Ted Poe vs. John Culberson

[livincinco]

This is very important.  And it exposes the limitations of light rail as a regional solution.  Light rail can work very well in shorter areas, say for example the inner loop only, but when you try to extend it to the suburbs, ridership falls dramatically.  And you see the same thing with the local bus system.  You'll notice that ridership on bus routes fall the further they go out.  At relatively slow speeds people are not going to get out of their cars.  If a large amount of suburban areas are going to be well connected by transit, it most likely won't be through light rail. 

 

At this point, it isn't really a problem.  The suburban areas outside the loop are sparse enough that transit is not really a key issue.  Inside the loop is a lot closer to it being an issue IMO.

 

Now's that's where I disagree with you.  Many posters on here immediately make the connection that inside the loop is "urban" and outside the loop is "suburbs" and it's really not true.  If you're looking at the kind of 25-30 year forward plan that a transit network requires, you have to consider many areas inside the beltway as part of the urban area of Houston.

[mfastx]

Now's that's where I disagree with you.  Many posters on here immediately make the connection that inside the loop is "urban" and outside the loop is "suburbs" and it's really not true.  If you're looking at the kind of 25-30 year forward plan that a transit network requires, you have to consider many areas inside the beltway as part of the urban area of Houston.

 

There are certainly dense areas outside of the loop, but I made that point to demonstrate that light rail is only effective when implemented with shorter lines.  I used inside the loop as an example of the typical length of a light rail line before you start to see diminishing returns.  It's just an area where I think light rail could work, as opposed to outside the loop where there are dense areas, but they are much further apart. 

 

For example, connecting employment centers is easier inside the loop.  Downtown, TMC, Uptown (not technically inside the loop but still located directly on the loop), and Greenway are all relatively close to one another.  The employment centers that are further out, such as Energy Corridor, Westchase, the Woodlands, etc. are much further apart and therefore harder to connect with transit.

[livincinco]

There are certainly dense areas outside of the loop, but I made that point to demonstrate that light rail is only effective when implemented with shorter lines. I used inside the loop as an example of the typical length of a light rail line before you start to see diminishing returns. It's just an area where I think light rail could work, as opposed to outside the loop where there are dense areas, but they are much further apart.

For example, connecting employment centers is easier inside the loop. Downtown, TMC, Uptown (not technically inside the loop but still located directly on the loop), and Greenway are all relatively close to one another. The employment centers that are further out, such as Energy Corridor, Westchase, the Woodlands, etc. are much further apart and therefore harder to connect with transit.

I've got concerns about the effectiveness of light rail in a city like Houston, but I'm going to put those aside for the purposes of this discussion. My concern is that connecting employment centers with employment centers is nice, but you really have to connect people with employment centers to be effective. If you look at the below Houston density map, it doesn't look like the proposed plans really do that. The highest density areas in Houston are outside the loop and I don't understand why a transit plan shouldn't include those areas.

One of the big challenges for transit in Houston is the size of the city. People constantly bemoan that rail is voted down, but the problem is that the rail plans presented don't do anything to impact the vast majority of the people that are voting on it. Only 25% of the cities population lives inside the loop, so you've got approx 75% of voters that are not going to be impacted by these plans. Present a comprehensive plan that positively impacts a higher percentage of the cities population and it will have a much higher probability of success.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Houstonpopulationdensity.PNG

[nativehoustonion]

The main issue is the University Line.  445,000 people live within the loop.  It is going to get more dense in the next 10 years.  I live a block from Whole Foods and would love to walk to Richmond and catch the University Line.  Go to Museum District, Herman park, Reliant Stadium, Midtown, Downtown.  I love Warren's they make the strongest cocktails in town! Have a lot of drinks and take the light rail back.    Richmond is all torn up with pot holes and it's awful.  Metro already spent millions on a required study on the University Line.  It's ready, I cannot see why the city, county, and the federal government cannot find a way to build it.  Unfortunately I'm in Culberson's district and we need to get him out of office!    

[infinite_jim]

If this is a political fight than Hulk Hogan is an accomplished athlete!

 

I live off the red line and am a constituent of Rep. Poe; color me skeptical but it looks like he's implying a political cover for Culberson if he decides he doesn't want to block funds in the future (like 2015ish, depending on how things work out for the new lines next year). This looks like a classic pay-it-forward hedge for his buddy. If Culberson happens to find himself with some angry suburban constituents who have been used to getting their way with him and don't want the uni line but simultaneously having his inner ear chewed out by billion dollar deal RE playazz from ATL (b/c light rail like any other infrastructure project is really about RE ammenitzing). Culberson is the one who's probably facing more of a future political headwind than the kid gloves, gerrymandered TX2 district for Rep. Poe (who,as we see in his pivot is a more talented politician than Culberson).

[livincinco]

Attached is Culberson's official statement on transportation as well as Texas Watchdogs analysis of the 2003 referendum.

http://culberson.house.gov/transportation/

http://www.texaswatchdog.org/2012/08/houston-metro-pushes-sales-tax-referendum-some-promises-unfulfilled/1343851102.story

[nativehoustonion]

I agree we need commuter rail from Sugarland, The Woodlands, Katy, but the problem is they are not part of METRO. Like DART has Plano, Richardson, Carrollton, Garland, Irving and commuter rail to Denton. DART gets their 1 cent tax just like METRO. All of our burbs need to vote if they want METRO to serve those areas. Or they need to create their own transportation authority. Did you know that Arlington, TX is the largest city without a transportation authority.

[Slick Vik]

I agree we need commuter rail from Sugarland, The Woodlands, Katy, but the problem is they are not part of METRO. Like DART has Plano, Richardson, Carrollton, Garland, Irving and commuter rail to Denton. DART gets their 1 cent tax just like METRO. All of our burbs need to vote if they want METRO to serve those areas. Or they need to create their own transportation authority. Did you know that Arlington, TX is the largest city without a transportation authority.

Good points

[livincinco]

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not talking about the burbs. I'm talking about the 75% of the population of the City of Houston that lives outside the loop and inside the beltway. They aren't in the burbs, they're in the city of Houston, but they never get talked about in transit discussions. There's a lot of conversation about density, but not a lot of acknowledgement that the densest part of Houston is the SW region of the city outside the loop.

[mfastx]

I've got concerns about the effectiveness of light rail in a city like Houston, but I'm going to put those aside for the purposes of this discussion. My concern is that connecting employment centers with employment centers is nice, but you really have to connect people with employment centers to be effective. If you look at the below Houston density map, it doesn't look like the proposed plans really do that. The highest density areas in Houston are outside the loop and I don't understand why a transit plan shouldn't include those areas.

One of the big challenges for transit in Houston is the size of the city. People constantly bemoan that rail is voted down, but the problem is that the rail plans presented don't do anything to impact the vast majority of the people that are voting on it. Only 25% of the cities population lives inside the loop, so you've got approx 75% of voters that are not going to be impacted by these plans. Present a comprehensive plan that positively impacts a higher percentage of the cities population and it will have a much higher probability of success.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Houstonpopulationdensity.PNG

 

I certainly understand the concern.  Firstly, let me say that while *only* 25% of Houston residents live inside the loop, that is still a very significant amount of people.  The current line has been well utilized, especially considering the layout of our city.  If built, the University Line would be well utilized as well. 

 

Outside the loop, the Houston area is so spread out that it's very hard to come up with a comprehensive plan to connect everything.  IMO a very effective way is to have heavy rail (top speeds of 80 mph or so) go from certain suburban areas into the inner loop.  You then can have numerous bus lines that serve areas where the rail doesn't go, which tie into the rail.  This rail would be similar to what you'd see in DC.  Obviously, every line wouldn't go downtown, and I wouldn't build quite as many lines as there are in DC, but it would certainly generate more ridership than we have today.

 

But it's basically impossible to serve outer loop areas effectively with transit, without transfers or higher speed transit.  There's just too much area to cover, and too many places that people want to go. 

[livincinco]

I certainly understand the concern. Firstly, let me say that while *only* 25% of Houston residents live inside the loop, that is still a very significant amount of people. The current line has been well utilized, especially considering the layout of our city. If built, the University Line would be well utilized as well.

Outside the loop, the Houston area is so spread out that it's very hard to come up with a comprehensive plan to connect everything. IMO a very effective way is to have heavy rail (top speeds of 80 mph or so) go from certain suburban areas into the inner loop. You then can have numerous bus lines that serve areas where the rail doesn't go, which tie into the rail. This rail would be similar to what you'd see in DC. Obviously, every line wouldn't go downtown, and I wouldn't build quite as many lines as there are in DC, but it would certainly generate more ridership than we have today.

But it's basically impossible to serve outer loop areas effectively with transit, without transfers or higher speed transit. There's just too much area to cover, and too many places that people want to go.

I agree with your statements (hence my reservations about light rail). My point is more political. It seems like there's a contingent on this site that can't understand why there isn't more support for rail in Houston. Rail calls for a high amount of money to be devoted to a reasonably small portion of the cities' population in the current plans. I think that it's reasonable to assume that there is a large portion of the cities' population that feels that they wouldn't benefit from those services. I'm not talking about the suburbs, they aren't part of Metro and therefore don't have a voice on such matters.

METRO has also done a really good job of historically proving that it doesn't do agood job of efficiently utilizing the money that is allocated to it and it hasn't been efficient at spending large sums of money when it receives them.

Take those two things in combination, and it doesn't strike me as that surprising that rail struggles to get support.

[Slick Vik]

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not talking about the burbs. I'm talking about the 75% of the population of the City of Houston that lives outside the loop and inside the beltway. They aren't in the burbs, they're in the city of Houston, but they never get talked about in transit discussions. There's a lot of conversation about density, but not a lot of acknowledgement that the densest part of Houston is the SW region of the city outside the loop.

Actually there was quite a bit of discussion on this when stops for university line was being discussed. The fact gulfton only has one stop is a travesty based on the amount of apartments in the area.

[Slick Vik]

I agree with your statements (hence my reservations about light rail). My point is more political. It seems like there's a contingent on this site that can't understand why there isn't more support for rail in Houston. Rail calls for a high amount of money to be devoted to a reasonably small portion of the cities' population in the current plans. I think that it's reasonable to assume that there is a large portion of the cities' population that feels that they wouldn't benefit from those services. I'm not talking about the suburbs, they aren't part of Metro and therefore don't have a voice on such matters.

METRO has also done a really good job of historically proving that it doesn't do agood job of efficiently utilizing the money that is allocated to it and it hasn't been efficient at spending large sums of money when it receives them.

Take those two things in combination, and it doesn't strike me as that surprising that rail struggles to get support.

If this was the case then the 2003 referendum never would have passed. The original map would have served a significant portion of the population. I'm talking about the map before it was cut to five lines.

[livincinco]

If this was the case then the 2003 referendum never would have passed. The original map would have served a significant portion of the population. I'm talking about the map before it was cut to five lines.

I think that you missed my second point about concerns about METROs ability to effectively spend large amounts of money. Concerns about METRO's ability to manage money is the reason that the 2003 referendum was scaled back and laid out with specific deliverables. METRO hasn't done a very good job of meeting those deliverables and there have been reforms instituted to try to improve the efficiency of the organization. It seems reasonable to me to make sure that they have resolved their problems before throwing them large amounts of money again.

[livincinco]

Actually there was quite a bit of discussion on this when stops for university line was being discussed. The fact gulfton only has one stop is a travesty based on the amount of apartments in the area.

It's not just Gulfton. Look at the map, the entire SW Houston area has equal or higher density than inside the loop.

[Slick Vik]

It's not just Gulfton. Look at the map, the entire SW Houston area has equal or higher density than inside the loop.

Agreed but gulfton has the most density of any area in the city and possibly the state (I have to double check on that)

I think that you missed my second point about concerns about METROs ability to effectively spend large amounts of money. Concerns about METRO's ability to manage money is the reason that the 2003 referendum was scaled back and laid out with specific deliverables. METRO hasn't done a very good job of meeting those deliverables and there have been reforms instituted to try to improve the efficiency of the organization. It seems reasonable to me to make sure that they have resolved their problems before throwing them large amounts of money again.

They've cleaned up a lot in recent years.

[nativehoustonion]

livincinco, I'm sorry you live out in the burbs. Once the three lines are complete. Everybody in Houston are going to be pro rail. If Metro did a referendum with rail to go down Westheimer to the Beltway, to the airports with maybe 90 miles of LRT for 5 billion dollars. It would not have passed. Since we had wonderful Delay in office. We had to go back and vote for 7.5 mile LRT rail down Main St. Now we have Culberson in office. When they widen the Kathy freeway they proposed a rail line in the middle of the freeway. But of course they built a tollway.

[Slick Vik]

livincinco, I'm sorry you live out in the burbs. Once the three lines are complete. Everybody in Houston are going to be pro rail. If Metro did a referendum with rail to go down Westheimer to the Beltway, to the airports with maybe 90 miles of LRT for 5 billion dollars. It would not have passed. Since we had wonderful Delay in office. We had to go back and vote for 7.5 mile LRT rail down Main St. Now we have Culberson in office. When they widen the Kathy freeway they proposed a rail line in the middle of the freeway. But of course they built a tollway.

Don't forget that delay had the tracks on old Katy road ripped out

[livincinco]

livincinco, I'm sorry you live out in the burbs. Once the three lines are complete. Everybody in Houston are going to be pro rail. If Metro did a referendum with rail to go down Westheimer to the Beltway, to the airports with maybe 90 miles of LRT for 5 billion dollars. It would not have passed. Since we had wonderful Delay in office. We had to go back and vote for 7.5 mile LRT rail down Main St. Now we have Culberson in office. When they widen the Kathy freeway they proposed a rail line in the middle of the freeway. But of course they built a tollway.

I'm not sorry that I live in the burbs and I'm really not looking for your sympathy. I'm extremely impressed by your ability to reduce the entire discussion of rail in Houston to a couple of bullet points, so there's clearly no need for further discussion. I'm equally certain that you would be able to reduce ending poverty and world hunger to the same number of bullet points, so I will leave you to fix the world's problems since there is clearly no need for nuanced discussion.

I eagerly await the announcement of your Nobel prize.

[nativehoustonion]

Very funny! Don't worry I have already have a prize. Oh well, there is nothing we can do from the past. Only the future, let gets Houston to have a solid transportation system and start building it. When I get my other prize I'll let your know.

[Slick Vik]

I'm not sorry that I live in the burbs and I'm really not looking for your sympathy. I'm extremely impressed by your ability to reduce the entire discussion of rail in Houston to a couple of bullet points, so there's clearly no need for further discussion. I'm equally certain that you would be able to reduce ending poverty and world hunger to the same number of bullet points, so I will leave you to fix the world's problems since there is clearly no need for nuanced discussion.

I eagerly await the announcement of your Nobel prize.

What do you think about commuter rail from houston to Galveston, westpark, fort bend, and 290 commuter rail, which are the only realistic scenarios at this moment? Katy could've been ahead of the field by putting a rail line instead of one toll lane on each side but unfortunately that was not done.

[nativehoustonion]

Great idea but who will pay for it. None of those communities belong to METRO. They need to vote to belong to METRO and pay their 1 cent tax, or create their own authority. Forth Bend county is as large of Forth Worth in population. What are they going to do? Build more roads?

[Trae]

Well, you must also remember that we have spent many times the amount that Richmond rail would cost on the Katy freeway, including multiple reconstructions.  So it makes sense that something that we invest upwards of 4 or 5 billion dollars is going to have more riders. 

 

If we build 5 billion dollars worth of heavy rail, then as many people would use that too. 

 

This. $5B on a heavy rail system and Houston would get 500K riders a day IMO. A line from Katy-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston, Sugar Land-Downtown-IAH/The Woodlands, Alief/Mission Bend-Downtown-IAH/The Woodlands, Cypress-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston, etc. That could be more than $5B, but that's the dream system for Houston imo.

 

The congestion is much improved since they widened the Katy Freeway.  Far more people use that on a daily basis than would use a lrt down richmond.  Widening well-used freeways is such a no-brainer that it doesn't require a vote.

 

Eh, not really. That thing is still packed both ways during rush hour. And during non-peak times, there are so many people scared of all the lines and just not paying attention that they pick a random lane and drive in it slow, causing backups. I mean yeah, it definitely isn't always congested like before though.

[livincinco]

What do you think about commuter rail from houston to Galveston, westpark, fort bend, and 290 commuter rail, which are the only realistic scenarios at this moment? Katy could've been ahead of the field by putting a rail line instead of one toll lane on each side but unfortunately that was not done.

 

I think that commuter rail from Houston to Galveston would be a poor investment.  There might be value in running commuter rail along 45 down to the Clear Lake area, but I can't see sufficient ridership from Galveston during rush hour to support it.

 

Regarding rail down the center of the Katy Freeway, possibly advantageous, but I would be interested to hear answers to the following questions before I would say that it would have put us "ahead of the field".

 

- The toll lanes end at 610 - where would the rail line run to finish the route to downtown?

- Park and ride currently runs that route - what are the ridership numbers and is there reason to believe that it will exceed capacity?

- Park and ride services multiple suburban locations - Addicks, Kingsland, and Grand Parkway. It stops at multiple locations in the Energy Corridor and multiple locations downtown.  Would you intend to have rail match this service and if so, how would you handle the room required to place multiple sets of tracks in each direction as well as stations?

- Park and ride offers service from Katy to Uptown.  Assuming that this would not be offered by rail?

[livincinco]

This. $5B on a heavy rail system and Houston would get 500K riders a day IMO. A line from Katy-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston, Sugar Land-Downtown-IAH/The Woodlands, Alief/Mission Bend-Downtown-IAH/The Woodlands, Cypress-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston, etc. That could be more than $5B, but that's the dream system for Houston imo.

 

From what I've seen the cost of building heavy rail conservatively runs at $200mil/mile.  $5 billion gets you 25 miles.  I'm not sure what 25 mile network do you think would get 500k riders day.

 

For reference, assuming the $200mil/mile cost, you've proposed the following:

 

Katy-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston - 79 miles - $15.8 billion

Alief-Downtown-IAH-The Woodlands - 63 miles -$12.6 billion

Cypress - Downtown (assuming the Galveston is on common track with the Katy line) - 27 miles - $5.4 billion

 

The proposed system is $33.8 billion assumes that there are no cost overruns.  Chances of there being no cost overruns are extremely low.  A final price tag of $45 - $50 billion is probably more likely.

 

I'm not trying to be difficult, just trying to be realistic.

[Ross]

- Park and ride services multiple suburban locations - Addicks, Kingsland, and Grand Parkway. It stops at multiple locations in the Energy Corridor and multiple locations downtown.  Would you intend to have rail match this service and if so, how would you handle the room required to place multiple sets of tracks in each direction as well as stations?

- Park and ride offers service from Katy to Uptown.  Assuming that this would not be offered by rail?

 

Park and rides have parking. Where is the parking going to be for commuter rail that runs down the middle of I-10? I haven't seen any proposal that covers that. I fyou look at commuter rail in various other cities, there's parking lots at each station.

[mfastx]

livincinco, I'm sorry you live out in the burbs. Once the three lines are complete. Everybody in Houston are going to be pro rail. If Metro did a referendum with rail to go down Westheimer to the Beltway, to the airports with maybe 90 miles of LRT for 5 billion dollars. It would not have passed. Since we had wonderful Delay in office. We had to go back and vote for 7.5 mile LRT rail down Main St. Now we have Culberson in office. When they widen the Kathy freeway they proposed a rail line in the middle of the freeway. But of course they built a tollway.

 

Alan Kiepper knew what he was doing when he proposed the 1983 heavy rail plan.  While the first line didn't accomplish much and was overpriced (due to downtown portion being in a subway) the full proposed system was quite comprehensive and would have had lots of ridership today.  Oh well.

 

From what I've seen the cost of building heavy rail conservatively runs at $200mil/mile.  $5 billion gets you 25 miles.  I'm not sure what 25 mile network do you think would get 500k riders day.

 

For reference, assuming the $200mil/mile cost, you've proposed the following:

 

Katy-Downtown-Hobby-Galveston - 79 miles - $15.8 billion

Alief-Downtown-IAH-The Woodlands - 63 miles -$12.6 billion

Cypress - Downtown (assuming the Galveston is on common track with the Katy line) - 27 miles - $5.4 billion

 

The proposed system is $33.8 billion assumes that there are no cost overruns.  Chances of there being no cost overruns are extremely low.  A final price tag of $45 - $50 billion is probably more likely.

 

I'm not trying to be difficult, just trying to be realistic.

 

A heavy rail plan serving the whole metro area would probably not be quite that expensive due to much of it being above ground in sparse areas, but yeah it'd be a s**t ton of money. 

 

It would also be interesting to look at the total amount of money we've spent on highways throughout the whole metro area.  This figure would include original 1950s construction and go all the way to today, including reconstructions and maintenance, adjusted for inflation.  I'd imagine it'd be a similarly high number. 

 

But yeah, good infrastructure costs a lot, that's for sure. 

[trymahjong]

  Metro already spent millions on a required study on the University Line.  It's ready, I cannot see why the city, county, and the federal government cannot find a way to build it.  Unfortunately I'm in Culberson's district and we need to get him out of office!    

 

Metro will have to pony up more money for a new study-- All the previous information is dated--at least that was the report to Neartown.

[livincinco]

It would also be interesting to look at the total amount of money we've spent on highways throughout the whole metro area. This figure would include original 1950s construction and go all the way to today, including reconstructions and maintenance, adjusted for inflation. I'd imagine it'd be a similarly high number.

But yeah, good infrastructure costs a lot, that's for sure.

It might be, but it's not really an apples to apples comparison because regardless of whether you have rail or not, you still end up with highways so it almost becomes a sunk cost. You can argue that you might not have widened the Katy Freeway, but it's pretty hard to argue that you don't build the Katy Freeway. The same is true of I-45, US-59, and the loop. It's also hard to include the toll roads in those comparisons because they tend to pay for themselves.

Even in the most optimistic scenario where HSR ran from Houston to Austin, it might reduce maintenance costs and alleviate the need for the road, but you still build a highway.

[mfastx]

It might be, but it's not really an apples to apples comparison because regardless of whether you have rail or not, you still end up with highways so it almost becomes a sunk cost. You can argue that you might not have widened the Katy Freeway, but it's pretty hard to argue that you don't build the Katy Freeway. The same is true of I-45, US-59, and the loop. It's also hard to include the toll roads in those comparisons because they tend to pay for themselves.

Even in the most optimistic scenario where HSR ran from Houston to Austin, it might reduce maintenance costs and alleviate the need for the road, but you still build a highway.

 

Oh I agree totally.  For sure highways are necessary, but there are many cities much larger than Houston with less highway lane miles.  We've certainly invested a lot in our highways, especially when you look at it from a "per capita" perspective.