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Hurricane Ike

Trae

By Trae
in Hurricane Ike 2008

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westguy

westguy

Posted
Posted

By the way, Masters doesn't mention the depth of the water, and I doubt the computer models can really factor it in. We have a much wider shelf up here than in Port Lavaca, so the surge potential is greater for a storm equally as strong as Carla. The water is plenty warm, so I'm curious to see how a big hurricane responds to it. The little ones (such as Alicia) are really nourished by the shallow water, but will Ike need deep water to sustain itself? It may not even be there long enough for us to find out.

BTW, at hidefrom the wind, everyone's went down, but mine is among the lowest at 65 mph. :P

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RedScare

RedScare

Posted
Posted

Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

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native_Houstonian

native_Houstonian

Posted
Posted
Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

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flipper

flipper

Posted
Posted
Do y'all really think a storm 500 miles across follows the straight line that is printed on those maps? Do you know that at 24 hours out, these storms can land 50 miles to either side of that straight line? Just curious, cuz several of these posts seemed to place great significance in the fact that the 10 pm forecast is 1 to 2 miles east of the 7 pm forecast. 1 to 2 miles...in a storm with a 115 mile wide hurricane wind path.

wait, what? This storm is not 20 pixels wide?

WTH?

BUSH WILL BURN FOR THIS!

flipper

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RedScare

RedScare

Posted
Posted
Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

Oh, OK. I just thought that maybe everyone was rooting for it to go over crunchtastic's house.

Carry on.

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sifuwong

sifuwong

Posted
Posted
Red, I'm very aware that this is a large storm. And I realize that a 10 mile shift to the East does not seem that significant, but I think that we are all hoping and praying that Houston will be on the left or weaker side of the storm, and any indication that the storm is moving more to the East than was expected a few hours ago, gives hope that the devistation to the Greater Houston area will be less than first predicted.

Hey if the winds can keep dropping as the dirty side keeps shifting eastward, all the better.

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editor

editor

Posted
Posted

Ike seems perfectly tame now that I look back at the National Weather Service advisory before Katrina hit:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING

INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

I haven't seen anything about livestock in peril from projectiles in the Ike advisories.

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cottonmather0

cottonmather0

Posted
Posted
Ike seems perfectly tame now that I look back at the National Weather Service advisory before Katrina hit:

I haven't seen anything about livestock in peril from projectiles in the Ike advisories.

ONLY THE BLOOD OF A YOUNG RAM WILL SPARE US

FROM GAIA'S WRATH. THIS IS GOING TO BE MUCH

WORSE THAN THE TIME STEVE BACKED INTO THE

ELECTRIC POLE BEHIND THE GARAGE AND POWER WAS

OUT ALL AFTERNOON AND YOU MISSED THE ROCKETS

GAME ON TV. HAVE YOU EVER DRUNK WARM BEER?

NOT FUN. LIKE WE SAID, HUMAN SUFFERING.

Isn't this his place?

DrunksWithGuns.jpg

I need me one of those signs!

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tmariar

tmariar

Posted
Posted

So this is either something you already know (if you're also up) or something outdated, but... slightly dramatic 1am shift west to previous guidance tracks. Don't think this dashes my hopes and expectations of moving the storm east of us, but I've never been able to figure out how directional shifts in this storm correlate with ultimate landfall odds. Speed has always been the messy factor.

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LarryDallas

LarryDallas

Posted
Posted

KPRC was at their best in fear mongering again late Thursday night when Billingsly said power transformers snap and fail around 70 mph wind speed and it may take weeks before power is back on for most people.

I was a kid when Alicia hit and power came back within 2 days. We lived about 2 miles from the St. Thomas campus at the time and I can clearly recall going to sightsee the Dunlavy overpass on HWY 59 where people were swimming and using small boats in the 5-10 ft of water in the freeway to pass the time when the lights were out. 25 years ago they did not have the technology to find exact locations of power failure as they do now and HL&P was a regulated and much smaller organization than the now deregulated industry which is much larger.

This is the 4th largest city in the US and not having power for weeks would cripple the national economy. I would think the Port/refineries will get top priority but after that it will be the people.

Shame on KPRC again.

As for KTRK, least this time Wayne Dolcefeno was actually on the Gulf with some choppy waves instead of going to the east side and acting like the sub 39 mph winds of Rita were over 100 mph.

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Ralo

Ralo

Posted
Posted
They said they made a mistake with the pressure reading earlier(it's really 953)...turns out now that it could be a category 3 at landfall. They said Ike will be an Alicia, not a Rita. :huh:

don't worry if you wait long enough they will change it back to a 2, and then a 1, and then. . ., etc.

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Rammer

Rammer

Posted
Posted
don't worry if you wait long enough they will change it back to a 2, and then a 1, and then. . ., etc.

You're right, they just changed the pressure back to 956! :huh:

They are obviously having some issues in measuring the science associated with this hurricane.

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RedScare

RedScare

Posted
Posted

Here is the computer model chart for 7 am.

at200809_model_zoom.gif

The good news (for Houstonians) is that the NHC's two favorite models, the GFDL and HWRF, predict a Galveston landfall, with a path running up the west side of Galveston Bay. The bad news would be that the other 4 models predict a more westerly path, either landing at San Luis Pass or Freeport. Suffice to say that with landfall about 18 hours away, "Houston" metro will sustain a direct hit, with winds in the 75 to 100 mph range.

Freeways are empty. Those that want out are pretty free to do so. In other news, the AP is commenting on Houston and Harris County's decision to "stare down" Ike.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike

It would be my hope that after we show that we can do this, that the City and County, with help from state legislators on county building codes, conduct an education campaign on how to retrofit area homes to sustain high winds, so that in future storms people are even more confident in riding them out.

In the meantime, enjoy your day off. I'm going to go mow the grass in my drainage ditch, then kick back and wait.

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houstonmacbro

houstonmacbro

Posted
Posted

8a report:

Okay, I we're watching this news conference with the mayor and all of these city and county officials. They're showing this pier in Galveston that has already been smashed and the storm hasn't even hit; debris from it is scattered along seawall drive. Why is water already smashing over the seawall which I think is about 15' high. Streets in Galveston are already flooding.

I really think this is gonna be bad for certain areas.

NOTE: Fellow Houstonians, be safe!

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