The End of Suburbia

[august948]

That's a very fair observation. I base part of my belief in continued innovation on the current pipeline that exists in that area.

I base my entire belief on the course of human history and technology over the past few millenia.

[august948]

You are the one that says sprawl is just fine and houston doesn't have to make any changes. That is the myopic view.

Sprawl IS just fine. There's nothing at all wrong with people wanting to live in Katy or The Woodlands or Sealy or Brenham, for that matter.

[livincinco]

Like Texas blocking tesla from selling directly in Texas?

No, that's a perfect example of government failing to execute its proper role. In that case, government is restricting activity that is in the interest of both the company (Tesla) and the public. As I already clearly stated, I disagree strongly with the government's action in that case.

I do think that it's relevant to interpret that action for what it is. A corrupt attempt to detain the distributor system and not confuse it with the end product being distributed. This has nothing to do with the fact that Tesla is selling an electric car and everything to do with them wanting to sell directly to the public without utilizing a distributor.

[Slick Vik]

Sprawl IS just fine. There's nothing at all wrong with people wanting to live in Katy or The Woodlands or Sealy or Brenham, for that matter.

It's not sustainable in the long run. Time will prove this

[livincinco]

It's not sustainable in the long run. Time will prove this

I'll take my chances. Please feel free to get back to me once you have taken steps to reduce your high carbon footprint and material possessions.

[Ross]

It's not sustainable in the long run. Time will prove this

 

In the long run, I'll be dead and won't care.

[livincinco]

Interesting report analyzing sprawl in Europe.

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2006_10/eea_report_10_2006.pdf

[luciaphile]

Is it still sprawl if hardly anyone came? Is the wisdom of it still obvious? And can it really be said to have been "rooted in a desire to realise lifestyle changes"? Or was it driven by something else?

 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-ghost-towns-satellite-2011-4?op=1

 

[musicman]

With businesses moving to the suburbs, the employees are just following.

Homes outside the beltway draw 8 out of 10 buyers

 

http://www.chron.com/homes/neighborhood-survey-2013/article/Homes-outside-Loop-610-draw-8-out-of-10-buyers-4432802.php

 

More than 80 percent of the homes that sold last year were outside of Beltway 8, according to a study commissioned by the Houston Chronicle. Compare that to just 6 percent inside Loop 610 and 12.8 percent between the Loop and the Beltway.

[livincinco]

Is it still sprawl if hardly anyone came? Is the wisdom of it still obvious? And can it really be said to have been "rooted in a desire to realise lifestyle changes"? Or was it driven by something else?

Pretty good analysis of the housing crisis in Spain. Lot of similarity to the housing bubble that occurred in the US, but worse because it was aggregated by government policies.

http://www.craig.csufresno.edu/International_Programs/JC/IJB/Volumes/Volume%2017/V174-2.pdf

[livincinco]

With businesses moving to the suburbs, the employees are just following.

Homes outside the beltway draw 8 out of 10 buyers

http://www.chron.com/homes/neighborhood-survey-2013/article/Homes-outside-Loop-610-draw-8-out-of-10-buyers-4432802.php

More than 80 percent of the homes that sold last year were outside of Beltway 8, according to a study commissioned by the Houston Chronicle. Compare that to just 6 percent inside Loop 610 and 12.8 percent between the Loop and the Beltway.

Exactly. I find it interesting that the same patterns have evolved in Europe despite differences in government and transit policies.

[august948]

Exactly. I find it interesting that the same patterns have evolved in Europe despite differences in government and transit policies.

 

And we have the same patterns all over North America as well even though local, state, and national governments run the gamut of policies regarding transit, commuting and suburbs.  As I understand it, Mexico City has some of the worst rush hour traffic jams in the Western Hemisphere while also having a pretty extensive transit (read rail) system.

[august948]

"Outlying cities see major shifts in daytime populations"

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Outlying-cities-see-major-shifts-in-daytime-4592569.php

From the article:

"In the Houston region, we really have eight places that are as big as many downtowns in the country," said Michael Emerson, co-director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University.

Those places that import jobs benefit from the influx, via higher property tax revenues and additional sales taxes. Humble, for example, quadruples in size during the workday, city manager Darrell Boeske said.

Twenty years ago, Humble was virtually nothing but homes, ranches and a few gas stations. Today, it's home to booming retail scene, two hospitals and a college.

Katy was in a similar position years ago, Emerson said. Once a place where residential rooftops were about the only thing that denoted a break from the prairie, the city has become a shopping mecca and growing office area. That happened because city officials took advantage of their freeway access and decided it was important to lure jobs.

Karen Warren, Staff

Urban sprawl as lots stand empty with new homes under construction in the background, in Cinco Ranch subdivision at Cinco Ranch Blvd near Flewellen Road, Monday, June 10, 2013, in Katy. ( Karen Warren /

"Suburbs used to be content to be bedroom communities," Emerson said. "But not anymore."

[Slick Vik]

"Outlying cities see major shifts in daytime populations" http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Outlying-cities-see-major-shifts-in-daytime-4592569.php From the article:

 

Of the major employment centers, I'd say the following are in Houston: Downtown, Greenway Plaza, Medical Center, Greenspoint, Galleria, Westchase. Energy Corridor is towards Katy. I think a good breakdown would be to see how many people live within a five mile radius of where they work, because in that sense most of the suburbs (Katy and Woodlands excluded I guess) are still bedroom communities for the most part. I read some statistics about average commute time and cost per person per day in Houston a few months ago, it was high I need to find them. This creates an issue though, should cities be thankful suburbanites are coming in daily and pumping in money during the day, or should they resent suburbanites for not wanting to pay in certain city projects because it won't affect them, though in a sense they do use them during the weekdays?

[samagon]

This country peaked oil consumption a couple years ago but is growing domestic reserves significantly. I think waiting for higher prices isn't the starter you're looking for.

But I do think Houston will eventually add commuter rail to the suburbs. I would favor that and favor transit that makes sense. I'm also probably in your generation. I DO NOT favor socialist style mandates requiring some all knowing government to decide where families and individuals should live. You really sound like you have a complex over this. You mentioned earlier you grew up in a suburb. It's like you can't get "urban" enough, whatever that means.

 

USA production peaked back in the 80s for oil, that was what initiated Houston's bust at the time.

 

oil prices have risen, and will continue to rise thanks to the difficult extraction methods they have to use now, and thanks to new and increasing markets for oil.

 

Yes, we, the USA might be level, or even declining in oil use, but China and India are the elephants in the room here. according to the EIA both countries are increasing their use, while their production does not increase year over year at the same rate:

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

China is the world's second largest oil consumer behind the United States, and the largest global energy consumer, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The country was a net oil exporter until the early 1990s and became the world's second largest net importer of oil in 2009. China's oil consumption growth accounted for half of the world's oil consumption growth in 2011. Natural gas usage in China has also increased rapidly in recent years, and China has looked to raise natural gas imports via pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). China is also the world's largest top coal producer and consumer and accounted for about half of the global coal consumption, an important factor in world energy-related CO2 emissions.

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN

 

India was the fourth largest consumer of oil and petroleum products after the United States, China, and Japan in 2011. It was also the fourth largest importer of oil and petroleum products. The high degree of dependence on imported crude oil has led Indian energy companies to attempt to diversify their supply sources. To this end, Indian national oil companies (NOCs) have purchased equity stakes in overseas oil and gas fields in South America, Africa, and the Caspian Sea region to acquire reserves and production capability. However, the majority of imports continue to come from the Middle East, where Indian companies have little direct access to investment.

 

this will catch up, and prices will reflect this because oil is a global commodity and the prices we see are very much reflective of the demand vs supply in the global market.

 

edit: as further explanation, I do not believe that mature markets will reduce consumption at the same rate as other emerging markets increase consumption, the end result will be that overall global consumption will continue to increase, even though the USA and Europe consumption might actually decrease.

 

So the big question is, can we (the USA) reduce our own consumption of oil at a rate that corresponds to the increase in the price (as opposed to reducing our consumption to offset the emerging markets increased consumption). The fact that truck sales are increasing again doesn't bode well for this to play out.

[august948]

USA production peaked back in the 80s for oil, that was what initiated Houston's bust at the time.

 

oil prices have risen, and will continue to rise thanks to the difficult extraction methods they have to use now, and thanks to new and increasing markets for oil.

 

Yes, we, the USA might be level, or even declining in oil use, but China and India are the elephants in the room here. according to the EIA both countries are increasing their use, while their production does not increase year over year at the same rate:

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN

 

 

this will catch up, and prices will reflect this because oil is a global commodity and the prices we see are very much reflective of the demand vs supply in the global market.

Something I find interesting here is looking at an EIA report from this May shows that we're importing 40% of our oil needs as of 2012, with half of that coming from the Western Hemisphere. It also states that our oil imports peaked in 2005.

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm

That jibes with other reports I've heard that due to new technologies we may be a net exporter within the next decade or so, surpassing Saudi Arabia in production.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/12/us-oil-production-2012_n_3426755.html

What I'm curious about now is how this is going to affect global political, economic, and military strategies in the near future. As we become less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, what happens there is going to be of less concern to us. At the same time, it might happen that what goes on in the Middle East will become of greater and greater importance to China and India, possibly spurring them to the kinds of political, economic, and military actions we've found ourselves involved in for the past 70 years.

[samagon]

Is it still sprawl if hardly anyone came? Is the wisdom of it still obvious? And can it really be said to have been "rooted in a desire to realise lifestyle changes"? Or was it driven by something else?

 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-ghost-towns-satellite-2011-4?op=1

 

I want to take a vacation to tour these various ghost towns with a Ferrari and go crazy racing around

 

The ghost towns in China they built a few years ago look really appealing for these purposes

 

Something I find interesting here is looking at an EIA report from this May shows that we're importing 40% of our oil needs as of 2012, with half of that coming from the Western Hemisphere. It also states that our oil imports peaked in 2005.

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm

That jibes with other reports I've heard that due to new technologies we may be a net exporter within the next decade or so, surpassing Saudi Arabia in production.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/12/us-oil-production-2012_n_3426755.html

What I'm curious about now is how this is going to affect global political, economic, and military strategies in the near future. As we become less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, what happens there is going to be of less concern to us. At the same time, it might happen that what goes on in the Middle East will become of greater and greater importance to China and India, possibly spurring them to the kinds of political, economic, and military actions we've found ourselves involved in for the past 70 years.

 

I can't find the specific article right now, but they are predicting that the shale oil will last anywhere from 10-20 years, so over the extended long term, if things remain status quot (no new energy sources, no alternate fuels), I'm not so bullish on our foreign policy shifting too much. The article I'm thinking of was released in 2011, so a lot has happened in production, and what's available since then, so I'm sure it's shifted.

[Slick Vik]

Watching 60 minutes made me think; if Detroit's vastness made it difficult for firefighters and cops, houston will face similar problems at some point.

[IronTiger]

I suppose where there's severely underbudgeted emergency services and swaths of abandoned blocks, then yeah, it's gonna be difficult!

[brian0123]

It's already like that. My brother (in the burbs), was attacked and the group tried to pull him out of his car in NW Houston. Speed away and called 911. It took the Constable 1 hour to respond (they were short staffed that night). The white trash cop told him he should get a CHL and just took a statement.

 

When I lived in the Midtown, I would call the cops and have HPD on my front door within minutes. Now I'm in Braeswood and it took them 10 minutes for a suspicious person call. Friggin awesome. I love police response times in the city. 

 

My biggest fear for my family in the burbs is as the crime rates and traffic rise, it's only going to get worse for police and fire response.

 

 

[Slick Vik]

It's already like that. My brother (in the burbs), was attacked and the group tried to pull him out of his car in NW Houston. Speed away and called 911. It took the Constable 1 hour to respond (they were short staffed that night). The white trash cop told him he should get a CHL and just took a statement.

When I lived in the Midtown, I would call the cops and have HPD on my front door within minutes. Now I'm in Braeswood and it took them 10 minutes for a suspicious person call. Friggin awesome. I love police response times in the city.

My biggest fear for my family in the burbs is as the crime rates and traffic rise, it's only going to get worse for police and fire response.

It took my friend three hours to get a Harris county constable after being a victim of a bad hit and run accident. Absurd.

[Ross]

It's already like that. My brother (in the burbs), was attacked and the group tried to pull him out of his car in NW Houston. Speed away and called 911. It took the Constable 1 hour to respond (they were short staffed that night). The white trash cop told him he should get a CHL and just took a statement.

 

When I lived in the Midtown, I would call the cops and have HPD on my front door within minutes. Now I'm in Braeswood and it took them 10 minutes for a suspicious person call. Friggin awesome. I love police response times in the city. 

 

My biggest fear for my family in the burbs is as the crime rates and traffic rise, it's only going to get worse for police and fire response.

 

Harris County is pretty thin when it comes to police presence, with response times of an hour common for areas that don't pay for a special patrol. I've also seen HPD have response times of never for attempted robberies, with the area Captain blaming it on shift change.

 

[Slick Vik]

One thing I found interesting about the film is the bell curve of oil. If we've already hit the peak than it's only going to get more expensive to extract oil in the future. Also our freight and passenger rail systems need major work because when oil becomes very expensive so will trucking. Our society is based on the need for cheap energy which will not last forever.

[IronTiger]

One thing I found interesting about the film is the bell curve of oil. If we've already hit the peak than it's only going to get more expensive to extract oil in the future. Also our freight and passenger rail systems need major work because when oil becomes very expensive so will trucking. Our society is based on the need for cheap energy which will not last forever.

The "peak oil" line of thinking has been discussed for years, and know when oil will start to "run out". A lot of how "expensive" oil is is due to government meddling.

[Slick Vik]

The "peak oil" line of thinking has been discussed for years, and know when oil will start to "run out". A lot of how "expensive" oil is is due to government meddling.

 

Do you know what a Bell Curve is?

[IronTiger]

Do you know what a Bell Curve is?

 

Yes, I do. Are you attempting to mock me, or do you not understand the concept?

[Slick Vik]

Yes, I do. Are you attempting to mock me, or do you not understand the concept?

 

I understand the concept. If you do, you will know that once the peak is crossed, it's going to cost more to extract the same amounts. This will lead to an increase of prices in a nation that depends on cheap oil. The results will be catastrophic, except for people that planned for it. I can't wait.

[samagon]

Peak oil isn't about the amount of oil, it's about the price to extract oil at a price that people are willing to pay, there isn't a bell curve as such, there's more oil, just not accessible at a price with the technology.

 

So, as technology progresses, we can access harder to get reserves. like all the shale that's being cracked today. They knew about the reserves decades ago, it just wasn't economical to extract and the technology really didn't exist. same for the oil that was deep in the gulf and other locations.

 

3 decades ago cutting edge was drilling in 200 ft of water, today cutting edge is drilling in 2 miles of water. (and the price for drilling in 2 miles today is relative to what drilling in 200 feet was 3 decades ago).

[Houston19514]

I understand the concept. If you do, you will know that once the peak is crossed, it's going to cost more to extract the same amounts. This will lead to an increase of prices in a nation that depends on cheap oil. The results will be catastrophic, except for people that planned for it. I can't wait.

 

A more revealing post I cannot recall.

[august948]

I understand the concept. If you do, you will know that once the peak is crossed, it's going to cost more to extract the same amounts. This will lead to an increase of prices in a nation that depends on cheap oil. The results will be catastrophic, except for people that planned for it. I can't wait.

 

Good luck in the bunker.  You'll be waiting a long, long, long time.  The US is poised to be the top producer of oil by 2015.  Any economic effect will be even more gradual than was predicted just a few years ago and will thus be more than manageable.  You can put away the peak oil videos now.  It's not going to happen the way they say it will.