the point. I'm not ready for swimming season to end yet. MemeDaughter and I are still pretending to be otters. Tuesday we were captured by humans and sold to a zoo and then a circus.

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Houston's not out of the crosshairs of Ike yet, but it's looking more like New Orleans might have to go through another evacuation.

084015W_sm.gif

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Ike's regained Category 4 quickly. The NHC is going to have to shift the track towards the western Gulf of Mexico (and Houston) because its hard to predict when the hurricane is going to make its northward turn. We could have a hurricane here next week.

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Ike will be a large hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. The models have unanimously shifted to the west, and NHC has revised their track to point at Houston.

at200809_model090609d.gif

Editor, can you move this topic up since it is a real threat to this city?

Edited by westguy

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It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.

Edited by Trae

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At this point it is way to early to count out nola or anywhere else. If you research the nhc.noaa.gov site you will learn that the 3 day models are really about as far as you should really look - the 4th and 5th day on the computer models are much less predictable (notice how the track on the 4th and 5th day is dashed and has a different "cone" around it). At this point, the 3 day track places it just at the entrance of the GOM. Meaning everyone from Florida to the Yucatan should be watchful.

But I am going to go to bed tonight and wish it all just disappears. If I've been a good girl, then there will be no storm tomorrow. If I've been a bad girl, then, well, I deserve a few lashes :-)

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It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.

Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.

Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts.

Edited by TheNiche

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A seasoned meteorologist told me that the only way to accurately predict where hurricanes were going was to check the barometric pressure of the areas likely to be hit. The one with the lowest barometric pressure would be the one to get the hurricane. Has worked like a charm so far!

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Trae, I would've thought that you would've figured out by now that you aren't qualified to be weatherman.

Your biggest shortcoming is a lack of understanding of statistical concpepts.

What the hell are you talking about? That cone of uncertainty and computer models (mostly computer models) covers the cities I named more now, than NOLA. You make zero sense.

Edited by editor
Edited by Editor to remove profanity and personal attack.

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Calm down, boys.

:lol:

Yeah, this is a weather thread, not a politics thread.

;)

Interestingly, the statistical wind probabilities on the NHC website still show a higher probability of tropical force winds in Pensacola and New Orleans than the Texas coast. However, a closer look at the chart shows the probabilities within certain time frames. Since the Texas coast is farther away, the NHC is not calculating the odds of storm force winds outside of 120 hours. As the Texas coast is included in the 5 day forecast, look for the numbers to increase, and likely exceed those of the northern Gulf Coast.

In the spirit of bipartisanship, I declare BOTH of you correct. :)

Source?

Why certainly!

Wind Speed Probabilities

Edited by RedScare

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The latest track is not looking good for Texas at this point, but we're still ~1 week away from landfall. Things can change.

Edited by jm1fd

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The latest track is not looking good for Texas at this point, but we're still ~1 week away from landfall. Things can change.

From the NHC forecast discussion...

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY

WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS

THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE

RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A

CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS

ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE

TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF

THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH

AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills".

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It's interesting how some hurricanes can cut across the narrow width of Cuba and lose lots of strength while others can run the entire length of the island and act like nothing happened.

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From the NHC forecast discussion...
IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

That sounds like weatherspeak for "We kinda think it's heading towards Texas, but it's to early to run for the hills".

Sounds a lot like what I was telling Trae last night. They don't know where its going yet. Uncertainties are still ridiculously high when you consider how much difference even 50 miles can make at landfall.

Are some areas at higer risk than others? Yes. But at this point, the cone of uncertainty is so wide that even the relevently-small stretch of coast with the highest landfall probabilities may not exceed 10%.

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