Houston's True Population?

[C2H]

I know this issue probably has been brought up but i wanted to ask the question directly. And i thought if i started a new thread, i'd get a quicker answer.

What's metro Houston's true population. I know that back in 2000, they used to consider the Houston MSA to be Houston/ Galveston/ Brazoria. since then, they've reconfigured it to be Houston/Baytown/ Sugarland.

But what would Houston's CMSA be if we included The Woodlands, Galveston, Sugarland, Brazoria, Baytown all together. I think DFW counts Sherman/Dennison in their population numbers. If they can do it, why can't Houston?

[Houston19514]

I know this issue probably has been brought up but i wanted to ask the question directly. And i thought if i started a new thread, i'd get a quicker answer.

What's metro Houston's true population. I know that back in 2000, they used to consider the Houston MSA to be Houston/ Galveston/ Brazoria. since then, they've reconfigured it to be Houston/Baytown/ Sugarland.

But what would Houston's CMSA be if we included The Woodlands, Galveston, Sugarland, Brazoria, Baytown all together. I think DFW counts Sherman/Dennison in their population numbers. If they can do it, why can't Houston?

The Woodlands, Galveston, Sugarland, Brazoria, and Baytown are already included in Houston's Metropolitan Area population. The inclusion or exclusion of cities and counties are determined by commuting patterns, etc. by the Census Bureau. You can find a full, sleep-inducing definition of the methodology at www.census.gov

(FWIW, Sherman/Denison have recently been added to the D-FW Consolidated Metropolitan Area. Houston's CMA also includes Huntsville; I would think Beaumont-Pt Arthur-Orange would be added to Houston's CMA in the not-too-distant future)

[Mark F. Barnes]

I know this issue probably has been brought up but i wanted to ask the question directly. And i thought if i started a new thread, i'd get a quicker answer.

What's metro Houston's true population. I know that back in 2000, they used to consider the Houston MSA to be Houston/ Galveston/ Brazoria. since then, they've reconfigured it to be Houston/Baytown/ Sugarland.

But what would Houston's CMSA be if we included The Woodlands, Galveston, Sugarland, Brazoria, Baytown all together. I think DFW counts Sherman/Dennison in their population numbers. If they can do it, why can't Houston?

Try using the search engine at the top of the page, took 2 seconds got 21 results returned

http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...ston+population

Edited October 30, 2006 by Mark F. Barnes

[JasonDFW]

But what would Houston's CMSA be if we included The Woodlands, Galveston, Sugarland, Brazoria, Baytown all together. I think DFW counts Sherman/Dennison in their population numbers. If they can do it, why can't Houston?

The 6 million person DFW metro estimate does not include Sherman/Dennison. Sherman etc... are only included in the CMSA, which is a combination of multiple MSAs.

Jason

[Houston19514]

The 6 million person DFW metro estimate does not include Sherman/Dennison. Sherman etc... are only included in the CMSA, which is a combination of multiple MSAs.

Jason

Jason, Jason, Jason. . . The only "6 million person DFW metro estimate" that the Census Bureau has made is indeed the CSA (Combined Statistical Area), which, as you concede does include Sherman/Dennison [sic].

D-FW CSA estimated population as of July 1, 2005 (the latest available): 6,171,301

D-FW MSA estimated population as of July 1, 2005 (the latest available): 5,819,475

You can get to all of the estimates from here.

I know, I know, the North Texas Council of Governments or some such group has put out their own "estimate" above 6,000,000, but as you also know, the geographical area covered by that estimate is not the same area as is covered in the Census Bureau's definition of the MSA.

[C2H]

appreciate the info folks. It was just something i had kind of wondered about.

I read on this forum one time that The Woodlands and Conroe weren't configured into Houston's population so that's what made me ask. And the damn government keeps changing the MSA sequence.

Some sources even put Houston as the 7th largest MSA in U.S. now with the new configuration which puts H-Town further up the ladder from 10th place MSA!

[houstonmacbro]

i thought houston was 4th largest city? now it's 7th?

that sux.

[ProHouston]

Here we go getting confused again. This always happens in these discussions. Houston (municipal city limits) is the 4th largest city. However, the metropolitan area (surrounding suburbs included) is lower on the list.

[C2H]

i thought houston was 4th largest city? now it's 7th?

that sux.

I was talking about metro, many think City population seems meaningless these days.

Edited October 31, 2006 by C2H

[GhostDog]

Metro Area population is what really counts...

I mean really all the people in the area essentially consider themselves a part of a metro area...

If someone from Sugarland were telling someone from another place where they lived that person would say where? OH- Houston...cool...

[houstonmacbro]

Metro Area population is what really counts...

I mean really all the people in the area essentially consider themselves a part of a metro area...

If someone from Sugarland were telling someone from another place where they lived that person would say where? OH- Houston...cool...

so, by this analysis, dallas metro area (fort worth, las colinas, irvington, etc.) is larger than houston metro (sugarland, galveston, woodlands, kingwood, etc.)?

[ProHouston]

so, by this analysis, dallas metro area (fort worth, las colinas, irvington, etc.) is larger than houston metro (sugarland, galveston, woodlands, kingwood, etc.)?

Yes, DFW is bigger than Houston because it includes two large cities in the metro whereas Houston has no other big city to include.

[JasonDFW]

Some sources even put Houston as the 7th largest MSA in U.S. now with the new configuration which puts H-Town further up the ladder from 10th place MSA!

I believe you've incorrectly analyzed some data you've seen. If you'd send me links I will clear things up. I've never seen estimates vary much at all. Houston is the 7th largest MSA and the 10th largest combined MSA. Houston should get passed up by Atlanta (depending on the Katrina effect) but it will never drop to 11th because it will pass up Detroit by then.

Yes, DFW is bigger than Houston because it includes two large cities in the metro whereas Houston has no other big city to include.

It is all opinion, but I think there are 5 big cities in DFW (5 of the 10 largest in Texas are in DFW) and 1 or 2 in Houston. I don't know what the actual number is in Houston because you guys have those unusual CDP's down there which don't always show up in city ranks.

Jason

[Houston19514]

I believe you've incorrectly analyzed some data you've seen. If you'd send me links I will clear things up. I've never seen estimates vary much at all. Houston is the 7th largest MSA and the 10th largest combined MSA. Houston should get passed up by Atlanta (depending on the Katrina effect) but it will never drop to 11th because it will pass up Detroit by then.

Jason

Jason, you are correct that the estimates are pretty straight-forward and unvarying. Houston is indeed the 7th largest MSA (D-FW is 5th) and the 10th largest CSA (D-FW is 8th). At current trends, Atlanta CSA will not pass the Houston CSA until JUST after the 2010 census (of course one or both of the ATL and HOU CSA's may be changed geographhically by then, throwing all projections out the window). Houston will probably have passed Detroit when they release 2006 numbers.

FWIW, if current trends continue, after the 2010 census, I would expect the top 5 MSA's to be NYC, LA, Chicago, D-FW, Houston.

It is all opinion, but I think there are 5 big cities in DFW (5 of the 10 largest in Texas are in DFW) and 1 or 2 in Houston. I don't know what the actual number is in Houston because you guys have those unusual CDP's down there which don't always show up in city ranks.

Jason

Acknowledging that it is indeed little more than opinion, I have to disagree that there are 5 "big cities" in DFW and more than 1 in the Houston metro. In my opinion, the only "big cities" in D-FW are Dallas and Fort Worth. All the others, no matter how big their population, are essentially suburban in character and will never have the central cores that could arguably make them "big cities" in themselves. Likewise, the only "big city" in the Houston metro is Houston.

Edited November 1, 2006 by Houston19514

[ProHouston]

Acknowledging that it is indeed little more than opinion, I have to disagree that there are 5 "big cities" in DFW and more than 1 in the Houston metro. In my opinion, the only "big cities" in D-FW are Dallas and Fort Worth. All the others, no matter how big their population, are essentially suburban in character and will never have the central cores that could arguably make them "big cities" in themselves. Likewise, the only "big city" in the Houston metro is Houston.

Yes, that's what I was referring to as well.

[RedScare]

It is all opinion, but I think there are 5 big cities in DFW (5 of the 10 largest in Texas are in DFW)

Jason

That is correct. In fact, as of January 1, 2007, DFW will henceforth be known as DAFWIP.

Please tell all of your friends.

[C2H]

I believe you've incorrectly analyzed some data you've seen. If you'd send me links I will clear things up. I've never seen estimates vary much at all. Houston is the 7th largest MSA and the 10th largest combined MSA. Houston should get passed up by Atlanta (depending on the Katrina effect) but it will never drop to 11th because it will pass up Detroit by then.

It is all opinion, but I think there are 5 big cities in DFW (5 of the 10 largest in Texas are in DFW) and 1 or 2 in Houston. I don't know what the actual number is in Houston because you guys have those unusual CDP's down there which don't always show up in city ranks.

Jason

Perhaps you're right. I think i tend to confuse MSA and CSA. I don't think i have a general understanding of the distinction between the two. I thought Houston/Baytown Sugarland was the Houston MSA.

What would be the Houston CSA? Beaumont/ Port Arthur or would it include Bryan./College Station?

Edited November 1, 2006 by C2H

[Houston19514]

Perhaps you're right. I think i tend to confuse MSA and CSA. I don't think i have a general understanding of the distinction between the two. I thought Houston/Baytown Sugarland was the Houston MSA.

What would be the Houston CSA? Beaumont/ Port Arthur or would it include Bryan./College Station?

The Houston MSA (the official Census Bureau name is "Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown") consists of the following counties:

Harris

Chambers

Fort Bend

Galveston

Montgomery (which includes The Woodlands and Conroe)

Liberty

Austin

Brazoria

San Jacinto

Waller

The Houston CSA (the official Census Bureau name is "Houston-Baytown-Huntsville") includes all of the MSA counties listed above, PLUS

Matagorda and

Walker counties (which brings in Huntsville)

Neither Beaumont/Pt Arthur nor Bryan/College Station are included in either the MSA or the CSA.

The 2005 population estimates were as follows:

MSA: 5,280,077

CSA: 5,380,661

[C2H]

thanks 19514.

But everyone, Is it true that Atlanta CSA is supposed to pass up Houston?

[Trae]

No. I won't happen. Atlanta is actually slowing in metro growth, while Houston has picked up a bit. They will always be neck and neck, with Houston ahead.

[Houston19514]

thanks 19514.

But everyone, Is it true that Atlanta CSA is supposed to pass up Houston?

It's really just a matter of mathematics. During the past five years, the Atlanta CSA has been growing at average of 133,000 per year, while the Houston CSA has been growing an average of 108,000 per year, according to the Cnsus estimates.

IF we assume that those trends will continue for the next five years (ie., that Atlanta continues to grow by 25,000 each year MORE than Houston grows), the Atlanta and Houston CSAs should be essentially tied at the time of the 2010 Census, and Atlanta would overtake Houston shortly after. (This of course ignores the Katrina-induced boost in Houston's population and any additions to either area's CSA (such as a possible addition of Beaumont-Pt Arther to Houston's CSA.))

No. I won't happen. Atlanta is actually slowing in metro growth, while Houston has picked up a bit. They will always be neck and neck, with Houston ahead.

Do you have a source for the statement about Atlanta's slowing growth?

[TheNiche]

Do you have a source for the statement about Atlanta's slowing growth?

Over the past five years (Sep. 2001 to Sep. 2006), the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA has added on average 19,160 jobs per year. The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land MSA has averaged 27,620 jobs per year. Source is Bureau of Labor Statistics. Assuming that the ratio of the number of employed persons to all persons is approximately the same in both metropolitan areas, Houston would be expected to retain or exceed its 2000 population rank in the 2010 census.

Edited November 2, 2006 by TheNiche

[houstonfella]

The census figures in 2010 will tell the tale. Houston is growing like a weed. I would be surprised if Atlanta's metro becomes larger. If, in fact, that happens, would it be a problem? Not. Energy will take care of Houston's growth for the next 100 years.

[houstonmacbro]

and illegal immigration.

i seriously doubt the numbers i've seen of 100,000 - 200,000 illegals in houston. honestly, i think that number is closer to 700,000.

[JasonDFW]

Over the past five years (Sep. 2001 to Sep. 2006), the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA has added on average 19,160 jobs per year.

That time period is a bit deceiving because in the 3 years before you started your tally Atlanta metro gained 1/4 million jobs.

That is correct. In fact, as of January 1, 2007, DFW will henceforth be known as DAFWIP.

Please tell all of your friends.

You joke, but just last week Denton announced it wants to be included in the name. Apparently all this "Dallas-Fort Worth" stuff makes them feel left out.

I see what you mean Houston19514. I do think Irving is on its way to that status if not there now, despite its smaller population than some of the others. It's CBD (Las Colinas) rivals those of some other larger central cities. It's not nearly in a Houston class of course.

Jason

Edited November 2, 2006 by JasonDFW

[scarface]

That time period is a bit deceiving because in the 3 years before you started your tally Atlanta metro gained 1/4 million jobs.

Jason

i thought the illegal immigrants are being required to be sent back? Or is Bush's immigration law meant to prevent future immigration?

[TheNiche]

That time period is a bit deceiving because in the 3 years before you started your tally Atlanta metro gained 1/4 million jobs.

Perhaps, but why would the years 2000, 1999, and 1998 matter if the last census count was in 2000 and if I'm trying to derive post-2000 population projections? And I might've gone back to the start of 2001 for the utmost precision, but comparing like months prevents seasonal distortions.