Hurricane Ike

[HtownWxBoy]

Mine was blank until just a minute ago. Now, it is showing up, rendering my joke rather awkward.

I was listening to a forecaster on the way home. In spite of the computer runs going through Brownsville, he said most of the forecasters still believe that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Corpus and SW LA. Apparently, even though most of the computers are not picking it up, they believe that the trough will cause a northern turn, similar to HWRF or UKMET.

That UKMET path would be rather disastrous for Houston.

Yes it's still up in the air whether or not Ike will get picked up or not... one thing to note is that the models for days have been saying it will get picked up and it hasn't yet... so not sure how much faith I have in the ones that continue to hint at that. I would like to see it get picked up to give us some rain and maybe a little wind... I guess we will see.

[Mark F. Barnes]

Be careful what you wish for..............

[PuroAztlan]

Be careful what you wish for..............

No.

[HtownWxBoy]

Speaking w/ some of the Tropical experts I work with... they are seeming to think Brownsville to Victoria... Ike could get pick up right before making landfall... squalls with gusty winds still expected across Houston Friday into Saturday.

[Highway6]

Speaking w/ some of the Tropical experts I work with... they are seeming to think Brownsville to Victoria... Ike could get pick up right before making landfall... squalls with gusty winds still expected across Houston Friday into Saturday.

Not being critical.. just curious... ever since you mentioned the wx in your name.

What's your weather background.. and is your present or former occupation somehow weather-related.

Are you really Dr Neil Frank ?

[20thStDad]

Yeah, but like you said, LA two days ago. It is getting closer to this storm's landfall, so it's crunch time now.

Right, but even the models I was talking about yesterday, tomorrow they will be from 2 days ago too. And will probably point somewhere else. My only point is that based on the previous models, you and others have stated that New Orleans/LA is toast, we are toast, and now we are not toast.

It changes, and we all love to watch it change. I think it's fun. Weather prediction technology will never be able to tell us 7 days out where a storm will make landfall. You just can't model something that is effectively turbulence that accurately. Just be prepared, keep your eye on the progress of its movements, and when it is T minus 2-3 days until landfall be ready to make a decision, depending on how fast it is moving.

[HtownWxBoy]

Not being critical.. just curious... ever since you mentioned the wx in your name.

What's your weather background.. and is your present or former occupation somehow weather-related.

Are you really Dr Neil Frank ?

I'm a Meteorologist... currently work in the private sector here in Houston.... and no, I'm not Neil Frank. ha ha

[Highway6]

Wasn't the official 5 day out predicted landfall for gustav almost dead on... like within 20 miles.

[HtownWxBoy]

Wasn't the official 5 day out predicted landfall for gustav almost dead on... like within 20 miles.

Pretty much... 5 days out the forecast was for the mid Louisiana coast which is where it hit

[CoolBuddy06]

I'm a Meteorologist... currently work in the private sector here in Houston.... and no, I'm not Neil Frank. ha ha

Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

[HtownWxBoy]

After shifting the forecast track further and further to the south, the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 am has now shifted the forecast track a bit back northward bringing landfall near Corpus Christi... will this trend continue?

Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

Ha ha ha... actually Meteorology is a very "gay" profession... don't ask me why... just a lot of gay Meteorologists out there... I work w/ a few others.

[memebag]

Now that someone said it...I long have concluded that you're Frank Billingsley and honestly it has nothing to do with gay. I just link your posts to him. Neil Frank's too old for HAIF. He can't stand the fireworks around here.

Just last night I told the future Mrs. Bag that HtownWxBoy was Frank Billingsley, and it had everything to do with gay.

[HtownWxBoy]

Just last night I told the future Mrs. Bag that HtownWxBoy was Frank Billingsley, and it had everything to do with gay.

Oh good lord. ha ha ha Sorry to disappoint, but I am not Neil Frank or Frank Billingsley. I am 28... they are a bit older than me.

[crunchtastic]

Speaking of gay weathermen, Jim Cantore looked so lonely down in Houma during Gustav, while the other guy was hanging out in the big convetion hotel in NOLA.

[HtownWxBoy]

Speaking of gay weathermen, Jim Cantore looked so lonely down in Houma during Gustav, while the other guy was hanging out in the big convetion hotel in NOLA.

I used to have such a crush on Jim Cantore when I was younger... now I can't stand him... seems like such an egotistical jerk... but I digress. Cantore ALWAYS goes where the most action will be... they don't call him "Storm Chaser Jim Cantore" for nothing.

[Dub]

Good old Houston, always the bridesmaid, never the bride..... Guess i better water the yard this evening????

[HtownWxBoy]

Good old Houston, always the bridesmaid, never the bride..... Guess i better water the yard this evening????

If Ike goes in south of us around Corpus or Victoria and then lifts northward towards Austin we could see a good bit of rain here in Houston since we will be on the "dirty" side of the storm with onshore flow.

[wxman]

Ok, first of all, I have NEVER seen the models shift 500 miles like I saw them shift yesterday. That should be your first clue that the models have no idea what's going on. In my opinion, this is not a south Texas hurricane. I believe the models have under played the approaching trough in the pacific northwest. The UKMET and HWRF show a middle to upper Texas coast strike. I have caught a glance at the newest models (the 12z runs) and the models have once again shifted...this time back north. The models are having a very hard time with timing on the trough and the building ridge. For instance you have the gfdl model (which the hurricane center lives and dies by) that shows south texas. It's twin brother, the HWRF, shows upper texas coast. (throws hands up) It's madness I'm telling you! EVERYBODY needs to prepare for a major hurricane.

[ricco67]

as long as doesn't get TO close to the south of us, I'm okay with that. If it's victoria, we're going to have a bad day.

I've heard several weatherguys commenting that two of the computer models that they have been using have been the most accurate, one of which showed one of the projected routes heading south of galveston. Kinda' made me rethink my shopping tomorrow.

[Jax]

Good analysis wxman - that's exactly what I was thinking. This seems like a very unpredictable storm right now. Maybe after it clears Cuba we'll get a better idea about what it's going to do.

[HtownWxBoy]

The fact that it could turn more towards the north ahead of landfall is what makes things so difficult... you can be forecasting it to go into Corpus, and if it begins to turn to the north just a little earlier then landfall could be near Matagorda Bay or even Freeport... that's the difference between 40-50 mph winds and 120 mph winds.

One thing to remember, also... it seems like more often than not these storms end up going inland just east of where they are forecasted to go inland even 12 hours ahead of landfall (e.g. Rita, Edouard)... taking into account that this storm is forecast to possibly turn towards the north ahead of landfall and the shape of Texas' coast... well, Houston needs to watch this storm closely.

[HtownWxBoy]

Looking at new data coming in... thinking forecast landfall now between Corpus and Matagorda Bay... possibly as early as late Friday evening.

[Mr. Chenevert]

I do not have a WX in my name, nor do I pretend to. However, I have observed that the HWRF model has been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours while the other models have bounced around significantly.

I do not know much about this model (or any of the models), however a consistent model that isnt an outlier, seems like one I would pay particular attention too.

[CasaNova]

Here is the difference between a barely Cat. 3 Hurricane Alicia vs. a Cat 4/5 Carla.

What is disturbing is the surge produced by Carla affecting the lower lying areas such as Freeport, Alvin, Texas City, League City, Pasadena, La Porte, Webster. Not GOOD!!

Hurricane Alicia, August 18, 1983: Alicia was the first hurricane to strike the Continental USA since Allen in 1980. It was the longest period in this century that the U.S. mainland had gone without a hurricane landfall (though tropical storms did hit within that time). Alicia was a small- to medium-size hurricane. It reached a minimal Category 3 status as it hit land. The center of Alicia moved over the Texas coast about 25 miles southwest of Galveston on August 18. Aircraft observations indicated that only a 60 mile section of the coast, extending northeastward from Freeport, Texas, experienced hurricane force winds. Despite its small size, Alicia caused over $2.4 billion in damage (in 1990 dollars).

Hurricane Carla, September 10/11th. 1961: Carla was the largest and most intense Gulf Coast hurricane in decades. On September 8, Carla's center took aim at the Texas coast. By the 9th, Carla's circulation enveloped the entire Gulf of Mexico with fringe effects along all Gulf Coast states. On the 9th, the largest mass evacuation to that date occurred, as an estimated one-half million residents of low coastal areas and islands off Texas and Louisiana were evacuated to higher ground. As the center approached Texas on the 10th, winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicated a central pressure of 931 mb just prior to its striking the coast. Only 46 lost their lives because of early warnings. Severe damage along a wide expanse of the Texas coast was caused by unusually prolonged winds, high tides and flooding from torrential rains. Damage was about $2 billion in 1990 dollars.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/research/...arla/carla.html

Check out the link for a better visiual

http://www.cityofpearland.com/vertical/Sites/{CA80BAF8-A883-4878-AB6D-7FC8DAE7D62E}/uploads/{A83EA47A-FB89-4A1F-879E-27DE98439D74}.PDF

[PapillionWyngs]

The fact that it could turn more towards the north ahead of landfall is what makes things so difficult... you can be forecasting it to go into Corpus, and if it begins to turn to the north just a little earlier then landfall could be near Matagorda Bay or even Freeport... that's the difference between 40-50 mph winds and 120 mph winds.

One thing to remember, also... it seems like more often than not these storms end up going inland just east of where they are forecasted to go inland even 12 hours ahead of landfall (e.g. Rita, Edouard)... taking into account that this storm is forecast to possibly turn towards the north ahead of landfall and the shape of Texas' coast... well, Houston needs to watch this storm closely.

I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

I do not have a WX in my name, nor do I pretend to. However, I have observed that the HWRF model has been pretty consistent over the past 24 hours while the other models have bounced around significantly.

I do not know much about this model (or any of the models), however a consistent model that isnt an outlier, seems like one I would pay particular attention too.

So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

[Poppahop]

South is not necessarily salvation. Carla made landfall in Port O'Connor.

[RedScare]

I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

Who's trying to scare anyone? Perhaps you should take your own advice and calm down. In fact, if talk of hurricanes bothers you, perhaps not reading this thread at all would help.

[RedScare]

For those who enjoy hurricane talk, Jeff Masters has a pretty decent blog on the Weather Underground.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...p;tstamp=200809

[Highway6]

So what does the WX have to do with it? If it means this person is claiming to be a weather expert - we don't know who he is, no credentials to show - why listen to him? Everyone needs to calm down and listen to people who KNOW what they are talking about, not this joker.

Actually, the two people that have wx in their name have both claimed to be meteorologists at one point or another....

And so far they both seem like they know their stuff...

so um yeah.... i'm gonna follow them.. you can stay here with Gustav expert Trae.

[westguy]

I wish everyone would quit trying to scare us,and just listen to what the weather forecasters are saying. It isn't hitting here, it is going South. Period. Now stop it!

Ike has become a giant storm. It will stretch from the Bay of Campeche to Louisiana once it's fully in the Gulf. Its size adds a lot to the surge potential. You are in Zone A, and if it hits just 20-30 miles south of us at Carla's intensity, your home will be under water. I'm not kidding.