Hurricane Felix

[RedScare]

Well, Felix is now a Cat 1 hurricane, and the 5 day forecast has it curving northward.

Felix 5 Day Projection

If it took it's furthest northerly track, Houston would be in its path. Tomorrow should be more telling, as it is still too far away to accurately predict.

Stay tuned.

[TheNiche]

I predict that it will make landfall as a Category 3 storm in Belize on Wednesday evening.

[jm1fd]

I predict that it will make landfall at the Cinnabon at Willowbrook mall as a category .75.

[KatieDidIt]

I predict that it will make landfall at the Cinnabon at Willowbrook mall as a category .75.

LMAO! That was a good one. Thank You.

[RedScare]

Holy Cow! This thing grew fast! A day and a half ago, it was barely a tropical storm. Today, it is a Cat 4 monster. While Belize is not looking good, Eric Berger says that the National Hurricane Center sounds concerned that it could swing north once it crosses the Yucatan.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

[Trae]

I'm not worried right now.

[jfre81]

We are currently in intermission between Acts I and II of *Premature Hurricane Panic*

When Dean was out where Felix was I was reading people from northwest Houston talking about leaving already. These people learned nothing from Rita.

I really would like everyone who wants to panic to leave town, and not come back. These people are a burden in an emergency situation and the people who died in the evacuation can thank these inland-dwelling cowards for it. Don't leave unless you have to.

[westguy]

Four days ago this thing was just a puffy cloud. It looks like it will be another category 5 monster, perhaps this evening.

[plumber2]

I agree Brewster. Before Rita, after securing my wife's business in Galveston and boarding up our houses on the mainland, we were met on the freeway by all those people from Houston who did not need to evacuate, but felt compeled to get in our way and stay in our way for 40 plus hours ..........all the way to Brenham. We are not stupid, and we will evacuate again if another category 4 or 5 hurricane aims our way. But please, all of you people 50 miles inland are not at risk. Keep your asses out of our way.

[TheNiche]

I agree Brewster. Before Rita, after securing my wife's business in Galveston and boarding up our houses on the mainland, we were met on the freeway by all those people from Houston who did not need to evacuate, but felt compeled to get in our way and stay in our way for 40 plus hours ..........all the way to Brenham. We are not stupid, and we will evacuate again if another category 4 or 5 hurricane aims our way. But please, all of you people 50 miles inland are not at risk. Keep your asses out of our way.

Good god, you were on the road that long? I was one of the inland dolts that you and Brewster speak of, only I was leaving town primarily to take advantage of the time off of work to go backpacking at the Devil's River SNA. But it only took four hours to make it from within Houston to Austin, mostly on FM and county roads, about half of them unpaved. Aside from a few cars following me and a couple deer, there was no traffic where I was. You guys need to stay off the roads that your elected dolts say are evacuation routes and use your own judgement.

[dalparadise]

We are currently in intermission between Acts I and II of *Premature Hurricane Panic*

When Dean was out where Felix was I was reading people from northwest Houston talking about leaving already. These people learned nothing from Rita.

I really would like everyone who wants to panic to leave town, and not come back. These people are a burden in an emergency situation and the people who died in the evacuation can thank these inland-dwelling cowards for it. Don't leave unless you have to.

But don't NOT LEAVE if you should -- just do it when you should.

A CAT 4-5 storm hitting Freeport or just north of there represents a catastrophic scenario for Brazoria, Galveston and Southeastern Harris Counties. Even as far inland as Sugar Land, in Ft. Bend County might see wind speeds strong enough to substantially damage homes. During Rita, the town of Silsbee, some 65-70 miles inland had homes with roofs blown off, as the eye wall passed directly over it as a CAT 3.

A Freeport landfall could cause a storm surge in Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel, similar to the one that originally flooded New Orleans in Katrina, leading to the failures of the levees there that drained Lake Pontchartrain into the city. We don't face a similar residual flooding scenario, but if the storm surge backed up into the bayous, flooding them, then the the storm tracked north, flooding rivers upstream, you could be looking at 3-4 days of dangerous flood conditions, similar to Allison.

The initial storm surge flooding could devastate everything from Galveston to the Loop, along I-45, from the shoreline to about a mile west of the freeway. That's 150 square miles or so of flooding and probably close to 300,000 people displaced. The wind damage would be more widespread. Alicia proved that the coastline is not as good a windbreak as we may have thought, as CAT 2-3 strength winds made it as far north as The Heights and White Oak Bayou flooded the area for the first time in just about anybody's memory in 1983.

No -- don't panic. Don't take it too lightly, either. If you live south of the South Loop and the predicted landfall of a 4-5 storm looks like it will strike somewhere south of you, you should evacuate as directed, during the allotted times. A place like Montgomery County, or West, out I-10 should be fine. If you live North of the South Loop and South of Beltway 8, you should probably board-up windows and stock enough food and water for 4-5 days without electricity or water. If you live close to a bayou, you should probably consider evacuating with the coastal people.

Now, in less than a CAT 4, only people within about a 5-10 mile radius of the path, up to 20-30 miles inland probably need to evacuate. The rest can probably ride it out just fine with the proper provisions.

Of course, there is that little problem of unpredictable paths...

[westguy]

The crawl on the television says Felix is a category 5 hurricane now.

We can't know the true intensity. The hurricane hunters sent in to investigate had to abort the mission.

[westguy]

I'll do this for Otto:

000

WTNT41 KNHC 022359

TCDAT1

HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX

HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT

REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS

OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND

IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN

CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A

SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.

BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT

LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB

WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND

GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING

ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND

FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING

MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE

SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT

12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT

24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT

36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT

48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT

72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT

96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT

120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

163 knots = 190 mph

[TheNiche]

A Freeport landfall could cause a storm surge in Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel, similar to the one that originally flooded New Orleans in Katrina, leading to the failures of the levees there that drained Lake Pontchartrain into the city. We don't face a similar residual flooding scenario, but if the storm surge backed up into the bayous, flooding them, then the the storm tracked north, flooding rivers upstream, you could be looking at 3-4 days of dangerous flood conditions, similar to Allison.

The initial storm surge flooding could devastate everything from Galveston to the Loop, along I-45, from the shoreline to about a mile west of the freeway. That's 150 square miles or so of flooding and probably close to 300,000 people displaced. The wind damage would be more widespread. Alicia proved that the coastline is not as good a windbreak as we may have thought, as CAT 2-3 strength winds made it as far north as The Heights and White Oak Bayou flooded the area for the first time in just about anybody's memory in 1983.

The scenario that you outlined is highly unlikely. While it is true that storm surge would cause the bayous to be blocked, a hurricane large enough to have that effect would likely be moving fast enough so that the surge would not last long enough, the rain would not be falling long enough to saturate the ground or for the effect to be comparable to Allison. Once the storm had passed us, the waters would drain rapidly because there just wouldn't really be all that much water.

For the inland folks, the greatest concerns should be high winds, poor construction, lawn furniture, and weak tree limbs.

[westguy]

Just realized it was Felix that Cat (5)

[RedScare]

For the inland folks, the greatest concerns should be high winds, poor construction, lawn furniture, and weak tree limbs.

Don't forget improperly secured pink flamingos.

For those of you who do not understand meteorologist-speak, I have provided a translation below.

[jfre81]

And once again everyone will pile onto the freeways and leave the backroads deserted. I lived in Alvin at the time of Rita, and made it to Spring (Louetta @ Ella) in two hours early Thursday morning that week.

Sometimes ignorance and panic is beneficial to the rest of us

[Trae]

Why is everybody about to ____ in their pants? Felix is way out there right now.

[TheNiche]

Why is everybody about to ____ in their pants? Felix is way out there right now.

Even if the probability of our area sustaining hurricane force winds is, say 2%, that is big news. If there were only $100 billion in damage to real property, 2% of that is $2 billion. On top of that, it would pretty effectively divert most tradesmen away from building homes and commercial structures to do lucrative insurance-paid repair work. It would basically cause construction projects under way throughout the region to grind to a halt. And then there are all the offshore rigs, the petrochemical plants, the possibility of dredged waterways being blocked, and of course the less tangible cost of an evacuation, temporary housing, and ultimately relocation. This is nothing to sneeze at, even early on.

And I would dare to imagine that our homes aren't built nearly as well as those in Florida and other gulf states that get hit more frequently. Any major storm has the very real and distinct potential to be worse than Hurricane Andrew.

[crunchtastic]

I have a hurricane-preparedness question for everyone: how to board up windows? The house I'm in now is nearly 100 years old and solid, but has a ton of mostly original windows. Assuming I'm staying put if something major headed through SE Houston, what's the best way-- nailing up sheets of plywood? I've already taken care of the trees, and always stay supplied for power outages. But the window thing -- I need a plan just in case.

[TheNiche]

I have a hurricane-preparedness question for everyone: how to board up windows? The house I'm in now is nearly 100 years old and solid, but has a ton of mostly original windows. Assuming I'm staying put if something major headed through SE Houston, what's the best way-- nailing up sheets of plywood? I've already taken care of the trees, and always stay supplied for power outages. But the window thing -- I need a plan just in case.

It's pretty simple, really.

Link

[jfre81]

Even if the probability of our area sustaining hurricane force winds is, say 2%, that is big news. If there were only $100 billion in damage to real property, 2% of that is $2 billion. On top of that, it would pretty effectively divert most tradesmen away from building homes and commercial structures to do lucrative insurance-paid repair work. It would basically cause construction projects under way throughout the region to grind to a halt. And then there are all the offshore rigs, the petrochemical plants, the possibility of dredged waterways being blocked, and of course the less tangible cost of an evacuation, temporary housing, and ultimately relocation. This is nothing to sneeze at, even early on.

And I would dare to imagine that our homes aren't built nearly as well as those in Florida and other gulf states that get hit more frequently. Any major storm has the very real and distinct potential to be worse than Hurricane Andrew.

Correct. This is something that has had the potential to happen for a long time. Just like New Orleans.

But the panic and the every-man-for-himself mentality is not helping anyone at all.

[crunchtastic]

ah, ok. pretty much what I was thinking. Not as if there's gonna be time for special engineering in that situation. Buy wood, attach to house. What's 'marine' plywood ?

[RedScare]

Marine plywood is outdoor plywood. It can get wet (say, in a hurricane) and not fall apart.

[TheNiche]

ah, ok. pretty much what I was thinking. Not as if there's gonna be time for special engineering in that situation. Buy wood, attach to house. What's 'marine' plywood ?

The kind that's been treated to resist rotting in very high humidity. It also is stronger and is more structurally consistent throughout. If you were in a 100-year flood plain or right up against a body of water, I'd recommend it. But you're in Eastwood. For these purposes, it may be overkill IMO on account of that it'll only have to stand up to the elements for a short while.

[dalparadise]

The scenario that you outlined is highly unlikely. While it is true that storm surge would cause the bayous to be blocked, a hurricane large enough to have that effect would likely be moving fast enough so that the surge would not last long enough, the rain would not be falling long enough to saturate the ground or for the effect to be comparable to Allison. Once the storm had passed us, the waters would drain rapidly because there just wouldn't really be all that much water.

For the inland folks, the greatest concerns should be high winds, poor construction, lawn furniture, and weak tree limbs.

Terms like "highly unlikely," "likely be moving fast enough" and "really wouldn't be all that much water" are precisely the kinds of statements that fuel the doubt and insanity.

We should imagine the worst-case scenario so we can plan accordingly and change those plans as the outcome deviates from that worse-case scenario. I believe most homes in this area are built to withstand up to 110 mph winds. That seems pretty simple. If the forecast is for greater than 110mph to pass over your home and your home is your intended shelter, you should leave. If you know you are prone to flooding -- and recent years should be good indicators -- you should leave. Don't do it in a panic. Don't ignore evacuation orders. Don't go out of sequence. And don't talk out of your ass about what is "highly unlikely". Some of the worst disasters in history were highly unlikely.

We should be adults, act like adults, plan like adults and execute those plans like adults. Playing the odds and hoping that the "highly unlikely" won't happen here is just foolish. After all, the entire Allison event was "highly unlikely," as she wasn't even a hurricane, wasn't it?

[RedScare]

The wind damage would be more widespread. Alicia proved that the coastline is not as good a windbreak as we may have thought, as CAT 2-3 strength winds made it as far north as The Heights and White Oak Bayou flooded the area for the first time in just about anybody's memory in 1983.

Wind guages during Alicia showed that only a few places in far south Houston even received hurricane force winds, much less Cat 2 or 3. However, that proves your point even more, since Houston sustained such widespread damage with only high tropical storm force winds. Add in the fact that the Houston area has received so much rain in the last 3 months (I have received 36 inches since June 1), and even a minimal hurricane could be devastating. One must also consider the "pick your poison" scenario. Strong hurricanes tend to drop less rain, while weaker storms tend to drop more rain.

[TheNiche]

Terms like "highly unlikely," "likely be moving fast enough" and "really wouldn't be all that much water" are precisely the kinds of statements that fuel the doubt and insanity.

We should imagine the worst-case scenario so we can plan accordingly and change those plans as the outcome deviates from that worse-case scenario. I believe most homes in this area are built to withstand up to 110 mph winds. That seems pretty simple. If the forecast is for greater than 110mph to pass over your home and your home is your intended shelter, you should leave. If you know you are prone to flooding -- and recent years should be good indicators -- you should leave. Don't do it in a panic. Don't ignore evacuation orders. Don't go out of sequence. And don't talk out of your ass about what is "highly unlikely". Some of the worst disasters in history were highly unlikely.

We should be adults, act like adults, plan like adults and execute those plans like adults. Playing the odds and hoping that the "highly unlikely" won't happen here is just foolish. After all, the entire Allison event was "highly unlikely," as she wasn't even a hurricane, wasn't it?

We should imagine all kinds of scenarios and place probabilities upon them. Perhaps the worst case scenario would basically wipe you out, but has a 0.2% chance of happening in any given year. Is that what someone should plan accordingly for? I say no. Preparations should match what is realistically possible, and history is a very good indicator of that.

My point was basically the "pick your poison" issue that Red pointed out. While it is not impossible for a strong hurricane to stall out right on top of you, creating that worst-case scenario you envisioned, it is so unlikely that it really isn't worth serious consideration for most people. And YES, I'm going to say MOST people because that is reality. If I lived along Vince Bayou, just on the north side of 225, in Pasadena, I'd consider it. If I lived in the Brays Bayou flood plain in Bellaire, I wouldn't.

The world isn't so simple as just yes or no, do this or do that. Probability distributions abound, and qualifiers are important.

[RedScare]

For those who like cool superstorm satelite photos....

[RedScare]

Also, for those who wish to figure out just how far inland you really are, here is a surface distance calculator, using latitude and longitude.

Surface Distance Calculator

My house near 10th Street in the Heights, is about 61.5 miles inland from Freeport. A direct hit on Houston would likely come ashore somewhere near Freeport. Pasadena or Baytown would get hit with a Galveston hit. Katy would probably come ashore between Freeport and Matagorda.

Latitude/Longitude

Galveston 29.29N/94.79W

Freeport 28.88N/95.37W

Matagorda 28.79N/95.88W