Warren Buffett Says We're Already In A Recession

[houstonmacbro]

Socialism is only bad when it relates to healthcare, not propping up wealthy investors taking inordinate financial risks. I find it interesting that even those that point out socialism in the US financial markets still laud it as a good thing. "Mr Paulson was still right to intervene: the collapse of Fannie and Freddie would have been a catastrophe." When times are good, the free market ideologues shove their mantra down our throats, claiming that the market cures all, including those who overindulge. But, when catastrophe hits, and profits are at risk, a healthy sense of pragmatism takes its place. Maybe socialism isn't so bad after all. Yet, the fact that 47 million Americans are uninsured, or that even those that have insurance are often denied coverage for illnesses, is still not considered a catastrophe, at least not one worthy of socialist intervention.

Well, at least one good thing has come of this unparalleled expression of entitlement. No one is talking about privatizing Social Security anymore.

It's really sad. Personally, I say these people who did these sorts of loans and created these markets need to be prosecuted. But I guarantee no one will get more than a slap on the wrists for this.

[Subdude]

With respect to both the mortgage agencies and the ongoing funding of the large investment banks, what is objectionable isn't the bailouts per se. In both cases there were serious concerns that failures would lead to panics and destabilize markets. Fair enough. Stepping in was the least bad option. The problem is that it isn't even really socialism, because taxpayers are funding losses but will receive no share of the profits. If the banks and agencies can make more profits for themselves by doing risky deals, all the while knowing they won't be allowed to fail, then taking on more risk is exactly the rational response. And that just sets us up for yet another financial crisis down the road.

If bailouts are necessary, then fine, bail away, but there should be a very clear quid pro quo - either an explicit insurance charge such as commercial banks have to pay for FDIC insurance, or perhaps a direct slice of any future profits. Government sponsorship may not be pretty, but I can live with it as long as the financial and commercial advantages to the firms are minimized.

[lockmat]

Since we're headed towards a very long recession, and this being my first one as a worker, I have a question.

Will a company like 24 Hour Fitness be greatly affected by this? I wanted to get a prepaid membership that costs about $600. I don't want to overblow the situation, but I want to spend big amounts of money cautiously going into these times. I'm more or less worried that I'll pay this big lump sum going into a recession and then the gym goes under and I'll have lost all my money. I don't think it will happen, but you never know. My thought is that a gym membership is sort of a luxury and that many people won't be joining/renewing in the next 5-10 years, the amount of time I expect us to go into this slump, and then 24 hour will go kerplunk.

Thoughts?

[RedScare]

Since we're headed towards a very long recession, and this being my first one as a worker, I have a question.

Will a company like 24 Hour Fitness be greatly affected by this? I wanted to get a prepaid membership that costs about $600. I don't want to overblow the situation, but I want to spend big amounts of money cautiously going into these times. I'm more or less worried that I'll pay this big lump sum going into a recession and then the gym goes under and I'll have lost all my money. I don't think it will happen, but you never know. My thought is that a gym membership is sort of a luxury and that many people won't be joining/renewing in the next 5-10 years, the amount of time I expect us to go into this slump, and then 24 hour will go kerplunk.

Thoughts?

My thought is that the Dow just dropped below 10,000 this morning. My other thought is that if you have to ask us whether to blow $600 on a fitness club membership, you're not going to make it through the recession.

Seriously, don't waste your money. Buy a bicycle.

EDIT: BTW, there are some great posts on the first page of this thread. Kinda gives you a feel for who can read tea leaves, and who cannot.

[20thStDad]

I'm becoming anti-gym. We just re-joined the Y, but I enjoy running and biking more. As far as strength training, when we were between gyms I got by just fine on pushups and pullups (there are bars at memorial and allen parkway walking trails), and enjoyed being outside compared to inside. But it depends on what you like, if you want treadmills and classes and can't live without free weights you don't have much choice, unless you take a side job as a roofer. Climbing a ladder with just 1 package of shingles is one of the hardest things I've ever done.

EDIT: To add to the topic, in the face of a recession, if everyone starts to cut back their spending does that not make things worse?

[lockmat]

I mainly want to the basketball gym. That's how I want to stay in shape. I have a bike but you've gotta ride it forever to get anything out of it and it doesn't help that there aren't any hills. Running is almost out of the question.

[houstonmacbro]

I mainly want to the basketball gym. That's how I want to stay in shape. I have a bike but you've gotta ride it forever to get anything out of it and it doesn't help that there aren't any hills. Running is almost out of the question.

Man, if I lived in TW like you I would definitely ride a bike. You guys have great bike paths up there.

I'm becoming anti-gym. We just re-joined the Y, but I enjoy running and biking more. As far as strength training, when we were between gyms I got by just fine on pushups and pullups (there are bars at memorial and allen parkway walking trails), and enjoyed being outside compared to inside. But it depends on what you like, if you want treadmills and classes and can't live without free weights you don't have much choice, unless you take a side job as a roofer. Climbing a ladder with just 1 package of shingles is one of the hardest things I've ever done.

EDIT: To add to the topic, in the face of a recession, if everyone starts to cut back their spending does that not make things worse?

The community colleges have gyms too. You might want to register for and take a few classes and use your ID card at their gyms. Montgomery College I believe has a nice gym.

Since we're headed towards a very long recession, and this being my first one as a worker, I have a question.

Will a company like 24 Hour Fitness be greatly affected by this? I wanted to get a prepaid membership that costs about $600. I don't want to overblow the situation, but I want to spend big amounts of money cautiously going into these times. I'm more or less worried that I'll pay this big lump sum going into a recession and then the gym goes under and I'll have lost all my money. I don't think it will happen, but you never know. My thought is that a gym membership is sort of a luxury and that many people won't be joining/renewing in the next 5-10 years, the amount of time I expect us to go into this slump, and then 24 hour will go kerplunk.

Thoughts?

Yeah, but you'll be fit and fine and not bedraggled at the end of this slump. You'll be a chick magnet.

[crunchtastic]

EDIT: BTW, there are some great posts on the first page of this thread. Kinda gives you a feel for who can read tea leaves, and who cannot.

I went back and scanned the first few posts. I see with some amusement that I was on record as stating that no job (in financial services) is safe. Fast forward to today, where each day my badge works at the building entrance is another day to celebrate.

What I like more was how we were deconstrucing jobs data from March with 85,000 lost, which was handily dwarfed by last week's numbers.

Here's a little anecdotal recession story. Saturday I was at the coin shop in Rice Village trading some diamond pieces for gold. While I was waiting my turn, I watched a elderly asian man and his son/grandson count out and sell 31 gold eagles. Then I watched the store guy count back a little over $30,000 in hundred dollar bills. I felt kinda bad for the old man, if he had brought his stash about 4 days earlier, he would have made an extra $150 on each coin.

[houstonmacbro]

As if this couldn't get any more dramatic, this just in:

Citigroup has sued Wachovia and Wells Fargo in New York state court seeking $60 billion over a merger agreement between Wells and Wachovia that Citi believes was reached improperly.

http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfra.../06/daily6.html

[Subdude]

You might not have been keeping track, but today is the third anniversary of what is considered to have been the start of the credit crunch.

Link

Another link

I thought it would be appropriate to mark the occasion in one of the first HAIF topics dealing with the recession that followed. In retrospect it is interesting to read some of the early posts.

[native_Houstonian]

Resurrecting this topic....the DOW is up 300 points over the last 2 days. Is this the beginning of the end of the recession or just a blip in the market? Are we on the right track or will we have the lost decade that Japan had? Thoughts?

[Subdude]

Resurrecting this topic....the DOW is up 300 points over the last 2 days. Is this the beginning of the end of the recession or just a blip in the market? Are we on the right track or will we have the lost decade that Japan had? Thoughts?

Stock market indexes aren't necessarily good indicators of the underlying economy. Technically the recession in the US ended in mid-2009 but the economy was basically flat for a year after that. It does seem now that most indicators are finally starting to show some sustained growth. Unfortunately unemployment is lagging:

[TheNiche]

Stock market indexes aren't necessarily good indicators of the underlying economy. Technically the recession in the US ended in mid-2009 but the economy was basically flat for a year after that. It does seem now that most indicators are finally starting to show some sustained growth. Unfortunately unemployment is lagging:

Interesting that after 1981, recessions (as measured by unemployment) were much further in between but whether minor or major, the amount of time required to feel their full effects or to recover from them has been longer.

Makes you wonder what caused this structural change to the economy. With increasingly more readily available and less expensive financial information, it would seem counter-intuitive.

[Subdude]

Interesting that after 1981, recessions (as measured by unemployment) were much further in between but whether minor or major, the amount of time required to feel their full effects or to recover from them has been longer.

Makes you wonder what caused this structural change to the economy. With increasingly more readily available and less expensive financial information, it would seem counter-intuitive.

I suspect the change was in part because the US had a more industrial-based economy back then, and industry tended to rebound quickly after recessions.

[TheNiche]

I suspect the change was in part because the US had a more industrial-based economy back then, and industry tended to rebound quickly after recessions.

It's not just about the time required to rebound. Did the "industrial-based economy" also cause more frequent recessions, in your opinion?

[Subdude]

It's not just about the time required to rebound. Did the "industrial-based economy" also cause more frequent recessions, in your opinion?

No, I wouldn't have a theory one way or another on the frequency of recessions.