Being skeptical on 3% drop in COH homicide rate

[mattyt36]

 

 

Is Violent Crime Increasing? | Department of Criminology (upenn.edu)

Even though the increases in violent crime tend to be concentrated in neighborhoods that already had substantial crime problems, the violent crime increases appear to be quite common throughout the county. Some local district attorneys are progressive, and some are not. Some local mayors and governors are Republicans, and some are Democrats. Some state legislatures lean left, and some lean right. Political finger pointing at the state, county and city level will not likely be persuasive. Blaming individuals or institutions at the federal level probably will not work either because most crimes are not federal crimes, and federal actions can only have local effects at the margins.

One is left with several conclusions. First, the recent violent crime increases, even if they are not just noise, are dwarfed by the amount of violent crime in the 1990s. We have not returned to the bad old days. Second, the speculative explanations commonly proposed must fit the timing of the recent violent crime increases. Conjectures revolving around the COVID-19 pandemic and pent-up frustrations, at least as usually formulated, do not seem to get it right. Third, explanations based on more passive police practices, real and imagined, coupled with the perceptions of reduced risk among individuals already predisposed toward violence, may have some merit, but the existing data range from weak to nonexistent. It is very difficult to bring facts to bear. Fourth, if one takes the solid black curves in the two graphs at face value, we have been on a time path that is bottoming out. Sadly, this may be about as good as it gets under the existing conditions that affect violent crime. Variation in violent crime over the past few years may be nothing more than a bit of bouncing off the bottom. Fifth, with the passage of time, and the accumulation of better data, we may understand more about what drives violent crime. But we have a long way to go.

Edited October 28, 2022 by mattyt36

[august948]

5 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

 

 

Is Violent Crime Increasing? | Department of Criminology (upenn.edu)

Even though the increases in violent crime tend to be concentrated in neighborhoods that already had substantial crime problems, the violent crime increases appear to be quite common throughout the county. Some local district attorneys are progressive, and some are not. Some local mayors and governors are Republicans, and some are Democrats. Some state legislatures lean left, and some lean right. Political finger pointing at the state, county and city level will not likely be persuasive. Blaming individuals or institutions at the federal level probably will not work either because most crimes are not federal crimes, and federal actions can only have local effects at the margins.

One is left with several conclusions. First, the recent violent crime increases, even if they are not just noise, are dwarfed by the amount of violent crime in the 1990s. We have not returned to the bad old days. Second, the speculative explanations commonly proposed must fit the timing of the recent violent crime increases. Conjectures revolving around the COVID-19 pandemic and pent-up frustrations, at least as usually formulated, do not seem to get it right. Third, explanations based on more passive police practices, real and imagined, coupled with the perceptions of reduced risk among individuals already predisposed toward violence, may have some merit, but the existing data range from weak to nonexistent. It is very difficult to bring facts to bear. Fourth, if one takes the solid black curves in the two graphs at face value, we have been on a time path that is bottoming out. Sadly, this may be about as good as it gets under the existing conditions that affect violent crime. Variation in violent crime over the past few years may be nothing more than a bit of bouncing off the bottom. Fifth, with the passage of time, and the accumulation of better data, we may understand more about what drives violent crime. But we have a long way to go.

News flash!!!   Liberal commentator at liberal newspaper complains about Fox news!

[mattyt36]

3 hours ago, august948 said:

News flash!!!   Liberal commentator at liberal newspaper complains about Fox news!

But … there … were … charts …

GO ASTROS!!!!

[august948]

3 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

GO ASTROS!!!!

Something we can always agree on!!😃

[Amlaham]

https://abc13.com/deadly-police-chases-city-of-houston-lawsuit-three-families-file-civil-rights-hpd-chase-with-black-drivers/12592052/

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-dangerous-countries

. this is so dumb, I'm honestly sick of the crime in the US and the normalization that its "not that bad"

Now it's a problem when criminals are being chased? I understand that police brutality exists but I'm sick of the "cops are out to get us" act. 

UH is within these boundaries and when I was attending there a few years ago, EVERY SINGLE DAY there was an alert that a student was robbed, pulled a gun on, and pistol whipped. So what now, cops aren't allowed to chase a suspect? And specifically chase a suspect in a black neighborhood??? 

 

I've been overseas in Qatar, UAE, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Japan.. I can go on, and every single country felt WAY safer than the US. Why is that? Instead we're obsessed with abortion, religious freedom, and election integrity?? Is THAT really our main concerns? 

Numbers don't lie, America is dangerous, and this affects ALL of us. Whether we've been targeted by criminals or not. Are we supposed to only care when we ourselves have become a victim?? 

[HoustonMidtown]

ABC13's Neighborhood Safety Tracker breaks down HPD findings in 2022 comparing previous years

https://abc13.com/abc13-neighborhood-safety-tracker-crime-near-me-houston-police-department-rates/12629169/?ex_cid=TA_KTRK_TW&taid=63af0656fe01750001716c0b&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by HoustonMidtown

[BEES?!]

On 12/20/2022 at 1:19 PM, Amlaham said:

this is so dumb, I'm honestly sick of the crime in the US and the normalization that its "not that bad"

[…]

I've been overseas in Qatar, UAE, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Japan.. I can go on, and every single country felt WAY safer than the US. Why is that? Instead we're obsessed with abortion, religious freedom, and election integrity?? Is THAT really our main concerns? 

Numbers don't lie, America is dangerous, and this affects ALL of us. Whether we've been targeted by criminals or not. Are we supposed to only care when we ourselves have become a victim?? 

I largely agree with you. I get really frustrated with the normalization of crime as something we “just have to deal with”.  I get that we have a few circumstances here that make it different than other countries , but like I said in the Homeless in Houston thread, sometimes it seems like people just want to throw their hands up and go “Welp, nothing we can do! People gonna do their thing!” and decriminalize/legalize antisocial behavior, instead of trying to actually get to the root of what causes it. 
 

[trymahjong]

The Central&2 Division of HPD/PIP is tomorrow so I guess I'll ask my questions then......but my Mom showed me this from Facebook.

[trymahjong]

March 14 There is a Citywide meeting of HPD/ PIP ---1602 State street-- 7 pm-- open to public

 

There is always a PowerPoint of previous months crime stats, YTD stats etc-- I will be interested to see this information.

There are refreshments but no pi🙃

Edited March 12, 2023 by trymahjong

[trymahjong]

The crime stats handed out at May meeting of Central 1&2 Division of HPD positive interaction police program.

remember, the first grid are reported crimes-

the second grid are actual arrests:

[trymahjong]

There is an article in Chronicle today: Rape Case in Middle of Inquiry

This article will give an important bit of background to HPD giving out crime statistics.