txcat84 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 So I was recently transferred to Lafayette, LA. Outside of the festivals, the town is pretty much a suckhole, but that's another converaation. We had lived in the Greater Heights above 19th for 7 years before that and before we moved we paid off the 3/2 2004 build to use as a rental home. We are getting good returns and as soon as we are can we are planning in moving back into the same area.Question is this. And I'm sorry if it makes some of you guus roll your eyes:Is Houston absolutely f'd in the long run due to oil's long term outlook and the city's pension issues? Is the Heights rental market at all insulated from some of these factors in any way?I'm fully prepared to ride one or even two real estate downturns, but what is the long term outlook for a landlord in the heights you think? Just wanted to see what you guys thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txcat84 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sorry. Just re-read that and realize the typos make it seem like a Nigerian Prince email scam. Damn smartphones (shakes fist in air, yells at kids to get off lawn, has worthers original)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonMidtown Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not sure if it will answer your questions, but this thread discusses some of the things you are asking about... http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/haif/topic/31147-can-the-boom-continue/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avossos Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Keep it and rent it out. Area will strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 *Sees link to Can the boom continue thread* Even in that thread, I have been saying that the Houston market will certainly suffer, especially in 2016. However, Houston is not "f'd" in the long term. This downturn is a short term issue. We'll most likely see an upswing in our real estate market say possibly 2017, though more likely 2018 now, as long as the US economy stays afloat. What am I basing this on? CBRE analytics. Next, the Heights rental market will be strong due to its location. It's close to downtown and the Galleria. Location, location, location. It's hard to forecast a city's future too far out but the fundamentals of the city have dramatically improved since the 80s. The market is a lot more diversified now, though a good portion still relies on commodities. You'll also see there are indirect jobs that rely on the oil market as well... restaurants, retail, hotel, housing, etc. depend on the strength of the oil market as well. In my opinion, Houston still has a very bright future... nothing like the rust belt up in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txcat84 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 That's kind of what I gleaned from that thread. Houston is basically on a post - holiday diet, which doesn't indicate we are in too bad of shape. I appreciate the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tanith27 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm a landlord in the heights. Just put a ton of money towards upgrades. Rented outside the MLS (by owner) in less than two weeks, over Christmas no less. Area is still very popular best I can tell and no desire to sell. I figure the area wont have a downturn, but is returning to a more normal healthy market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s3mh Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think the pension issue should get resolved during Turner's first term because the unions know that there is a good chance that the City of Houston could go with a conservative mayor next time around who will want to gut the pension program and go with a 401k-esque system. Then, it will just be an issue of whether voters will lift the property tax ban or see Houston return to the days when all departments of the City were underfunded and barely functional (not to say that things are amazing today, but the difference between Houston of the Lee Brown days and how things have improved under White and Parker is staggering). The drainage fee might also have to go up for another vote thanks to the not so deft legal work of Mr. Feldman. The oil glut will not last forever. Most of the OPEC countries have to have oil at @$80 to be able to balance the government's budgets. Saudis are pumping all they can and cannot pump anymore without having to borrow money to drill new wells. Recall that in the 80s crash, the Saudis cut production to try to prop up the price and then gave up and went to full capacity. In other words, it really can't get any worse. It just is a matter of when will it get better and what the new normal will look like. The Heights is a great place to own a nice 3/2 rental. Even in down times in the oil patch, there is a steady stream of people coming to Houston on assignment from all over. The energy industry housing stipends are usually very generous. I would just wonder what the affect in the short run would be of having @1200 multifamily units come online in the Heights over the next year. There will probably be some nice deals on apartments until the energy industry gets moving again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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