Hurricane Felix

[dalparadise]

We should imagine all kinds of scenarios and place probabilities upon them. Perhaps the worst case scenario would basically wipe you out, but has a 0.2% chance of happening in any given year. Is that what someone should plan accordingly for? I say no. Preparations should match what is realistically possible, and history is a very good indicator of that.

My point was basically the "pick your poison" issue that Red pointed out. While it is not impossible for a strong hurricane to stall out right on top of you, creating that worst-case scenario you envisioned, it is so unlikely that it really isn't worth serious consideration for most people. And YES, I'm going to say MOST people because that is reality. If I lived along Vince Bayou, just on the north side of 225, in Pasadena, I'd consider it. If I lived in the Brays Bayou flood plain in Bellaire, I wouldn't.

The world isn't so simple as just yes or no, do this or do that. Probability distributions abound, and qualifiers are important.

...which is exactly what I meant when I said, "We should imagine the worst-case scenario so we can plan accordingly and change those plans as the outcome deviates from that worse-case scenario."

[ricco67]

I have a hurricane-preparedness question for everyone: how to board up windows? The house I'm in now is nearly 100 years old and solid, but has a ton of mostly original windows. Assuming I'm staying put if something major headed through SE Houston, what's the best way-- nailing up sheets of plywood? I've already taken care of the trees, and always stay supplied for power outages. But the window thing -- I need a plan just in case.

Shouldn't you have been thinking about this...like oh....say March or April?

[dalparadise]

Wind guages during Alicia showed that only a few places in far south Houston even received hurricane force winds, much less Cat 2 or 3. However, that proves your point even more, since Houston sustained such widespread damage with only high tropical storm force winds. Add in the fact that the Houston area has received so much rain in the last 3 months (I have received 36 inches since June 1), and even a minimal hurricane could be devastating. One must also consider the "pick your poison" scenario. Strong hurricanes tend to drop less rain, while weaker storms tend to drop more rain.

Well, even IAH experienced gusts (not sustained) of hurricane-force winds. Alicia was a wierd one, because it exhibited a "double eye" at landfall, producing some of its highest winds and rainfall on its "weak" western side. The sustained winds at Hobby were, as you say, a Cat 1 velocity. However, gusts up to the upper levels of Cat 2, almost Cat 3 were measured at Hobby. I know that sustained winds are the measure of a hurricane's force, but it doesn't make those gusts any less destructive. I also believe that a 94 kt. wind gust will rip the roof off a lot of houses built in the last 20 years.

The bottom line to all of this is as you say-- for Houston proper, it's all about flooding. A slow moving storm, big or small, can devastate Houston with 20' inches of rain in an already saturated condition. For the metropolitan area down 45 south, a big Hurricane is a wind and storm surge problem. The way the bay comes up all the way to East Houston, that could be a big deal for a lot of people -- roughly the population equivilent of Fort Worth. Alicia hit on Galveston Island. Farther South, around Freeport and a bigger storm could mean destruction like we've never imagined.

I plan to be ready to act responsibly, regardless of what "The Niche" says.

EDIT: I just found this:

http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdata/A...meteorology.htm

Interesting.

[TheNiche]

...which is exactly what I meant when I said, "We should imagine the worst-case scenario so we can plan accordingly and change those plans as the outcome deviates from that worse-case scenario."

But I would disagree because planing in accordance with the worst-case scenario can easily go overboard. Especially where building codes and big public investments in things like dikes, seawalls, etc. are concerned. In many matters, there is not the practical luxury of being able to sit and wait until the storm comes along that definitely justifies those things, but building it now for a storm that may only come once every 500 years is just ridiculous.

[ricco67]

Well, even IAH experienced gusts (not sustained) of hurricane-force winds. Alicia was a wierd one, because it exhibited a "double eye" at landfall, producing some of its highest winds and rainfall on its "weak" western side. The sustained winds at Hobby were, as you say, a Cat 1 velocity. However, gusts up to the upper levels of Cat 2, almost Cat 3 were measured at Hobby. I know that sustained winds are the measure of a hurricane's force, but it doesn't make those gusts any less destructive. I also believe that a 94 kt. wind gust will rip the roof off a lot of houses built in the last 20 years.

The bottom line to all of this is as you say-- for Houston proper, it's all about flooding. A slow moving storm, big or small, can devastate Houston with 20' inches of rain in an already saturated condition. For the metropolitan area down 45 south, a big Hurricane is a wind and storm surge problem. The way the bay comes up all the way to East Houston, that could be a big deal for a lot of people -- roughly the population equivilent of Fort Worth. Alicia hit on Galveston Island. Farther South, around Freeport and a bigger storm could mean destruction like we've never imagined.

I plan to be ready to act responsibly, regardless of what "The Niche" says.

EDIT: I just found this:

http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdata/A...meteorology.htm

Interesting.

Storm landing location is also important.

if it makes landfall South of (or WEST as some people call it) of Galveston, We're going to get the "dirty" side of it. If it goes to the North of (or EAST) of Galveston, we're going to be relatively okay, in Houston Proper.

That's one way to gauge as to what to do. Again, be informed in the action you take. Being chicken little just makes you into a timewaster.

[dalparadise]

But I would disagree because planing in accordance with the worst-case scenario can easily go overboard. Especially where building codes and big public investments in things like dikes, seawalls, etc. are concerned. In many matters, there is not the practical luxury of being able to sit and wait until the storm comes along that definitely justifies those things, but building it now for a storm that may only come once every 500 years is just ridiculous.

Dear genius,

The context of this particular discussion is what we should do as individuals to prepare for a hurricane -- whether we should evacuate or not, specifically. So, if you think it's ridiculous to keep a gas tank full in case I'm ordered to evacuate or to stock a little extra food and water in case of a power outage when a hurricane enters the Gulf, then so be it.

[dalparadise]

Storm landing location is also important.

if it makes landfall South of (or WEST as some people call it) of Galveston, We're going to get the "dirty" side of it. If it goes to the North of (or EAST) of Galveston, we're going to be relatively okay, in Houston Proper.

That's one way to gauge as to what to do. Again, be informed in the action you take. Being chicken little just makes you into a timewaster.

Point one -- I am certainly not being a "Chicken Little". I'm not calling for panic. In fact, quite the opposite.

Point two -- coming into a discussion without first reading the previous posts, then restating a point made by the person you're attempting to "call out" for being a time waster is the height of irony.

[jfre81]

My wife and I went to Fiesta earlier to stock up on a little more stuff....we've been building an inventory steadily over the spring and summer. Better today than when the panic really sets in.

My shelter under the Astrodome is airtight

[TheNiche]

Dear genius,

The context of this particular discussion is what we should do as individuals to prepare for a hurricane -- whether we should evacuate or not, specifically. So, if you think it's ridiculous to keep a gas tank full in case I'm ordered to evacuate or to stock a little extra food and water in case of a power outage when a hurricane enters the Gulf, then so be it.

Is installing a higher-rated garage door or window shutters not an act undertaken by an individual for the purposes of hurricane preparation? Or if you live in a coastal area, having a home on stilts? Or having more insurance coverage than required by your mortgage lender? Isn't it rather short-sighted to limit this discussion to what can or should be done as the hurricane bears down upon you?

[dalparadise]

Is installing a higher-rated garage door or window shutters not an act undertaken by an individual for the purposes of hurricane preparation? Or if you live in a coastal area, having a home on stilts? Or having more insurance coverage than required by your mortgage lender? Isn't it rather short-sighted to limit this discussion to what can or should be done as the hurricane bears down upon you?

Are you my ex-wife? Because I swear to holy God that she is the only other person I've ever known who liked to argue about nothing as much as you do. You even flip sides of an argument to keep it going. It isn't interesting.

I have some stockpiling to do...

[RedScare]

Well, even IAH experienced gusts (not sustained) of hurricane-force winds. Alicia was a wierd one, because it exhibited a "double eye" at landfall, producing some of its highest winds and rainfall on its "weak" western side. The sustained winds at Hobby were, as you say, a Cat 1 velocity. However, gusts up to the upper levels of Cat 2, almost Cat 3 were measured at Hobby. I know that sustained winds are the measure of a hurricane's force, but it doesn't make those gusts any less destructive. I also believe that a 94 kt. wind gust will rip the roof off a lot of houses built in the last 20 years.

The bottom line to all of this is as you say-- for Houston proper, it's all about flooding. A slow moving storm, big or small, can devastate Houston with 20' inches of rain in an already saturated condition. For the metropolitan area down 45 south, a big Hurricane is a wind and storm surge problem. The way the bay comes up all the way to East Houston, that could be a big deal for a lot of people -- roughly the population equivilent of Fort Worth. Alicia hit on Galveston Island. Farther South, around Freeport and a bigger storm could mean destruction like we've never imagined.

I plan to be ready to act responsibly, regardless of what "The Niche" says.

EDIT: I just found this:

http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdata/A...meteorology.htm

Interesting.

Agreed, that wind gusts can be damaging, as can micro-bursts that are much higher than sustained windspeeds. I believe that article you linked was the source of my statement that few locations in Houston sustained hurricane force winds. But, lesser winds can uproot trees, or in Downtown's case, make rooftop gravel into shotgun blasts. Even City codes requiring 115 mph construction only require structures to withstand 3 second bursts of 115 mph wind...hardly sustained.

[TheNiche]

Are you my ex-wife? Because I swear to holy God that she is the only other person I've ever known who liked to argue about nothing as much as you do. You even flip sides of an argument to keep it going. It isn't interesting.

I have some stockpiling to do...

Probably not, unless I have amnesia, was previously gay and you are gay.

You even flip sides of an argument to keep it going. It isn't interesting.

No I didn't.

[ricco67]

Point one -- I am certainly not being a "Chicken Little". I'm not calling for panic. In fact, quite the opposite.

Point two -- coming into a discussion without first reading the previous posts, then restating a point made by the person you're attempting to "call out" for being a time waster is the height of irony.

Dal, I wasn't refering to you in either case, and made the mistake of not directing it to the person originally intended for. Just because a post immediately follows yours, doesn't mean that it's directed towards you. It was my assumption that veteran HAIFers would have figured that out by now.

[dalparadise]

Dal, I wasn't refering to you in either case, and made the mistake of not directing it to the person originally intended for. Just because a post immediately follows yours, doesn't mean that it's directed towards you. It was my assumption that veteran HAIFers would have figured that out by now.

It wasn't that you merely followed my post. You quoted it.

It is my assumption that veteran HAIFers would have figured out how to direct their commentary to the intended posters by now.

No harm done, though.

[Original Timmy Chan's]

EDIT: I just found this:

http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdata/A...meteorology.htm

Interesting.

Very interesting data. It's good data to use as a means of comparison for the future.

Alicia hit on my 10th birthday, so my memories of it are limited to losing power, listening to howling winds and going out to check out the eerie calm (and green skies) as the eye of the storm passed over us.

We lived between Ellington AFB and Hobby Airport. According to the link, we experienced average wind speeds between 55 - 80 mph, and peak gusts of 80 - 107 mph (based on measurements at those two airfields).

As I recall, there was significant roof damage to our neighborhood...most people lost at least a few shingles, some lost a little bit of roof, and I believe there were a few homes that lost significant parts of their roofs. I don't think there was any structural damage other than roofs...probably a lot of tree limbs too.

I don't know for certain whether we had tornados through our neighborhood, but I know they had them in Friendswood and Pearland, which were a few miles due south of our neighborhood. Could explain why the damage was so random through the neighborhood.

For me, personally, it's a very good comparison to know what a Category 3 hurricane can do less than 40 miles inland. I've always been curious about the wind speeds once the hurricane hit land.

[KatieDidIt]

I think the inland people (Loop West and North) should be more concerned about Lootie and the Katrina Crew when the power goes down for days than the actual storm. I think the potential chaos, personal injury and fear they will cause will be greater than the wind damage.

Personally, if its a Cat 3 or greater we will pack up the kids and dogs and go. We don't want to be here without power for weeks like Alicia left this area in the 80's. Not to mention, the apartments 5 miles away are still hosting some of New Orleans finest felons. If they want our crap that bad, they can have it...we won't be here.

[VicMan]

The 2005 article about Hurricane Katrina mentioned that many New Orleans evacuees were taken by police: http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_2_houston.html

"Confronting New Orleans

[musicman]

Agreed, that wind gusts can be damaging, as can micro-bursts that are much higher than sustained windspeeds. I believe that article you linked was the source of my statement that few locations in Houston sustained hurricane force winds. But, lesser winds can uproot trees, or in Downtown's case, make rooftop gravel into shotgun blasts. Even City codes requiring 115 mph construction only require structures to withstand 3 second bursts of 115 mph wind...hardly sustained.

Red i nominate you to be the next weatherman on ch 2. i'm sure you'll last longer than the last several have.

[EatSleepMOD]

We are currently in intermission between Acts I and II of *Premature Hurricane Panic*

When Dean was out where Felix was I was reading people from northwest Houston talking about leaving already. These people learned nothing from Rita.

I really would like everyone who wants to panic to leave town, and not come back. These people are a burden in an emergency situation and the people who died in the evacuation can thank these inland-dwelling cowards for it. Don't leave unless you have to.

Brewster McCloud for Govenor!

It never hurts to be prepared for the worst,

but please, just say no to "premature hurricane panic."

[jm1fd]

LMAO! That was a good one. Thank You.

You're welcome. Glad you liked it. I was trying to poke fun at the amateur forecasters and media who make half-assed wild-ass predictions as to where these storms will make landfall.

[plumber2]

My house in Santa Fe was one year old when hurricane Alicia struck. The eye came ashore at San Luis Pass and passed just to the west of us going inland. We are situated about 12 to 15 miles from West Bay as the crow flies. We lost one shingle but had wind driven rain come through the aluminum frame windows. I would guess we had 110 mph plus sustained winds for at least an hour. We tried keeping up with the water coming through the window frames but lost it as the eye moved to the west and north of us. That is when the wind shifted quickly, our west facing patio door was getting wind driven rain directly against it then. The carpet got soaked thouroghly in that room.

I am confident we had 110 mph winds in Santa Fe because I had been in Brownsville during hurricane Allen three years before and we had 100 mph winds at Sunrise Mall (Expressway 83 & FM 502). That event was still fresh in my mind.

I will leave in a Cat 4 or 5 storm rest assured. But the idea that all structures south of 610 will have thier roofs blown away is just not true. The eye has to be close by for that type of damage to occur.