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toxtethogrady

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Posts posted by toxtethogrady

  1. The thing that's been interesting about this project lately is all the history they are "rediscovering", like the cistern and the Donnellann Crypt. I wonder if there are any other surprises out there waiting to be found. 

    With luck they will discover the English "black earth" graves that are located under the old Cenikor parking lot.

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  2. I did notice that 610 at I-10 interchange has grown up and is looking much better. I just really think the landscaping softens the harshness of the stark concrete, hides some of the ugly feeder minutia, and makes for a much more enjoyable drive.

     

    Northern Virginia did a good job with I-66, the Dulles Toll Road and the Beltway in terms of using trees for screening, placing climbing vegetation on the noise walls and actively trying to hide concrete. In addition, there appear to be restrictions that prevent billboards on any of the main highways between Fairfax County and the Potomac. It all looks good, and the GW Parkway (which the Feds maintain) looks great. 

  3. Went to see if Greater Houston Partnership Published the November Report yet. Not yet, but the latest figures show Houston has over $25 Billion in construction this year through Sep vs. only $9 Billion through same period last year. Holy Cow Milo Hamilton and Yesss!!!! Gene Peterson that is a lot! and a heck of a lot of growth!

     

    I'd like to know how that compares to New York, Toronto, Chicago, and Dallas...wondering if we hit number one in North America this year.

     

    http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/EconomicIndicators.pdf

     

    I started looking through the numbers more carefully. It's possible the $25 billion reflects contracts for petrochemical plants. As it is, the permit number for September is stunning - $1.2 billion in one month, which if carried forward would increase the $7 billion annual rate for construction permits to an eye-popping $14 billion (eye-popping, considering $7 billion is itself a record).

     

    The only damper is the price of oil, which dropped below $80 a barrel for WTI. It could imply a slowdown in that 4.3% annual increase in number of jobs. I compared that to the rest of the country (using the BLS numbers), and the percentage increase is one of the highest in the country, even compared to small towns. Tomorrow, there may be problems, but right now, it's a party.

  4.  It's very easy for anyone in Houston to get one of these projects off the ground, so you get a lot of B-class players. A market flooded with good and bad projects is more likely to have cancelled projects. Also, inexperienced developers are more likely to get into trouble before projects are completed.

    In a city like NY or DC, you have much higher barrier of entry. Between low land availability, high prices, zoning, architectural reviews, profers, unions,etc...only top experienced developers play the game, and it's less likely that projects get cancelled.

     

    NY has had its share of proposals that never got to fruition (just check SkyscraperPage). Even the WTC got into financial trouble.

     

    What seems to get projects built is developers who have their money lined up and don't have to worry about presales or financing. That's why the Skanska project is likely to get built, whereas outfits like Peloton get stopped before they start.

     

    For whatever reason, Manhattan is proving fertile ground for residential 1,000-footers. Houston is now getting quite a few projects that are 40 stories of residential. An economy that generates 100,000 jobs a year will support that. I'm still not seeing how Dallas can find tenants for two supertalls, but Ross Perot, Jr. is behind one of them, so it could get built (the other one is probably not going to get out of the starting gate). 

  5. And you base that on what exactly?

     

    Edens is swooping in from out of town (just like Regency was going to do). Uptown is probably not the only property they own or are developing, and their priorities may be different from those of AmREIT. That alone means the full $1.2 billion project may be more of an investment than they would want to commit to. So I see revisions coming and at the least a re-timing of the developments.

     

    On the positive side, I think Edens offers deeper pockets to support whatever AmREIT had planned to build.

  6. I can remember when that Dillard's was a Joske's. If there were a way to connect to the Galleria, that would make a whole lot of sense.

     

    As for how Zone D'Erotica got that corner, I would imagine it must be making all kinds of money; otherwise the landlord would have raised the rent to something prohibitive and tried to redevelop those pad sites.

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